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John t whelan ranking simulator

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Priceless said:
These are the types of things that are going to drive fans mad.

Wisconsin doesn't play.
Drops from 8 to 16 in raw RPI.
BU beats and ties North Dakota.
Falls from #18 to #34 because they beat Wisconsin.
Click to expand...

Sure, but all of those fans can comfort themselves with the fact that every team is still in it.... and not just in the sense that anybody can still win in the conference playoffs and get in. Virtually every non-AHA team still has plenty of time to get in through the front door... certainly every team within, say three games of .500. That's why November PWR is REALLY meaningless. It's not that these games don't count... they definitely do. It's that it's impossible to tell how much they count until you know what happens in the rest of the season.
 
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

goblue78 said:
Sure, but all of those fans can comfort themselves with the fact that every team is still in it.... and not just in the sense that anybody can still win in the conference playoffs and get in. Virtually every non-AHA team still has plenty of time to get in through the front door... certainly every team within, say three games of .500. That's why November PWR is REALLY meaningless. It's not that these games don't count... they definitely do. It's that it's impossible to tell how much they count until you know what happens in the rest of the season.
Click to expand...

I know they aren't very meaningful, but there are going to be fluctuations - Northeastern going from 11 to the 30's in one week. One of the things I am watching is whether the rankings will solidify as time passes or if the fluctuations continue. This is a new way of calculating RPI and Pairwise.
 
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

I can guarantee the variance of the ratings will increase, since counting games at either .8 or 1.2 (with roughly equal probabilities) is guaranteed to increase variance. On the other hand, I can also guarantee that, jsut as in every other year, variance will decrease as the year winds down, because it will still be the case that the 20th game has, on average, only about 1/20th the weight of the previous games. Add to that the removal of the TUC cliff and variance at the end of the season will almost surely be lower. That doesn't mean, of course, that it might not still be the case that in a particular circumstance a team might not drop six places with a loss if they are particularly narrowly perched above the five teams below them, even at the end of the season. But there is nothing in the new system that won't stabilize the results overall at the end of the season.
 
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

As of games ended 26 November 2013:

5.00 Minnesota
4.75 Ferris State
4.50 Michigan
4.25 St. Cloud State
4.00 Providence
3.75 Quinnipiac
3.50 Cornell
3.25 Boston College
3.00 LSSU
2.75 Clarkson
2.50 Minnesota Duluth
2.25 Notre Dame
2.00 Yale
1.75 Minnesota State Mankato
1.50 Wisconsin
1.25 Bowling Green
1.00 UMASS Lowell
0.75 Miami
0.50 Union
0.25 Northern Michigan

And the tournament field:

Minnesota
Michigan
Ferris State
St. Cloud State

Providence
Quinnipiac
Cornell
Boston College

LSSU
Minnesota Duluth
Clarkson
Notre Dame

Yale
UMASS Lowell
Wisconsin
AHA Champ (38 - Air Force)
 
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

As of games ended 27 November 2013:

5.00 Minnesota
4.75 Ferris State
4.50 Michigan
4.25 St. Cloud State
4.00 Providence
3.75 Quinnipiac
3.50 Cornell
3.25 Boston College
3.00 LSSU
2.75 Clarkson
2.50 Minnesota Duluth
2.25 Minnesota State Mankato
2.00 Yale
1.75 Notre Dame
1.50 UMASS Lowell
1.25 Wisconsin
1.00 Bowling Green
0.75 Miami
0.50 Union
0.25 New Hampshire

And the tournament field:

Minnesota
Michigan
Ferris State
Providence

St. Cloud State
Quinnipiac
Cornell
Boston College

LSSU
Minnesota Duluth
Clarkson
Yale

UMASS Lowell
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
AHA Champ (38 - Air Force)
 
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Just thought of another issue with the new RPI calculation. In the conference playoffs, couldn't there be a clear advantage for a higher ranked team to play on the road? The difference between a .8 multiplier and a 1.2 multiplier could easily be the difference for a team on the bubble. Shouldn't a higher ranked team have the option to opt to play a two-out-of-three playoff series on the road? If not, why not? Note that the home advantage (as traditionally estimated) is nowhere near the RPI differential, so, other than the fact that you lose the gate receipts, shouldn't it be the normal call if you're on the bubble?
 
