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ECAC Projected Standings 2021-2022

I'm not going to wax poetic about one new league result.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]77.0[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Clarkson
  3. Harvard
  4. Cornell
    –––––
  5. RPI
  6. Colgate
  7. SLU
  8. Union
    —————
  9. Dartmouth
  10. Princeton
  11. Brown
  12. Yale
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  467.8 |  [B]82.7[/B]  12.4   3.7   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.24 | 54.41
Ck |  227.0 |   7.4  [B]38.1[/B]  27.9  17.6   6.1   2.1   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.87 | 45.81
Ha |  144.2 |   5.9  26.8  [B]31.6[/B]  22.4   8.7   3.2   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x |  3.17 | 44.74
Cr |  143.1 |   3.8  19.5  26.0  [B]30.0[/B]  12.5   5.3   2.1   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  3.57 | 43.16
RP |   88.3 |   0.2   2.0   5.8  13.5  [B]29.1[/B]  23.5  14.7   7.4   3.1   0.9   0.1   0.0 |  5.60 | 36.28
Cg |   84.0 |   0.0   0.7   2.4   6.9  17.7  [B]22.6[/B]  21.3  15.8   8.9   3.4   0.2   0.0 |  6.52 | 33.34
SL |   65.4 |   0.0   0.6   2.3   6.6  17.2  [B]22.8[/B]  22.4  16.2   8.7   3.0   0.3   0.0 |  6.55 | 33.33
Un |   48.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.1   4.6  11.0  19.0  [B]25.8[/B]  22.7  13.5   1.8   0.1 |  7.95 | 28.95
Da |   32.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.7   6.4  12.0  19.8  [B]28.9[/B]  24.6   4.6   0.3 |  8.58 | 26.66
Pr |   31.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   3.1   6.7  13.2  24.7  [B]42.0[/B]   8.3   0.6 |  9.18 | 24.28
Br |   14.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.6  11.5  [B]70.2[/B]  14.8 | 10.95 | 15.60
Ya |    9.0 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.1  14.6  [B]84.2[/B] | 11.83 |  9.45

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60    61    62    63    64    65 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  467.8 |                                                                       x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   0.9   1.4   2.0   2.9   3.9   5.0   6.2   7.4   8.3   9.0   [B]9.4[/B]   9.2   8.4   7.5   6.0   4.4   3.1   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.1 | 54.41
Ck |  227.0 |                                                                       x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   0.9   1.4   2.0   2.7   3.7   4.7   5.8   6.9   7.9   8.5   [B]8.8   8.8[/B]   8.2   7.4   6.3   4.9   3.7   2.6   1.6   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0                                     | 45.81
Ha |  144.2 |                                                                                         x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.7   1.1   1.5   2.2   3.0   3.9   4.9   6.0   6.9   7.7   8.3   [B]8.4[/B]   8.3   7.7   6.8   5.9   4.8   3.6   2.7   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 44.74
Cr |  143.1 |                                                                                         x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   1.0   1.4   2.0   2.7   3.6   4.6   5.5   6.5   7.3   7.8   [B]8.1   8.1[/B]   7.7   7.1   6.2   5.1   4.1   3.2   2.3   1.6   1.0   0.6   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 43.16
RP |   88.3 |                                                           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.8   1.3   1.9   2.6   3.5   4.5   5.5   6.6   7.3   7.9   [B]8.4[/B]   8.2   7.8   7.3   6.2   5.2   4.3   3.2   2.3   1.6   1.0   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                 | 36.28
Cg |   84.0 |                                                           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   0.9   1.4   2.0   2.7   3.6   4.5   5.5   6.5   7.2   7.8   [B]8.1[/B]   7.9   7.5   7.0   6.1   5.2   4.3   3.3   2.4   1.8   1.2   0.8   0.5   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                 | 33.34
SL |   65.4 |                                                           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   0.8   1.3   1.9   2.7   3.6   4.5   5.5   6.5   7.3   7.8   [B]8.2[/B]   8.1   7.6   7.1   6.1   5.1   4.2   3.2   2.4   1.7   1.1   0.8   0.5   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                 | 33.33
Un |   48.9 |                                         x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   1.0   1.5   2.2   2.9   3.9   5.0   5.9   6.9   7.7   8.1   [B]8.2[/B]   8.1   7.5   6.7   5.9   4.8   3.8   2.8   2.1   1.4   1.0   0.6   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x   0.0                                                                   | 28.95
Da |   32.8 |                                         x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.8   1.2   1.8   2.5   3.3   4.3   5.3   6.2   7.1   7.7   8.0   [B]8.1[/B]   7.7   7.0   6.3   5.4   4.4   3.5   2.7   2.0   1.4   0.9   0.6   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 26.66
Pr |   31.0 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   0.9   1.4   2.1   2.9   3.9   4.8   5.7   6.7   7.4   7.7   [B]7.9[/B]   7.8   7.3   6.6   5.8   4.9   4.0   3.2   2.4   1.8   1.3   0.9   0.6   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                               | 24.28
Br |   14.2 |                           0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.0   4.4   5.8   7.1   8.3   9.1   [B]9.2[/B]   9.1   8.4   7.4   6.3   5.0   3.9   3.0   2.1   1.5   1.0   0.6   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                               | 15.60
Ya |    9.0 |   0.2   0.8   1.6   2.9   4.6   6.1   7.8   9.1   9.8  [B]10.0[/B]   9.5   8.6   7.4   6.1   4.8   3.5   2.5   1.8   1.1   0.7   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                     |  9.45
[B]Bold[/B] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ck    Ha    Cr    RP    Cg    SL    Un    Da    Pr    Br    Ya |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2 |  99.8
Ck |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   2.4   5.4 |  91.0
Ha |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.6   0.8   3.7   7.8 |  86.7
Cr |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.1   1.6   5.8  11.3 |  79.3
RP |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.9   0.9   4.8   7.0  10.4  22.6  28.1 |  21.4
Cg |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6         1.8   7.2  12.2  16.0  21.3  18.5 |  10.0
SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   1.7         7.6  12.4  16.4  21.7  18.1 |   9.5
Un |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.9   3.6   3.3        17.5  18.0  11.5   5.7 |   1.5
Da |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.6   3.7  10.7        11.8   6.7   3.4 |   0.6
Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.8   2.5   2.1   6.7   7.1         3.4   1.5 |   0.3
Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.2         0.0 |   0.0
Ya |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Qu |  467.8 | 100.0  96.9  77.1  56.4
Ck |  227.0 |  99.9  84.4  49.5  20.9
Ha |  144.2 |  99.6  71.4  29.4   9.4
Cr |  143.1 |  99.3  69.3  27.2   8.9
RP |   88.3 |  91.9  29.5   7.3   2.0
Cg |   84.0 |  86.3  22.8   5.1   1.4
SL |   65.4 |  81.4  16.3   3.1   0.7
Un |   48.9 |  61.0   6.2   0.9   0.2
Da |   32.8 |  37.6   2.0   0.2   0.0
Pr |   31.0 |  31.6   1.2   0.1   0.0
Br |   14.2 |   8.3   0.1   0.0   0.0
Ya |    9.0 |   3.1   0.0   0.0     0
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
So Quinnipiac is only becoming more and more likely to win the Cleary, with a full 3+ win gap between them and second place. There's a much smaller split between 4/5 and even smaller between 8/9 (about a win each), so we may see some movement at those lines, but there hasn't been much to this point.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]67.7[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Clarkson
  3. Cornell
  4. Harvard
    –––––
  5. RPI
  6. SLU
  7. Colgate
  8. Union
    —————
  9. Brown
  10. Princeton
  11. Dartmouth
  12. Yale
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  516.5 |  [B]89.9[/B]   8.0   1.7   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.12 | 56.17
Ck |  225.8 |   5.2  [B]48.1[/B]  31.0  11.8   3.2   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.62 | 46.78
Cr |  173.5 |   4.2  32.9  [B]37.5[/B]  18.7   5.2   1.2   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.93 | 45.45
Ha |  109.6 |   0.6   8.8  20.7  [B]37.9[/B]  20.5   8.1   2.5   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  4.08 | 40.86
RP |   91.1 |   0.0   1.8   6.8  20.6  [B]35.6[/B]  21.4   8.7   3.3   1.2   0.4   0.1   0.0 |  5.16 | 36.75
SL |   64.5 |   0.0   0.4   1.9   8.0  22.4  [B]31.9[/B]  18.4  10.0   4.7   1.9   0.4   0.0 |  6.16 | 33.40
Cg |   64.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.4   6.1  14.7  [B]24.5[/B]  23.5  16.2   9.7   3.6   0.2 |  7.68 | 28.65
Un |   44.7 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.9   4.1  12.4  23.0  [B]23.7[/B]  18.3  11.9   5.2   0.4 |  7.95 | 27.87
Br |   32.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.8   5.5  11.4  18.2  [B]25.1[/B]  24.8  12.1   0.9 |  8.86 | 25.11
Pr |   31.9 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   3.4   8.7  14.9  22.6  [B]27.1[/B]  20.2   2.0 |  9.26 | 23.70
Da |   20.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.4   5.5  11.5  22.7  [B]48.8[/B]   8.3 | 10.32 | 19.95
Ya |   11.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.6   9.6  [B]88.3[/B] | 11.86 | 11.32


   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60    61    62    63    64    65 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  516.5 |                                                                                               x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.8   1.3   1.9   2.8   3.9   5.2   6.6   8.0   9.2  10.1  [B]10.3[/B]  10.0   8.9   7.2   5.6   3.7   2.1   1.1   0.4 | 56.17
Ck |  225.8 |                                                                                         x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.1   1.7   2.5   3.4   4.7   5.9   7.2   8.4   9.3   9.5   [B]9.6[/B]   8.9   7.6   6.4   4.8   3.2   2.2   1.2   0.5   0.3   0.1                                           | 46.78
Cr |  173.5 |                                                                                                     x     x     x   0.0     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   1.0   1.5   2.1   3.0   4.0   5.2   6.5   7.4   8.4   [B]9.1[/B]   8.9   8.7   8.1   6.8   5.7   4.4   3.0   2.1   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                               | 45.45
Ha |  109.6 |                                                                                               x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   0.9   1.4   2.0   2.8   3.9   4.8   5.9   7.1   7.8   8.3   [B]8.7[/B]   8.3   7.8   7.2   5.9   4.8   3.8   2.6   1.8   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                     | 40.86
RP |   91.1 |                                                                 x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   0.9   1.4   2.1   2.9   3.9   5.0   6.2   7.1   7.9   [B]8.6   8.6[/B]   8.5   8.0   6.9   5.9   4.8   3.4   2.5   1.7   1.0   0.6   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                   | 36.75
SL |   64.5 |                                                                 x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.1   1.7   2.4   3.4   4.4   5.5   6.6   7.5   8.1   [B]8.7[/B]   8.4   8.0   7.5   6.3   5.3   4.3   3.1   2.2   1.6   1.0   0.6   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                                   | 33.40
Cg |   64.4 |                                             0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.5   2.3   3.1   4.1   5.4   6.4   7.3   8.2   8.4   [B]8.5[/B]   8.3   7.5   6.6   5.7   4.4   3.4   2.5   1.7   1.1   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                     | 28.65
Un |   44.7 |                                         x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   0.9   1.4   2.1   2.9   3.8   5.1   6.1   7.0   8.0   8.3   [B]8.4   8.4[/B]   7.7   6.7   5.9   4.6   3.6   2.7   1.8   1.3   0.8   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                                                           | 27.87
Br |   32.1 |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.2   1.8   2.6   3.8   5.0   6.0   7.3   8.1   8.4   [B]8.8[/B]   8.4   7.7   7.0   5.9   4.7   3.8   2.7   2.0   1.4   0.9   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                                               | 25.11
Pr |   31.9 |                                 0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.6   2.4   3.3   4.3   5.4   6.5   7.2   8.0   8.2   [B]8.3[/B]   8.0   7.2   6.3   5.4   4.4   3.4   2.6   1.9   1.3   0.9   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             | 23.70
Da |   20.6 |                                 0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.1   1.8   2.8   4.0   5.2   6.6   7.7   8.3   [B]8.9   8.9[/B]   8.4   7.8   6.7   5.6   4.5   3.4   2.5   1.8   1.2   0.8   0.5   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                               | 19.95
Ya |   11.7 |   0.3   0.9   1.6   3.1   4.8   6.3   8.0   9.3   9.8  [B]10.0[/B]   9.5   8.5   7.3   5.9   4.6   3.4   2.4   1.7   1.1   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                                             | 11.32

