ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

lugnut92 · Oct 30, 2017

Another year, another season of simulated KRACH standings. The first week of the season had five league games, so this is a more legitimate first post than most years have been. Anyway, it's crazy early, so we have to throw in the fake tie to keep KRACH real and finite. Usually I hold off until like January to start posting the playoff matchup possibilities, but I generate them immediately anyway, so whatever. Look at those way too early numbers too.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^60.59 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Princeton
Cornell
Quinnipiac
Harvard
—————
Clarkson
Colgate
Yale
Brown
—————
Union
RPI
SLU
Dartmouth

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pr |  322.7 |  [B]41.4[/B]  25.0  15.3   9.0   4.9   2.5   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  2.27 | 31.42
Cr |  271.3 |  [B]27.2[/B]  25.4  18.8  12.5   7.8   4.4   2.3   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  2.79 | 30.09
Qu |  225.4 |  16.2  20.3  [B]20.4[/B]  16.3  11.6   7.3   4.3   2.3   1.0   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  3.46 | 28.58
Ha |  168.3 |   6.9  11.8  16.0  [B]18.0[/B]  16.4  12.6   8.7   5.6   3.0   0.8   0.1   0.0 |  4.50 | 26.41
Ck |  164.3 |   5.6  10.1  14.2  [B]17.1[/B]  16.9  13.8  10.1   6.8   3.9   1.2   0.2   0.0 |  4.79 | 25.84
Cg |  119.2 |   1.4   3.5   6.5  10.2  14.0  [B]16.7[/B]  16.3  14.6  11.1   4.5   0.9   0.1 |  6.27 | 22.96
Ya |  100.0 |   0.5   1.5   3.4   6.2  10.0  14.5  18.1  [B]19.5[/B]  16.8   7.7   1.7   0.3 |  7.07 | 21.37
Br |  100.0 |   0.5   1.5   3.3   6.1  10.0  14.5  18.2  [B]19.5[/B]  16.9   7.6   1.7   0.3 |  7.08 | 21.37
Un |   73.1 |   0.2   0.8   2.1   4.2   7.6  11.9  16.6  20.8  [B]23.9[/B]   9.2   2.2   0.4 |  7.54 | 20.40
RP |   59.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.6   7.4  16.3  [B]42.3[/B]  19.8   7.8 |  9.81 | 14.98
SL |   26.6 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.2   3.9  15.1  [B]39.7[/B]  39.5 | 11.10 | 10.73
Da |   24.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   2.5  11.2  33.8  [B]51.5[/B] | 11.32 |  9.87

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pr |  322.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.6   2.5   3.7   5.1   6.7   8.2   9.6  10.4  [B]10.5[/B]  10.0   8.8   7.2   5.4   3.7   2.3   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 31.42
Cr |  271.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.2   2.0   3.0   4.2   5.7   7.2   8.6   9.7  [B]10.2[/B]  10.1   9.4   8.1   6.5   4.9   3.3   2.1   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 30.09
Qu |  225.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.6   2.5   3.7   5.1   6.5   7.9   9.1   9.8  [B]10.0[/B]   9.6   8.6   7.2   5.6   4.1   2.8   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 28.58
Ha |  168.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.1   1.8   2.7   4.0   5.4   6.8   8.2   9.3   [B]9.9[/B]   9.8   9.3   8.2   6.9   5.3   3.9   2.6   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 26.41
Ck |  164.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.6   2.4   3.5   4.8   6.2   7.6   8.7   9.5   [B]9.8[/B]   9.5   8.6   7.4   6.0   4.5   3.2   2.1   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 25.84
Cg |  119.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.5   2.3   3.4   4.7   6.1   7.5   8.6   9.4   [B]9.7[/B]   9.4   8.6   7.4   6.0   4.6   3.3   2.3   1.4   0.8   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 22.96
Ya |  100.0 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.7   4.1   5.5   7.1   8.5   9.6  [B]10.2[/B]  10.1   9.3   8.1   6.6   5.1   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 21.37
Br |  100.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.7   4.0   5.5   7.1   8.6   9.7  [B]10.2[/B]  10.1   9.3   8.1   6.6   5.1   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.37
Un |   73.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   2.6   4.0   5.6   7.2   8.8   9.8  [B]10.3[/B]  10.2   9.4   8.1   6.5   5.0   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.40
RP |   59.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.1   4.6   6.3   8.1   9.4  10.4  [B]10.5[/B]  10.1   8.9   7.4   5.8   4.2   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.98
SL |   26.6 |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.7   3.1   5.0   7.0   9.0  10.5  [B]11.3[/B]  11.1  10.2   8.7   6.8   5.1   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.8   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.73
Da |   24.6 |   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.7   4.5   6.7   8.9  10.7  [B]11.6  11.6[/B]  10.6   9.1   7.2   5.3   3.6   2.4   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.87

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Pr    Cr    Qu    Ha    Ck    Cg    Ya    Br    Un    RP    SL    Da |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pr |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.3   1.5   3.1   3.5 |  90.7
Cr |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.4   0.7   2.7   5.2   5.8 |  83.9
Qu |   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.5   0.8   0.8   1.3   4.7   8.2   9.0 |  73.2
Ha |   0.0   0.0   0.1         0.3   1.1   1.8   1.8   2.7   8.7  13.1  13.8 |  52.7
Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3         1.3   2.2   2.2   3.3   9.7  13.9  14.6 |  47.1
Cg |   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   0.8         4.4   4.5   6.8  14.1  15.2  15.1 |  21.7
Ya |   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.0   3.5         6.2   8.9  15.2  13.3  12.7 |  11.5
Br |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.0   3.5   6.3         9.0  15.1  13.4  12.7 |  11.4
Un |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.3   4.3   7.0   7.1        14.1  11.2  10.4 |   7.4
RP |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.6   1.7   2.7   2.7   2.2         1.6   1.3 |   0.4
SL |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.3   0.4   0.3         0.1 |   0.0
Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.0       |   0.0

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Nov 5, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