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

goblue78 said:
Just thought of another issue with the new RPI calculation. In the conference playoffs, couldn't there be a clear advantage for a higher ranked team to play on the road? The difference between a .8 multiplier and a 1.2 multiplier could easily be the difference for a team on the bubble. Shouldn't a higher ranked team have the option to opt to play a two-out-of-three playoff series on the road? If not, why not? Note that the home advantage (as traditionally estimated) is nowhere near the RPI differential, so, other than the fact that you lose the gate receipts, shouldn't it be the normal call if you're on the bubble?
Click to expand...

is the denominator always the same?

If so, in short, yes, but that perverse incentive will be there for any team. What isn't sure is it worth losing to get into such a situation. That'd be a risky move. I don't think I'd take that risk... could just go 2-2 or worse than 2-1.
 
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

November 29th's games are over, and here's how things look:

Quality Wins rate:

5.00 Minnesota
4.75 Ferris State
4.50 Michigan
4.25 St. Cloud State
4.00 Providence
3.75 Quinnipiac
3.50 Cornell
3.25 LSSU
3.00 Clarkson
2.75 Notre Dame
2.50 Minnesota Duluth
2.25 Boston College
2.00 Yale
1.75 Minnesota State Mankato
1.50 UMASS Lowell
1.25 New Hampshire
1.00 Miami
0.75 Bowling Green
0.50 Wisconsin
0.25 Union

And the tournament field:

Minnesota
Michigan
Ferris State
Providence

St. Cloud State
Quinnipiac
Cornell
LSSU

Notre Dame
Minnesota Duluth
UMASS Lowell
Clarkson

Yale
Boston College
Minnesota State Mankato
AHA Champ (39 - Mercyhurst)

A new version of the games list is uploaded today to reflect the tournament, as that deletes a couple of redundant games.
 
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Patman said:
is the denominator always the same?

If so, in short, yes, but that perverse incentive will be there for any team. What isn't sure is it worth losing to get into such a situation. That'd be a risky move. I don't think I'd take that risk... could just go 2-2 or worse than 2-1.
Click to expand...

The denominator is dependent upon who wins the game. If the home team, it's 0.8 for both. If the away team, it's 1.2 for both. Of course for the non-school-rink situations, because it is always the league that hosts and not a specific school, those are worth 1.0.
 
FlagDUDE08 said:
The denominator is dependent upon who wins the game. If the home team, it's 0.8 for both. If the away team, it's 1.2 for both. Of course for the non-school-rink situations, because it is always the league that hosts and not a specific school, those are worth 1.0.
Click to expand...

So that definately mutes any strategic advantage. Not that weird things can't happen. Personally, I'd love to lose one and win two all year long as that'll probably get you in
 
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

My point is that a team on the bubble may need to take a risk. It could be that 2-0 in your rink just isn't worth very much and 2-0 in the other guy's rink is worth enough to make the risk worth it. Take the obvious example where a win over someone in your rink would be dropped from RPI while a win in their rink would augment RPI. In that case, playing at home is all downside. (And in the ECAC for example, the first round is 5 vs. 12. A really bad #12 team would be exactly the team you want to play in their rink, and the #5 ECAC team is probably real close to the bubble.)
 
goblue78 said:
My point is that a team on the bubble may need to take a risk. It could be that 2-0 in your rink just isn't worth very much and 2-0 in the other guy's rink is worth enough to make the risk worth it. Take the obvious example where a win over someone in your rink would be dropped from RPI while a win in their rink would augment RPI. In that case, playing at home is all downside. (And in the ECAC for example, the first round is 5 vs. 12. A really bad #12 team would be exactly the team you want to play in their rink, and the #5 ECAC team is probably real close to the bubble.)
Click to expand...

