Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition
Great write up dude.
--- Home Lock - 38 (BU/BC/MC/ME) ---
--- In - 30 (NU) ---
BU 25 - 43 [1-10]
BC 23 - 39 [1-10]
ME 22 - 38 [1-10]
MC 21 - 43 [1-10]
UML 20 - 42 [1-10]
PC 17 - 39 [1-10]
UMA 14 - 36 [1-10]
UNH 13 - 33 [1-10]
NU 12 - 30 [1-10]
UVM 5 - 25 [3-10]
--- Home Eligible - 24 (Field) ---
--- Out - 13 (UNH) ---
Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BU - ME, @MC, UMA, @UML/UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
BC - @UNH, @UVM, MC/@MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
ME - @BU, @PC, @UML, UMAx2, @NUx2, UNH
MC - PC, BU, @UMA, @UML, UNH, @BC/BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
UML - UMA, UVMx2, MC, ME, BU/@BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
PC - @MC, @UNH/UNH, ME, @UMA, @NU/NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
UMA - @UML, @NU, MC, @BU, PC, @MEx2, UNHx2, MC/@MC
UNH - BC, PC/@PC, NU, @MC, UVMx2, @UMAx2, @ME
NU - @UVM, UMA, @UNH, PC/@PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
UVM - NU, @UMLx2, BC, @UNHx2, BUx2, @BCx2
It’s usually easiest at this point in the year to look at the top and bottom, since the middle will still be muddled.
On its face, UVM could still tie BU and, with a pair at the Gut, have the tb. That, however, does not mean that UVM could finish in first. They would also have to worry about staying ahead of BC, and Maine, and so on.
One unusual scheduling quirk in favor of catching the top three teams as a whole, is that after tonight’s ME @ BU game, they are done with each other, meaning that they could all lose on any given night. Of course, the flip of that is that they could all win.
If you add current 4th place MC, they add a singleton w/ BU and a H&H w/ BC to the mix, but that’s still only three games between the top four teams in the season’s final five weeks.
Traditionally, if you’re trying to move up in the standings by just a spot or two, it’s usually beneficial for you if the teams ahead of you are playing each other. For example, if your team is in 5th, trying to get the final home ice spot, you are often thought to be best off if 3 and 4 are playing each other. That way, if you win (which you will always need to do to move up – other teams losing doesn’t give you more points), you gain on at least one of the teams ahead of you. One could also argue that you’d be helped by 1 and 2 hosting 3 and 4, so that 3 and 4 would be at their least likely to win and perhaps both would lose – but that gets into matchups, playing styles, and other intangibles that get away from math.
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So, for UVM (and others chasing Home Ice), with all of the games that are still remaining, someone else – in fact, a bunch of “someone elses” – would pick up the points that BU, BC and Maine would need to drop and all those “someone elses” would stay ahead of UVM.
I could, for example, get UVM into a favorable position against all of the top four, with the following results. BU loses out and UVM wins out. Tied at 25. Maine loses out except tonight vs. BU (mandated because BU must lose out in this scenario). Maine @ 24. Similarly, MC picks up 2 from BU. BC and MC split and each loses the remainder, leaving both at 25. Now UVM is in a 4-way tie w/ BU, BC and MC at 25 and ahead of Maine at 24.
The problem for UVM at that point is that every other team in the league could have passed these five teams. In fact, if the team that is currently lower in the standings wins each of the remaining match-ups, UML, UMA, PC, and NU host, UNH is fifth and then we go to tbs to break up the log jam at 25 to see who is at each of 6 through 9.
The other way to see how high UVM could get is to not try to catch everybody, but let some teams ahead of you win out, taking points from those closer. For example, if UVM gives up on catching BU and both BU and UVM win out (UVM taking the 2 BU games), with a BC/MC 1/3 split and everything else the same as before except these changes, all of a sudden UVM could be 6th on their own.
Add in PC winning out and UMA losing to UML tonight or to Maine in mid-Feb, and suddenly UVM would be looking at Home Ice. The best path I’ve found so far for UVM is to let two of the teams at the top run away and suck up all the points with them. For instance, I can get UVM to a 3 seed with BU and MC taking all of their available points (who wins the BU/MC H2H is irrelevant to UVM), sprinkling in a couple of well-placed (for UVM) outcomes, and leaving UVM at 25 ahead of a logjam at 24 and 23.
Therefore, I cap out UVM, after last night’s loss, at 3.
Moving up to NU, I can still get NU into a 1 seed. One way is with a 3-way tie at 28 w/ PC and BU, whose tbs NU would pick up by sweeping out their season.
Since NU can still get to first in that scenario, simply flipping the NU@UNH game in the same scenario over to the UNH column gives UNH a 1 seed at 29 pts.
Give UMA the wins against NU and UNH in the current scenario and they jump up to 1, and so on.
Basically, everyone except UVM could mathematically still get to a 1 seed, even with the remaining schedule factored in.
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Moving from the top down, let’s see how low we can drop BU.
Well, taking where we just were and having BU instead lose out and having NU beat UMA, we’re in a situation with BU tied for last w/UVM @ 25. Since UVM would get the pair at home, that gives them the tb and BU is 10th.
Take that as a starting point and have BC lose out and BC stays at 23, and at the bottom.
Safe to say, at this point, anyone losing the rest of their games could still end up in 10th place. Current 10th UVM can’t get higher than 3 against the field, but they can get higher than your individual team.
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Also to be noted at this point is the games-in-hand situation. In most seasons, at this point the Beanpot schools (BU, BC, NU) have played more games and the other teams generally make up their games in hand over the two Beanpot weekends.
This year, Maine is also ahead of the other teams in terms of Games Played (GP) because they have a non-conference pair coming up with UAH.
So, when trying to figure out where teams really stand, and where their maxes are, note that BC and Maine have played 19 league games, leaving just 8 each. BU and NU have 18/9. UNH and UVM are at 17/10 and the other four are at 16/11. For perspective, that means that some teams (BC, ME) have played more than 70% of their HE schedule, while many others - essentially the whole current Home Ice bubble of MC, UML, PC, UMA – have played less than 60% of theirs.
It’ll be interesting to see which teams, if any, in the middle use those extra games to move up.
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So, where do we set the marker lines to start?
Well, BU and MC can each hit 43, but they can’t both hit it because they play each other. Similarly, PC plays everyone ahead of them except BU, so if they hit their max of 39, the rest of their opponents don’t. Factoring in the schedule, I place the Home Lock bar – where I can max out the points for 4th - currently at 38.
On the flip side of that equation, the lowest I can get 4th – so that the most teams could reach the plateau – is the scenario above where UVM hits the 3 seed. In that case, the 4th seed is at 24.
For the In bar, it’s simply a matter of staying ahead of #9’s (NU’s) max of 30.
For Out, if you can’t catch 8th, currently UNH @ 13, you can’t make the playoffs.
Everything else is still up for grabs.
Great write up dude.
...............................and, i think i just confused myself
