Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

[UMLFan]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

Question about the class sizes: My understanding is that in Blaise's tenure, there have been a couple of LARGE classes that moved through, creatng this cycle of building while the large class is young, to being a contender by the time the class matures, and then collapsing back down to building when the large class graduates, and a new large class comes in as freshmen. This happens because the size of that large class prohibits them from recruiting younger players. Would it be possible to thin out that class as they get older, and restore some balance to the recruiting? Just wondering if there's a "fix" to the problem.

I had mentioned this earlier ... but the problem actually started with Whitehead, and Coach MacDonald just hasn't been able to get out of it. I think right now he has a pretty good chance to do so in the next couple of years, as they 13 freshmen currently on the roster have 3 walk-ons amongst them (at least). They also have a walk-on I believe in RS So G Michael Heffron. That (to me) means roster spots are available the next couple of seasons, and I'd venture that one of the other 10 or so will probably leave the program for whatever reason along the way as well. That bring this class to 8 or 9 by graduation. Lowell currently has 5 seniors on the roster, and has 5 players committed entering school next September. To help even out the classes, IMHO, they need to bring in a couple more than than that (potentially using roster spots opened up from the walk-ons?). After that, there are 5 current juniors on the roster that will graduate in 2012. As of now, there are 2 commitments to cover those spots. If Coach brings in 2 more for September, and adds 4/5 more for 2012, then you're looking at a much more even base of 8/9 juniors that season (this year's freshmen), 7 sophomores and 6/7 freshmen ... it's possible, as long as things don't go terribly awry along the way.

As for deals to "fill the seats when the visiting team doesn't have a local following," I'm pretty sure UNH has a local following (I would also argue that UML has a local following when they play at Merrimack, but I don't know how well UML fans travel these days).

We usually have about 75-100 travel to Merrimack, not sure what it was like a couple of weeks ago.

 

[SpauldingSmails]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

I understand that there is frustration in UML land. It might be easy for me to say as a BU fan, but I have always been impressed with what Blaise has been able to put together under relatively challenging circumstances. He has to take recruits, for the most part, that the other schools don't prioritize. Plain and simple, kids don't tend to grow up locally and want to be a Chief (aka River Hawk). As was mentioned several times in the thread the threat of a program close is also no small recruiting challenge.

BU's best recruiting days were when Blaise was on the job there.

Of the last 12 HE champs BU or BC won 9. If you go back further, the picture is even less encouraging as teams outside of the top four have only won a handful of times - one of those was Providence in 1985. I know that losing in the final doesn't feel like an accomplishment, but it is - particularly when you beat UVM (a final four team) to get there. How often have Merrimack and UMA been in the final?

I don't want to assert that you should be happy with being out of the top teams, I'm simply suggesting that you recognize that you might have a good to great coach on board.

 

[Babikian]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

Lowell started its downward spiral before the season started when Mr. Julian "Committed to UML" Melchiori decided to go play in Kitchener. Felt like everyone was big on this guy coming in and could have helped out the freshman class.

 

[UMLGoon]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

as was laid out below, it's very, very difficult for a team that isn't BC, BU or UNH to win a hockey east title. since 2000, only one other team has done it, and that's maine (twice). you have to go all the way back to 1996 to find a winner that wasn't one of the big four. i know we like to talk about how close the league is, and how top-to-bottom it's tougher than any conference in the country, but the reality is that it's not and frankly it never has been.

something to consider that most of you almost certainly haven't: perhaps macdonald sees the uneven classes as lowell's best chance to compete somewhat regularly in hockey east. prior to the classes being terribly uneven, how often did lowell compete for home ice in hockey east? answer: not very. in fact, hardly at all apart from the crowder years.

here is the number of finishes by position since lowell joined hockey east:
1: 0
2: 3 (86-7, 93-4, 95-6)
3: 1 (09-10*)
4: 3 (87-8**, 92-3, 01-2)
5: 5 (84-5, 94-5, 97-8, 00-1, 04-5***, 08-9)
6: 4 (85-6, 91-2, 98-9, 03-4)
7: 6 (88-9, 89-90, 90-1, 96-7, 05-6, 07-8)
8: 1 (02-3)
9: 2 (99-00, 06-7)
10: 0

* lost home ice on tie breaker
** 4th wasn't worth home ice then
*** forfeited four points and lost home ice thanks to dickface paul falco

this shows that, historically, lowell is a team that should finish between 5-7. the average finish, in fact, is 5.5, but that's occasionally because it couldn't finish lower than 7th, 8th or 9th due to the number of teams in the league.

so let's look at it prior to the classes becoming unbalanced in about 1999-2000: apart from a couple of second-place finishes (not coincidentally the years lowell made the ncaa tournament) but other than that a lot of missing home ice, often by substantial margins. on average, though, lowell only missed home ice by five points (75 total in 15 years, if you also deduct the point totals above the 5th place team when they did get home ice).

the classes became unbalanced in 1999-2000 and caused lowell, with a freshman- and sophomore-laden team (there were 18 of them, including all three goalies), to crash into last place in the league for the first time since 1988-89. they missed home ice by 17 points that year. but lowell rebounded considerably the next year and finished fifth, missing home ice by just four points.

and then blaise macdonald took over and immediately won home ice, staying three points clear of a playoff road trip. but that was the last time lowell would get home ice under his direction as the team finished eighth the next year, 15 points from home ice, thanks to having two freshmen and sophomore chris davidson between the pipes.

of particular interest is the last two cycles of freshmen.