I don't think math is going to be your friend.

Tell you what, take a home win prob of .55 under the two scenarios...

This is a short sim but I'm headed to a birthday party in dupont. Seeing as the denominator scales with the numerator I'd find it hard to believe there would be an advantage.

If you disagree w .55, sure, modify. But I'm almost sure of myself that your life is better playing for the first win and the home series than plopping in a loss

Just surface, N-H-H 3 wins

+2.6/+2.6

Vs n a a 2-1

+2.4/+3.4...

Don't even get back the same count of adjusted wins. There can be a lot of odd interplay when you add the bonuses... But first principles... Smaller numerator, larger denominator implies a smaller value... And this your base should you add tweaks... And you are likely to lose away... Christ that was a quick trip.
 
Last edited:
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

It clearly doesn't make sense to lose a game in order to play on the road. I was proposing that the team with the home ice advantage have the option to play on the road. That could clearly be in their advantage. Take a case of 5-12 matchup. That could easily be 65 percent at home and 60 percent on the road. Now the numbers work out.
 
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Has anyone figured out yet why FlagDUDE's numbers don't match JimDahl or RHamilton?
 
goblue78 said:
It clearly doesn't make sense to lose a game in order to play on the road. I was proposing that the team with the home ice advantage have the option to play on the road. That could clearly be in their advantage. Take a case of 5-12 matchup. That could easily be 65 percent at home and 60 percent on the road. Now the numbers work out.
Click to expand...

Right but its an unavailable choice... Of course this is ultimately the question of if teams should be road warriors.
 
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Numbers said:
Has anyone figured out yet why FlagDUDE's numbers don't match JimDahl or RHamilton?
Click to expand...

Not yet; I am going to make a debug build of the application that gives every calculation step by step and see where things are amiss. I know one difference RHamilton and I discussed involved how we are removing the games that negatively affect RatingsPI.
 
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

At the end of November 30th's games:

Quality Wins rate:

5.00 Minnesota
4.75 Michigan
4.50 St. Cloud State
4.25 Providence
4.00 Ferris State
3.75 LSSU
3.50 Quinnipiac
3.25 Miami
3.00 Cornell
2.75 Minnesota Duluth
2.50 New Hampshire
2.25 Boston College
2.00 Yale
1.75 Clarkson
1.50 UMASS Lowell
1.25 Minnesota State Mankato
1.00 Notre Dame
0.75 Wisconsin
0.50 Union
0.25 Northeastern

And the tournament field:

Minnesota
Michigan
Providence
St. Cloud State

Ferris State
Quinnipiac
LSSU
Miami

Minnesota Duluth
UMASS Lowell
New Hampshire
Cornell

Yale
Boston College
Clarkson
AHA Champ (36 - Mercyhurst)
 
Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

A little late, but here's where we are after December 3rd:

Quality Wins rate:

5.00 Minnesota
4.75 Michigan
4.50 St. Cloud State
4.25 Providence
4.00 Ferris State
3.75 LSSU
3.50 Quinnipiac
3.25 Minnesota Duluth
3.00 Cornell
2.75 Miami
2.50 Boston College
2.25 New Hampshire
2.00 UMASS Lowell
1.75 Clarkson
1.50 Yale
1.25 Minnesota State Mankato
1.00 Notre Dame
0.75 Wisconsin
0.50 Union
0.25 Northeastern

And the tournament field:

Minnesota
Michigan
Providence
St. Cloud State

Ferris State
LSSU
Quinnipiac
Minnesota Duluth

Miami
New Hampshire
Cornell
Boston College

UMASS Lowell
Yale
Clarkson
AHA Champ (36 - Mercyhurst)
 
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