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Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

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Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

gopher wes said:
It's sad that we are even having this conversation at this point of the season....
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Wild's hole is just as big. Both hockey teams look poised for good/great seasons and both teams losing dips went too far and too deep.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

ScoobyDoo said:
Wild's hole is just as big. Both hockey teams look poised for good/great seasons and both teams losing dips went too far and too deep.
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If what Harley posted is true(I'm no PWR mind so I'm taking his word), it's scary to think that the Gophers' tournament fate will likely be in their ability to win the B1G tournament for two reasons. Number one: they couldn't even win it last year with the home ice advantage at the X and this year will be a different story in Detroit. Number two: the last time the Gophers won a conference tournament dates back to 06-07 IIRC so recent history doesn't bode well.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

gopher wes said:
If what Harley posted is true(I'm no PWR mind so I'm taking his word), it's scary to think that the Gophers' tournament fate will likely be in their ability to win the B1G tournament for two reasons. Number one: they couldn't even win it last year with the home ice advantage at the X and this year will be a different story in Detroit. Number two: the last time the Gophers won a conference tournament dates back to 06-07 IIRC so recent history doesn't bode well.
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Good memory Wes, yeah I had to look that up and 06-07 was the last one. Amazingly, the Gophers have not been good in LTs and have only won 3 League tourneys in the last 18 seasons dating all the way back to the Woog days! A postscript to my previous breakdown of the PWR for the Gophers would be a lot of things could happen to get them close to the sweet 16. A win this Friday would bolster their chances quite a bit with a QWB point on top of it.:) But they're in PWR deep water right now.
 
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Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

SJHovey said:
Beating Mankato would bring you guys a nice bump in your pwr. But I'd be interested in knowing the answer to this question. Would your pwr be better off with a win over Mankato Friday, but a loss in one of the two games against Wisconsin the following weekend, or lose to Mankato and sweep Wisconsin the following weekend. This weekend is a good opportunity for your team, but I suspect the two games in Madison are probably more important from a pwr standpoint.
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The games in Madison are more important not to lose. Beating Mankato will have a significant positive effect, losing a fairly insignificant negative (in terms of RPI). And vice-versa for the Badgers. But really, as Harley has pointed out, they need to win all those games.

I think a more interesting question is, if BSU ends up beating Duluth, what would be better for the Gophers?
Tieing Mankato and losing the shootout so they get a chance for a tie against MSU and a win against UMD?
Or beating Mankato and beating the Beavers?


Personally, I'd say any chance you get to lay into a Beaver you should take it....
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

HarleyMC said:
It depends on what other teams do. Sweeping the BADgers next weekend will do little to help this team right now. This weekend's game against the Purple Cows is obviously critical to the Gopher's PWR. But the Gophers shot themselves in the foot early this season with NC losses to UMD, Merrimack, Northeastern, and being swept in Mich. and not sweeping the BADgers last weekend. Regardless of a W or L against MSUM, the Gophers are now skating on thin ice to have any chance of jumping back into the tournament field and DO NOT CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY. As shocking as it may seem, the Gophers could feasibly be eliminated this early in the second half UNLESS we get some major help from other teams. Our win at BC is paying some dividends (1 PWR point against BC) at the present time, but that could be insignificant depending on what BC does this week.

At our current PWR of 18th we are losing comparisons with every team with PWRs of 19-22, which is extremely ominous considering some of their remaining schedules and these teams are now trending to ramp up play for a shot at the postseason. We are winning a comparison with #17 Michigan, but if they sweep the BADgers, we will lose that comparison too. If the Gophers lose on Friday, and several significant PWR teams win...the Gophers RPI will be in the toilet and they're in a world of trouble.

Games to watch this week that have significant PWR implications for the Gophers are BC/Merrimack on Wed., and weekend series: Penn State/Northern Mich., Western Mich./SCSU, Mich./BADgers. Ws for BC, Penn State, Mich. and Western Mich. and Quinnipiac/Brown game next week (most likely Q will destroy Brown) means the Gophers will drop significantly in the PWR and would have to basically win out the rest of their schedule and hope to get help from other teams OR be booted out of the NCAAs for this season.
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There are just a lot of things wrong with this post.

