I'd really hate to play objective mediator, but Joe is right.
Schaus had some to do with our success last year, but our offense carried us the most. The team this year is not playing up to par, and it's showing. Schaus' stats this year really are not as good in comparison with last year, and so the lack of offense is killing us.
Last year Schaus put up a stunning .931 save percentage. Borrowing a term from baseball statistical analysis and reapplying my own objective formula for D-1 Women's Hockey, her WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) is 3.5. If you took a slightly below average goaltender, say 20th in D-1, and replaced Schaus with her, BC would have 3.5 less wins.
The 20th best save % in D-1 last year was .908.
That is an extra 23 goals per 1000 shots.
BC gave up 999 shots over 36 games last year. That's an average of 27.75 shots per game.
So, using those stats, a below average goalie (in this case, defined as the 20th best in D-1) would average .63825 more goals per game.
Now, consider BC's record last year, 24-10-2, and change OT wins to ties for the purposes of this argument (since an extra goal in regulation would have netted BC a loss rather than an OT win).
This gives BC a record of 22-10-4.
Considering that in 63.825% of these ties, BC would have lost due to the other team scoring a goal. Rounding, this would change 3 of BC's ties to losses. We now have a record of 22-13-1.
Now consider BC's 1 goal regulation wins, of which there were 3. 63.825% of these wins, or, rounding, 2 of them, would now be ties. This gives BC a final 06-07 record of 20-13-3.
Schaus' WARP last year (with a win being defined as 2 points) was 3.5, or 7 points. Schaus was worth 3.5 wins last year over a below average goaltender. Considering how close the 7-8-9 teams were last year, I'm sure this would have been enough to knock us out of the top 8 into 9th, but you really could say the same about any number of players from our top 2 offensive lines. Without one of them, we don't make NCAAs. So to answer your question freak, Schaus alone did not get BC into the NCAAs last year.
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Moving on to discussion of this year's stats, Schaus isn't doing nearly as well as she did last year, but she is still holding her own with an above average save % of .913.
The 20th best save % this year would be a .907 save %. This is an extra 6 goals per 1000 shots.
BC has given up 391 shots over 15 games, for an average of 26.0667 shots per game.
Using these stats, a below average goalie would average only .1564 more goals per game.
Now consider BC's record this year, 7-5-3, and switch all OT victories to ties.
This leaves us with a record of 6-5-4.
Considering that in 15.64% of these ties, BC would have lost due to the other team scoring a goal. Rounding, this would change 1 of BC's ties to a loss. We now have a record of 6-6-3.
Now consider BC's 1 goal regulation wins, of which there has been 1. 15.64% of this win, or, rounding, 0 of them, would now be ties. This gives BC a modified 07-08 record of 6-6-3.
Schaus' current WARP this year is 1, or 2 points. BC would have one less win this year if Schaus was replaced by a below average replacement goaltender. Multiplying this by 2.2667 (this is the inverse of .441, since we have gone 44.1% through the season), and Schaus' season long WARP would be 2.2667. A below average replacement player would cost BC just over 2 wins this year.
Schaus WARP 06-07: 3.5
Schaus WARP 07-08: 2.3
What do all of these stats mean?
1) Yes, Schaus helps our team. But she is not the sole key to our success. She isn't this year and she wasn't last year. Obviously she helps, in the same way that having a good goalie helps any of the top teams.
2) Perhaps much more importantly, you have to note that last year's team scored so much more points that, even though Schaus played that much better, it didn't matter as much because our victories were almost always by more than one goal, which would make a below average replacement goalie moot.
To sum, Joe is right. The team's offense last year was the biggest key. More one goal wins or ties last year, and we struggle MIGHTILY with a worse goalie. However, that wasn't that case because our offense existed - in force.
This year, our offense is sorely lacking, and it's showing. Schaus isn't quite what she was last year, but since the offense isn't clicking it's making former blowout games into ties and one goal wins, which is what would make all the difference if Schaus were replaced. Not to mention a hell of a large percentage of ties and losses that would now be wins. I'd do a long post about what our record would be last year with this year's goal scoring, and this year with last year's goal scoring, but it doesn't take much to see that nearly 1.5 more goals per game scored this year (we scored 3.97 GPG last year and are scoring 2.53 GPG this year) would make all the difference. Much more so than Schaus being replaced with someone of a .006 difference in save percentage would.
I'd also like to add that I think Ellison and Rothschild would be better than 20th in D-1 out of the 32 that qualify to be ranked, so this would make Schaus' higher skill even less valuable since the difference in skill wouldn't be as high.
UPDATE: I just looked it up. Last year, Ellison's save % was .925. Exactly .006 less than Schaus' .931 last year, and a whole lot better than Schaus this year. This year Ellison has a .926 save percentage with Minn-Duluth.
The nice thing about save % is that it measures just the goalie's performance and does not factor in the quality of the team's defense. Which is why GAA is a stupid, stupid way to measure goalie performance.
) I agree with ARM and dave....btw, from what I hear Bobby's little girl will be **** good!
