John t whelan ranking simulator

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Flag and others,

I think I now have v 0.4 and Nov 12 games. Here is what I get:

Minn
SCSU
Prov
BC

Mich
Quinn
Miami
NoEastern

Wisc
Ferris
NoDame
LSSU

Bowling Green
RPI
NoDak
AHA - Air Force at 36th

Bubble:
StL
Lowell
Mankato


Also, Flag, I still think something is amiss. Minnesota's RPI and RPI w/o bonus are the same. I am using version 0.4, and 11-12-13 data. Of course, Minny has wins against both BC and NoDame at present, as well as a tie with BC, so their RPI should rise with the bonus.

What I show is that Minnesota's RatingsPI without bonus is 65.92, and with bonus is 66.96. I don't know how you're getting what you're getting, obviously you're using the same data file.

 

[Numbers]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

What I show is that Minnesota's RatingsPI without bonus is 65.92, and with bonus is 66.96. I don't know how you're getting what you're getting, obviously you're using the same data file.

Would it depend on if I run the jar file or the exe file?

EDIT - I have played with this a little more. It seems whichever team is at the top of the list (AIC if by team name, Quinn if by record, Minny by RPI), gets no RPI bonus if you do a recalculate.

In other words, try this:
Open your program
Calculate using 11-12-13 data.
Note Quinn - RPI - 61.33. w/o Quality wins - 61.09
Sort by Record, so Quinn is on top
Now, choose "Load local data" again.
Note results. Quinn shows RPI=61.09 and w/o bonus also 61.09
Sort by RPI. Minn is on top. Note RPI 66.96. w/o bonus 65.92
Choose "Load local data" again
Now, since you had been sorting by RPI, Minn is on top. But, their RPI bonus doesn't show up.

Do you get the same results?

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Would it depend on if I run the jar file or the exe file?

EDIT - I have played with this a little more. It seems whichever team is at the top of the list (AIC if by team name, Quinn if by record, Minny by RPI), gets no RPI bonus if you do a recalculate.

In other words, try this:
Open your program
Calculate using 11-12-13 data.
Note Quinn - RPI - 61.33. w/o Quality wins - 61.09
Sort by Record, so Quinn is on top
Now, choose "Load local data" again.
Note results. Quinn shows RPI=61.09 and w/o bonus also 61.09
Sort by RPI. Minn is on top. Note RPI 66.96. w/o bonus 65.92
Choose "Load local data" again
Now, since you had been sorting by RPI, Minn is on top. But, their RPI bonus doesn't show up.

Do you get the same results?

I saved the file, put Minnesota on top, and still calculated 65.92/66.96. I'm using the jar, Java 7 update 25, Linux Mint 13. I'll see what my laptop does, which is WinXP.

EDIT: Also tried your Quinnipiac issue on my primary setup, I get 61.09/61.33.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

As of games completed 14 November 2013, here's the quality wins teams:

5.00 Minnesota
4.75 St. Cloud State
4.50 Providence
4.25 Boston College
4.00 Michigan
3.75 Quinnipiac
3.50 Miami
3.25 Northeastern
3.00 Wisconsin
2.75 Ferris State
2.50 LSSU
2.25 Notre Dame
2.00 Bowling Green
1.75 RPI
1.50 North Dakota
1.25 Minnesota State Mankato
1.00 UMASS Lowell
0.75 St. Lawrence
0.50 Yale
0.25 Bemidji State

And the tournament field:

Minnesota
St. Cloud State
Providence
Boston College

Michigan
Quinnipiac
Miami
Northeastern

Wisconsin
Ferris State
Notre Dame
LSSU

Bowling Green
RPI
North Dakota
AHA Champ (37 - Air Force)

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

As of games completed 15 November 2013, here's the quality wins teams:

5.00 St. Cloud State
4.75 Minnesota
4.50 Providence
4.25 Quinnipiac
4.00 Miami
3.75 Boston College
3.50 Michigan
3.25 Ferris State
3.00 LSSU
2.75 North Dakota
2.50 Notre Dame
2.25 Bowling Green
2.00 Clarkson
1.75 Wisconsin
1.50 Northeastern
1.25 RPI
1.00 Minnesota State Mankato
0.75 St. Lawrence
0.50 Colgate
0.25 Mass Lowell

