mnstate0fhockey
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Re: Minnesota Gophers Offseason Thread 2014 - Quick, Reload!
Good discussions here.
Good discussions here.
Once again, I am not predicting anything. I think you are in too argumentative state to realize I was more trying to draw out the people who jumped all over Lucia for those recruits that left early.
Like when every defenseman on your roster is a draft pick? Has that ever happened before?I will say that I might be more willing to accept recruiting more NHL prospect types on defense. Mainly because I think how well you recruit defensively is what separates the elite programs from the rest.
How did that work out with Patrick White and David Fischer? (And numerous examples of other players at other schools over the years).
You are correct. Lucia and staff were very high on these players and expected a lot more out of them. So they are perfect examples of why the UM staff is always better at picking college players than NHLers. (er, wait...)
Patrick White looked phenomenal in 3 games his Junior year at State. But watching him more after that made me question if he had the speed and ability to be successful in college, much less make the NHL. I had the luxury of seeing him play often. But college coaches can only watch so many games so have to base their decision on an often less than optimal number of games. This is especially true for Europeans.
But to say that an undrafted player should have no less expectation placed on them than one picked in a lower round seems strange to me.
If someone looks at the stats and sees no better performance out of first and second-rounders compared to undrafted players in college, I'll drop it. But I don't think you'll see that relationship. And that stat matters more than a list of outliers.
Wha? You're talking about two guys that were first round picks by the NHLers. First rounders... in other words, the most important choices when building a pro franchise. If anything, the scouting staffs of those NHL teams have more egg on their face.
No doubt every coach misses at times too but the point is your view on the NHL draft being another "data point" to validate a player's worthiness as a college prospect is riddled with flawed thinking.
I guarantee you they see these prospects play a lot more than you seem to be aware of. Over the course on an entire year. Not just the winter.
I'm not sure who is saying that? You are far more caught up on the draft angle. I think the reality is you are overlooking the fact that the NHL looks at different traits when judging players. It is a different game. Far more emphasis on size and physicality. Which often means the undersized guy has his value lessened. Even the small guys who get drafted often get drafted later because of this.
Guess what LeBlanc, Jack Connolly, Miele, Gilroy, Ryan Duncan, Marty Sertich, Lessard, and Sejna all have in common? They all won the Hobey Baker in the last 12 years... and none of them were drafted by an NHL team. 8 of the last 12 winners of the top college player award... undrafted.
I have little doubt there are numerous other examples of undrafted guys outperforming their high pick counterparts (in college) if you bother to research it.
I have no issues with landing some high picks guys. But I also know that in the 3+ decades I have watched college hockey, there have been a lot of guys that didn't fall into that category but were very good college players. Including many undrafted players.
So are you saying there is no correlation between draft status and success in college?
Just that a point people are implying is that the coaches should be trusted completely and any other data (draft results) should be ignored.
I understand the difference in skill sets in the leagues. That is why, with his size, I wouldn't have expected Bredstedt to be taken in an early round even if he is a very special player. I just stated it would give fans more confidence if he were drafted somewhere.
But you also lost another point I made early. If Bredstedt had been drafted, I think his smaller size would likely have meant 3 yrs of seeing him. However, as we have seen with guys like Bickel who are undrafted, if they have a great season, they are probably more likely to grab an NHL offer and jump early then a guy who is drafted and has an opportunity waiting for him when he decides to leave college.
But if there were no correlation between success and high draft picks, why would you even mention draft status?
I'm saying there have been a lot of examples available that prove draft status is meaningless from a college perspective. Not outliers either. But rather commonplace examples. One example is the various Hobey winners I mentioned over the last 12 years who were not even drafted at all. It wasn't one or two examples. But 8 guys out of 12 winners.
Nobody is infallible but I trust coaches whose livelihood revolve around these decisions and they are judging based on what the college game requires. Not what the pro game does.
If you understand the different skillsets, you wouldn't be as caught up on it as much as you are.
As for more confidence, Justin Kloos went undrafted. I never had a doubt he would be an impact college player. Tyler Sheehy went undrafted this year. I have little doubt he'll be a pretty darn good college player too when he finally hits campus.
I agree it is much less likely with a small guy. But I wasn't talking about the odds of him being picked up early. Just that an undrafted player has more incentive to take an offer when presented than a drafted guy. In that way, I AM comparing pears to pears. Not likely to be an issue, but once again, I AM NOT MAKING THE HUGE deal about the draft you seem to think I am. Just another point to make to help pass the summer.Every situation is different but I'd challenge you to find me many 5'9" and smaller guys that sign free agent deals like that after a year or two of college. You picked an apple and oranges example there.
Union had one guy drafted by an NHL team (and he was a 3rd rounder) and they won it all last year.
Many are based on staying longer (which of course a small guy is likely to do) whereas first and second rounders often leave before they reach the level/age to be hobey contenders.
Once again, and again... never said I don't trust coaches nor Pros know better, just that if both college coaches and pro scouts see something special it adds up to better hype than just one.
Was waiting for this one. Look at the average age of those players to most incoming UM players and Bredstedt in particular. Who is the one comparing tomatoes to cucumbers?
Here is the link.
<a href="http://video.panthers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=628248&startTime=60">http://video.panthers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=628248&startTime=60</a>
Yep good to have it finally confirmed. I had spoken with someone really close to the matter about a week and a half ago and had heard he was already planning on coming back before the camp even started.
Actually, my remark is very accurate and you are pretty much stating the same thing I did. Rau has held the same attitude about his future the entire time (meaning before and after any other player made their decision). Never once even heard another player's name mentioned as any part of the thought process for him. It is a matter of how he performs. Has nothing to do with any other player's situation. Straight from the horses mouth.
You act like it is just one guy that is in the way of Kyle Rau's future in Florida and therefore he is focused on that guy. That couldn't be any further from the truth. There are a lot of guys he has to compete with. It's not like there is some rule that a team can only have one smaller forward/center.
I’d say there is a 20% chance that he signs with the Panthers this summer. There are two major factors, and they’re both similarly sized: Rocco Grimaldi and Kyle Rau. Grimaldi is listed as 5’6" and 160 lbs. Rau is listed as 5’8" and 173lbs. They’re both on the small side for NHL players, who have grown monstrous over the years. Here’s the difference, Grimaldi already burned the bridge between the Panthers and the university that shall not be named; Rau hasn’t committed either way.
The point is, the Panthers already have a very talented, yet undersized forward who’s left college. I’m not sure they can take another small forward this year, as Grimaldi has forced himself on them. I would guess that even if they like Rau better, they’ll let him come back to Minnesota for his senior year because Grimaldi is already under contract.
I can’t read Kyle Rau’s mind, but from his previous statements to media, I believe winning a national championship for this school is important to him. Had the Gophers defeated Union on that Saturday evening in May, I might feel a lot different about this situation. Fortunately for Gopher fans, the cards fell the right way, and while one man is currently undecided, I think they’re going to get the band back together.
Nonsense. Clearly it was based off of one other small dude's play.
You can use all the internet website speculation you want as "evidence". I know that's all you've got. It is the classic definition of the blind leading the blind.
I'll stick with talking to the people who are actually involved in these situations. It seems to work out well. lol