02-3: 8th, 15 points out
03-4: 6th, 6 points out*
04-5: 5th, 6 points out
05-6: 7th, 10 points out (walter left, team sulked all year)

*forfeited points dropped lowell to 19 and bumped amherst to 27. had lowell been awarded those points, the home ice threshold would have been 23 for both teams (PC had 20 to finish 5th) and lowell would have won the tiebreaker
------------ (new group) ------------
06-7: 9th, 15 points out
07-8: 7th, 5 points out
08-9: 5th, 4 points out
09-10: t-3rd, 0 points out

one could say that there's been an improvement in the quality of freshmen after their first years in the league over the last eight years, one that will likely continue into the future as the team is better funded (hopefully) and supported (obviously) by the school.

but let's look at blaise's overall performance: an average finish of sixth place even, though a majority of that tenure has been played in a 10-team league. he's missed home ice by an average of 6.44 points a year. this is brought down HEAVILY by 30 of the 58 points by which he's missed home ice coming in two seasons, 2002-03 and 2007-08. both years, he leaned heavily or entirely on freshman goaltenders. this is likely to happen again this year, and, in fact, is right about in line with being a 15-point drop from 4th to lowell's position, whatever that may end up being (likely 10th).

so if blaise is guilty of anything in the class-stacking, it's of not having adequately seasoned goaltenders to backstop the teams competently. this will likely be amended by the time this group graduates because chris eiserman (hopefully) will have gotten enough practice not to pee down his leg when things go bad like carr and (especially) boulanger have this year.

 

[unhpuckfan2001]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

I think the Tsongas is a little oversized for college hockey anyway...rarely sells out, so a ticket deal is always a good way to raise some money through consessions. I seem to remember Lowell having one of the highest average attendance rates last year. Don't think thats a big deal. Merrimack had a $5 ticket deal when Lowell played them, and $1 when they play Providence. Just trying to fill seats when the visiting team doesn't have a local following...

Mullins Center: 8,373 (UMass)
Conte Forum: 7,884 (BC)
Whittemore Center: 6,501 (UNH)
Agganis Arena: 6,300 (BU)
Alfond Arena: 5,641 (Maine)
Matthews Arena: 5,400 (NU)
Tsongas Arena: 4,500 (UML)
Gutterson Field House: 4,003 (UVM)
Schneider Arena: 3,030 (PC)
Lawler Arena: 3,000 (Mack)

These numbers are from the Hockey East Website; I'm actually surprised Tsongas isn't higher up the list, the building always felt larger than that when I was there.

Now that UML owns the building, rather than an AHL team or a facility management company, I will be surprised if they're not more aggressive with tickets deals. UNH is doing the same thing; true, you're not making as much as when you're charging $24 a seat, but better to sell 'em for $11, and then make money on concessions, rather than having perpetual "dress up like an empty seat night".

Hopefully UML can turn things around; it was always the scrappy, die-hard teams that led to the strength of the league. I think Blaise is the right guy for the job.

 

[UMLFan]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

These numbers are from the Hockey East Website; I'm actually surprised Tsongas isn't higher up the list, the building always felt larger than that when I was there.

With tarps up around the seating areas, the capacity has been brought down on purpose to help foster more atmosphere and push people closer to the ice.

Actual capacity is just under 6,500 (6,496) though, and we've hit that before for bigger games.

 

[mikeinlowell]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

[

All I know is, there doesn't appear to be much fan support for UML right now. There's a radio ad up here, offering a two-ticket package including hot dogs and a drink for like $30. "Help make this a home game on the road for UNH, and turn Tsongas into the Whitttemore South." Sounds like the program didn't sell as many season tickets as they'd hoped . . .

I think the Tsongas is a little oversized for college hockey anyway...rarely sells out, so a ticket deal is always a good way to raise some money through consessions. I seem to remember Lowell having one of the highest average attendance rates last year. Don't think thats a big deal. Merrimack had a $5 ticket deal when Lowell played them, and $1 when they play Providence. Just trying to fill seats when the visiting team doesn't have a local following...[/QUOTE]


I'm saying UNH doesn't get a lot of local fans. (They are probably making trips to campus) BC, BU and Northeastern seem to have a lot of local alumni who turn out for game because its cheaper than Boston, easier to park etc. I don't see that with UNH...students come down, but not a significant number of local fans...

Bottom line here is that the arrival of Coach B, we have not made the NCAA tournament, been past the first round of the playoffs once?, and I don't think ever had home ice in a playoff. Not good enough.

 

[gochiefs]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

Bottom line here is that the arrival of Coach B, we have not made the NCAA tournament, been past the first round of the playoffs once?, and I don't think ever had home ice in a playoff. Not good enough.