And the tournament field:

St. Cloud State
Minnesota
Providence
Quinnipiac

Miami
Boston College
Michigan
Ferris State

LSSU
North Dakota
Notre Dame
Bowling Green

Wisconsin
Clarkson
Northeastern
AHA Champ (36 - Mercyhurst)

 

[LTsatch]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

As of games completed 15 November 2013, here's the quality wins teams:

5.00 St. Cloud State
4.75 Minnesota
4.50 Providence
4.25 Quinnipiac
4.00 Miami
3.75 Boston College
3.50 Michigan
3.25 Ferris State
3.00 LSSU
2.75 North Dakota
2.50 Notre Dame
2.25 Bowling Green
2.00 Clarkson
1.75 Wisconsin
1.50 Northeastern
1.25 RPI
1.00 Minnesota State Mankato
0.75 St. Lawrence
0.50 Colgate
0.25 Mass Lowell

And the tournament field:

St. Cloud State
Minnesota
Providence
Quinnipiac

Miami
Boston College
Michigan
Ferris State

LSSU
North Dakota
Notre Dame
Bowling Green

Wisconsin
Clarkson
Northeastern
AHA Champ (36 - Mercyhurst)

What happened to Yale on the QW list? Do already played games point status change as the year goes on? I need to brush up on the new system.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

What happened to Yale on the QW list? Do already played games point status change as the year goes on? I need to brush up on the new system.

The Quality Wins Bonus list is effectively the same as the old RatingsPI, with the exception of the weighting for where a game is played (1.2 potential if you win on the road or lose at home, 0.8 potential if you win at home or lose on the road). Yale is currently 26th in RatingsPI before the Quality Wins Bonus is calculated, and all that means is that if a team beats you (or ties, because a tie is defined as one-half win and one-half loss), they will not get any bonus points for having beat (or tied) a "quality team" at the time RatingsPI is calculated. That's not to infer any negative feelings upon your team, of course, just that a "quality team" is defined as a team within the top 20 of RatingsPI prior to the calculation of this bonus.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

As of games completed 16 November 2013, here's the quality wins teams:

5.00 Minnesota
4.75 St. Cloud State
4.50 Quinnipiac
4.25 Providence
4.00 Michigan
3.75 Ferris State
3.50 Boston College
3.25 Wisconsin
3.00 LSSU
2.75 Miami
2.50 Notre Dame
2.25 Bowling Green
2.00 Cornell
1.75 Clarkson
1.50 North Dakota
1.25 New Hampshire
1.00 Northern Michigan
0.75 Union
0.50 Minnesota State Mankato
0.25 Colgate

And the tournament field:


Minnesota
St. Cloud State
Providence
Quinnipiac

Michigan
Ferris State
Boston College
Wisconsin

Miami
LSSU
Notre Dame
Bowling Green

Cornell
Clarkson
North Dakota
AHA Champ (37 - Mercyhurst)

 

[LTsatch]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

The Quality Wins Bonus list is effectively the same as the old RatingsPI, with the exception of the weighting for where a game is played (1.2 potential if you win on the road or lose at home, 0.8 potential if you win at home or lose on the road). Yale is currently 26th in RatingsPI before the Quality Wins Bonus is calculated, and all that means is that if a team beats you (or ties, because a tie is defined as one-half win and one-half loss), they will not get any bonus points for having beat (or tied) a "quality team" at the time RatingsPI is calculated. That's not to infer any negative feelings upon your team, of course, just that a "quality team" is defined as a team within the top 20 of RatingsPI prior to the calculation of this bonus.

Thank you, I will enter your response into the RPI / Southern CT State U translator and hopefully figure out WTH you just wrote. On second thought , I get it, Yale's OOC schedule sucks and will most likely hurt them in the end. Can only hope wins against a strong ECAC will help in the end. Thanks for doing this for us.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Thank you, I will enter your response into the RPI / Southern CT State U translator and hopefully figure out WTH you just wrote. On second thought , I get it, Yale's OOC schedule sucks and will most likely hurt them in the end. Can only hope wins against a strong ECAC will help in the end. Thanks for doing this for us.