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ck    Cr    Ha    RP    SL    Cg    Un    Br    Pr    Da    Ya |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   2.9 |  96.0
Cr |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.4   1.1   4.7 |  93.3
Ha |     x   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.7   0.7   2.3   2.7   6.4  18.9 |  68.0
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.3   1.9   3.3   5.9   8.5  15.7  33.6 |  29.3
SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2         4.6   5.8  11.5  14.7  22.6  23.3 |  10.3
Cg |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.5         8.8  16.4  17.9  16.4   7.3 |   1.6
Un |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.6   8.1        16.5  16.1  15.2   5.3 |   1.1
Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.8   6.3   8.7         9.3   8.0   2.3 |   0.3
Pr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.2   6.0   6.2   7.8         5.2   1.3 |   0.2
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.9   2.1   1.9   1.9         0.2 |   0.0
Ya |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Qu |  516.5 | 100.0  98.1  81.3  60.1
Ck |  225.8 |  99.9  87.5  51.2  19.8
Cr |  173.5 |  99.8  81.1  37.1  12.4
Ha |  109.6 |  98.0  58.9  16.6   4.4
RP |   91.1 |  93.0  36.3   8.2   2.1
SL |   64.5 |  81.5  18.0   3.0   0.6
Cg |   64.4 |  73.7  11.4   1.7   0.4
Un |   44.7 |  58.7   5.4   0.6   0.1
Br |   32.1 |  37.6   1.7   0.1   0.0
Pr |   31.9 |  34.8   1.4   0.1   0.0
Da |   20.6 |  18.1   0.2   0.0   0.0
Ya |   11.7 |   5.0   0.0   0.0     x

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Yale beat Brown and now Brown looks worse.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]66.9[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Clarkson
  3. Cornell
  4. Harvard
    –––––
  5. RPI
  6. SLU
  7. Colgate
  8. Union
    —————
  9. Princeton
  10. Brown
  11. Dartmouth
  12. Yale
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  547.4 |  [B]94.1[/B]   4.9   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.07 | 56.94
Ck |  156.8 |   2.2  [B]41.0[/B]  32.7  16.3   5.7   1.7   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.89 | 45.28
Cr |  150.9 |   3.1  [B]38.9[/B]  32.9  17.7   5.5   1.5   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.90 | 45.22
Ha |   99.5 |   0.5  11.7  22.1  [B]34.2[/B]  19.7   8.4   2.5   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.00 | 40.94
RP |   81.5 |   0.0   2.5   7.9  19.5  [B]33.4[/B]  23.1   9.6   3.0   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0 |  5.13 | 36.73
SL |   61.0 |   0.0   0.8   3.0   9.5  24.0  [B]32.8[/B]  17.9   8.0   2.8   0.9   0.3   0.0 |  5.93 | 34.00
Cg |   63.5 |   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.9   7.6  17.6  [B]30.4[/B]  23.1  11.6   5.1   1.8   0.4 |  7.30 | 29.45
Un |   36.5 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.0  10.0  22.7  [B]28.4[/B]  17.9  10.3   5.2   1.7 |  8.06 | 27.11
Pr |   26.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.7   8.2  16.3  [B]25.9[/B]  22.3  16.7   7.0 |  9.32 | 23.04
Br |   21.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.3   4.2  10.6  20.7  [B]28.8[/B]  25.0   9.1 |  9.82 | 21.49
Da |   19.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.0   3.5   8.6  16.6  23.5  [B]29.4[/B]  17.1 | 10.14 | 20.46
Ya |   15.7 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.1   3.4   8.9  21.5  [B]64.7[/B] | 11.44 | 15.34


   |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60    61    62    63    64    65 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  547.4 |                                                                             x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.8   1.3   2.0   2.9   4.1   5.5   7.0   8.5   9.8  10.5  [B]10.8[/B]  10.1   8.7   7.1   4.9   2.9   1.6   0.5 | 56.94
Ck |  156.8 |                                                                       x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   1.0   1.5   2.2   3.1   4.2   5.3   6.6   7.8   8.5   9.2   [B]9.3[/B]   8.8   8.1   7.0   5.4   4.2   2.9   1.7   1.1   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0                                           | 45.28
Cr |  150.9 |                                                                                   x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.1   1.6   2.3   3.3   4.3   5.5   6.7   7.6   8.5   [B]9.1[/B]   8.9   8.6   7.9   6.5   5.3   4.1   2.8   1.9   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0                               | 45.22
Ha |   99.5 |                                                                             x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.4   2.0   2.7   3.8   4.7   5.9   7.0   7.7   8.3   [B]8.8[/B]   8.4   7.9   7.2   6.0   4.9   3.9   2.7   1.9   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                     | 40.94
RP |   81.5 |                                               x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.4   2.1   3.0   3.9   5.0   6.2   7.0   7.9   [B]8.6   8.6[/B]   8.4   8.0   6.8   5.9   4.8   3.5   2.5   1.8   1.0   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                   | 36.73
SL |   61.0 |                                               x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.4   2.0   2.8   3.7   4.8   6.0   6.8   7.7   [B]8.4   8.4[/B]   8.3   7.9   7.0   5.9   5.0   3.8   2.8   2.0   1.3   0.8   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                   | 34.00
Cg |   63.5 |                           0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.0   1.7   2.4   3.3   4.4   5.4   6.4   7.6   8.1   8.5   [B]8.7[/B]   8.1   7.4   6.5   5.3   4.2   3.3   2.3   1.5   1.0   0.6   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                     | 29.45
Un |   36.5 |                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.8   1.3   1.9   2.8   3.7   4.7   6.0   6.8   7.6   [B]8.4   8.4[/B]   8.2   7.9   7.0   6.0   5.0   3.9   2.9   2.1   1.4   0.9   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                                                           | 27.11
Pr |   26.6 |               0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.0   2.9   4.0   5.0   6.2   7.1   7.8   8.3   [B]8.4[/B]   8.0   7.5   6.7   5.7   4.7   3.7   2.8   2.1   1.4   1.0   0.6   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             | 23.04
Br |   21.7 |                                 0.1   0.3   0.5   1.2   2.1   3.0   4.6   5.9   7.0   8.5   9.1   [B]9.2   9.2[/B]   8.5   7.4   6.4   5.1   3.8   2.8   2.0   1.3   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                                 | 21.49
Da |   19.7 |               0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.5   2.4   3.5   4.5   5.9   7.0   7.8   8.6   [B]8.8[/B]   8.5   8.1   7.2   6.1   5.1   4.0   3.0   2.2   1.5   1.0   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                               | 20.46
Ya |   15.7 |   0.2   0.5   1.0   2.0   3.3   4.5   6.3   7.8   8.6   9.5   [B]9.6[/B]   9.1   8.5   7.3   6.0   4.8   3.6   2.6   1.8   1.2   0.8   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                                             | 15.34

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ck    Cr    Ha    RP    SL    Cg    Un    Pr    Br    Da    Ya |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.0   1.6   4.0 |  92.2
Cr |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.0   1.5   3.9 |  92.7
Ha |     x   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.4   0.9   3.4   5.1   6.6  14.9 |  68.6
RP |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.2   1.1   3.5   9.4  12.1  15.3  27.5 |  29.9
SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1         2.3   5.2  13.8  17.6  19.2  24.5 |  13.3
Cg |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8         8.5  19.2  19.5  18.2  12.3 |   2.4
Un |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   5.4        17.5  17.4  15.5   7.2 |   0.8
Pr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   4.8   7.5         6.9   5.4   2.2 |   0.1
Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.3   4.8   3.8         3.3   1.2 |   0.0
Da |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.3   3.7   3.2   2.6         0.8 |   0.0
Ya |     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.3   0.3   0.2       |   0.0

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Qu |  547.4 | 100.0  98.7  84.5  67.5
Ck |  156.8 |  99.7  80.4  41.6  12.5
Cr |  150.9 |  99.7  79.5  39.8  11.7
Ha |   99.5 |  97.6  58.9  18.3   4.5
RP |   81.5 |  92.2  37.0   8.8   2.1
SL |   61.0 |  84.4  21.9   3.9   0.8
Cg |   63.5 |  80.5  16.6   2.5   0.7
Un |   36.5 |  58.4   4.8   0.5   0.1
Br |   21.7 |  24.2   0.6   0.0   0.0
Pr |   26.6 |  33.1   1.2   0.1   0.0
Da |   19.7 |  20.1   0.4   0.0   0.0
Ya |   15.7 |  10.2   0.1   0.0   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
No new league games, but plenty of data to fiddle with the KRACH values.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]66.9[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Clarkson
  3. Cornell
  4. Harvard
    –––––
  5. RPI
  6. SLU
  7. Colgate
  8. Union
    —————
  9. Dartmouth
  10. Princeton
  11. Brown
  12. Yale
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  571.0 |  [B]94.9[/B]   4.3   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.06 | 57.02
Ck |  169.6 |   2.6  [B]47.6[/B]  28.6  15.5   4.3   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.76 | 45.67
Cr |  119.6 |   1.5  25.6  [B]32.2[/B]  28.7   8.5   2.5   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.28 | 43.49
Ha |  125.9 |   1.0  20.2  30.2  [B]31.3[/B]  11.8   4.0   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.51 | 42.60
RP |   70.2 |   0.0   1.4   4.9  13.0  [B]33.0[/B]  26.4  13.5   5.2   1.8   0.6   0.2   0.0 |  5.53 | 35.07
SL |   60.1 |   0.0   0.7   2.7   8.4  27.2  [B]30.2[/B]  17.5   8.3   3.4   1.2   0.4   0.1 |  5.97 | 33.61
Cg |   65.3 |   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.3  10.0  19.5  [B]28.2[/B]  20.4  11.1   5.3   2.1   0.5 |  7.21 | 29.61
Un |   35.8 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.8   8.6  18.9  [B]25.5[/B]  19.9  13.1   7.7   3.0 |  8.34 | 26.26
Da |   29.8 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.3   3.9   9.3  16.4  [B]22.0[/B]  21.3  17.5   8.2 |  9.28 | 23.38
Pr |   25.9 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.4   6.7  13.3  20.9  [B]24.0[/B]  21.2  10.7 |  9.62 | 22.30
Br |   20.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.2   3.7   9.1  16.9  25.4  [B]30.0[/B]  13.4 | 10.04 | 21.09
Ya |   17.8 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   3.9   9.1  20.8  [B]64.2[/B] | 11.40 | 15.89