We're still crazy early in the season, but at least everyone has played a couple league games now. Cornell is apparently going to win everything forever and SLU is gonna do real bad.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^54.87 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Clarkson
Colgate
Princeton
—————
Quinnipiac
Harvard
Union
Dartmouth
—————
Yale
RPI
Brown
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have a hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  876.8 |  [B]92.2[/B]   7.0   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.09 | 38.07
Ck |  243.3 |   6.3  [B]53.0[/B]  21.3  10.7   5.2   2.3   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  2.68 | 30.71
Cg |  146.1 |   0.8  15.1  [B]25.4[/B]  22.5  15.8  10.1   5.8   3.0   1.2   0.3   0.0   0.0 |  4.15 | 26.80
Pr |  171.9 |   0.5  14.4  [B]24.6[/B]  22.2  16.5  10.7   6.3   3.2   1.3   0.3   0.1   0.0 |  4.23 | 26.60
Qu |  146.2 |   0.1   5.9  13.4  18.1  [B]20.6[/B]  17.1  12.2   7.6   3.7   1.1   0.3   0.0 |  5.23 | 24.37
Ha |  104.4 |   0.1   3.1   8.6  13.3  17.8  [B]20.1[/B]  16.8  11.6   6.2   1.8   0.5   0.1 |  5.86 | 23.00
Un |   67.2 |   0.0   0.6   2.9   6.1  10.7  16.2  20.7  [B]21.0[/B]  15.1   5.0   1.3   0.2 |  7.02 | 20.67
Da |   71.4 |   0.0   0.7   2.5   5.3   9.3  14.7  20.6  [B]22.4[/B]  15.7   6.2   2.1   0.5 |  7.21 | 20.28
Ya |   60.4 |   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.7   3.8   7.6  13.2  21.0  [B]29.3[/B]  14.8   6.1   1.8 |  8.34 | 17.86
RP |   42.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.8   5.0  12.6  28.4  [B]30.3[/B]  21.0 | 10.40 | 12.84
Br |   32.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.2   3.5  10.1  27.8  [B]31.9[/B]  24.9 | 10.59 | 12.39
SL |   23.4 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   4.7  14.4  27.5  [B]51.4[/B] | 11.21 | 10.43

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  876.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.7   4.5   7.0   9.8  12.6  14.4  [B]14.7[/B]  12.9   9.6   5.8   2.6   0.7 | 38.07
Ck |  243.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.2   2.0   3.1   4.6   6.2   8.0   9.6  10.7  [B]11.1[/B]  10.6   9.4   7.7   5.7   3.9   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 30.71
Cg |  146.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.1   3.2   4.6   6.2   7.8   9.2  10.3  [B]10.7[/B]  10.2   9.2   7.6   5.9   4.2   2.7   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 26.80
Pr |  171.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.3   3.4   4.9   6.4   8.1   9.5  10.4  [B]10.7[/B]  10.1   9.0   7.4   5.6   3.9   2.5   1.4   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.60
Qu |  146.2 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.6   2.6   3.8   5.3   6.9   8.5   9.6  [B]10.4[/B]  10.3   9.7   8.5   6.9   5.2   3.6   2.3   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 24.37
Ha |  104.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.0   4.4   6.1   7.8   9.1  10.2  [B]10.6[/B]  10.2   9.2   7.8   6.0   4.5   3.0   1.9   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 23.00
Un |   67.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.1   2.1   3.3   5.0   6.8   8.6   9.9  [B]10.8  10.8[/B]  10.1   8.8   7.1   5.3   3.7   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.67
Da |   71.4 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   2.6   4.0   5.7   7.4   9.0  10.1  [B]10.7[/B]  10.4   9.5   8.1   6.5   4.8   3.3   2.1   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.28
Ya |   60.4 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.6   6.5   8.3   9.9  10.9  [B]11.2[/B]  10.4   9.1   7.4   5.6   3.9   2.6   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.86
RP |   42.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   2.9   4.6   6.6   8.6  10.4  11.2  [B]11.3[/B]  10.5   9.1   7.2   5.4   3.8   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.84
Br |   32.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   3.3   5.4   7.6   9.8  11.3  [B]11.9[/B]  11.5  10.3   8.4   6.3   4.4   2.9   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.39
SL |   23.4 |     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   3.4   5.4   7.8   9.9  11.4  [B]11.9[/B]  11.4  10.2   8.3   6.3   4.5   3.0   1.8   1.0   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.43

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ck    Cg    Pr    Qu    Ha    Un    Da    Ya    RP    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.5   2.2   2.3   3.4 |  91.2
Cg |     x   0.0         0.1   0.2   0.3   0.9   1.1   2.8   8.5   9.1  11.9 |  63.8
Pr |     x   0.0   0.1         0.2   0.3   1.0   1.2   3.0   9.0   9.6  12.5 |  61.7
Qu |     x   0.0   0.1   0.1         0.7   2.0   2.4   6.0  14.0  14.8  17.3 |  37.6
Ha |     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5         2.9   3.8   8.1  16.4  16.7  17.7 |  25.0
Un |     x   0.0   0.3   0.3   1.0   1.7         5.7  13.5  15.9  16.2  14.1 |   9.7
Da |     x   0.0   0.3   0.3   1.0   1.6   5.1        14.3  15.9  15.5  13.1 |   8.5
Ya |     x   0.0   0.4   0.5   1.4   2.8   7.4   7.0         9.6   9.5   6.9 |   2.5
RP |     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.7   0.9   1.9   2.0         0.9   0.7 |   0.1
Br |     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.3   1.1   1.0   1.4   0.7         0.3 |   0.0
SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.5   0.3   0.2       |   0.0

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Nov 12, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Cornell should go ahead and lose a game. There are a few sizeable gaps opening up, but the 6-10 range is pretty tight, with less than 2 points separating Harvard from RPI.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]49.14[/SUP] possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Clarkson
Colgate
Union
—————
Princeton
Harvard
Quinnipiac
Yale
—————
Dartmouth
RPI
Brown
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have a tie against a hypothetical average team to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  992.9 |  [B]88.2[/B]  10.9   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.13 | 38.89
Ck |  296.1 |  10.6  [B]65.2[/B]  17.3   5.1   1.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.22 | 33.36
Cg |  155.2 |   0.9  14.7  [B]39.3[/B]  26.8  13.6   3.3   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.54 | 28.70
Un |  109.3 |   0.3   6.4  28.5  [B]34.9[/B]  20.6   6.2   2.2   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.02 | 27.15
Pr |  134.9 |   0.0   2.7  12.2  24.4  [B]35.1[/B]  14.0   6.3   3.0   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.0 |  4.88 | 24.96
Ha |   64.2 |   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.0   8.8  [B]20.0[/B]  20.0  17.5  14.2  10.3   4.7   0.7 |  7.50 | 18.96
Qu |   83.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.5   2.3   7.9  18.7  [B]18.7[/B]  17.1  14.9  11.9   6.9   1.2 |  7.72 | 18.52
Ya |   55.2 |     x   0.0   0.3   1.5   5.1  13.6  17.4  [B]18.8[/B]  18.6  16.1   7.6   0.8 |  8.09 | 17.74
Da |   50.4 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.3   4.5  12.2  16.4  18.4  [B]18.8[/B]  16.9   9.4   1.8 |  8.27 | 17.41
RP |   59.4 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.7  10.4  14.6  17.4  19.0  [B]19.2[/B]  13.6   2.5 |  8.62 | 16.72
Br |   33.5 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.3   3.2   6.2  11.5  21.5  [B]44.8[/B]  11.1 | 10.26 | 13.20
SL |   17.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.2   3.5  12.8  [B]81.8[/B] | 11.74 |  8.38