No problem. Unfortunately, the translator of which you spoke will probably end up giving you the report that the NCAA released and the USCHO subsequently simulcasted back around either August or September, which was hard enough for someone from RPI to understand. I believe a bit earlier in this thread, there is a mathematical explanation from back when few games were played in the season that should hopefully help. We've had some issues with trying to figure it out, at least all of the new stuff. Looking at your schedule, though, it does seem a little soft thus far, as you have two games (Princeton from the Ivy Shootout and Sacred Heart yesterday) that were actually removed from your calculation because they make your rating even lower. One of the rules is that winning a game will never decrease your rating on account of that game alone. You did get some bonus points, though, for the tie you had vs. Quinnipiac.

 

[goblue78]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

In light of LT's question, what would be interesting is a chart of Bonus points earned, not bonus points to be had. And which teams have bonus points benefited and which has it hurt. Admittedly, this is all way premature, but interesting nonetheless.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

In light of LT's question, what would be interesting is a chart of Bonus points earned, not bonus points to be had. And which teams have bonus points benefited and which has it hurt. Admittedly, this is all way premature, but interesting nonetheless.

It's quite alright, and I do appreciate the suggestion. There is a calculator to which I provide writing contribution, and I have been looking for some ideas of what to include; this is a good one. I'll also be looking at a pop-up chart of who bests who in PWR, though screen size is a challenge because all of the teams are now under consideration. The application does list this information individually. I can tell you that Michigan has received 0.53 bonus points.

 

[Numbers]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Flaggy,

As one who inputs his own results, is there a way to input several results and then the computation doesn't happen until the end? I spent lots of time last night waiting for the calculation to happen as I inputted each game.

So, what I hope for is:
Button to add results or games
A different button to load the chosen results into the compiler like one that says "Calculate now"

 

[Patman]

It's quite alright, and I do appreciate the suggestion. There is a calculator to which I provide writing contribution, and I have been looking for some ideas of what to include; this is a good one. I'll also be looking at a pop-up chart of who bests who in PWR, though screen size is a challenge because all of the teams are now under consideration. The application does list this information individually. I can tell you that Michigan has received 0.53 bonus points.

I hate to be an *** but is it possible to get like a document or spec detailing the new rub. I want to compute it at some point but its the minutiae that causes me indigestion.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

I hate to be an *** but is it possible to get like a document or spec detailing the new rub. I want to compute it at some point but its the minutiae that causes me indigestion.

Take a look in the USCHO news archives; they had an article on this back in September.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Flaggy,

As one who inputs his own results, is there a way to input several results and then the computation doesn't happen until the end? I spent lots of time last night waiting for the calculation to happen as I inputted each game.

So, what I hope for is:
Button to add results or games
A different button to load the chosen results into the compiler like one that says "Calculate now"

At this point, I only have it individually. Obviously you could edit the text file, but the game is in two places; one for each team. I am going to start to look for more efficient calculation methods, including the suggestion you made, given the time to calculate is starting to get long, mostly because of the formula to remove wins that lower the rating. Thank you for the feedback.

 

[Numbers]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Flag, I took a look at the results file. It seems easy enough to alter myself. Do I have it right that it works like this:
1st column is school name. All other columns go in groups of 4:Opponent, Location, Date, Result. So, to add a result for an already scheduled game just requires changing the result column from "0" to whichever team won or "Draw". To add a game, like in the conference playoffs or a holiday tourney, just add all 4 columns at the end of the file. Right? Thanks.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Flag, I took a look at the results file. It seems easy enough to alter myself. Do I have it right that it works like this:
1st column is school name. All other columns go in groups of 4:Opponent, Location, Date, Result. So, to add a result for an already scheduled game just requires changing the result column from "0" to whichever team won or "Draw". To add a game, like in the conference playoffs or a holiday tourney, just add all 4 columns at the end of the file. Right? Thanks.