   |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60    61    62    63    64    65 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  571.0 |                                                                             x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.7   1.2   1.9   2.8   3.9   5.3   6.9   8.4   9.7  10.5  [B]10.8[/B]  10.3   9.0   7.3   5.1   3.0   1.6   0.5 | 57.02
Ck |  169.6 |                                                                       x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.8   1.3   1.9   2.7   3.7   4.8   6.1   7.3   8.2   9.1   [B]9.4[/B]   9.0   8.6   7.5   5.9   4.7   3.4   2.1   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0                                           | 45.67
Cr |  119.6 |                                                                                   x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   1.0   1.5   2.3   3.1   4.1   5.3   6.3   7.4   8.3   8.6   [B]8.8[/B]   8.6   7.7   6.8   5.8   4.3   3.3   2.3   1.4   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                               | 43.49
Ha |  125.9 |                                                                             x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   1.0   1.5   2.2   3.0   4.0   5.1   6.2   7.2   8.2   8.5  [B] 8.7[/B]   8.6   7.8   6.9   5.9   4.4   3.4   2.4   1.5   1.0   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                     | 42.60
RP |   70.2 |                                               x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.3   2.0   2.7   3.6   4.8   5.7   6.7   7.8   8.2   8.4   [B]8.5[/B]   7.8   7.1   6.2   5.0   3.9   3.0   2.0   1.4   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                   | 35.07
SL |   60.1 |                                               x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   1.1   1.6   2.3   3.2   4.1   5.2   6.4   7.1   7.9   [B]8.5[/B]   8.4   8.1   7.7   6.5   5.5   4.6   3.4   2.5   1.8   1.1   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                   | 33.61
Cg |   65.3 |                             x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   1.0   1.6   2.3   3.1   4.2   5.2   6.3   7.4   8.0   8.4   [B]8.6[/B]   8.1   7.5   6.7   5.5   4.4   3.5   2.4   1.7   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                     | 29.61
Un |   35.8 |                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.7   1.2   1.8   2.6   3.7   4.6   5.6   6.9   7.6   8.1   [B]8.5[/B]   8.3   7.8   7.2   6.2   5.0   4.1   3.0   2.2   1.5   1.0   0.6   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                                           | 26.26
Da |   29.8 |               0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.2   1.7   2.6   3.6   4.6   5.8   6.7   7.5   8.2   [B]8.3[/B]   8.2   7.8   7.0   6.1   5.1   4.1   3.1   2.4   1.6   1.1   0.7   0.5   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                               | 23.38
Pr |   25.9 |               0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.2   1.8   2.6   3.7   4.8   5.8   6.9   7.7   8.2   [B]8.4[/B]   8.2   7.6   6.9   5.9   4.9   4.0   3.0   2.2   1.6   1.1   0.7   0.5   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                     | 22.30
Br |   20.5 |                                 0.1   0.4   0.7   1.5   2.5   3.5   5.2   6.5   7.6   8.9   [B]9.4[/B]   9.1   9.0   8.1   6.9   5.8   4.6   3.4   2.5   1.7   1.1   0.7   0.4   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                                 | 21.09
Ya |   17.8 |   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.6   2.7   3.8   5.5   6.9   7.9   9.0   [B]9.4[/B]   9.1   8.8   7.8   6.6   5.5   4.3   3.2   2.3   1.6   1.0   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                                             | 15.89

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ck    Cr    Ha    RP    SL    Cg    Un    Da    Pr    Br    Ya |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   0.8   0.9   3.0 |  94.3
Cr |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.4   1.5   2.2   6.2 |  88.1
Ha |     x   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   2.0   2.3   3.4   8.6 |  82.8
RP |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.3   1.6   6.3  11.4  13.7  16.6  28.1 |  19.3
SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2         2.4   7.1  13.3  15.5  18.8  25.7 |  11.8
Cg |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.9        10.1  15.9  18.3  18.3  13.9 |   2.9
Un |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.2   5.1        14.8  14.2  13.6   6.4 |   0.6
Da |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   1.1   4.1   8.3         7.3   6.5   3.0 |   0.1
Pr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   0.8   3.5   6.0   5.5         5.0   1.9 |   0.1
Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   0.7   1.7   3.9   3.6   2.9         1.1 |   0.0
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.4   0.3   0.4       |   0.0

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Qu |  571.0 | 100.0  98.8  84.8  68.3
Ck |  169.6 |  99.8  83.8  46.5  14.2
Cr |  119.6 |  99.2  72.5  28.2   7.2
Ha |  125.9 |  98.9  72.7  28.3   7.7
RP |   70.2 |  86.6  26.9   5.5   1.2
SL |   60.1 |  81.5  20.0   3.4   0.7
Cg |   65.3 |  79.2  17.6   2.7   0.7
Un |   35.8 |  52.4   4.1   0.4   0.1
Da |   29.8 |  37.3   1.8   0.1   0.0
Pr |   25.9 |  30.3   1.1   0.1   0.0
Br |   20.5 |  21.5   0.5   0.0   0.0
Ya |   17.8 |  13.2   0.1   0.0   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Only one league game, but Clarkson took a it of a tumble after this weekend's non-league contests. That said, they're a healthy three wins over 5th and should comfortably secure a bye. The 8/9 line is a bit muddier, with Colgate, Union, Dartmouth, Princeton, and Brown vying for two spots.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]66.1[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Cornell
  3. Harvard
  4. Clarkson
    –––––
  5. RPI
  6. SLU
  7. Colgate
  8. Union
    —————
  9. Dartmouth
  10. Princeton
  11. Brown
  12. Yale
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  502.0 |  [B]89.2[/B]   8.4   1.9   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.14 | 56.13
Cr |  191.1 |   6.3  [B]42.0[/B]  29.4  18.8   2.9   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.72 | 46.60
Ha |  147.0 |   2.6  24.3  [B]31.9[/B]  31.5   7.6   1.8   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.24 | 44.36
Ck |  139.2 |   1.9  24.2  [B]31.9[/B]  31.3   8.0   2.2   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.28 | 44.20
RP |   67.1 |   0.0   0.6   2.8   9.3  [B]36.2[/B]  29.6  13.2   5.2   2.0   0.7   0.2   0.0 |  5.68 | 34.41
SL |   60.9 |   0.0   0.4   1.9   7.3  [B]32.4[/B]  31.4  15.2   6.8   2.9   1.1   0.4   0.1 |  5.90 | 33.61
Cg |   57.3 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   7.9  17.1  [B]27.5[/B]  21.3  13.3   7.4   3.5   0.9 |  7.53 | 28.27
Un |   36.2 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.0   7.5  18.3  [B]23.3[/B]  20.3  14.9   9.6   4.0 |  8.55 | 25.28
Da |   31.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.8   5.4  12.1  17.8  [B]20.7[/B]  19.2  15.6   7.3 |  9.06 | 23.77
Pr |   25.2 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   2.4   7.0  12.7  18.7  22.9  [B]23.0[/B]  12.5 |  9.70 | 21.83
Br |   21.9 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.9   5.4  11.0  17.9  24.5  [B]26.9[/B]  11.9 |  9.84 | 21.52
Ya |   18.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.8   4.2   9.3  20.7  [B]63.3[/B] | 11.37 | 16.00

   |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60    61    62    63    64    65 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  502.0 |                                                                             x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.8   1.3   1.9   2.8   4.0   5.3   6.7   8.1   9.3  10.1  [B]10.2[/B]   9.8   8.8   7.1   5.5   3.7   2.0   1.1   0.4 | 56.13
Cr |  191.1 |                                                                                   x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.8   1.3   2.0   2.8   3.8   5.0   6.2   7.4   8.5   8.9   [B]9.3[/B]   9.1   8.2   7.3   6.0   4.4   3.2   2.2   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.0                               | 46.60
Ha |  147.0 |                                                                                               x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.5   2.1   3.1   4.1   5.3   6.7   7.6   8.6   [B]9.3[/B]   9.0   8.7   8.1   6.7   5.5   4.3   2.8   1.9   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                                     | 44.36
Ck |  139.2 |                                                                       x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.1   1.6   2.4   3.2   4.3   5.5   6.5   7.7   8.6   8.8   [B]9.1[/B]   8.7   7.6   6.7   5.4   3.9   2.9   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                                           | 44.20
RP |   67.1 |                                               x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.2   1.7   2.5   3.3   4.3   5.5   6.4   7.3   8.2   [B]8.4   8.4[/B]   8.2   7.3   6.4   5.5   4.2   3.2   2.4   1.5   1.0   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                   | 34.41
SL |   60.9 |                                             0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.1   1.6   2.3   3.2   4.2   5.2   6.4   7.2   7.9   [B]8.5[/B]   8.3   8.1   7.6   6.6   5.5   4.6   3.4   2.5   1.8   1.1   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                   | 33.61
Cg |   57.3 |                           0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.2   1.7   2.6   3.5   4.5   5.8   6.7   7.6   8.4   [B]8.5[/B]   8.4   8.2   7.2   6.1   5.2   4.0   3.0   2.2   1.5   1.0   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                                                     | 28.27
Un |   36.2 |                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.1   1.7   2.5   3.4   4.7   5.6   6.7   7.9   8.3   8.6   [B]8.8[/B]   8.0   7.2   6.4   5.1   4.0   3.1   2.1   1.4   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                                                             | 25.28
Da |   31.6 |               0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.5   2.3   3.2   4.1   5.3   6.3   7.1   8.0   [B]8.3[/B]   8.2   8.0   7.3   6.5   5.5   4.5   3.5   2.7   1.9   1.3   0.9   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                                               | 23.77
Pr |   25.2 |               0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.8   1.5   2.2   3.1   4.2   5.4   6.4   7.4   8.1   [B]8.4   8.4[/B]   8.1   7.3   6.5   5.4   4.4   3.5   2.6   1.9   1.3   0.9   0.6   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             | 21.83
Br |   21.9 |                                 0.1   0.3   0.5   1.3   2.1   3.0   4.6   5.9   7.0   8.4   9.0   9.1   [B]9.2[/B]   8.4   7.4   6.4   5.1   3.9   2.9   2.1   1.4   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                                 | 21.52
Ya |   18.2 |   0.1   0.4   0.7   1.6   2.6   3.7   5.3   6.8   7.7   8.9   [B]9.3[/B]   9.1   8.8   8.0   6.8   5.6   4.4   3.3   2.5   1.7   1.1   0.7   0.4   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                                             | 16.00

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Cr    Ha    Ck    RP    SL    Cg    Un    Da    Pr    Br    Ya |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.3   0.4   0.5   2.0 |  96.5
Ha |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   0.9   1.3   1.7   5.3 |  90.3
Ck |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.1   1.6   1.6   5.5 |  89.4
RP |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.3   2.7   7.8  11.0  15.4  16.7  30.5 |  12.8
SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2         3.3   8.0  11.8  16.2  17.5  28.9 |   9.6
Cg |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   0.9        11.5  14.4  17.3  17.1  12.1 |   1.1
Un |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.0   6.5        12.9  12.3  12.5   5.4 |   0.2
Da |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   1.0   5.5   9.2         8.5   8.1   4.1 |   0.1
Pr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   0.6   3.9   5.6   5.2         5.0   1.9 |   0.0
Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.7   2.7   4.8   4.7   3.7         1.7 |   0.0
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.6   0.5   0.4   0.5       |   0.0