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  992.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.5   4.5   7.3  10.6  13.8  [B]15.8[/B]  15.6  13.0   8.8   4.3   1.4 | 38.89
Ck |  296.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.2   4.8   6.8   8.9  10.8  12.0  [B]12.1[/B]  11.2   9.5   7.0   4.8   2.7   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0 | 33.36
Cg |  155.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.1   1.8   3.0   4.5   6.4   8.2  10.0  11.0  [B]11.5[/B]  10.8   9.5   7.5   5.6   3.7   2.2   1.2   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 28.70
Un |  109.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.3   3.8   5.5   7.6   9.5  11.0  [B]11.6[/B]  11.5  10.2   8.5   6.3   4.4   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 27.15
Pr |  134.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.7   4.2   5.9   7.7   9.4  10.6  [B]11.2[/B]  10.8   9.8   8.1   6.2   4.2   2.7   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 24.96
Ha |   64.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   2.8   4.4   6.1   8.1   9.7  10.8  [B]11.1[/B]  10.7   9.4   7.7   5.8   4.1   2.7   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.96
Qu |   83.4 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.3   3.5   5.1   6.9   8.6   9.9  [B]10.7  10.7[/B]  10.1   8.7   7.1   5.2   3.7   2.3   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.52
Ya |   55.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.9   4.6   6.8   8.8  10.7  11.5  [B]11.7[/B]  10.7   9.2   7.2   5.3   3.5   2.2   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.74
Da |   50.4 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.1   3.6   5.3   7.4   9.2  10.6  [B]11.2[/B]  11.1  10.1   8.5   6.6   4.8   3.2   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.41
RP |   59.4 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.6   6.6   8.5  10.4  11.3  [B]11.6[/B]  10.7   9.3   7.4   5.4   3.5   2.2   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.72
Br |   33.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   3.5   5.6   8.2  10.4  12.1  [B]12.4[/B]  11.9  10.1   8.1   5.9   4.0   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.20
SL |   17.9 |     x   0.3   1.0   2.6   5.0   8.0  10.7  12.8  [B]13.2[/B]  12.5  10.6   8.3   5.9   3.9   2.4   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.38
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ck    Cg    Un    Pr    Ha    Qu    Ya    Da    RP    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.2 |  98.3
Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.4   0.6   0.5   0.9   1.0   3.3  11.5 |  81.7
Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.6   1.1   1.0   1.4   2.2   5.6  17.7 |  70.0
Pr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.9   2.4   2.9   3.6   4.9  12.1  30.6 |  39.4
Ha |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4         7.3   9.0  10.6  11.6  16.5  10.8 |   3.8
Qu |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   6.4         9.4  10.0  10.4  15.8   9.8 |   2.8
Ya |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   6.9   7.5         9.3  11.0  12.8   6.9 |   1.9
Da |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   5.8   7.1   9.5        10.5  12.2   6.0 |   1.5
RP |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   6.1   6.7   8.5   8.8        10.2   4.4 |   0.6
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.6   2.0   2.1   2.1   2.4         0.5 |   0.1
SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Kepler · Nov 12, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

lugnut92 said:
Cornell should go ahead and lose a game.

No need, you have that dummy tie to make the math work.

lugnut92 · Nov 19, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Cornell lost! Hooray! No more hypothetical tie! Generally this means that things will seem more dire for a while for those teams who don't have many wins. Everything to do with the Ivies remains a little screwy because of their low games played, but it'll work itself out eventually. Anyway, we're now past the quarter pole (yes I'm using that wrong I don't care) and no one plays any league games for a couple weekends (not counting stupid Tuesday games), so this information will have to tide us over for a bit.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1045.33 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Clarkson
Cornell
Union
Colgate
—————
Quinnipiac
Princeton
RPI
Harvard
—————
Dartmouth
Yale
Brown
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  605.2 |  [B]73.9[/B]  25.1   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.27 | 39.07
Cr |  596.2 |  25.6  [B]68.2[/B]   5.5   0.6   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.81 | 36.85
Un |   98.0 |   0.3   3.5  [B]46.4[/B]  37.8   9.3   2.2   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.61 | 29.08
Cg |  119.0 |   0.2   3.1  [B]42.6[/B]  39.5  10.9   3.0   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.70 | 28.83
Qu |   91.9 |   0.0   0.0   2.5  11.3  [B]37.8[/B]  29.2  12.4   4.4   1.6   0.5   0.2   0.0 |  5.61 | 22.89
Pr |   70.3 |   0.0   0.0   2.0   9.2  31.4  [B]33.9[/B]  14.3   5.7   2.3   0.9   0.3   0.0 |  5.82 | 22.35
RP |   43.5 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.9   5.9  15.6  [B]29.4[/B]  20.2  13.4   8.5   5.3   0.7 |  7.67 | 18.05
Ha |   27.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.4   7.4  16.9  [B]22.9[/B]  20.1  15.6  11.8   2.6 |  8.57 | 16.01
Da |   24.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.8   5.8  14.1  21.1  [B]22.2[/B]  17.7  13.8   3.4 |  8.81 | 15.52
Ya |   20.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.4   6.1  12.8  19.8  26.2  [B]28.4[/B]   5.1 |  9.68 | 13.71
Br |   20.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.5   5.7  12.0  19.1  26.8  [B]29.5[/B]   5.2 |  9.72 | 13.71
SL |   10.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.6   3.9  10.8  [B]82.9[/B] | 11.73 |  7.92