First, of course beating Wisconsin won't help the team's PWR. What it will do is prevent the big dip caused by losing to Wisconsin. For example, I read somewhere that if North Dakota had lost a game to Niagara last weekend their PWR would have dropped to 11 (At 4 currently).

Second, Minnesota clearly controls it's own destiny. That even excludes the obvious control they have over gaining the auto bid by winning the Big 10 tournament.

As Jim Dahl posted a couple of weeks ago, every single season in the last 10 we've seen at least one team come from the 20 range of the PWR to gain an at large bid in the tournament. As I recall, Michigan came from somewhere around 24 or 25 to climb all the way up to around 12 a few years ago, and I think Wisconsin did as well. They can't afford another 3-7 stretch. But they are a long way from being in a position where they either have to win the conference tournament or hope for some magic from other teams.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

Lettieri suspended 1 game for leaving the bench during the altercation at the end of the Saturday night game against the Badgers.
I hadn't even noticed he left the bench. Really bad decision by Vinni there.

So what will Lucia do to fill in for his absence? The first thing that comes to mind is moving Boyd back to center the 3rd line again, as Lettieri was the guy who took his spot. I really hope that isn't what happens. I'm a fan of Boyd playing on either that 1st or 2nd line.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

Stauber1 said:
Lettieri suspended 1 game for leaving the bench during the altercation at the end of the Saturday night game against the Badgers.
I hadn't even noticed he left the bench. Really bad decision by Vinni there.

So what will Lucia do to fill in for his absence? The first thing that comes to mind is moving Boyd back to center the 3rd line again, as Lettieri was the guy who took his spot. I really hope that isn't what happens. I'm a fan of Boyd playing on either that 1st or 2nd line.
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Did the headhunter get a game?
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

Koho said:
Did the headhunter get a game?
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Bristedt gets nailed...Lettieri comes of the bench, gets a game for helping to defend an unacceptable move. The one normally bad outcome a two game suspension against Wittchow...means he's out against our top competition for the league title, Michigan, where many of us will want UW to win. Its just a bad deal overall for us.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

5mn_Major said:
Bristedt gets nailed...Lettieri comes of the bench, gets a game for helping to defend an unacceptable move. The one normally bad outcome a two game suspension against Wittchow...means he's out against our top competition for the league title, Michigan, where many of us will want UW to win. Its just a bad deal overall for us.
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Yep, exactly my thought about him missing their series against Michigan.

Lettieri should be suspended for leaving the bench. Again, just a really bad decision there.
I'm a little surprised Wittchow only got 1 additional game.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

Bonin21 said:
Between Ambroz and Lettieri, I'm fine with one total missed game.
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Ditto, and I support the additional game for Wittchow. Additional suspensions for penalties are rare (or at least it seems like they are rare) in college hockey. Most everyone I have seen were calling for +1, and that's exactly what he got.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

SJHovey said:
There are just a lot of things wrong with this post.

First, of course beating Wisconsin won't help the team's PWR. What it will do is prevent the big dip caused by losing to Wisconsin. For example, I read somewhere that if North Dakota had lost a game to Niagara last weekend their PWR would have dropped to 11 (At 4 currently).

Second, Minnesota clearly controls it's own destiny. That even excludes the obvious control they have over gaining the auto bid by winning the Big 10 tournament.

As Jim Dahl posted a couple of weeks ago, every single season in the last 10 we've seen at least one team come from the 20 range of the PWR to gain an at large bid in the tournament. As I recall, Michigan came from somewhere around 24 or 25 to climb all the way up to around 12 a few years ago, and I think Wisconsin did as well. They can't afford another 3-7 stretch. But they are a long way from being in a position where they either have to win the conference tournament or hope for some magic from other teams.
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I couldn't disagree more with your statement, "But they are a long way from being in a position where they either have to win the conference tournament or hope for some magic from other teams.":D I wonder if you even understand how the system works. I suggest you do the math and then tell me if your statement makes any sense.

Keep in mind this is a snapshot of the PWR at the present time. As I mentioned in another post, this early in the second half there are multiple scenarios that could emerge depending upon what the Gophers do and how other TUC teams perform. No formula can predict college hockey results.