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Qu |  502.0 | 100.0  98.6  80.6  61.3
Cr |  191.1 |  99.9  87.7  47.5  17.1
Ha |  147.0 |  99.5  79.8  32.6  10.4
Ck |  139.2 |  99.4  78.3  30.6   9.3
RP |   67.1 |  84.1  20.4   3.7   0.8
SL |   60.9 |  81.0  17.1   2.8   0.6
Cg |   57.3 |  73.8  11.2   1.5   0.4
Un |   36.2 |  51.1   3.3   0.3   0.1
Da |   31.6 |  41.7   2.0   0.2   0.0
Pr |   25.2 |  30.0   0.9   0.1   0.0
Br |   21.9 |  25.1   0.5   0.0   0.0
Ya |   18.2 |  14.5   0.1   0.0   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Holy crap, games! The top four is starting to look unbreakable, as even 5th place RPI would have to make up more than 2 full wins in just twelve games. The line between home and road ice is a little more fluid, with Union and Colgate in the most danger of falling down and Dartmouth most likely to climb.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]59.9[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Cornell
  3. Clarkson
  4. Harvard
    –––––
  5. RPI
  6. SLU
  7. Union
  8. Colgate
    —————
  9. Dartmouth
  10. Princeton
  11. Brown
  12. Yale
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  585.8 |  [B]92.4[/B]   6.4   1.1   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.09 | 57.66
Cr |  216.7 |   4.6  [B]41.4[/B]  34.7  17.7   1.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.70 | 47.48
Ck |  178.5 |   2.7  [B]41.2[/B]  37.9  16.8   1.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.73 | 47.33
Ha |  138.8 |   0.3  10.7  24.5  [B]52.1[/B]  10.9   1.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.67 | 42.94
RP |   71.9 |   0.0   0.2   1.7  12.0  [B]61.8[/B]  15.2   5.6   2.3   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0 |  5.23 | 35.10
SL |   46.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   8.6  [B]27.9[/B]  24.0  17.7  11.0   6.1   3.0   1.0 |  7.28 | 28.34
Un |   40.8 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   4.8  21.6  [B]23.6[/B]  19.8  14.2   8.9   4.9   2.0 |  7.73 | 26.90
Cg |   57.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   7.2  18.5  20.9  [B]21.0[/B]  15.7   9.8   5.1   1.4 |  7.75 | 26.89
Da |   31.1 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   2.2   7.2  10.7  14.5  18.7  [B]19.1[/B]  16.9  10.7 |  9.18 | 23.02
Pr |   25.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.9   4.3   7.5  11.7  17.4  21.3  [B]21.6[/B]  15.2 |  9.67 | 21.72
Br |   22.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.8   3.5   6.5  10.5  16.7  23.1  [B]25.0[/B]  13.8 |  9.77 | 21.52
Ya |   19.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.1   2.4   5.5  11.4  23.4  [B]55.8[/B] | 11.20 | 17.11

   |  KRACH |     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60    61    62    63    64    65 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  585.8 |                                                                                                     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.0   3.0   4.4   5.9   7.6   9.2  10.5  [B]11.3[/B]  11.2  10.1   8.6   6.3   3.8   2.3   0.9 | 57.66
Cr |  216.7 |                                                                                         x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.8   1.2   1.9   2.8   3.8   5.1   6.4   7.8   8.7   9.5   [B]9.8[/B]   9.1   8.5   7.4   5.5   4.2   3.0   1.7   1.0   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0                               | 47.48
Ck |  178.5 |                                                                                               x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.1   1.8   2.7   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.2   9.5   9.9  [B]10.4[/B]  10.0   8.4   7.2   5.6   3.5   2.4   1.4   0.5   0.3   0.1                                           | 47.33
Ha |  138.8 |                                                                                 0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.4   3.4   4.7   5.7   7.1   8.5   8.8   9.4   [B]9.6[/B]   8.5   7.7   6.6   4.7   3.5   2.5   1.3   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.0                                                       | 42.94
RP |   71.9 |                                                     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   1.0   1.6   2.3   3.3   4.6   5.7   7.0   8.3   8.8   9.2   [B]9.5[/B]   8.4   7.6   6.6   4.8   3.7   2.7   1.6   1.0   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                                     | 35.10
SL |   46.1 |                                 0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.8   1.3   2.2   3.1   4.2   5.8   6.8   7.9   [B]9.1   9.1[/B]   9.0   8.9   7.6   6.4   5.4   3.9   2.7   2.0   1.1   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                                                       | 28.34
Un |   40.8 |                           0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.5   2.7   3.5   4.6   6.5   7.4   8.3   [B]9.6[/B]   9.2   9.0   8.8   7.1   5.9   4.9   3.3   2.3   1.5   0.8   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                                                                               | 26.90
Cg |   57.1 |                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.1   1.9   2.7   3.7   5.1   6.2   7.2   8.5   8.8   8.8   [B]8.9[/B]   7.9   6.9   5.9   4.6   3.4   2.5   1.7   1.1   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                                                 | 26.89
Da |   31.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.3   1.9   2.9   3.9   4.9   6.2   7.1   7.8   [B]8.5   8.5[/B]   8.1   7.7   6.8   5.8   4.8   3.7   2.8   2.1   1.4   0.9   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x                                                                                                 | 23.02
Pr |   25.3 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.5   2.3   3.2   4.4   5.5   6.5   7.5   8.2   8.4   [B]8.5[/B]   8.0   7.3   6.4   5.4   4.3   3.4   2.5   1.8   1.3   0.8   0.5   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             | 21.72
Br |   22.2 |                     0.1   0.3   0.5   1.2   2.1   3.0   4.6   5.9   6.9   8.4   [B]9.1   9.1   9.1[/B]   8.4   7.4   6.4   5.1   3.9   2.9   2.1   1.4   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                                 | 21.52
Ya |   19.9 |   0.3   0.6   1.0   2.3   3.5   4.7   6.7   8.0   8.8   [B]9.9[/B]   9.8   9.1   8.5   7.2   5.7   4.6   3.3   2.3   1.6   1.0   0.6   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                                                                     | 17.11

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Cr    Ck    Ha    RP    SL    Un    Cg    Da    Pr    Br    Ya |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.2   1.0 |  98.4
Ck |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.7 |  98.7
Ha |     x     x     x         0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   1.5   1.8   2.1   6.5 |  87.6
RP |     x     x     x   0.0         1.7   3.0   2.4  10.7  14.4  13.8  38.9 |  13.9
SL |     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.2         6.3   7.3  14.4  16.6  18.0  15.3 |   0.7
Un |     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   4.8         7.7  14.4  14.8  16.1  11.7 |   0.2
Cg |     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.3   4.5   6.5        13.5  15.5  15.3  12.0 |   0.4
Da |     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.2   3.9   5.4   5.9         7.4   7.1   4.7 |   0.1
Pr |     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.1   2.6   3.9   4.6   5.1         5.2   2.8 |   0.1
Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   2.9   3.8   3.3   4.6   4.0         2.6 |   0.0
Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   0.8   0.5   0.7   0.6   0.7       |   0.0

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Qu |  585.8 | 100.0  99.0  81.9  62.2
Cr |  216.7 | 100.0  90.9  48.4  17.1
Ck |  178.5 |  99.9  88.1  40.0  12.4
Ha |  138.8 |  99.3  77.7  24.2   7.2
RP |   71.9 |  85.8  21.1   3.3   0.7
SL |   46.1 |  66.1   6.7   0.7   0.1
Un |   40.8 |  59.7   4.6   0.4   0.1
Cg |   57.1 |  72.2   8.9   1.0   0.2
Da |   31.1 |  40.8   1.6   0.1   0.0
Pr |   25.3 |  31.1   0.8   0.0   0.0
Br |   22.2 |  26.7   0.5   0.0   0.0
Ya |   19.9 |  18.3   0.2   0.0   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
We're past the halfway point with a twelve game weekend and we love to see it. What some people might also love to see is the tight spread between 5th and 12th places, which will lead to some exciting seeding battles. What won't be exciting is the fight for a bye, as there now exists a 4 win gap between 4th and 5th. The race for the Cleary is also starting to approach non-existance, as Quinnipiac leads the next closest team by over three wins (fun note: Quinnipiac ended up outside the top 4 in exactly one of the million simulations).

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]49.8[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Clarkson
  3. Cornell
  4. Harvard
    –––––
  5. RPI
  6. SLU
  7. Union
  8. Colgate
    —————
  9. Princeton
  10. Brown
  11. Dartmouth
  12. Yale
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  519.6 |  [B]95.0[/B]   4.4   0.5   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.06 | 57.21
Ck |  168.3 |   3.6  [B]59.9[/B]  28.7   7.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x |  2.41 | 47.89
Cr |  172.8 |   1.2  28.2  [B]41.2[/B]  28.5   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.00 | 45.15
Ha |  129.8 |   0.1   7.5  29.4  [B]59.8[/B]   2.6   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.59 | 42.28
RP |   54.6 |     x   0.0   0.1   1.9  [B]30.2[/B]  21.5  15.9  11.6   8.3   5.5   3.4   1.6 |  6.78 | 29.05
SL |   45.4 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.5  19.9  [B]20.4[/B]  17.8  14.5  11.0   8.0   5.3   2.6 |  7.33 | 28.02
Un |   42.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.3  12.9  16.8  [B]17.8[/B]  16.4  13.8  10.5   7.2   4.2 |  7.82 | 26.82
Cg |   56.2 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.5  13.8  14.5  15.1  [B]15.5[/B]  14.7  12.1   8.8   5.1 |  7.98 | 26.48
Pr |   34.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.6  11.0  12.1  13.2  14.3  [B]14.7[/B]  13.4  11.4   9.3 |  8.40 | 25.78
Br |   27.3 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   4.4   6.5   8.7  11.4  14.8  18.6  [B]19.7[/B]  15.9 |  9.39 | 23.62
Da |   31.8 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   2.9   4.5   6.3   8.6  11.4  15.0  19.9  [B]31.6[/B] | 10.03 | 21.94
Ya |   27.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   1.6   3.2   5.1   7.7  11.4  17.1  24.2  [B]29.8[/B] | 10.21 | 21.75

   |  KRACH |     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60    61    62    63 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  519.6 |                                                                                                                                         x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.2   2.0   3.1   4.7   6.7   8.6  10.8  12.2  [B]12.3[/B]  12.2  10.4   6.9   5.1   2.4 | 57.21
Ck |  168.3 |                                                                                                                       x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.1   1.8   3.0   4.1   5.7   7.8   8.7  10.3  [B]11.5[/B]  10.3  10.0   8.9   5.8   4.5   3.0   1.1   0.6   0.3                                     | 47.89
Cr |  172.8 |                                                                                               x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.8   1.3   2.1   2.9   4.1   5.7   6.7   8.2   9.7   9.6  [B]10.0[/B]   9.8   7.9   6.9   5.4   3.3   2.3   1.4   0.5   0.3   0.1                                           | 45.15
Ha |  129.8 |                                                                                             0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   1.1   1.9   2.7   3.8   5.5   6.5   8.2   9.9   9.8  10.2  [B]10.3[/B]   8.1   7.1   5.7   3.3   2.3   1.4   0.5   0.2   0.1                                                             | 42.28
RP |   54.6 |                                             0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.5   2.1   3.1   4.9   5.9   7.2   9.2   9.2   9.4  [B]10.1[/B]   8.5   7.4   6.6   4.5   3.3   2.4   1.4   0.8   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                                                             | 29.05
SL |   45.4 |                                             0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.7   1.2   2.4   3.3   4.4   6.6   7.5   8.5  [B]10.3[/B]   9.8   9.3   9.3   7.3   5.9   4.9   3.2   2.1   1.4   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                                                             | 28.02
Un |   42.0 |                                             0.1   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.3   1.9   3.8   4.8   6.0   8.8   9.0   9.5  [B]11.2[/B]   9.4   8.4   8.0   5.5   4.1   3.2   1.7   1.0   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                                                                               | 26.82
Cg |   56.2 |                           0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   1.3   2.0   2.8   4.4   5.5   6.6   8.4   8.8   9.0   [B]9.6[/B]   8.6   7.6   6.9   5.2   4.0   3.1   1.9   1.2   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                                             | 26.48
Pr |   34.6 |                     0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.1   2.9   4.2   5.3   6.3   7.7   8.3   8.5   [B]8.8[/B]   8.3   7.6   6.7   5.5   4.4   3.5   2.5   1.7   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x   0.0     x                                                                               | 25.78
Br |   27.3 |                                 0.2   0.4   0.7   1.8   2.8   3.7   5.9   7.2   8.0   9.6   [B]9.7[/B]   9.3   9.3   7.9   6.4   5.4   3.9   2.8   2.0   1.2   0.8   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                                                       | 23.62
Da |   31.8 |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.7   1.0   1.9   2.8   3.7   5.3   6.3   7.2   8.5   8.7   8.7   [B]8.9[/B]   7.8   6.8   6.0   4.6   3.5   2.6   1.8   1.1   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                                                                                   | 21.94
Ya |   27.9 |                           0.3   0.6   1.0   2.6   3.8   4.8   7.5   8.6   9.0  [B]10.6[/B]  10.0   9.1   8.6   6.9   5.3   4.2   2.8   1.8   1.2   0.6   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                                                                                               | 21.75