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  605.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   2.0   3.8   6.7  10.2  13.9  16.3  [B]16.5[/B]  13.8   9.3   4.4   1.6 | 39.07
Cr |  596.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.5   4.6   7.4  11.0  14.3  [B]16.2[/B]  15.9  12.6   8.3   3.8   1.3     x     x | 36.85
Un |   98.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.5   5.3   7.7   9.8  11.7  [B]12.5[/B]  12.3  10.7   8.7   6.1   3.9   2.1   1.1   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 29.08
Cg |  119.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.4   3.8   5.9   8.1  10.4  12.0  [B]12.7[/B]  11.9  10.5   8.0   5.5   3.3   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 28.83
Qu |   91.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   3.8   5.8   8.1  10.2  11.9  [B]12.4[/B]  12.1  10.3   8.2   5.6   3.5   1.9   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.89
Pr |   70.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.8   3.2   4.9   7.1   9.3  11.2  12.0  [B]12.2[/B]  10.9   9.0   6.7   4.6   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.35
RP |   43.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   3.9   5.7   7.9   9.8  11.4  [B]11.9[/B]  11.6  10.1   8.2   6.0   4.0   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.05
Ha |   27.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.4   4.0   6.1   8.2  10.3  11.6  [B]12.0[/B]  11.2   9.8   7.8   5.7   3.8   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.01
Da |   24.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   3.1   4.9   7.3   9.4  11.1  [B]11.9[/B]  11.7  10.6   8.8   6.7   4.7   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.52
Ya |   20.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   1.8   3.6   6.7   9.4  12.5  13.7  [B]13.8[/B]  12.0   9.6   6.8   4.4   2.5   1.4   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.71
Br |   20.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   1.8   3.6   6.6   9.5  12.5  [B]13.7  13.7[/B]  11.9   9.6   6.8   4.4   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.71
SL |   10.7 |   0.4   1.3   3.3   6.0   9.3  12.0  [B]13.7[/B]  13.6  12.3   9.9   7.2   4.8   2.9   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.92
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Ck    Cr    Un    Cg    Qu    Pr    RP    Ha    Da    Ya    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Un |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.6   0.7   1.1   1.2   8.1 |  88.1
Cg |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   1.0   1.5   1.5   9.4 |  85.4
Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0     x   0.2   3.2   7.4   8.7  14.5  14.9  35.0 |  13.8
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1     x   4.0   8.4   9.8  16.2  16.6  30.3 |  11.1
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.6     x  12.4  14.0  17.7  17.8   8.2 |   1.0
Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.8   6.4     x  13.3  12.1  12.8   3.7 |   0.3
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.8   6.2   9.8     x  11.4  11.0   2.9 |   0.2
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.4   3.7   5.9   4.8     x   4.6   0.8 |   0.0
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.6   3.7   4.6   4.6   4.8     x   0.8 |   0.0
SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.1     x |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Nov 29, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

So we have the top two teams that will fight it out, the other two teams that for the time being look pretty locked into byes, and then just a mess where pretty much everyone is a little less than a win away from their neighbors. Clarkson and Cornell are basically projected to run the table from here in, but their KRACHs are pretty high right now and that's not necessarily going to last forever (though this is circular reasoning: Eventually they'll look like they might lose a few games once they've lost a few games).

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1044.85 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Clarkson
Cornell
Colgate
Union
—————
Quinnipiac
Princeton
Harvard
RPI
—————
Brown
Dartmouth
Yale
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  669.4 |  [B]68.8[/B]  29.7   1.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.33 | 38.95
Cr |  864.0 |  30.6  [B]63.6[/B]   5.2   0.6   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.76 | 37.30
Cg |  167.0 |   0.3   3.6  [B]48.2[/B]  41.0   5.6   1.0   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.52 | 29.68
Un |  127.0 |   0.3   3.1  43.4  [B]45.1[/B]   6.6   1.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.59 | 29.35
Qu |   82.5 |   0.0   0.0   1.4   8.9  [B]49.5[/B]  23.0  10.2   4.4   1.8   0.7   0.2   0.0 |  5.57 | 22.57
Pr |   64.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.7  20.9  [B]33.9[/B]  20.8  11.4   5.9   2.9   1.2   0.1 |  6.52 | 20.31
Ha |   42.2 |     x   0.0   0.1   1.2   9.9  18.5  [B]23.3[/B]  19.1  13.1   8.7   5.2   0.8 |  7.54 | 18.03
RP |   39.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   4.3  10.7  18.5  [B]20.3[/B]  17.6  14.5  11.8   1.8 |  8.35 | 16.53
Br |   33.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.3   5.1  11.2  17.5  22.1  [B]22.6[/B]  17.8   2.2 |  9.04 | 15.13
Da |   22.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.4   4.4   9.3  14.9  19.9  21.7  [B]22.5[/B]   5.8 |  9.31 | 14.51
Ya |   23.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.1   6.2  11.7  18.3  25.5  [B]31.0[/B]   4.8 |  9.70 | 13.82
SL |   11.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.2   3.3  10.4  [B]84.4[/B] | 11.77 |  7.81