I'll reiterate a few points for clarification. My comment about sweeping the BADgers next weekend was meant to be taken within the context of my entire post. Obviously sweeping the BADgers is going to slightly improve their RPI, but perhaps not enough to overcome what other significant TUC teams playing more quality opponents could do to distance the Gophers chances of climbing back into the tournament field. Moreover, if a team plays a weak opponent and wins, their RPI can still go down because the reduced strength of schedule hurts more than the improved winning percentage helps and that's been the basic problem with the RPI for years. That's why I prefer the KRACH over the PWR.

My post only addresses the current situation in the PWR not the conference tournament. Based upon the calculus (actually the PWR is a regression model) indicating the Gophers currently lose comparisons with PWR 19-22, and the high probability Mich. will sweep the BADgers this weekend and we will lose that comparison to #17 Michigan in addition to the H2H...the Gophers DO NOT control their own destiny. They cannot afford to lose anymore games and because of the negative comparison variate that allows other TUCs to easily plummet the Gophers further down the PWR, they need help from other teams to get back in the tournament field.

Winning against the Purple Cows will significantly bolster their RPI with a weighting factor of 1.0 on neutral ice (.8/home) and slap 5 QWB points on top of it for beating the #1 team in the nation.

Friday night is a MUST WIN for the Gophers. And if they do and happen to face UMD and win, that will wash the H2H, bring in additional QWBs and things may change in the Gophers favor in the PWR.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

HarleyMC said:
I couldn't disagree more with your statement, "But they are a long way from being in a position where they either have to win the conference tournament or hope for some magic from other teams.":D I wonder if you even understand how the system works. I suggest you do the math and then tell me if your statement makes any sense.

Keep in mind this is a snapshot of the PWR at the present time. As I mentioned in another post, this early in the second half there are multiple scenarios that could emerge depending upon what the Gophers do and how other TUC teams perform. No formula can predict college hockey results.

I'll reiterate a few points for clarification. My comment about sweeping the BADgers next weekend was meant to be taken within the context of my entire post. Obviously sweeping the BADgers is going to slightly improve their RPI, but perhaps not enough to overcome what other significant TUC teams playing more quality opponents could do to distance the Gophers chances of climbing back into the tournament field. Moreover, if a team plays a weak opponent and wins, their RPI can still go down because the reduced strength of schedule hurts more than the improved winning percentage helps and that's been the basic problem with the RPI for years. That's why I prefer the KRACH over the PWR.

My post only addresses the current situation in the PWR not the conference tournament. Based upon the calculus (actually the PWR is a regression model) indicating the Gophers currently lose comparisons with PWR 19-22, and the high probability Mich. will sweep the BADgers this weekend and we will lose that comparison to #17 Michigan in addition to the H2H...the Gophers DO NOT control their own destiny. They cannot afford to lose anymore games and because of the negative comparison variate that allows other TUCs to easily plummet the Gophers further down the PWR, they need help from other teams to get back in the tournament field.

Winning against the Purple Cows will significantly bolster their RPI with a weighting factor of 1.0 on neutral ice (.8/home) and slap 5 QWB points on top of it for beating the #1 team in the nation.

Friday night is a MUST WIN for the Gophers. And if they do and happen to face UMD and win, that will wash the H2H, bring in additional QWBs and things may change in the Gophers favor in the PWR.
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LOL

You keep typing that the Gophers do not control their own destiny, like if you type it often enough, and with enough capital letters, it becomes true.

Fine, ignore the playoffs. MN has 16 regular season games left. I guarantee you they go 16-0, and finish the regular season 27-7-2, they are on the right side of the pwr bubble. But of course, we all know they don't even have to do that. But I'll throw a prediction out there. They go 12-4, or maybe 11-3-2 through the end of the regular season, assuming the losses don't come against Wisconsin, or all against OSU, or something like that, they are on the inside looking out when the conference tournament starts.

I agree MN's margin for error has shrunk, but to sit and type the Gophers DO NOT CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY over and over again just feeds your own mass hysteria.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

I agree with Hovey, if we go 12-4, 13-3, even 11-3-2 we make the NCAA tourney.

Just don't lose to becky.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015

He just needs to say they don't control they own destiny with respect to the Pairwise. I'd love confirmation from one of the PWR masters, though.
 
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