0.0 means theme occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ck    Cr    Ha    RP    SL    Un    Cg    Pr    Br    Da    Ya |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x | 100.0
Ck |     x           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  99.9
Cr |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3 |  99.2
Ha |     x     x     x         0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.6   1.0   0.9 |  96.8
RP |     x     x     x   0.0         4.7   6.8   7.2   9.8  13.8  18.7  18.3 |   2.0
SL |     x     x     x   0.0   3.2         6.3   8.2   9.7  14.1  13.9  17.2 |   0.5
Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   2.9   5.1         8.4   9.0  12.2  13.2  13.3 |   0.3
Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   3.6   4.6   6.2         8.9  11.4  11.7  12.3 |   0.5
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   2.8   4.1   6.0   6.8         9.8  10.4  10.6 |   0.7
Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.6   3.8   4.0   4.4   4.7         5.8   5.7 |   0.1
Da |     x     x     x   0.0   1.9   2.0   3.4   3.5   3.7   3.8         3.9 |   0.0
Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   1.7   2.4   2.8   2.1   2.6   3.1   2.8       |   0.0

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Qu |  519.6 | 100.0  98.6  81.4  62.3
Ck |  168.3 | 100.0  89.2  45.5  14.3
Cr |  172.8 |  99.9  89.0  41.5  14.1
Ha |  129.8 |  99.7  82.6  26.9   8.4
RP |   54.6 |  67.1  11.2   1.5   0.3
SL |   45.4 |  59.1   7.0   0.8   0.1
Un |   42.0 |  55.0   5.5   0.6   0.1
Cg |   56.2 |  66.1   9.6   1.2   0.3
Pr |   34.6 |  45.7   3.2   0.3   0.0
Br |   27.3 |  34.2   1.4   0.1   0.0
Da |   31.8 |  39.0   1.7   0.1   0.0
Ya |   27.9 |  34.2   1.1   0.1   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
As the top four solidifies, the bottom gets muddier and muddier with three teams whose most likely final resting place is 12th.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]42.0[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Clarkson
  3. Cornell
  4. Harvard
    –––––
  5. RPI
  6. Union
  7. SLU
  8. Princeton
    —————
  9. Colgate
  10. Dartmouth
  11. Brown
  12. Yale
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  466.0 |  [B]96.1[/B]   3.8   0.2   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.04 | 57.43
Ck |  161.3 |   3.8  [B]80.2[/B]  13.5   2.6   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.15 | 48.53
Cr |  151.6 |   0.2  12.7  [B]43.4[/B]  40.4   2.7   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.35 | 42.59
Ha |  116.2 |   0.0   3.3  42.0  [B]49.8[/B]   4.1   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.57 | 41.46
RP |   56.0 |     x   0.0   0.7   4.3  [B]43.6[/B]  22.6  13.2   7.7   4.3   2.2   1.0   0.3 |  6.03 | 31.42
Un |   51.4 |     x     x   0.1   1.1  18.8  [B]26.5[/B]  22.0  15.3   8.8   4.5   2.0   0.7 |  6.90 | 29.21
SL |   47.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.3  10.7  19.3  [B]22.8[/B]  19.2  13.1   8.0   4.7   2.0 |  7.57 | 27.91
Pr |   38.8 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.2  12.4  15.7  17.2  [B]18.5[/B]  15.0  10.4   6.2   3.2 |  7.76 | 27.50
Cg |   51.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   5.1   8.7  12.7  17.7  [B]21.7[/B]  17.1  11.2   5.7 |  8.66 | 25.27
Da |   31.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.9   2.1   4.2   7.9  13.2  19.1  22.7  [B]29.8[/B] | 10.27 | 21.69
Br |   23.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.8   1.9   3.8   7.0  12.5  19.9  26.4  [B]27.7[/B] | 10.32 | 21.62
Ya |   26.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.8   2.1   3.8   6.7  11.4  18.7  25.8  [B]30.6[/B] | 10.38 | 21.36

   |  KRACH |    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60    61    62    63 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  466.0 |                                                                                                                                         x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.8   4.3   6.2   8.1  10.5  12.3  12.2  [B]12.7[/B]  11.2   7.3   5.6   3.0 | 57.43
Ck |  161.3 |                                                                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.6   2.8   4.7   6.0   8.3  11.3  10.9  12.3  [B]13.2[/B]   8.7   7.6   6.2   2.2   1.4   0.8                                           | 48.53
Cr |  151.6 |                                                                                       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.3   2.1   3.6   4.5   6.2   8.6   9.0  10.3  [B]11.7[/B]   9.7   9.3   8.5   5.1   3.9   2.7   0.9   0.5   0.3                                                                   | 42.59
Ha |  116.2 |                                                                                                         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.2   1.6   2.8   5.2   6.0   8.2  12.0  10.6  11.9  [B]13.5 [/B]  8.4   7.4   6.4   2.0   1.2   0.7                                                                                     | 41.46
RP |   56.0 |                                             0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.8   2.5   3.6   5.9   6.7   8.0  [B]10.4[/B]   9.8   9.8  [B]10.4[/B]   8.0   6.6   5.7   3.5   2.4   1.7   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                                                             | 31.42
Un |   51.4 |                                             0.1   0.2   0.3   1.0   1.5   2.2   4.6   5.5   6.8  10.3   9.8  10.2  [B]11.9[/B]   9.1   7.8   7.3   4.3   3.0   2.2   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                                                                               | 29.21
SL |   47.2 |                                 0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.0   1.6   3.4   4.3   5.6   8.9   8.9   9.8  [B]12.2[/B]   9.8   9.0   8.9   5.5   4.1   3.2   1.4   0.8   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                                                                                           | 27.91
Pr |   38.8 |                     0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.2   2.2   3.1   4.1   5.9   6.9   7.7   [B]9.1[/B]   9.0   8.8   8.8   7.5   6.4   5.5   4.0   2.9   2.1   1.3   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                                 | 27.50
Cg |   51.9 |                     0.1   0.2   0.3   1.1   1.7   2.5   4.7   5.7   6.9   9.7   9.6   9.7  [B]10.9[/B]   8.9   7.5   6.9   4.6   3.3   2.5   1.3   0.8   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                                                                                     | 25.27
Da |   31.5 |   0.2   0.3   0.5   1.6   2.4   3.3   5.8   6.8   7.7  [B]10.3[/B]   9.9   9.5  10.2   8.1   6.7   5.9   3.9   2.7   1.9   1.0   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                                                                                                       | 21.69
Br |   23.9 |               0.6   1.3   1.9   4.1   5.7   6.8   9.5  10.2  10.0  [B]10.7[/B]   9.5   7.8   6.9   5.0   3.6   2.6   1.6   1.0   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                                                                         | 21.62
Ya |   26.5 |         0.4   0.8   1.3   3.1   4.4   5.5   8.1   9.2   9.5  [B]10.8[/B]   9.9   8.7   8.0   6.2   4.6   3.6   2.3   1.5   1.0   0.5   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                                                                                               | 21.36

0.0 means theme occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ck    Cr    Ha    RP    Un    SL    Pr    Cg    Da    Br    Ya |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ck |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   1.1   0.8   1.0 |  96.7
Ha |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   1.5   1.4   1.3 |  95.1
RP |     x     x   0.0     x         2.3   4.2   5.5   9.0  22.8  21.3  22.1 |   5.0
Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   1.1         5.8   6.9  12.7  18.2  19.3  18.7 |   1.2
SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   1.3   3.1         7.8  13.0  14.2  16.5  16.0 |   0.3
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   1.2   3.2   5.2        11.7  14.5  13.8  14.0 |   1.4
Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   1.7   3.2   5.5   7.7         8.1   9.0   9.0 |   0.2
Da |     x     x   0.0     x   0.9   1.3   1.8   3.0   3.7         2.2   2.3 |   0.0
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.7   1.3   2.7   1.7   2.6   2.3         2.2 |   0.0
Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.7   1.5   2.5   2.1   2.3   2.1   2.3       |   0.0

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Qu |  466.0 | 100.0  98.3  81.5  62.1
Ck |  161.3 | 100.0  88.1  48.6  15.8
Cr |  151.6 |  99.8  84.8  36.7  12.6
Ha |  116.2 |  99.5  78.0  26.4   7.9
RP |   56.0 |  71.1  15.0   2.3   0.5
Un |   51.4 |  65.3  11.1   1.5   0.3
SL |   47.2 |  60.4   8.3   1.1   0.2
Pr |   38.8 |  51.9   5.4   0.6   0.1
Cg |   51.9 |  60.3   7.7   1.0   0.3
Da |   31.5 |  35.6   1.5   0.1   0.0
Br |   23.9 |  26.4   0.7   0.1   0.0
Ya |   26.5 |  29.7   1.0   0.1   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
The gap from 5th to 9th is less than a single win now, so we'll have a hell of a good time figuring out the seeding in the last few weeks of the season.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]31.9[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Clarkson
  3. Harvard
  4. Cornell
    –––––
  5. RPI
  6. Union
  7. Colgate
  8. Princeton
    —————
  9. SLU
  10. Brown
  11. Yale
  12. Dartmouth
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  480.8 |  [B]96.9[/B]   3.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                         |  1.03 | 58.54
Ck |  170.5 |   3.1  [B]94.2[/B]   2.6   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x             |  2.00 | 49.86
Ha |  129.3 |   0.0   2.6  [B]91.4[/B]   5.3   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.04 | 42.49
Cr |  106.8 |     x   0.1   4.6  [B]67.7[/B]  16.1   6.6   3.0   1.3   0.4   0.1   0.0     x |  4.41 | 35.87
RP |   55.3 |     x     x   0.5   8.8  [B]24.4[/B]  22.4  17.7  13.1   8.0   3.9   1.1   0.1 |  6.47 | 30.31
Un |   47.4 |     x     x   0.3   6.5  19.8  [B]21.9[/B]  20.1  15.7   9.8   4.4   1.4   0.2 |  6.73 | 29.79
Cg |   60.4 |     x     x   0.0   4.7  16.9  16.8  17.1  [B]17.5[/B]  15.8   8.6   2.2   0.3 |  7.20 | 28.97
Pr |   41.9 |     x   0.0   0.6   5.1  11.9  14.3  16.3  18.0  [B]18.4[/B]   9.8   4.3   1.4 |  7.53 | 28.49
SL |   44.7 |           x   0.0   1.7   8.5  13.8  18.0  [B]20.5[/B]  20.1  12.3   4.6   0.6 |  7.83 | 27.86
Br |   29.7 |           x   0.0   0.2   1.6   3.3   5.8   9.9  17.8  [B]35.2[/B]  20.3   5.8 |  9.54 | 24.21
Ya |   26.4 |               0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.4   2.9   6.4  16.3  [B]39.0[/B]  33.2 | 10.85 | 20.69
Da |   26.5 |                 x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.2   3.3   9.5  27.1  [B]58.5[/B] | 11.36 | 18.93