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  669.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   2.1   4.1   7.0  10.8  14.4  [B]16.7[/B]  16.3  13.1   8.6   3.8   1.3 | 38.95
Cr |  864.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   3.2   5.8   9.3  13.3  16.2  [B]17.0[/B]  14.8  10.4   5.2   1.9     x     x | 37.30
Cg |  167.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.3   4.0   6.1   8.5  10.7  12.5  [B]13.0[/B]  12.3  10.2   7.7   5.0   2.9   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 29.68
Un |  127.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.7   7.0   9.3  11.4  12.5  [B]12.7[/B]  11.3   9.4   6.7   4.4   2.4   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 29.35
Qu |   82.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.6   4.3   6.4   9.0  11.1  12.6  [B]12.7[/B]  11.9   9.7   7.3   4.7   2.8   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.57
Pr |   64.1 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.1   4.9   7.3   9.5  11.6  [B]12.5  12.5[/B]  11.1   9.1   6.5   4.3   2.4   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.31
Ha |   42.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.4   4.0   6.0   8.0  10.0  11.2  [B]11.7[/B]  11.1   9.9   7.9   5.9   4.0   2.6   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.03
RP |   39.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.1   4.8   7.0   9.0  10.9  11.8  [B]12.0[/B]  10.8   9.1   7.0   4.9   3.1   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.53
Br |   33.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.4   3.1   5.2   8.3  10.8  12.9  [B]13.3[/B]  12.7  10.6   8.2   5.5   3.5   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.13
Da |   22.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   2.9   5.0   7.2   9.6  11.3  [B]12.3[/B]  11.9  10.7   8.8   6.7   4.6   3.0   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.51
Ya |   23.6 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   1.6   3.3   6.3   9.1  12.3  13.6  [B]13.9[/B]  12.3  10.0   7.1   4.6   2.7   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.82
SL |   11.7 |   0.4   1.3   3.6   6.3   9.7  12.3  [B]13.9[/B]  13.6  12.1   9.6   6.9   4.5   2.7   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.81
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Un    Qu    Pr    Ha    RP    Br    Da    Ya    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cg |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   0.6   4.9 |  93.1
Un |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.4   0.7   0.7   5.7 |  91.9
Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.8   2.8   5.8   8.9  11.4  13.1  44.5 |  10.2
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3         5.1   9.8  14.1  16.5  19.2  22.0 |   3.0
Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.9        10.3  15.0  15.4  16.5  11.3 |   1.3
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   1.9   6.3        13.1  12.9  13.4   5.7 |   0.3
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   2.4   5.2   8.2         8.0   8.7   2.3 |   0.1
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.9   4.1   6.4   7.8         7.3   2.0 |   0.1
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.2   4.0   4.7   5.1   4.3         0.9 |   0.0
SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

StayPuftMMcu · Nov 29, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

I shouldn't have laughed at this, but in the BYE column, KRACH doesn't even give SLU a 0.0 chance. It literally just says "NO".

FlagDUDE08 · Nov 30, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

StayPuftMMcu said:
I shouldn't have laughed at this, but in the BYE column, KRACH doesn't even give SLU a 0.0 chance. It literally just says "NO".

Mathematically, they have a shot at it. Probably just didn't happen in any of the 1,000,000 simulations.

lugnut92 · Nov 30, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

FlagDUDE08 said:
Mathematically, they have a shot at it. Probably just didn't happen in any of the 1,000,000 simulations.

This is accurate.

lugnut92 · Dec 3, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

With everyone except the North Country done with the league schedule for 2017, the most action is happening at the home-road line, with positions 8 through 11 separated by just over two points. Elsewhere, Cornell is Clarkson's only real competition for the Cleary, Harvard is locked in fifth, and the Princeton-Quinnipiac travel pair is wonderfully mediocre.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1041.03 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Clarkson
Cornell
Colgate
Union
—————
Harvard
Quinnipiac
Princeton
Brown
—————
Yale
RPI
Dartmouth
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  627.7 |  [B]78.0[/B]  21.3   0.6   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.23 | 38.99
Cr |  522.7 |  21.6  [B]71.9[/B]   5.7   0.7   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.86 | 36.18
Cg |  127.8 |   0.2   4.1  [B]47.5[/B]  33.7  11.0   2.4   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  3.63 | 28.38
Un |  112.2 |   0.1   2.5  37.8  [B]39.0[/B]  16.3   3.1   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.83 | 27.58
Ha |   82.0 |   0.0   0.2   7.7  21.5  [B]44.6[/B]  15.2   6.3   2.7   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.0 |  5.07 | 23.82
Qu |   66.2 |     x   0.0   0.3   2.5  12.6  [B]31.3[/B]  22.8  14.2   8.7   5.1   2.3   0.2 |  6.92 | 19.66
Pr |   57.8 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.7   9.0  24.0  [B]25.3[/B]  17.7  11.6   7.0   3.2   0.3 |  7.28 | 19.04
Br |   43.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.5   9.5  16.3  20.8  [B]20.8[/B]  17.6  11.4   0.7 |  8.49 | 16.70
Ya |   32.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.3   4.9   9.8  16.1  21.3  [B]24.3[/B]  20.6   1.5 |  9.14 | 15.71
RP |   38.1 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.8   6.0  10.6  15.6  18.9  21.4  [B]22.5[/B]   3.0 |  9.12 | 15.56
Da |   25.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   3.5   7.4  12.3  16.6  22.0  [B]31.4[/B]   5.9 |  9.61 | 14.62
SL |   12.9 |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   2.1   8.4  [B]88.4[/B] | 11.84 |  7.76

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  627.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   4.2   7.0  10.5  13.9  [B]16.2[/B]  16.1  13.3   9.0   4.3   1.5 | 38.99
Cr |  522.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.3   4.0   6.7   9.8  12.8  14.9  [B]15.1[/B]  13.5   9.7   5.9   2.5   0.8     x     x | 36.18
Cg |  127.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.2   4.9   7.0   9.1  10.9  11.9  [B]12.1[/B]  11.0   9.3   6.9   4.7   2.8   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 28.38
Un |  112.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.6   4.3   6.6   8.8  11.2  12.3  [B]12.9[/B]  11.5   9.8   7.1   4.9   2.8   1.5   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 27.58
Ha |   82.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.5   4.0   6.2   8.3  10.6  11.8  [B]12.4[/B]  11.6  10.1   7.7   5.5   3.4   2.0   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.82
Qu |   66.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.1   2.2   4.1   6.2   9.1  11.3  [B]13.3[/B]  13.1  12.3   9.8   7.4   4.6   2.7   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.66
Pr |   57.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.2   5.5   7.9  10.8  12.4  [B]13.5[/B]  12.5  11.0   8.2   5.7   3.3   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.04
Br |   43.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.6   3.8   6.1   9.6  11.9  [B]14.1[/B]  13.6  12.6   9.7   7.1   4.3   2.5   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.70
Ya |   32.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.4   1.6   3.2   6.5   9.2  12.8  13.9  [B]14.4[/B]  12.3  10.0   6.8   4.3   2.3   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.71
RP |   38.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.3   2.5   4.6   6.8   9.6  11.4  [B]12.9[/B]  12.5  11.5   9.2   6.9   4.5   2.8   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.56
Da |   25.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.5   4.3   7.0   9.4  11.8  [B]12.7  12.7[/B]  11.2   9.3   6.9   4.7   2.8   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.62
SL |   12.9 |   0.5   1.4   3.7   6.5  10.0  12.5  [B]13.9[/B]  13.5  11.9   9.4   6.8   4.4   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.76
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Un    Ha    Qu    Pr    Br    Ya    RP    Da    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.8   1.0   1.7  10.0 |  85.6
Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.1   1.6   2.0  14.7 |  79.5
Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.9   1.3   3.9   6.0   6.4   9.4  40.7 |  29.3
Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2         4.4  11.8  16.2  15.5  18.3  14.5 |   2.8
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.2        11.8  16.5  15.9  17.6  10.7 |   1.9
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.5   5.7        12.1  12.4  11.3   3.6 |   0.4
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.0   4.0   8.1         7.3   7.3   2.0 |   0.2
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.3   3.6   7.5   8.8         8.1   2.4 |   0.2
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.2   2.6   6.3   6.1   5.5         1.1 |   0.1
SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Ralph Baer · Dec 3, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

FlagDUDE08 said:
Mathematically, they have a shot at it. Probably just didn't happen in any of the 1,000,000 simulations.

lugnut92 hit upon at least one this time.

lugnut92 · Dec 3, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Ralph Baer said:
lugnut92 hit upon at least one this time.

