Hockey East Award Predictions

[MCHOCKEY]

Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

I'm not arguing about Heywood's abilities or spot on the All-Rookie team, but he was clearly making a case based on +/- alone.

Well, you can argue it now...I'm complete shocked that Heywood didn't get on the HE All Rookie Team...according to Jim Connelly's article, some awards have already been announced, including the All Rookie Team and some others...here they are...Heywood didn't make it...instead, Bitetto from NU and Clendening from BU did...not so sure I completely agree with that, but can ya do.

Here are the rest:

All-rookie team

G: Dan Sullivan, Maine
D: Anthony Bitetto, Northeastern
D: Adam Clendening, Boston University
F: Bill Arnold, Boston College
F: Charlie Coyle, Boston University*
F: Mike Collins, Merrimack
F: Michael Pereira, Massachusetts*
F: Brodie Reid, Northeastern
* — unanimous selections

Best defensive defenseman: Brian Dumoulin, Boston College

Best defensive forward: Tanner House, Maine*

Len Ceglarski Sportsmanship Award: Brian Flynn, Maine

Turfer Athletic Award: Jeff Dimmen, Maine

Three Stars Award: Paul Thompson, New Hampshire

Goaltending champion: John Muse, Boston College (1.84 goals-against average, .933 save percentage)

Scoring champion: Paul Thompson, New Hampshire (42 points)

Charlie Holt Team Sportsmanship Award: New Hampshire



Read more: http://www.uscho.com/2011/03/17/sem...ining-hockey-east-championship/#ixzz1Gr6M5k00

 

[RENCEB]

Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

I'm not arguing about Heywood's abilities or spot on the All-Rookie team, but he was clearly making a case based on +/- alone.

Fair enough, I agree it may be an imperfect stat, but +18 vs. E? I think I know who I want on the ice (not to say that Bitetto isn't a fine player).

 

[SkinsFan09]

Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

plus/minus is a very flawed statistic or do you think Jeff Schultz was better than Duncan Keith last year?

 

[J.D.]

Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

It may be flawed, but it can also be quite accurate. Just look at Dumoulin's +/- last year compared to everyone else on his team.

 

[Eaglefan06]

Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

It may be flawed, but it can also be quite accurate. Just look at Dumoulin's +/- last year compared to everyone else on his team.

This is where it becomes useful. When you are comparing two guys on the same team.

 

[dmjossel]

Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

This is where it becomes useful. When you are comparing two guys on the same team.

If you can compare the two players to the rest of their team, then you can compare how they fit within those comparisons, and then compare the teams themselves.

Merrimack and BU had the same defense, statistically, in league play, tied for 3rd with 2.48 goals allowed per game. So any huge difference in individual player's plus/minus, when compared across teams, will result from MC's offensive output being higher.

Heywood's +18 was tops on the team, one better than the starting goaltender's +17, better than his defensive pair's +15 (senior and team captain Adam Ross). Heywood went 1-10-11 in league play.

Clendening's +/- in league play was +6, same as Boston Bruin draft pick David Warsofsky's. It's better than his defensive pair, Garret Noonan's +3, and better than starting goaltender Kieran Millan's +2. It was worse than Connolly's +9, Sahir Gill's +8, and Matt Nieto's +7. All three are forwards. Clendening went 3-14-17 in league play.

Bitetto went Even on a team defense rated fifth in the league, at 2.56 goals allowed per game, just a tick behind BU and MC tied for third. That's a far cry from fellow freshman defenseman Jame Oleksiak, who went +9. Bitetto does have three powerplay goals, though; so if Bitetto is playing on the powerplay and playing against better lines, that would account for it. Bitetto's Even rating is a bit better than starting goalie Rawlings' -2. Bitetto scored 3-13-16 in league play.

So BU and MC's team defense numbers were identical, with NU's a tick behind.

MC's offense was 4th in the league, just a hair (0.03 goals per game difference) behind 3rd place UNH, and significantly (.5 goals per game difference) ahead of BU, which was only slightly ahead of NU (.1 goals per game difference).

I think as often happens, point scoring matters quite a bit, even when talking about defensive players, and if your team scores a lot but you aren't a direct contributor, it hurts you. In comparison to the rest of their teams, all three of these players are statistically as good as each other, defensively, in comparison to how well their team does defensively overall. So with identical goals against figures, but MC's significantly higher offense, all other things being equal you'd expect Heywood's +/- to be higher. Add to that his lower scoring rate (Heywood gives away five points to Bitetto and six to Clendening). Add in that both Bitetto and Clendening have points on the power play (not reflected in their +/-) and I think that's what adds up to them getting the nod among rookies over Heywood.