   |  KRACH |    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60    61    62    63 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  480.8 |                                                                                                                                                                             x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.2   2.2   3.8   5.5   8.3  11.3  12.1  14.5  [B]14.9[/B]  10.0   9.1   5.9 | 58.54
Ck |  170.5 |                                                                                                                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.9   2.3   3.0   4.9   9.4   9.1  11.8  [B]16.6[/B]  10.8  10.9  11.3   3.6   2.6   1.9                                           | 49.86
Ha |  129.3 |                                                                                                                           0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.6   1.2   3.1   3.7   5.8  10.5   9.6  12.0  [B]16.3[/B]  10.2   9.9  10.0   3.0   2.0   1.4                                                                                     | 42.49
Cr |  106.8 |                                                                                             0.1   0.2   0.4   1.6   2.1   3.2   7.3   7.3   9.2  [B]14.7[/B]  10.9  11.0  13.3   6.7   5.1   4.6   1.2   0.7   0.4                                                                                                                   | 35.87
RP |   55.3 |                                                               0.3   0.4   0.7   2.6   3.0   4.3   9.2   8.5   9.8  [B]14.8[/B]  10.4   9.7  11.1   5.5   4.1   3.6   1.0   0.6   0.4                                                                                                                                                 | 30.31
Un |   47.4 |                                                               0.4   0.6   1.0   3.5   4.0   5.3  10.8   9.5  10.3  [B]14.9[/B]   9.9   8.7   9.6   4.5   3.2   2.7   0.7   0.4   0.3                                                                                                                                                 | 29.79
Cg |   60.4 |                                                   0.2   0.3   0.5   1.9   2.5   3.6   7.3   7.5   8.8  [B]12.9[/B]  10.6  10.1  11.5   7.2   5.6   4.9   2.2   1.3   0.9   0.2   0.1   0.0                                                                                                                                           | 28.97
Pr |   41.9 |                                       0.1   0.2   0.3   1.0   1.6   2.3   4.4   5.4   6.6   9.4   9.4   9.6  [B]10.8[/B]   9.0   7.8   7.2   5.0   3.6   2.8   1.5   0.9   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                                                                   | 28.49
SL |   44.7 |                                                         0.7   1.0   1.6   5.4   5.8   7.1  13.3  11.0  10.8  [B]14.3[/B]   8.9   6.9   6.8   2.9   1.7   1.3   0.3   0.1   0.1                                                                                                                                                       | 27.86
Br |   29.7 |                                       1.4   2.0   2.8   7.3   8.0   8.6  [B]13.4[/B]  11.5  10.1  11.4   7.6   5.6   4.8   2.5   1.5   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                                                                                                       | 24.21
Ya |   26.4 |               1.0   1.7   2.4   6.0   7.2   8.0  [B]12.0[/B]  11.2  10.3  11.2   8.6   6.5   5.5   3.4   2.1   1.5   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                                                                                                             | 20.69
Da |   26.5 |   0.9   1.4   1.9   5.5   6.4   7.3  12.0  10.8  10.2  [B]12.4[/B]   8.9   6.9   6.5   3.6   2.3   1.7   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                                                                                                                                           | 18.93

0.0 means theme occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ck    Ha    Cr    RP    Un    Cg    Pr    SL    Br    Ya    Da |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ha |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4 |  99.3
Cr |     x     x     x         0.2   0.3   0.8   0.7   1.0   3.8   8.6  11.7 |  72.4
RP |     x     x     x   0.0         3.0   3.6   5.9   7.1  14.8  20.7  22.4 |   9.2
Un |     x     x     x   0.0   1.7         5.0   6.8   7.8  16.4  19.6  20.1 |   6.8
Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.1   2.8   2.8         7.7   7.8  14.9  15.9  16.3 |   4.7
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.1   2.5   3.0   6.2         8.2  13.5  13.7  13.3 |   5.6
SL |     x     x     x   0.1   2.7   3.4   7.6   8.9        14.4  12.6  11.1 |   1.7
Br |     x     x     x   0.1   2.5   2.2   3.0   2.6   4.4         3.4   2.5 |   0.2
Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.6   0.8   0.4   0.9   1.0   1.0         0.4 |   0.0
Da |     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.4   0.3   0.2   0.1       |   0.0

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Qu |  480.8 | 100.0  98.4  84.4  65.0
Ck |  170.5 | 100.0  88.1  52.7  17.1
Ha |  129.3 |  99.9  80.0  35.3   9.9
Cr |  106.8 |  96.6  69.8  18.5   6.0
RP |   55.3 |  71.3  17.3   2.7   0.6
Un |   47.4 |  64.6  12.4   1.7   0.3
Cg |   60.4 |  70.2  15.8   2.5   0.6
Pr |   41.9 |  55.7   8.0   1.0   0.2
SL |   44.7 |  55.8   7.6   1.0   0.2
Br |   29.7 |  32.6   1.6   0.1   0.0
Ya |   26.4 |  27.0   0.6   0.1   0.0
Da |   26.5 |  26.2   0.4   0.0   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Colgate's on a bit of a run here aren't they! Cornell's still more likely than not to get a bye, but for the first time it's actually looking pretty shaky. Colgate is the most likely team to jump up, but Princeton and RPI aren't completely out of it. Union's also taking a bit of a tumble and could find themselves on the road if they don't shape up soon.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]21.8[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Clarkson
  3. Harvard
  4. Cornell
    –––––
  5. Colgate
  6. RPI
  7. Princeton
  8. Union
    —————
  9. SLU
  10. Brown
  11. Dartmouth
  12. Yale
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  420.9 |  [B]88.1[/B]  11.9   0.0                                                       |  1.12 | 57.13
Ck |  200.4 |  11.9  [B]87.9[/B]   0.1                                                       |  1.88 | 52.96
Ha |  122.9 |   0.0   0.2  [B]97.6[/B]   1.9   0.3   0.1   0.0     x                         |  3.02 | 43.01
Cr |  102.2 |               1.0  [B]56.6[/B]  25.2  11.3   4.8   1.0   0.1   0.0     x       |  4.66 | 34.86
Cg |   68.7 |               0.1  19.9  [B]31.1[/B]  21.2  14.5   8.3   3.8   1.3   0.0     x |  5.76 | 32.02
RP |   58.1 |               0.1   7.8  20.8  [B]32.3[/B]  22.8  10.8   4.3   1.2   0.0   0.0 |  6.25 | 30.98
Pr |   46.4 |               1.0  13.3  17.8  20.6  [B]23.4[/B]  15.4   6.5   1.6   0.4   0.0 |  6.35 | 30.84
Un |   42.7 |                     0.2   2.4   7.7  19.0  [B]32.0[/B]  24.6  12.4   1.6   0.2 |  8.12 | 27.29
SL |   39.3 |                     0.1   1.0   2.9   7.4  16.8  32.3  [B]34.5[/B]   4.5   0.6 |  9.00 | 25.59
Br |   32.0 |                 x   0.2   1.5   3.9   8.1  15.2  26.6  [B]40.3[/B]   3.9   0.2 |  8.98 | 25.45
Da |   26.2 |                       x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.4   6.1  [B]66.2[/B]  25.7 | 11.15 | 18.90
Ya |   21.4 |                             x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.7  23.4  [B]73.4[/B] | 11.69 | 16.97

   |  KRACH |    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  420.9 |                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.6   3.3   7.1   8.2  13.1  [B]19.9[/B]  13.0  15.8  16.5 | 57.13
Ck |  200.4 |                                                                                                                                                                                             0.0   0.1   0.3   1.3   1.7   3.4   9.3   8.2  12.7  [B]23.0[/B]  10.8  12.9  16.3                         | 52.96
Ha |  122.9 |                                                                                                                                 0.2   0.2   0.5   2.3   2.6   4.2   9.9   8.6  11.1  [B]18.2[/B]  10.7  10.6  12.8   3.6   2.5   2.1                                                                   | 43.01
Cr |  102.2 |                                                                                                   2.0   2.0   3.2  12.8   9.5  11.1  [B]22.9[/B]  10.7   8.7  11.4   2.7   1.6   1.4                                                                                                                   | 34.86
Cg |   68.7 |                                                                           1.0   1.3   2.0   7.6   7.0   8.6  [B]17.4[/B]  11.8  11.1  15.0   6.7   4.6   4.3   1.0   0.5   0.3                                                                                                                         | 32.02
RP |   58.1 |                                                                     0.9   1.0   1.8   7.4   6.1   8.5  [B]19.5[/B]  11.0  11.9  18.3   5.2   4.1   4.4                                                                                                                                                 | 30.98
Pr |   46.4 |                                                               0.8   1.1   1.7   5.6   6.0   7.2  13.4  10.9  10.5  [B]13.9[/B]   8.6   6.7   6.7   2.9   1.9   1.4   0.4   0.2   0.1                                                                                                                   | 30.84
Un |   42.7 |                                                   1.7   1.7   2.7  10.8   8.1   9.9  [B]21.0[/B]  10.7  10.1  14.4   3.8   2.5   2.6                                                                                                                                                                   | 27.29
SL |   39.3 |                                             3.1   3.0   4.0  14.7  10.2  10.7  [B]20.8[/B]   9.7   7.9  10.3   2.6   1.6   1.5                                                                                                                                                                         | 25.59
Br |   32.0 |                                             4.1   4.4   5.1  14.4  11.4  10.5  [B]16.9[/B]   9.9   7.4   8.2   3.4   2.0   1.7   0.4   0.2   0.1                                                                                                                                                       | 25.45
Da |   26.2 |         5.7   5.9   6.3  [B]16.5[/B]  12.6  10.8  15.9   9.0   6.2   6.3   2.4   1.3   0.9   0.2   0.1   0.0                                                                                                                                                                                           | 18.90
Ya |   21.4 |   9.3   9.3   8.9  [B]19.6[/B]  14.0  10.6  12.7   6.6   3.9   3.1   1.1   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                                                                                                                                                 | 16.97