I believe that's it, but just be aware that you will have to do it for both teams involved.

 

[Numbers]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

I hate to be an *** but is it possible to get like a document or spec detailing the new rub. I want to compute it at some point but its the minutiae that causes me indigestion.

Patman,

Here is a link: http://www.uscho.com/2013/09/20/roa...hanges-to-ncaa-tournament-selection-criteria/

Basically, if I have it right:

1) Compute win% for all teams, and save this.

2) Re-compute, using 1.2/0.8 weighting scale for RoadWins&HomeLosses/HomeWins&RoadLosses (It says that ties are 1/2 win and 1/2 loss, so I assume that means that, for your win%, you get +0.4/1 for a home tie. Neutral Site Games get 1.0 weighting.). Example for Minnesota: # wins = 5*.8 (home wins), 1*.4 (home tie), 3 * 1.2 (road wins) =8.0. # games = 6*.8 (home) + 4*1.2 (road) = 9.6. Win% = 8/9.6 = .833

3) Compute RPI for all teams using 25% win% from #2 above, and 21%OppWin% and 54%OppOppWin% from #1 above.

4) Check to see if any games should be left out.

5) Build a list of the top-20 teams according to the results after #4.

6) Add Quality Wins Bonus according to the scale provided. Use the Home/Road system here as well. For example, Minny currently has 2 QWB results against BC, both at home. So, they count .8. It's a win and a tie, so (1.5*.8)xthe factor for BC= 1.2*3.5 or 4.2. Minny has a win at NoDame, so that counts 1.2*2.5 or 3.0. Also, a win at home against UNH = 0.8*1.25 or 1.00. And, 2 wins at home against Mankato = 0.8*2*.25=0.4. This gives a total of 8.6. Now, we divide by games played, and we did that calculation in #2 above and got 9.6. Minnesota's QWB is therefore 8.6/9.6 = .896. (Note that this does not quite agree with Flaggy's totals, so either he or I am doing something wrong).

Which, as you say, is lots of minutiae.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Patman,

Here is a link: http://www.uscho.com/2013/09/20/roa...hanges-to-ncaa-tournament-selection-criteria/

Basically, if I have it right:

1) Compute win% for all teams, and save this.

2) Re-compute, using 1.2/0.8 weighting scale for RoadWins&HomeLosses/HomeWins&RoadLosses (It says that ties are 1/2 win and 1/2 loss, so I assume that means that, for your win%, you get +0.4/1 for a home tie. Neutral Site Games get 1.0 weighting.). Example for Minnesota: # wins = 5*.8 (home wins), 1*.4 (home tie), 3 * 1.2 (road wins) =8.0. # games = 6*.8 (home) + 4*1.2 (road) = 9.6. Win% = 8/9.6 = .833

3) Compute RPI for all teams using 25% win% from #2 above, and 21%OppWin% and 54%OppOppWin% from #1 above.

4) Check to see if any games should be left out.

5) Build a list of the top-20 teams according to the results after #4.

6) Add Quality Wins Bonus according to the scale provided. Use the Home/Road system here as well. For example, Minny currently has 2 QWB results against BC, both at home. So, they count .8. It's a win and a tie, so (1.5*.8)xthe factor for BC= 1.2*3.5 or 4.2. Minny has a win at NoDame, so that counts 1.2*2.5 or 3.0. Also, a win at home against UNH = 0.8*1.25 or 1.00. And, 2 wins at home against Mankato = 0.8*2*.25=0.4. This gives a total of 8.6. Now, we divide by games played, and we did that calculation in #2 above and got 9.6. Minnesota's QWB is therefore 8.6/9.6 = .896. (Note that this does not quite agree with Flaggy's totals, so either he or I am doing something wrong).

Which, as you say, is lots of minutiae.

I think you messed up the winning percentage potential. You take the total possible points to be had given the circumstance, and the weighting still follows the original paradigm that you described. The potential is 5 home wins (4.0) + 1 tie (1.0; doesn't matter where it was for a tie) + 3 away wins (3.6) + 1 road loss (0.8) = 9.4, not the 9.6 that you talked about previously. That should help your numbers a bit.