Yup, exactly once they ended up in third. I imagine that was the one time the simulator got them up to 27 points.

FlagDUDE08 · Dec 4, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Just out of curiosity, how long does it take to run 1,000,000 simulations? Not that we'd expect you to run 100 dodectillion simulations, mind you...

lugnut92 · Dec 4, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

FlagDUDE08 said:
Just out of curiosity, how long does it take to run 1,000,000 simulations? Not that we'd expect you to run 100 dodectillion simulations, mind you...

This one took 412.2 seconds, but we're also a little over a third of the way into the season. At its longest, it takes about ten minutes. When I tried to do an exhaustive sim of the last two weeks of the season, it took over a week.

lugnut92 · Dec 11, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Only a pair of ECAC games this week, but a bunch of other games led to a rejiggering of each team's KRACH. No one changed position, so whatever.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1040.08 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Clarkson
Cornell
Colgate
Union
—————
Harvard
Quinnipiac
Princeton
Brown
—————
Yale
RPI
Dartmouth
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  589.4 |  [B]80.9[/B]  18.7   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.19 | 39.50
Cr |  497.4 |  18.9  [B]75.9[/B]   4.7   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.87 | 36.42
Cg |  103.4 |   0.1   2.8  [B]43.4[/B]  37.3  12.3   2.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  3.73 | 27.91
Un |  101.4 |   0.1   2.5  [B]43.7[/B]  36.7  13.8   2.4   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.72 | 27.85
Ha |   68.8 |   0.0   0.1   7.4  20.5  [B]45.0[/B]  15.3   6.5   3.1   1.5   0.6   0.2   0.0 |  5.12 | 23.59
Qu |   52.3 |     x   0.0   0.2   2.0  11.2  [B]28.2[/B]  22.6  15.5  10.4   6.6   3.0   0.2 |  7.12 | 19.22
Pr |   50.4 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.9   9.9  [B]24.9[/B]  23.9  16.9  11.6   7.2   3.1   0.3 |  7.24 | 19.05
Br |   34.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.3   8.7  14.7  19.4  [B]21.2[/B]  19.7  12.9   0.8 |  8.62 | 16.46
Ya |   34.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.4   2.5   7.8  13.3  18.7  [B]21.4[/B]  20.9  14.2   0.9 |  8.71 | 16.44
RP |   34.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.4   7.3  11.9  16.0  18.6  [B]21.3[/B]  19.8   2.3 |  8.95 | 15.87
Da |   19.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.6   5.6   9.8  14.5  21.5  [B]37.9[/B]   7.5 |  9.88 | 14.05
SL |   11.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   2.0   9.0  [B]88.0[/B] | 11.84 |  7.66

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  589.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.7   5.2   8.6  12.5  15.9  [B]17.5[/B]  15.6  11.5   5.9   2.4 | 39.50
Cr |  497.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.9   3.4   5.9   9.0  12.3  14.9  [B]15.6[/B]  14.2  10.7   6.7   2.9   1.0     x     x | 36.42
Cg |  103.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.4   4.0   5.8   8.0   9.9  11.5  [B]12.0[/B]  11.8  10.2   8.2   5.8   3.8   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 27.91
Un |  101.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   3.7   5.9   8.2  10.7  12.2  [B]13.1[/B]  12.1  10.5   7.8   5.5   3.1   1.7   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 27.85
Ha |   68.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.8   4.4   6.7   8.8  11.0  12.1  [B]12.4[/B]  11.3   9.7   7.2   5.0   3.0   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.59
Qu |   52.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.5   2.8   5.1   7.4  10.4  12.1  [B]13.5[/B]  12.7  11.4   8.6   6.2   3.7   2.0   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.22
Pr |   50.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.7   3.1   5.5   7.8  10.8  12.4  [B]13.6[/B]  12.5  11.1   8.1   5.7   3.3   1.9   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.05
Br |   34.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.9   1.9   4.4   6.8  10.4  12.5  [B]14.4[/B]  13.5  12.1   9.0   6.3   3.8   2.1   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.46
Ya |   34.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.9   2.0   4.4   6.8  10.5  12.5  [B]14.4[/B]  13.5  12.0   9.0   6.3   3.7   2.1   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.44
RP |   34.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.1   2.1   3.9   6.0   8.8  10.8  [B]12.6  12.6[/B]  12.0   9.9   7.6   5.2   3.3   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.87
Da |   19.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.6   3.5   5.7   8.6  10.9  12.8  [B]12.9[/B]  12.2  10.1   7.9   5.4   3.5   2.0   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.05
SL |   11.6 |   0.6   1.5   4.0   6.7  10.3  12.6  [B]14.1[/B]  13.4  11.8   9.2   6.5   4.2   2.5   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.66
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Un    Ha    Qu    Pr    Br    Ya    RP    Da    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.7   0.7   1.1   2.3  11.1 |  83.5
Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.1   0.6   0.6   1.1   1.9  12.5 |  83.0
Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0         1.3   1.4   4.6   4.6   5.9  11.2  40.9 |  27.9
Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3         4.7  12.9  13.4  14.2  19.0  12.9 |   2.2
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   4.0        12.6  13.8  14.9  18.4  11.6 |   2.2
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   4.1   5.5        10.3  11.1  10.1   3.3 |   0.3
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   4.2   4.7  10.3         9.5   9.6   3.4 |   0.4
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   4.1   3.7   8.3   9.2         8.8   3.1 |   0.3
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.2   2.0   4.8   4.6   4.1         0.8 |   0.1
SL |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.0       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Jan 2, 2018

