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Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

SanTropez said:
If Wilcox plays like Wilcox, we should be in good shape to make the NCAA tourney.
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Wilcox will need to be in top form that's a no-brainer. His SV% and GAA numbers this season are the worst in his 3 seasons, but he's shown good form lately. My concerns are more about the guys playing in front of him and in a "one and done" scenario, unfortunately a little puck luck can end a team's season. OSU or Penn are going to be hungry for a shot at an LT championship and the NCAAs. Historically, the Gophers not been good in these situations and have only won 3 LTs in 18 years (last one 2006-07). They will need to play desperate and match their opponents intensity and then some...
 
Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

HarleyMC said:
Wilcox will need to be in top form that's a no-brainer. His SV% and GAA numbers this season are the worst in his 3 seasons, but he's shown good form lately. My concerns are more about the guys playing in front of him and in a "one and done" scenario, unfortunately a little puck luck can end a team's season. OSU or Penn are going to be hungry for a shot at an LT championship and the NCAAs. Historically, the Gophers not been good in these situations and have only won 3 LTs in 18 years (last one 2006-07). They will need to play desperate and match their opponents intensity and then some...
Click to expand...
And the last game they won in a conference tourney was back in 07-08. Gotta come out hot and make up for lost time....
 
Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

HarleyMC said:
Wilcox will need to be in top form that's a no-brainer. His SV% and GAA numbers this season are the worst in his 3 seasons, but he's shown good form lately. My concerns are more about the guys playing in front of him and in a "one and done" scenario, unfortunately a little puck luck can end a team's season. OSU or Penn are going to be hungry for a shot at an LT championship and the NCAAs. Historically, the Gophers not been good in these situations and have only won 3 LTs in 18 years (last one 2006-07). They will need to play desperate and match their opponents intensity and then some...
Click to expand...

As said before, the Gophers typically lose in these situations when they don't score. We're at 3.6 goals per game. We're 18-2 when getting to 4 goals...and 2-9 when we score two or fewer goals. Except for a Michigan outlier, its simple...when our forwards put the puck in the net, we win.
 
Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

gopher wes said:
And the last game they won in a conference tourney was back in 07-08. Gotta come out hot and make up for lost time....
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Thanks for that stat...it's pathetic. Back at ya :D : Only 6 LTs since 1959, only Gopher teams under Woog and Lucia have ever won an LT (3 each).
 
Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

Resident USCHO B1G columnists Claussen and Weston are both picking against the Gophers - which makes me more optimistic. Claussen goes as far as picking a 3 game marathon sweep by Michigan. Frankly I would welcome seeing them in the championship...with their wheels, Michigan would be totally gassed.
 
Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

Here's a kicker...CHN is reporting Quinnipiac's leading scorer Sam Anas is OUT for the ECAC tourney.:eek: But Qp coach seems to indicate he's not sure yet.

What does that mean for the Gophers? Harvard's Jimmy Vesey is a top ten Hobey candidate and leads the nation in scoring. It looks to me in the PWR if Harvard beats Qp tomorrow night and the Gophers lose, it's the end of the road for the Gophers season. If they win, there's a couple scenarios that could end their season as well.
 
Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

HarleyMC said:
Here's a kicker...CHN is reporting Quinnipiac's leading scorer Sam Anas is OUT for the ECAC tourney.:eek: But Qp coach seems to indicate he's not sure yet.

What does that mean for the Gophers? Harvard's Jimmy Vesey is a top ten Hobey candidate and leads the nation in scoring. It looks to me in the PWR if Harvard beats Qp tomorrow night and the Gophers lose, it's the end of the road for the Gophers season. If they win, there's a couple scenarios that could end their season as well.
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Don't know enough. Isn't Harvard right behind us...but the Q right ahead (and even closer in the RPI)? It seemed to me just as likely we get passed and pass at the same time. I thought the key is to make sure that neither win the east.
 
Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

5mn_Major said:
Don't know enough. Isn't Harvard right behind us...but the Q right ahead (and even closer in the RPI)? It seemed to me just as likely we get passed and pass at the same time. I thought the key is to make sure that neither win the east.
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What seems to happen is both MN and Qp drops a COp because of the losses. Harvard gains a COp and that scenario drops us from PWR 13th to PWR 14th and with 3 AQs (B1G winner, ECAC winner, and AHA winner) that leaves us on the other side of the bubble. All that matters is Qp must win tomorrow.
 
HarleyMC said:
What seems to happen is both MN and Qp drops a COp because of the losses. Harvard gains a COp and that scenario drops us from PWR 13th to PWR 14th and with 3 AQs (B1G winner, ECAC winner, and AHA winner) that leaves us on the other side of the bubble. All that matters is Qp must win tomorrow.
Click to expand...
All that matters is the Gophers win 2 games this weekend. Relying on others is a non-issue then.
 
Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

HarleyMC said:
What seems to happen is both MN and Qp drops a COp because of the losses. Harvard gains a COp and that scenario drops us from PWR 13th to PWR 14th and with 3 AQs (B1G winner, ECAC winner, and AHA winner) that leaves us on the other side of the bubble. All that matters is Qp must win tomorrow.
Click to expand...

I have Harvard COp at 3-1 vs. Gophers at 2-0. A Harvard win doesn't change that as we haven't played either of the teams and a Harvard win doesn't change anyone elses COp either. And even if it did, the RPI trumps COp and so RPI is what matters. Harvard is behind us by .0034 and Qq is ahead by .0024 so we're closer to passing Qp than letting Harvard catch us.

Don't doubt you...just trying to track with this.

Edit: Interesting point by Dahl - The possibilities of other teams advancing in certain scenarios will shift a few percentage points here and there, with the only significant shift being Minnesota’s chance of advancing with 1 win going from 35% as of now to 50-55% if Michigan wins or 16-18% if Wisconsin wins.

Last week Michigan was evil...this week they are glorious. Go Michigan!
 
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Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

Bucky Takes out Goldy and has longest winning streak of season!:eek::rolleyes:
 
Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

5mn_Major said:
I have Harvard COp at 3-1 vs. Gophers at 2-0. A Harvard win doesn't change that as we haven't played either of the teams and a Harvard win doesn't change anyone elses COp either. And even if it did, the RPI trumps COp and so RPI is what matters. Harvard is behind us by .0034 and Qq is ahead by .0024 so we're closer to passing Qp than letting Harvard catch us.
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You have to take into consideration the COps generated through any number of NCAA tournament scenarios throughout the weekend, but keep in mind that's only one criteria that populates the pairwise equation. There are several scenarios in the ECAC and it doesn't even matter if Colgate or Harvard win the ECAC for the outcome to affect the Gophers. If Harvard does win the ECAC, they can gain as many as 7 PWC Ws in one particular scenario and land on 8th in the PWR.

Keep in mind, Harvard will also win a H2H if they beat Qp. For the adjusted RPI you have to distribute the QWB amount earned evenly over games, as well as computing all the rest of the latent factorials to recalculate the adj. RPI (the weighted OppOpp W% is a key factor). The dependent variable is PWCWs (pairwise comparison wins) that determines the PWR point totals for the respective rankings.

It looks like in several scenarios that if Qp and the Gophers lose their semi, Qp still makes the NCAAs, but the Gopher's season ends.

gopher wes said:
And running other scenarios at the same time....LOL!:p;)
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Wes, the funny thing about the AQs is both LT games statistically correlate, so there's two levels to consider (i.e. Quinnipiac). For example, if you determine significant outcomes for the semi, there's potentially a second level that involves the same team. And yes I'm taking one game at a time and potential scenarios regarding Friday's games are all I've mentioned here in my posts for now. But as I stated there's a second tier of interactions effects in the championship games that are also significant for the Gophers that correlate with the semifinal results. Remember if a top 16 team loses a semi or championship game, that may propel an unranked team into the field with an AQ and with the Gophers current PWR ranking that's very ominous.

EDIT:

Looks like the Quinnipiac Bobcats will be without the services of Sam Anas and are headed to Lake Placid to take on Harvard without their leading scorer.

OSU eliminated us last year...vengeance time for the Gophers!!:cool:
 
Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

HarleyMC said:
OSU eliminated us last year...vengeance time for the Gophers!!:cool:
Click to expand...
Bottom line: If the Gophers want to control their own destiny, it's come down to one game. Right now, this is all they need to care about!
 
Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

D2D said:
Bottom line: If the Gophers want to control their own destiny, it's come down to one game. Right now, this is all they need to care about!
Click to expand...

Agreed. OSU is another B1G shot blocking team with guys that can score (Fritz, Greco, Johnson and Schilkey). They started their own version of a resurgence immediately after being swept by the Gophers 11 games ago. They got some key injured guys back and finished the regular season against B1G opponents @ 6-3-1 (3.2 Gs/game) vs the Gophers 7-3-0 (3.7 Gs/game). Gophers need to keep their eyes on the prize.
 
Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

B1G needs to find a way to improve. How pathetic it is has struck me in two ways;
1. I buy into the idea that a season title is tougher to win than a playoff of 2 -3 games, so I am usually pumped when they have won. This year it felt less satisfying, like instead of cranking out more wins than the opponents, they were just less hapless and manged to avoid more losses.
2. 21 wins puts UM at 14th in Power, but SCSU, with only 1 win over .500 is at 10th.
 
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