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Grand unified 2020 election thread

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Three points on the Senate:

1. McConnell's statements on confirmations may shift the onus of "radicalism" from the idea that the Dems are the radicals to the fact that the Republicans are.

2. NC isn't over. It's still likely Tillis but Cunningham has been closing the gap. We may only need one in GA.

3. The GA runoff(s) won't have Dump on the ballot. There will still be Dems wanting to swing the Senate, but there won't be Dumpies on the other side, only Republicans. That may shave a few points from Perdue and or Loeffler.
 
geezer said:
This won't cheer you up, but this guy gets it, and it's well-written: https://defector.com/there-is-no-alternative/
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Thanks Geezer. Great read and you're right, he nails it. Dude always was the best singer in Van Halen.... ;-)

This in particular hits home for me:
The bottomlessness and abandonment of this moment—a weirdly proud unwillingness to understand or acknoweldge the virus, an inability to conceptualize a massive social challenge in terms above or beyond the individual or formulate any kind of response in terms beyond empty aggression and brute force—is all that’s left. It’s a uniquely American failure. The public is presented with an abundance of choices and options and plans, but nothing remotely like an actual alternative.
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The essay SCREAMS 2020 America to me. I noted at the beginning of the dark times of the pandemic (around mid-April when we really saw how bad it could be, and was in places like Detroit and NYC) that even had Clinton won the presidency, our systems (health care, education, work) would prevent us from doing much more to contain and fight the virus. People can't stay home from work. We don't have enough teachers or school rooms. Even with insurance our health care system doesn't work well for at least a third who have it, and for the 10% or so completely without it, well we knew you were screwed. Even our culture that rewards ATTENDENCE in some cases more than performance. It's great if you haven't missed a day of work in 5 years, but how many people did you make sick in that time?

If you believe in a vengeful God paradigm, I guarantee the dude is mad at us (I'm assuming if you believe that way God is a dude). He might not even allow us a crumb of a president to soothe our present days. Kep, brother, I love your stuff here, hated it when you took your last sabbatical, but I'm telling you something, I'd like to share a pop with you someday but we gotta hurry. Hell, if trump wins I don't think Handy and I will ever get to the finish line of our Derek Chauvin (and friends) bet.
 
French Rage said:
If NV gets more certain, things get veeeery awkward at Fox: https://twitter.com/nxthompson/status/1324404107290021888
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tumblr_peltudpjvE1xyw659o1_500.gifv
 
BassAle said:
I'm not very confident that AZ holds up. We may need GA or PA.

I might throw up.
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I'm not saying we should assume anything, but I also don't know if we have to be super-pessimistic about AZ. While their mail-ins have more of an R-tint than elsewhere, they've had more crossover from R/I to D than elsewhere, and Pima will be more D than Maricopa (and it needs to be noted Biden is still winning Maricopa slightly, which is nothing to scoff at). It really comes down to where each drop is coming from, which is more inconsistent than other states.
 
psych said:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but even on the path from 1005p* to the most current update you have in Pa, wouldn’t Biden pick up somewhere around 193k votes, when he’s behind by 115k?
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I'm forecasting the following breakdown for remaining PA votes. So if you count the rest, biden only picks up 35k if he performs at the current district %s.
[TABLE="border: 0, cellpadding: 0, cellspacing: 0"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 80"] [/TD]
[TD="width: 80"]Trump[/TD]
[TD="width: 80"]Biden[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Unadjusted[/TD]
[TD]294,489[/TD]
[TD]329,158[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adjusted[/TD]
[TD]254,609[/TD]
[TD]369,678[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
BTW, think about what this election means for the future:

1) AZ heading blue, if not already. Both senators, probably Biden. AZ is one of the fastest-growing states.

2) GA on the cusp. Sandblast Stone Mountain and put Stacy Abrams on it.

3) TX not so fast. Latino males apparently fall for the "hurr domestic violence is strength!" con meme. But that in turn may mean the cons have to blunt their hatred against Messicans, immigrants, and non-whites, which helps deNazify them.

4) White burbs moving to the Dems. This helps blunt the anti-white, anti-Centrist memes on the far Left where I live. It also lessens my cognitive dissonance a little so yay me!

All four of these things are positive.
 
French Rage said:
dx, OK, I kept thinking the swing was compared against the state overall, which would make the numbers MUCH easier to beat. Saying Biden needs to beat his Philly numbers in Philly is a bit harder than beating his overall PA numbers I suppose.

That said, in GA and PA the mail-ins have a bit of a swing in them; the question is how much?
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Exactly. These swings are kinda tough to eke out when you're already taking 85% of the vote.

Hard to tell on the mail ins. They HAVE certainly skewed the numbers in each distrcit towards Biden, but not universally.
 
Given that % of votes counted is based on past elections, doesn't that mean there is likely more ballots left to count. Since we are seeing a historic rate of voting for this 1 election.
 
Oh f-------ck

Somehow the spreadsheet isn't matching the overall # of votes remaining.... It's forecasting too many votes. The district level returns must be incorrect...
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Oh f-------ck

Somehow the spreadsheet isn't matching the overall # of votes remaining.... It's forecasting too many votes. The district level returns must be incorrect...
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Yeah I've been telling you that. Your says 200K left in GA, the TV says 60K.

That said, he only needs 2/3 of the vote, and most of what is left is mail-in/early in places where he's already getting 3/4, so it's still doable.
 
French Rage said:
Yeah I've been telling you that. Your says 200K left in GA, the TV says 60K.

That said, he only needs 2/3 of the vote, and most of what is left is mail-in/early in places where he's already getting 3/4, so it's still doable.
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If I assume everything under 95% is actually 100%, this changes the math

Biden needs to outperform by 25% and win the remaining ballots by 33 points.

I completely missed you saying that....
 
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