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Here we are on the other side of the Christmas break. No more ECAC games have been played, but pretty much everyone has played a couple games, which should make their KRACH values more accurate. I'm doing this now instead of waiting until Tuesday and Wednesday's games are played because I feel like it. So the clashes at the dividing lines are going fine, with the 3-5 and 6-10 battles both within a couple of wins.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1040.08 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Clarkson
Cornell
Colgate
Union
—————
Harvard
Princeton
Quinnipiac
Dartmouth
—————
Yale
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  608.6 |  [B]76.6[/B]  23.1   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.24 | 39.07
Cr |  594.9 |  23.3  [B]74.0[/B]   2.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.80 | 36.51
Cg |  107.8 |   0.1   1.9  [B]48.4[/B]  29.8  12.7   4.4   1.7   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  3.79 | 26.94
Un |   92.0 |   0.0   0.9  [B]34.6[/B]  34.5  19.2   6.6   2.6   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.11 | 25.85
Ha |   83.1 |   0.0   0.1  12.0  24.7  [B]33.3[/B]  15.0   7.4   3.9   2.1   1.0   0.4   0.1 |  5.08 | 23.31
Pr |   76.2 |     x   0.0   1.1   4.8  13.5  [B]24.6[/B]  20.3  14.9  10.4   6.7   3.0   0.6 |  7.01 | 19.56
Qu |   58.4 |     x   0.0   0.4   2.2   8.0  17.8  [B]19.8[/B]  17.8  14.6  11.2   6.6   1.7 |  7.73 | 18.24
Da |   50.6 |     x   0.0   0.4   1.9   5.8  12.6  16.7  [B]17.6[/B]  16.4  14.6  10.6   3.4 |  8.22 | 17.46
Ya |   50.1 |     x     x   0.2   1.1   3.9   8.9  13.8  17.8  [B]20.2[/B]  19.3  12.5   2.4 |  8.58 | 16.87
Br |   44.1 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.7   7.5  12.2  16.8  20.7  [B]22.2[/B]  14.3   2.9 |  8.82 | 16.37
RP |   33.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   2.5   5.0   8.1  12.4  19.1  [B]35.9[/B]  16.1 | 10.10 | 13.93
SL |   27.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.6   5.7  16.8  [B]72.8[/B] | 11.54 |  9.89

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  608.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   2.1   4.0   6.7  10.1  13.7  16.0  [B]16.4[/B]  13.6   9.5   4.5   1.7 | 39.07
Cr |  594.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.3   5.6   8.6  11.9  14.6  [B]15.7[/B]  14.6  11.2   7.1   3.2   1.1     x     x | 36.51
Cg |  107.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.0   5.9   7.8   9.8  11.1  [B]11.7[/B]  11.2  10.1   8.1   6.0   4.0   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.94
Un |   92.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.5   4.0   6.2   8.2  10.5  11.6  [B]12.4[/B]  11.5  10.1   7.7   5.6   3.5   2.1   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 25.85
Ha |   83.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.4   5.1   7.3   9.2  11.1  11.8  [B]11.9[/B]  10.6   8.9   6.6   4.5   2.7   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.31
Pr |   76.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.4   2.5   4.4   6.5   9.3  11.2  [B]12.9[/B]  12.6  11.9   9.4   7.3   4.6   2.8   1.4   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.56
Qu |   58.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   3.2   5.0   7.8   9.9  12.1  [B]12.7[/B]  12.6  10.8   8.8   6.1   4.0   2.2   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.24
Da |   50.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.1   5.1   7.1   9.4  10.9  [B]11.9[/B]  11.7  10.7   8.8   6.8   4.7   3.0   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.46
Ya |   50.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.6   3.7   5.8   9.0  11.2  [B]13.5[/B]  13.3  12.6  10.1   7.7   4.9   3.0   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.87
Br |   44.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.1   2.3   4.8   7.1  10.6  12.3  [B]14.0[/B]  13.0  11.6   8.8   6.2   3.8   2.2   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.37
RP |   33.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   3.9   6.0   8.9  10.9  [B]12.7[/B]  12.6  11.9   9.8   7.6   5.2   3.4   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.93
SL |   27.6 |   0.1   0.3   1.1   2.1   4.2   6.3   9.1  10.9  [B]12.4[/B]  12.2  11.5   9.5   7.5   5.2   3.4   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.89
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Un    Ha    Pr    Qu    Da    Ya    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.4   0.9   1.3   1.2   1.4   3.9  10.2 |  80.1
Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.5   1.2   1.6   2.0   2.3   6.5  15.2 |  70.1
Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0         1.5   3.0   4.6   4.9   5.9  12.7  26.9 |  36.9
Pr |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.5         6.5   9.6  11.6  12.3  17.0  15.6 |   5.9
Qu |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.5   4.5         9.2  11.8  12.9  14.0  10.5 |   2.6
Da |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.5   3.6   6.7        10.7  11.6  11.7   7.8 |   2.3
Ya |     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   4.0   6.5   7.9        10.0   9.0   5.8 |   1.3
Br |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.6   4.5   5.8   7.0   8.2         8.3   4.5 |   0.7
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.5   3.0   3.2   3.6   3.3         1.4 |   0.2
SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.4   0.3   0.4   0.3       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Jan 10, 2018

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Real ECAC games! What a concept! We still have veeeeery tight races at the breaklines, so we could be looking at a hell of a second half. Woo!