0.0 means theme occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    Cr    Cg    RP    Pr    Un    SL    Br    Da    Ya |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |                                                       |   YES
Ck |                                                       |   YES
Ha |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2 |  99.7
Cr |         0.1   0.1   0.0   1.2   2.2   3.1  14.3  21.4 |  57.6
Cg |   0.0         0.7   0.6   5.0   8.9   9.0  22.2  28.5 |  20.0
RP |   0.0   0.4         0.9   7.4  13.7  12.7  27.4  24.0 |   7.9
Pr |   0.0   0.4   0.5         6.1  16.0  15.2  21.0  18.0 |  14.3
Un |   0.0   1.5   1.1   2.9        22.2  21.8   7.6   3.9 |   0.2
SL |   0.0   1.7   1.1   2.5   9.3         9.0   3.0   1.4 |   0.1
Br |   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.4   9.5   8.6         3.8   2.5 |   0.2
Da |     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.1         0.0 |    NO
Ya |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Qu |  420.9 |   [B]BYE[/B]  98.0  82.3  59.7
Ck |  200.4 |   [B]BYE[/B]  90.9  59.5  23.3
Ha |  122.9 | 100.0  76.3  29.5   8.9
Cr |  102.2 |  95.5  62.6  16.5   5.3
Cg |   68.7 |  83.1  28.4   5.5   1.4
RP |   58.1 |  75.3  19.5   3.3   0.8
Pr |   46.4 |  69.6  13.8   2.0   0.4
Un |   42.7 |  54.0   5.1   0.6   0.2
SL |   39.3 |  45.0   3.0   0.4   0.1
Br |   32.0 |  37.1   2.0   0.2   0.0
Da |   26.2 |  23.6   0.4   0.0   0.0
Ya |   21.4 |  16.7   0.2   0.0   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Last edited:
sshablak said:
bump
Click to expand...
I put this all together late on Saturday night and then just forgot to post it. Whoops!
Heading into the final weekend*, three teams are guaranteed a bye, two more are guaranteed a home series, but beyond that, it's a whole cluster of indecision. The line for hosting in the first round is surrounded by four teams separated by less than a point and a half. It's at this time that I will remind you that my simulation does not robustly handle ties in the standings; ties of more than three teams or going beyond the total wins tiebreaker are not handled correctly, which can lead to some inaccurate predictions at the margins.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]10.1[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Clarkson
  3. Harvard
  4. Cornell
    –––––
  5. Colgate
  6. RPI
  7. Princeton
  8. SLU
    —————
  9. Brown
  10. Union
  11. Dartmouth
  12. Yale
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  390.6 |  [B]94.9[/B]   5.1                                                             |  1.05 | 55.58
Ck |  185.2 |   5.1  [B]94.1[/B]   0.8                                                       |  1.96 | 51.83
Ha |  147.6 |     x   0.8  [B]99.2[/B]                                                       |  2.99 | 46.56
Cr |  111.7 |                    [B]86.3[/B]  13.4   0.3                                     |  4.14 | 35.92
Cg |   70.0 |                    13.1  [B]77.6[/B]   8.7   0.6                               |  4.97 | 32.50
RP |   55.8 |                     0.6   7.4  [B]80.2[/B]  10.2   1.5   0.1     x             |  6.05 | 29.74
Pr |   37.7 |                           1.6   5.5  [B]30.0[/B]  21.5  22.1  14.5   4.7   0.2 |  8.20 | 25.74
SL |   38.9 |                                 2.9  [B]24.9[/B]  21.7  20.3  15.2   6.8   8.3 |  8.73 | 25.35
Br |   29.7 |                                 1.3  18.1  22.2  18.2  [B]31.8[/B]   7.6   0.7 |  8.87 | 24.92
Un |   38.9 |                                 1.1  13.4  23.4  [B]24.7[/B]  10.5  19.1   7.8 |  9.19 | 24.36
Da |   33.4 |                                       2.3   8.2  12.1  18.6  [B]40.3[/B]  18.5 | 10.42 | 22.59
Ya |   28.9 |                                       0.5   1.6   2.5   9.4  21.5  [B]64.5[/B] | 11.43 | 20.89

   |  KRACH |    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  390.6 |                                                                                                                                                                                                   2.2   1.9   4.3  21.6  10.1  16.9  [B]43.0[/B] | 55.58
Ck |  185.2 |                                                                                                                                                                           1.2   1.3   3.3  17.0  10.0  18.6  [B]48.6[/B]                         | 51.83
Ha |  147.6 |                                                                                                                                 0.6   0.7   1.5   7.3   5.7   9.8  [B]25.0[/B]  10.9  14.3  24.2                                                 | 46.56
Cr |  111.7 |                                                                                      12.8   7.0   9.9  [B]43.6[/B]   9.6   6.2  10.8                                                                                                             | 35.92
Cg |   70.0 |                                                                    19.3   9.2  10.4  [B]41.4[/B]   8.6   4.6   6.5                                                                                                                               | 32.50
RP |   55.8 |                                                  17.7   8.5   9.6  [B]38.2[/B]   8.6   6.1  11.2                                                                                                                                                 | 29.74
Pr |   37.7 |                          20.5  12.4  10.1  [B]26.4 [/B] 10.6   6.7   9.4   2.0   1.0   0.9                                                                                                                                                       | 25.74
SL |   38.9 |                    12.0   6.2   8.0  [B]33.8[/B]   9.3   9.5  21.2                                                                                                                                                                               | 25.35
Br |   29.7 |                          [B]31.9[/B]  13.2  10.3  31.3   6.3   3.1   3.9                                                                                                                                                                         | 24.92
Un |   38.9 |                    23.9  10.7  10.0  [B]36.0[/B]   7.6   4.6   7.3                                                                                                                                                                               | 24.36
Da |   33.4 |        21.9   9.7   9.3  [B]33.9[/B]   7.9   5.9  11.3                                                                                                                                                                                           | 22.59
Ya |   28.9 |  [B]32.3[/B]  13.4  10.3  30.9   6.3   3.0   3.7                                                                                                                                                                                                 | 20.89

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    RP    Pr    SL    Br    Un    Da    Ya |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------
Qu |                                           |   BYE
Ck |                                           |   BYE
Ha |                                           |   BYE
Cr |     x   0.0   1.1   0.1   1.1   2.6   8.7 |  86.3
Cg |     x   0.2   7.4   1.2   7.7  17.8  52.6 |  13.1
RP |     x   5.2   8.1   9.7  17.4  36.1  22.8 |   0.6
Pr |   0.0     x  11.5  16.5  13.1  11.2   6.2 |    NO
SL |   0.0  10.0     x  19.9   9.6   9.1   0.9 |    NO
Br |   0.0   8.7   8.7     x  10.8   9.2   4.2 |    NO
Un |   0.0  12.4  10.9   9.3     x   3.4   1.9 |    NO
Da |     x   4.6   2.2   1.4   1.6     x   0.5 |    NO
Ya |     x   0.3   0.6   0.2   0.8   0.2     x |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Qu |  390.6 |   ---  98.1  80.2  56.8
Ck |  185.2 |   ---  92.7  53.9  21.0
Ha |  147.6 |   ---  85.2  38.4  13.2
Cr |  111.7 |  98.3  68.4  18.5   6.7
Cg |   70.0 |  80.1  26.6   5.1   1.4
RP |   55.8 |  68.5  14.0   2.2   0.5
Pr |   37.7 |  52.2   4.0   0.4   0.1
SL |   38.9 |  50.9   3.8   0.4   0.1
Br |   29.7 |  39.9   1.9   0.2   0.0
Un |   38.9 |  48.7   3.3   0.4   0.1
Da |   33.4 |  36.8   1.5   0.2   0.0
Ya |   28.9 |  24.7   0.6   0.1   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Mid weekend update!

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]5.4[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Clarkson
  3. Harvard
  4. Cornell
    –––––
  5. Colgate
  6. RPI
  7. Union
  8. Brown
    —————
  9. SLU
  10. Princeton
  11. Yale
  12. Dartmouth
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  334.9 |  [B]90.0[/B]  10.0                                                             |  1.10 | 53.31
Ck |  173.3 |  10.0  [B]90.0[/B]                                                             |  1.90 | 50.39
Ha |  128.8 |             [B]100.0[/B]                                                       |  3.00 | 44.19
Cr |  126.5 |                    [B]97.4[/B]   2.6                                           |  4.03 | 38.21
Cg |   73.3 |                     2.6  [B]97.4[/B]                                           |  4.97 | 33.69
RP |   58.3 |                               [B]100.0[/B]                                     |  6.00 | 31.02
Un |   43.5 |                                      [B]69.0[/B]  20.4   8.9   1.6             |  7.43 | 26.70
Br |   30.3 |                                       9.9  32.5  [B]40.0[/B]  17.6             |  8.65 | 25.61
SL |   38.6 |                                       8.2  25.7  21.1   8.9  [B]32.3[/B]   3.7 |  9.42 | 24.64
Pr |   35.8 |                                      12.8  21.3  15.7  [B]36.7[/B]   8.7   4.8 |  9.21 | 24.58
Ya |   31.1 |                                                  14.3  21.7  [B]32.8[/B]  31.2 | 10.81 | 22.36
Da |   31.5 |                                                     x  13.5  26.2  [B]60.3[/B] | 11.47 | 21.30

   |  KRACH |    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  334.9 |                                                                                                                                                                                            14.5   6.4  12.9  [B]66.2[/B] | 53.31
Ck |  173.3 |                                                                                                                                                                          12.1   6.0  13.1  [B]68.7[/B]                   | 50.39
Ha |  128.8 |                                                                                                                           4.4   3.0   5.7  27.5  10.0  14.2  [B]35.1[/B]                                                 | 44.19
Cr |  126.5 |                                                                                                  17.8   6.7  12.5  [B]63.0[/B]                                                                                           | 38.21
Cg |   73.3 |                                                                                [B]66.2[/B]  12.9   6.4  14.5                                                                                                             | 33.69
RP |   58.3 |                                                              [B]55.6[/B]  11.5   7.7  25.2                                                                                                                               | 31.02
Un |   43.5 |                                33.8   8.8  10.5  [B]46.9[/B]                                                                                                                                                             | 26.70
Br |   30.3 |                                [B]68.7[/B]  13.1   6.0  12.1                                                                                                                                                             | 25.61
SL |   38.6 |                    36.0   9.0  10.1  [B]44.8[/B]                                                                                                                                                                         | 24.64
Pr |   35.8 |                    [B]39.8[/B]  15.8  10.1  24.0   4.8   2.4   3.2                                                                                                                                                       | 24.58
Ya |   31.1 |        [B]44.8[/B]  10.1   9.0  36.0                                                                                                                                                                                     | 22.36
Da |   31.5 |  [B]46.9[/B]  10.5   8.8  33.8                                                                                                                                                                                           | 21.30

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    Un    Br    SL    Pr    Ya    Da |   BYE
------------------------------------------------
Cr |     x     x   0.2     x   0.8   1.6 |  97.4
Cg |     x     x   3.5   4.8  30.4  58.7 |   2.6
RP |     x     x  32.3   8.7  32.8  26.2 |    NO
Un |     x  22.2  10.3  35.0  16.9   5.1 |    NO
Br |   3.3     x   8.9  12.3  14.5   3.4 |    NO
SL |   5.3  18.6     x   5.0     x   5.0 |    NO
Pr |   1.9  16.8  10.8     x   4.7     x |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Qu |  334.9 |   BYE  97.5  76.1  52.8
Ck |  173.3 |   BYE  91.8  54.6  22.4
Ha |  128.8 |   BYE  81.4  34.7  12.2
Cr |  126.5 |  99.7  71.4  23.8   9.6
Cg |   73.3 |  78.6  24.1   5.6   1.6
RP |   58.3 |  69.4  16.1   3.0   0.8
Un |   43.5 |  59.5   6.9   0.9   0.2
Br |   30.3 |  42.2   2.3   0.2   0.0
SL |   38.6 |  47.0   3.3   0.4   0.1
Pr |   35.8 |  46.1   3.0   0.4   0.1
Ya |   31.1 |  31.6   1.3   0.1   0.0
Da |   31.5 |  26.1   0.8   0.1   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Well Princeton and Harvard are keeping this from being a true end of season post, but you get the gist. Even the probabilities here are a little skewed because of how I handle overtime and shootouts, but broad strokes, SLU should feel decently confident that they'll be staying in the North Country next weekend.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]0.78[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Clarkson
  3. Harvard
  4. Cornell
    –––––
  5. Colgate
  6. RPI
  7. Union
  8. SLU
    —————
  9. Brown
  10. Princeton
  11. Dartmouth
  12. Yale
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  347.4 | [B]100.0[/B]                                                                   |  1.00 | 54.00
Ck |  175.5 |       [B]100.0[/B]                                                             |  2.00 | 51.00
Ha |  134.5 |             [B]100.0[/B]                                                       |  3.00 | 45.25
Cr |  131.0 |                   [B]100.0 [/B]                                                |  4.00 | 39.00
Cg |   70.6 |                         [B]100.0[/B]                                           |  5.00 | 33.00
RP |   55.9 |                               [B]100.0[/B]                                     |  6.00 | 30.00
Un |   43.2 |                                     [B]100.0[/B]                               |  7.00 | 27.00
SL |   41.0 |                                            [B]83.6[/B]  16.4                   |  8.16 | 26.00
Br |   29.3 |                                                  [B]77.0[/B]  23.0             |  9.23 | 25.00
Pr |   34.2 |                                            16.4   6.6  [B]77.0[/B]             |  9.61 | 23.75
Da |   31.2 |                                                             [B]100.0[/B]       | 11.00 | 21.00
Ya |   28.6 |                                                                   [B]100.0[/B] | 12.00 | 21.00

   |  KRACH |    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  347.4 |                                                                                                                                                                                                       [B]100.0[/B] | 54.00
Ck |  175.5 |                                                                                                                                                                                     [B]100.0[/B]                   | 51.00
Ha |  134.5 |                                                                                                                                      16.4   6.6  12.6  [B]64.4[/B]                                                 | 45.25
Cr |  131.0 |                                                                                                             [B]100.0[/B]                                                                                           | 39.00
Cg |   70.6 |                                                                         [B]100.0[/B]                                                                                                                               | 33.00
RP |   55.9 |                                                       [B]100.0[/B]                                                                                                                                                 | 30.00
Un |   43.2 |                                     [B]100.0[/B]                                                                                                                                                                   | 27.00
SL |   41.0 |                               [B]100.0[/B]                                                                                                                                                                         | 26.00
Br |   29.3 |                         [B]100.0[/B]                                                                                                                                                                               | 25.00
Pr |   34.2 |              [B]64.4[/B]  12.6   6.6  16.4                                                                                                                                                                         | 23.75
Da |   31.2 | [B]100.0[/B]                                                                                                                                                                                                       | 21.00
Ya |   28.6 | [B]100.0[/B]                                                                                                                                                                                                       | 21.00