Actually UML has made it past the 1st round twice(2002 & 2009) and did have home ice versus Northeastern (2002). Either way, like you said not enough.

 

[HockeyEh]

Is this the Colgate thread? Sure sounds like it. Maybe a coach trade can be arranged. No come to think of it sounds like both coaches are identical.

 

[John_Fuller]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

I think the Tsongas is a little oversized for college hockey anyway...rarely sells out, so a ticket deal is always a good way to raise some money through consessions. I seem to remember Lowell having one of the highest average attendance rates last year. Don't think thats a big deal.

The arena would have been much smaller ~4500-5000 had the AHL team not been formed, then again, LeLacheur Park would not be where it is now. Although with the building of the Pavilion Club, I doubt 6,496 is capacity for the arena.

Lowell had a high average attendance last year because the team was doing something that's plain and simple, winning. The expectation of a potential Garden trip/NCAA berth coming off the heels of a controversial (let's just leave it at that) HE championship appearance also added to the numbers. I think it's actually good the AHL team is gone because our numbers this year would probably have been lower.

After this great discussion, it seems that most people are willing to give him one more stretch (being this class) to grab home ice, win a HE champinship and/or get to the NCAA's once in the next four. I do agree with Patronick post below, next year is key and hopefully we start to see change for the status quo that has happen over the past many years.

 

[Patman]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

The arena would have been much smaller ~4500-5000 had the AHL team not been formed, then again, LeLacheur Park would not be where it is now. Although with the building of the Pavilion Club, I doubt 6,496 is capacity for the arena.

Lowell had a high average attendance last year because the team was doing something that's plain and simple, winning. The expectation of a potential Garden trip/NCAA berth coming off the heels of a controversial (let's just leave it at that) HE championship appearance also added to the numbers. I think it's actually good the AHL team is gone because our numbers this year would probably have been lower.

After this great discussion, it seems that most people are willing to give him one more stretch (being this class) to grab home ice, win a HE champinship and/or get to the NCAA's once in the next four. I do agree with Patronick post below, next year is key and hopefully we start to see change for the status quo that has happen over the past many years.

If we were regularly 3-6 I don't think we'd be having the conversation on arena size. The momentum is there, if we can get the team there the "size" question becomes moot.

 

[jcarter7669]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

I know that losing in the final doesn't feel like an accomplishment, but it is - particularly when you beat UVM (a final four team) to get there. .

FIrst off a big thank you to UML for winning that series, I truly believe it had a huge impact on UVM getting their **** together and make a run in the tourney.

As for the Future of Blaise, I will say I don't regularly agree with the "Fire so and so" threads. In this case I do agree however. UML's situation is different then say Maine's. ME had a few down years after having some good teams and then have righted the ship. A slump is a slump, and fans will get upset, but no team is going to be great year in and year every single year. UML however, doesn't have great years with a slump and then back to great years. The nature of this team is cyclical every 4 years Blaise has a very veteran laden team and in some cases a very talented veteran team. Considering that these teams fail is why IMO their needs to be a coaching change. It's one thing when the team struggles as a freshman or Soph heavy team. If Blaise was making a run at the NCAA's the other two years that would be something, but he isn't. He fails as much with the Jun and Sen heavy teams as he does with the young teams... possibly more when you consider what he has to work with. And that fact does nothing to help recruiting... who wants to go to a team where players peak their soph-junior seasons before faltering their Senior year at a time when they are looking to life after college hockey? Class size needs to be evened out and Blaise needs to be replaced.

 

[RHawk]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

FYI, Heard several long time season ticket holders saying at last nights game, their probably not renewing next year, if the same coaching staff is in place. Not what the Tsongas needs now. It appears that attendence is dropping weekly. Sometimes change is good to turn things around. The expression "If it ain't broke don't fix it" doesn't hold true for Lowell. Lowell is broken and needs fixin

 

[leswp1]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

FYI, Heard several long time season ticket holders saying at last nights game, their probably not renewing next year, if the same coaching staff is in place. Not what the Tsongas needs now. It appears that attendence is dropping weekly. Sometimes change is good to turn things around. The expression "If it ain't broke don't fix it" doesn't hold true for Lowell. Lowell is broken and needs fixin

I hear that every yr and they keep coming back. Any time a team loses like they did in Mankato game you have dropping attendance. When the team wins the seats are full, when they don't they aren't. This is true everywhere even Maine couldn't fill the building last yr before they started winning and they are diehards up there.

 

[walrus]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

This is true everywhere even Maine couldn't fill the building last yr before they started winning and they are diehards up there.

Yes
But tons of long timers no longer go to games, no longer donate and no longer have season tickets. Losing for long periods of time kills the flow of money

 

[malz2000]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

yes, it is time and it's long overdue. morons are still blaming it on coach whitehead. it will soon be over for blaise and we can look forward to better days. let's take the "blaise apologists" for what they are? probably school employees or relatives!!

 

[UMLFan]

Re: Is it time for change at UMass-Lowell?

So ... any changes of heart?