Antibody tests are inaccurate, many of the doctors in my area don't trust them and don't have them performed. Even the diagnostic swab tests are inaccurate. I know specifically of a lab technician that submitted unused swabs for testing and they came back positive. They were getting an unusual amount of positive tests so submitted these to see what came back. I am of the opinion (yes, it is just my opinion) that we move along. Regardless of what we do there is going to be a second wave. Delaying the inevitable isn't going to solve anything. For those that are concerned about it, take the precautions you feel are necessary. Businesses take the precautions they feel are necessary. Let people get on with living as they see fit. It is a free country after all, right? In the immortal words of Ty Webb, "Oh, Danny, this isn't Russia. Is this Russia? This isn't Russia, is it? I didn't think so." Still curious to see what decisions these schools/conferences will make. I'm hoping there is a season, for personal reasons and, for those athletes that have worked so hard to get to this point in life. Take care all!
To Reddington, not sure why you feel USA Hockey has been silent but, that certainly is not the case. They have been very forthcoming regarding return to participation guidelines, as well as some video announcements regarding coaching and officiating certification in the present situation. Have they addressed the upcoming season in regards to actual game play? No. But, considering all of the unknowns out there, it's still early, especially considering there's new Covid info coming out on a daily basis, along with the fact we're now experiencing 60,000 new cases per day and climbing, as well as a significant increase in hospitalizations and even deaths are now rising again.
To "Rightnut", no, I don't think it's a requirement to have served in that type of position to have an opinion. Again, not trying to be confrontational but, there is a difference between an opinion and an informed opinion.
And yes, at the collegiate level, ADs aren't making the final decision on playing or not. You're correct that falls on school presidents or boards of governors. However, it's the directors/presidents/boards of directors at the youth level who will make those decisions there and, the vast majority of those are volunteers who certainly aren't willing to risk their personal liability.
In the last three days, every legitimate expert I've read online or seen interviewed on TV is now saying that since the number of cases is rising as fast as it is, contact tracing is pretty much meaningless and the only way we can get things under control in the really bad areas is to go back into shut down mode for another solid 3-6 weeks. Obviously, no one wants to do that but, I won't be surprised to see a few states do it.
Also, in the last few days, over 200 experts from around the world have recently written to ask the WHO to adjust there guidance due to the fact that the evidence now indicates the virus is able to be aerosolized. Meaning, it can be infectious in droplets that are small enough to hang in the air in an indoor situation for up to 2 or 3 hours or longer, along with the fact that someone sneezing or coughing can propel those smaller droplets up to 20 ft away. This increases the importance of using masks indoors in group situations. Here's a link to an article from June 26th discussing it in more detail;
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6498/1422
For those that aren't interested in reading it, here's the first paragraph. Hopefully, this gets a few who might not normally read it to do so:
"Respiratory infections occur through the transmission of virus-containing droplets (>5 to 10 µm) and aerosols (≤5 µm) exhaled from infected individuals during breathing, speaking, coughing, and sneezing. Traditional respiratory disease control measures are designed to reduce transmission by droplets produced in the sneezes and coughs of infected individuals. However, a large proportion of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) appears to be occurring through airborne transmission of aerosols produced by asymptomatic individuals during breathing and speaking (
1—
3). Aerosols can accumulate, remain infectious in indoor air for hours, and be easily inhaled deep into the lungs. For society to resume, measures designed to reduce aerosol transmission must be implemented, including universal masking and regular, widespread testing to identify and isolate infected asymptomatic individuals."
This is a potential game changer in regards to the potential risk of transmission that administrators will now have to consider in their decision making process. There was a weekend hockey camp held in the small northern Wisconsin town of Ashland on June 26-28 and 13 people have already tested positive, with 11 more waiting for results. Here's a link to an article regarding the situation:
https://kbjr6.com/2020/07/06/confirm...ey-tournament/
Yes, Wisconsin is literally the Wild Wild West of Covid and I highly doubt anyone was wearing masks. There were people from Minnesota and Michigan that are now infected and there were individuals that are infected in youth baseball leagues in both Duluth, MN and Marquette, MI. and now those leagues are shut down for at least a week. Yet, this is a stark example of what could happen if hockey or any other indoor team sports are played. And, for sure it speaks to the challenges of allowing any spectators into the buildings even if we do play games.
Yes, the vast, vast majority of young people are not going to experience significant symptoms if infected. Still, the current outbreaks in the south are seeing a significant infection trend towards people in their 20s and 30s and, the average age of death is falling sharply. With overall deaths per day beginning to rise again. No surprise really as deaths lag behind infections by 4-6 weeks. So, there's a good chance we will continue to see that daily number climb again.
As someone who has served in some type of youth and adult sports administrative leadership position for 25 years, I can assure you that those responsible for having their name go on the dotted line in regards to the final decision about return to play, are always going to err on the side of abundant caution as there will be significant legal liability for those individuals or groups. I've been fortunate to be closely affiliated with a men's Div. I conference for over 25 years and, the leadership has no idea if there will be a season at this point. To the point that "Rightnut" made about older college professors who might fear getting Covid from their younger students and that they should just "stay home"; just a friendly reminder that many of the coaches and officials at every level of the game are 50 and over. And at the collegiate level, the average age of officials is in the low to mid 40s. If the older officials who are at elevated risk "just stay home" home as "Rightnut" suggests the profs do, you won't be playing any games anyway.
The above concerns don't even address the challenges that occur if we do play and a player or coach tests positive during the season. Both CDC and most state health department guidelines require both those who tested positive and those who meet the CDC definition of close contact with that person, quarantine for 14 days. And, if administrators are really following those guidelines properly, if a player tests positive the following week after a series, the team they played the previous weekend -- players, coaches, and staff -- should also be quarantining for 14 days as well. So, how do we maintain any kind of scheduling integrity? And, at the collegiate level, that starts affecting programs financially. Especially at the Div. I level where teams still fly to cities for games. Heck even if they're busing to a series there will be significant extra costs for late cancellations regarding flights, coach buses, and hotels. I truly hate to be a Debbie downer but, there truly are significant potential health, cost, and organizational challenges in trying to operate in the current situation.