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    SL    Br    Pr    Da     Ya
-----------------------------------
Cg |                          100.0
RP |                   100.0      
Un |        23.0  77.0            
SL |        77.0   6.6            
Pr |  16.4                        

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Qu |  347.4 |   ---  97.8  76.9  53.5
Ck |  175.5 |   ---  91.5  53.1  21.5
Ha |  134.5 |   ---  82.4  36.7  12.7
Cr |  131.0 |   ---  73.6  23.9   9.9
Cg |   70.6 |  79.9  22.5   4.8   1.4
RP |   55.9 |  70.7  14.8   2.5   0.6
Un |   43.2 |  59.9   7.3   0.9   0.2
SL |   41.0 |  61.0   5.0   0.6   0.2
Pr |   34.2 |  41.8   2.1   0.2   0.1
Br |   29.3 |  37.3   1.7   0.2   0.0
Da |   31.2 |  29.3   0.8   0.1   0.0
Ya |   28.6 |  20.1   0.3   0.0   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Playoffs! As the sim has said for a while, Quinnipiac is the odds-on favorite to win the ECAC tournament, with only the other bye teams having any significant likelihood of knocking them off. There are no expected upsets in the first round, though Princeton is decently likely to knock off Union.

Simulated Whitelaw Cup probabilities (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]11.3[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Code: 
      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
Qu |  348.1 |   ---  [B]97.9[/B]  [B]76.9[/B]  [B]53.3[/B]
Ck |  176.5 |   ---  [B]91.6[/B]  [B]52.5[/B]  21.2
Ha |  139.2 |   ---  [B]83.1[/B]  37.6  13.2
Cr |  131.2 |   ---  [B]73.3[/B]  23.7   9.8
Cg |   71.4 |  [B]79.9[/B]  22.8   4.9   1.4
RP |   56.4 |  [B]70.6[/B]  14.4   2.4   0.6
Un |   43.4 |  [B]59.9[/B]   7.2   0.9   0.2
SL |   41.2 |  [B]62.3[/B]   5.1   0.6   0.2
Br |   29.5 |  37.7   1.8   0.2   0.0
Pr |   33.3 |  40.1   1.7   0.2   0.0
Da |   31.6 |  29.4   0.8   0.1   0.0
Ya |   28.9 |  20.1   0.3   0.0   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Future Round Matchups:
Code: 
 QF|    Cg    RP    Un    SL    Br    Pr    Da    Ya
Qu |                    21.0  12.8  22.6  23.5  20.1
Ck |              33.8  28.1  17.0  15.1   5.9      
Ha |        56.4  22.6  11.6   7.1   2.4            
Cr |  79.9  14.2   3.6   1.5   0.9                  

 SF|    Ha    Cr    Cg    RP    Un    SL    Br    Pr    Da    Ya
Qu |        54.7  16.7  12.5   6.7   4.2   1.5   1.2   0.4      
Ck |  74.5  11.0   3.7   0.4   0.1   0.6   0.2   0.4   0.4   0.3
Ha |         6.1   2.0   0.2   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Cr |                     0.9   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0
Cg |                     0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0      
RP |                           0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0
Un |                                 0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0
SL |                                             0.0   0.0     x
Br |                                             0.0   0.0     x
Pr |                                                   0.0      

  F|    Ck    Ha    Cr    Cg    RP    Un    SL    Br    Pr    Da    Ya
Qu |  39.5  28.2   6.9   1.6   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0            
Ck |         0.8   9.0   1.7   1.1   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0            
Ha |               6.7   1.3   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0
Cr |                           0.4   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0
Cg |                           0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0      
RP |                                 0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0
Un |                                       0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0
SL |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0
Br |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0
Pr |                                                         0.0   0.0
Da |                                                               0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible
 
After game one, nothing really changed for the overall odds because we mostly went chalk (*grumble grumble*).

Simulated Whitelaw Cup probabilities (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]10.1[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Code: 
      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
Qu |  351.3 |   ---  97.5  76.7  53.1
Ck |  178.2 |   ---  90.6  51.9  21.0
Ha |  141.3 |   ---  84.1  38.3  13.6
Cr |  132.7 |   ---  72.9  23.6   9.7
Cg |   71.1 |  91.1  25.6   5.4   1.5
RP |   53.9 |  36.5   6.8   1.1   0.3
Un |   45.8 |  83.4  11.4   1.5   0.4
SL |   44.0 |  84.9   7.6   1.0   0.3
Br |   28.0 |  15.1   0.7   0.1   0.0
Pr |   31.6 |  16.6   0.8   0.1   0.0
Da |   35.4 |  63.5   1.8   0.3   0.1
Ya |   30.2 |   8.9   0.2   0.0   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Future Round Matchups:
Code: 
 QF|    Cg    RP    Un    SL    Br    Pr    Da    Ya
Qu |                    23.6   4.2   5.5  57.9   8.9
Ck |              27.7  47.9   8.5  10.2   5.6      
Ha |        33.3  50.9  12.7   2.3   0.9            
Cr |  91.1   3.2   4.7   0.8   0.1                  

 SF|    Ha    Cr    Cg    RP    Un    SL    Br    Pr    Da    Ya
Qu |        54.3  18.9   5.9  10.3   6.5   0.6   0.7   0.4      
Ck |  74.4  10.2   3.7   0.1   0.1   0.7   0.1   0.1   1.2   0.1
Ha |         6.9   2.5   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0
Cr |                     0.6   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Cg |                     0.2   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0      
RP |                           0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0
Un |                                 0.0   0.0         0.0     x
SL |                                             0.0   0.0     x
Br |                                             0.0   0.0     x
Pr |                                                   0.0      

  F|    Ck    Ha    Cr    Cg    RP    Un    SL    Br    Pr    Da    Ya
Qu |  38.9  28.7   6.9   1.7   0.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0            
Ck |         0.9   9.0   2.0   0.5   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0            
Ha |               6.6   1.4   0.0   0.2   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0
Cr |                           0.2   0.4   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0
Cg |                           0.1   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0      
RP |                                 0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0
Un |                                       0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0
SL |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0
Br |                                                   0.0   0.0     x
Pr |                                                         0.0   0.0
Da |                                                               0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible
 
iowabasedtraveler said:
Lugnut92, exactly how old are you? You don’t hear kids at the neighborhood gin mill use the term ‘chalk’ much anymore.
Click to expand...
Look at the number at the end of my screen name and have a guess.
Game two brings two series to a close with the expected winner and forces games three in two other series. Both home teams will be expected to win tomorrow, but neither is more than about a 60/40 favorite.

Simulated Whitelaw Cup probabilities (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]4.62[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Code: 
      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
Qu |  353.6 |   ---  97.6  77.1  53.9
Ck |  173.9 |   ---  89.4  50.8  20.3
Ha |  141.5 |   ---  81.8  37.9  13.4
Cr |  130.4 |   ---  70.9  23.2   9.4
Cg |   72.5 |   100  29.1   6.3   1.8
RP |   55.7 |  62.6  12.1   2.0   0.5
Un |   48.3 |   100  13.6   1.8   0.5
SL |   43.1 |  60.1   3.5   0.5   0.1
Br |   28.6 |  39.9   1.2   0.1   0.0
Da |   33.2 |  37.4   0.8   0.1   0.0
Pr |   30.1 |     x              
Ya |   28.6 |     x                  

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Future Round Matchups:
Code: 
 QF|    Cg    RP    Un    SL    Br    Da
Qu |                    37.5  25.0  37.4
Ck |              62.6  22.5  14.9      
Ha |        62.6  37.4                  
Cr |   100                              

 SF|    Ha    Cr    Cg    RP    Un    SL    Br    Da
Qu |        50.7  20.8  10.4  12.8   2.2   0.8     x
Ck |  71.4  11.2   4.6     x     x   1.1   0.4   0.7
Ha |         7.2   3.0     x     x   0.1   0.0   0.1
Cr |                     1.2   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0
Cg |                     0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0
RP |                           0.0     x     x      
Un |                                 0.0   0.0    


  F|    Ck    Ha    Cr    Cg    RP    Un    SL    Br    Da
Qu |  38.3  28.5   7.6   2.2   0.4   0.1     x     x      
Ck |         0.8   8.2   2.1   0.9   0.4     x     x      
Ha |               6.2   1.6     x   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.1
Cr |                           0.4   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0
Cg |                           0.1   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0
RP |                                 0.1   0.0   0.0      
Un |                                       0.0   0.0   0.0
SL |                                                   0.0
Br |                                                   0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible
 
It took an extra day, but all of the teams that were "supposed" to win did win. All four teams that had byes are heavy favorites, but there's a pretty big difference between a 70% favorite (Cornell) and a 97% favorite (Quinnipiac). In the end, we'll just have to wait and see!

Simulated Whitelaw Cup probabilities (Monte Carlo simulation of 10,368 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Code: 
      KRACH |    QF    SF     F
Qu |  353.2 |  96.8  76.6  53.5
Ck |  174.8 |  88.1  50.4  20.4
Ha |  141.3 |  79.7  36.9  13.1
Cr |  130.7 |  71.0  23.9   9.7
Cg |   72.4 |  29.0   6.5   1.8
RP |   57.7 |  20.3   3.5   0.9
Un |   48.1 |  11.9   1.5   0.4
SL |   42.7 |   3.2   0.7   0.2

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Future Round Matchups:
Code: 
 SF|    Ha    Cr    Cg    RP    Un    SL
Qu |        48.2  19.7  17.3  11.6      
Ck |  67.9  12.3   5.0               2.8
Ha |         8.1   3.3               0.3
Cr |                     2.1   0.2   0.1
Cg |                     0.8   0.1   0.0
RP |                           0.1      

  F|    Ck    Ha    Cr    Cg    RP    Un    SL
Qu |  37.6  27.5   8.4   2.4   0.7            
Ck |         1.0   8.1   2.1   1.6            
Ha |               5.9   1.5         0.7   0.3
Cr |                           0.8   0.5   0.2
Cg |                           0.2   0.2   0.1
RP |                                 0.1   0.1
Un |                                       0.0

0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible
 
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