What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

Grand unified 2020 election thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Just got home and flipped over from MSNBC to CNN. Forgot how good Jon King was at this ballot counting ting. He breaks it down very simply, says, "here's where we at, here's what Biden or Trump need to do to get the win here, here's what their track record says they've been doing so far". The MSNBC guy, Kornacki, just gets a little too far into the weeds breaking it all down, going into all sorts of various scenarios, it just gets too complicated to follow, to have a clear sense of what it is he's trying to get at.

Unfortunately, means I also have to listen to Wolf Blitzer.

From what I just saw, there are three states where Biden has the upper hand, MI, NV and AZ, and all the outstanding vote would seem to benefit him. Trump would have to outperform his current vote percentage by like 7-10% or more to flip that advantage.

Trump is only at an advantage in one, PA, and while Biden would need to get something like 70-75% of the outstanding vote to flip it, those votes are in counties where he's been getting upper 60's, upper 70% of the count.

So to win, Trump needs to flip three states, overperform in all three of them. Biden just needs to maintain in those three. If he does that, whatever happens in PA doesn't matter.

Edit: well, I guess Trump is at advantage in GA and NC also, but as with PA, if Biden maintains his leads in his three states, they don't matter either.
 
Last edited:
Scarlet said:
I don't believe ONE THING from 538 anymore.
Click to expand...

the final map _might_ be off by Florida and ME-2, right?

PA and GA still in play, AZ and NV leaning Biden. WI called. MI looking like it will pull through.

edit: oops -- forgot about NC. I think that one goes Trump.
 
Last edited:
Handyman said:
Is the nerd slap fight still going on? That was pretty funny last night :-)

Ok ignoring the very heavy negatives for a minute...some positives will come out of this IF Biden wins. A functional cabinet with people in charge who actually know what they are doing is important. Using science to help fight COVID is positive. Not having 3am tweets from the President crashing the market will be a positive. Not alienating our allies because we want to pout and cry will be positive.

Legislatively things wont be great cause nothing gets done...but IF Biden pulls it out I honestly hope Pelosi loses as Speaker because she isnt needed. To fight Trump she is acceptable, but we need a different consigliere if Biden is in charge. That too would be a net positive IMHO.
Click to expand...

I'd replace Pelosi and Schumer both. Pelosi's like 200 and Schumer is milquetoast
 
psych said:
So, Drew S., was it more important to you that Collins added jobs for Maine, or that Gideon was an out-stater with outside funding?
Click to expand...

The jobs. If the senate ends up 51-49 for the R’s she is going to have some serious power.

If you look at Maine’s leadership we have a moderate dem governor, independent senator, and a moderate republican senator. We are ever, ever so lucky.

People can bash me for my Collins takes but I’m just trying to explain why things went the way they did.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
Is that men holding rifles pretending it’s their
dong?
Click to expand...

No guns yet but you know that is the threat they are telegraphing.

I'd be interested to hear our Republicans (Hovey, Sic, etc) opine on Dump's pre-emptive attempt to shut down the count. Will they stand up to Dump, stand with him, or try to wiggle and deflect like McConnell did?

It would be nice to hear our R's tell Dump to get bent.
 
Last edited:
geezer said:
The creepiest thing about this election is that Dumpie got more people to vote for him than in 2016, by virtue of four years of bigoted, racist, rapist, hateful, whining criminality. To some extent I can understand the awesome power of confirmation bias and media bubbles over sheeple who voted for him on a chance and then convinced themselves to stick with him. But to come to the decision now to vote for Trump with no prior commitment? It's sad that level of evil even exists in the world.
Either that, or there are a lot of 18-22 year-old "human scum" now who just weren't able to vote last time.
Click to expand...

This. Van Jones was bang on last night about how even Biden winning isn’t nearly enough. All the fake info Trump has put out has been incredibly successful unfortunately.
 
rufus said:
Trump is only at an advantage in one, PA, and while Biden would need to get something like 70-75% of the outstanding vote to flip it, those votes are in counties where he's been getting upper 60's, upper 70% of the count.
Click to expand...

someone was tracking incoming batches of PA results over the last 2 hours and they were ranging 79-81% for Biden except for one at 76%. The votes are still there for Biden but it will be close.
 
walrus said:
Couple things on Maine Senate race. Most of the 2nd district might as well be Appalachia . Sure their are some coastal areas with money but most of counties are poor. Gideon ads whining about Collins being bought and paid for( its true but..) didn't play well when Gideon had 66 million in donations. I figured Collins would win easily in 2nd district but she only lost one county, Portland area aka Northern Massachusetts. I think she actially lost Knox county by 65 votes so 2 counties. Gideon is a carpet bagger to rural mainers.

Collins also had Bill Green endorse her on several well played ads on tv and in print. Bill Green is well liked retired Sportscaster on local news. They were low key and extremely well done.

Last. you keys made fun of me telling you why Collins is well liked in Maine. She is out and about in the community and that plays in Maine.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The Bill Green ads were very well done.

As someone who lives close to NH border(which I’m ashamed of) it was interesting to hear how similar the Collins and Shaheen ads were. Gideon was never going to be successful trying to portray Collins as some sort of extremist.
 
PA:
[TABLE="width: 332"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Swing[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Margin/
Remain[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Margin[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Remain[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]10:00 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]32.37%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]34.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]492,426[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,427,379[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]1:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]30.26%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]33.85%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]461,769[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,364,320[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]1:23 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]30.26%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]33.85%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]461,765[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,364,089[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]1:39 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]29.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]33.89%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]457,024[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,348,458[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]1:47 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]29.04%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]33.63%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]448,140[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,332,423[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]1:58 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]28.88%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]33.53%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]444,310[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,325,303[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]2:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]28.70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]33.27%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]435,231[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,308,225[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]2:12 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]27.74%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]33.15%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]424,125[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,279,594[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]2:16 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]27.07%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]31.92%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]398,656[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,249,106[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]2:22 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]26.57%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]31.53%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]388,889[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,233,397[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]2:37 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]26.14%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]31.16%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]379,639[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,218,368[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]2:40 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]26.14%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]31.17%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]379,700[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,218,110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]2:47 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]25.60%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]29.88%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]356,423[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,192,780[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]2:50 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]25.38%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]29.80%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]353,879[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,187,467[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]3:03 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]24.97%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]29.46%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]343,462[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]1,166,050[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Drew S. said:
The jobs. If the senate ends up 51-49 for the R’s she is going to have some serious power.

If you look at Maine’s leadership we have a moderate dem governor, independent senator, and a moderate republican senator. We are ever, ever so lucky.

People can bash me for my Collins takes but I’m just trying to explain why things went the way they did.
Click to expand...

No. You have a moderate dem governor, an independent Senator, and a twat.
 
Drew S. said:
The jobs. If the senate ends up 51-49 for the R’s she is going to have some serious power.
Click to expand...

the lone "swing" vote with Harris as the tie breaker means Collin's phone will be ringing off the hook with comments from "concerned" constituents. too bad there aren't earmarks anymore. she could have traded that swing vote for some nice pork
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top