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1035.78 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Clarkson
Cornell
Colgate
Harvard
—————
Union
Quinnipiac
Yale
Princeton
—————
Dartmouth
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  693.3 |  [B]70.8[/B]  29.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.29 | 39.09
Cr |  710.2 |  29.2  [B]70.1[/B]   0.7   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.72 | 37.30
Cg |  107.1 |   0.0   0.5  [B]41.7[/B]  28.3  19.5   6.3   2.3   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.03 | 25.85
Ha |  106.4 |   0.0   0.2  28.2  [B]33.3[/B]  25.0   8.4   3.1   1.2   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.30 | 25.04
Un |   90.3 |   0.0   0.2  27.4  [B]29.7[/B]  28.1   9.3   3.4   1.3   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.37 | 24.87
Qu |   74.6 |     x   0.0   0.9   4.1  12.0  [B]29.4[/B]  21.1  14.5   9.5   5.6   2.3   0.6 |  6.93 | 19.58
Ya |   66.9 |     x   0.0   0.5   2.0   5.4  12.7  17.8  [B]19.5[/B]  18.7  14.8   6.7   1.9 |  8.06 | 17.65
Pr |   71.9 |     x     x   0.1   0.9   3.8  13.3  19.1  [B]19.7[/B]  18.4  15.2   7.1   2.4 |  8.19 | 17.42
Da |   52.9 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.0   3.5  11.2  16.2  18.4  [B]18.8[/B]  17.8   9.3   3.6 |  8.43 | 17.01
Br |   51.1 |     x     x   0.1   0.7   2.6   8.2  14.0  18.2  21.2  [B]21.6[/B]  10.2   3.1 |  8.66 | 16.56
RP |   32.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.4   3.2   6.5  13.9  [B]37.8[/B]  36.6 | 10.92 | 12.29
SL |   41.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   1.6   3.0   5.6  10.7  26.5  [B]51.6[/B] | 11.10 | 11.34

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  693.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   2.0   3.8   6.6  10.1  13.7  16.2  [B]16.5[/B]  13.6   9.5   4.5   1.8 | 39.09
Cr |  710.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.3   5.9   9.3  13.2  16.2  [B]17.0[/B]  14.7  10.5   5.1   2.0     x     x | 37.30
Cg |  107.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   4.0   6.0   8.3  10.3  12.1  [B]12.4[/B]  12.0  10.1   8.0   5.4   3.5   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 25.85
Ha |  106.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.8   3.1   5.5   7.7  10.7  12.3  [B]13.7[/B]  12.5  11.3   8.2   5.8   3.2   1.8   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.04
Un |   90.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   3.7   5.7   8.7  10.7  [B]13.0  13.0[/B]  12.6  10.2   8.0   5.1   3.2   1.6   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.87
Qu |   74.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.1   2.1   4.2   6.3   9.5  11.5  [B]13.7[/B]  13.2  12.6   9.5   7.3   4.3   2.5   1.1   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.58
Ya |   66.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.3   3.9   6.8   9.0  12.0  12.9  [B]13.5[/B]  11.7  10.0   6.9   4.7   2.6   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.65
Pr |   71.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.3   4.5   6.7  10.0  11.7  [B]13.9[/B]  13.0  12.2   9.2   6.8   3.9   2.2   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.42
Da |   52.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   2.0   3.4   5.9   8.2  10.9  12.2  [B]13.0[/B]  12.0  10.4   7.9   5.6   3.5   2.0   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.01
Br |   51.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.1   4.4   6.6  10.0  11.9  [B]13.8[/B]  13.1  12.0   9.3   6.8   4.2   2.5   1.2   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.56
RP |   32.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.7   1.6   4.6   7.3  11.7  13.6  [B]15.3[/B]  13.7  11.7   8.3   5.6   3.1   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.29
SL |   41.0 |   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.9   3.2   5.5   7.5  10.0  11.2  [B]12.2[/B]  11.5  10.5   8.4   6.4   4.4   2.8   1.6   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.34
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Ha    Un    Qu    Ya    Pr    Da    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x           x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.6   1.1   1.8   2.0   1.8   9.4  12.4 |  70.4
Ha |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.6   1.7   1.9   2.6   2.7  13.1  15.2 |  61.7
Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.6   1.8   2.1   2.8   2.9  14.4  17.5 |  57.3
Qu |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.1         8.8   9.1  10.2  12.3  19.2  17.1 |   5.0
Ya |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.2   3.8         9.1  10.3  11.6  10.7   9.5 |   2.5
Pr |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.1   3.6   9.9        11.1  11.5  10.8   8.7 |   1.0
Da |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.1   3.8   9.1   8.0        11.2   9.4   7.4 |   1.2
Br |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.1   3.6   7.8   9.1   8.5         7.4   6.3 |   0.9
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.7   1.2   0.9   0.9   1.0         0.4 |   0.0
SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.7   0.9   1.1   1.1   1.0   0.6       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Jan 14, 2018

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Sweet, sweet twelve-game weekend in early January. The best. Well, Colgate didn't do so hot, so they dropped out of bye territory, but the gap between 5th and 3rd remains under one point. Same basic deal between 7th and 9th. Like it has been all season.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1030.06 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Clarkson
Cornell
Harvard
Union
—————
Colgate
Yale
Quinnipiac
Princeton
—————
Dartmouth
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  706.0 |  [B]85.8[/B]  14.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.14 | 39.80
Cr |  548.7 |  14.2  [B]84.6[/B]   1.1   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.87 | 36.29
Ha |  110.3 |   0.0   0.3  [B]37.4[/B]  33.1  21.2   6.3   1.3   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  4.01 | 26.03
Un |   92.1 |   0.0   0.5  30.3  [B]30.5[/B]  25.9   9.1   2.6   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  4.25 | 25.45
Cg |   98.2 |   0.0   0.4  [B]28.7[/B]  27.9  27.1  10.9   3.3   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.36 | 25.07
Ya |   82.2 |     x   0.0   2.2   6.7  15.3  [B]28.2[/B]  20.0  13.7   8.9   3.9   1.1   0.1 |  6.60 | 20.48
Qu |   66.0 |     x     x   0.1   0.6   3.9  16.8  [B]23.5[/B]  21.5  17.8  10.9   4.3   0.6 |  7.83 | 18.32
Pr |   73.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.5  13.2  20.8  [B]22.6[/B]  20.5  14.1   5.3   0.8 |  8.12 | 17.68
Da |   54.0 |     x     x   0.1   0.8   3.3  11.6  18.2  [B]21.8[/B]  21.6  15.1   6.3   1.1 |  8.20 | 17.57
Br |   45.1 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   3.1   8.0  13.1  20.1  [B]32.2[/B]  19.9   2.9 |  9.39 | 15.34
RP |   34.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.2   4.7   9.4  21.2  [B]54.6[/B]   7.2 | 10.40 | 13.38
SL |   32.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.0   2.6   8.5  [B]87.3[/B] | 11.81 |  8.59

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  706.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.1   4.2   7.3  11.4  15.2  [B]17.8[/B]  16.6  13.4   7.1   3.3 | 39.80
Cr |  548.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   3.2   5.9   9.4  13.4  16.2  [B]17.3[/B]  14.5  10.5   4.7   2.1     x     x     x | 36.29
Ha |  110.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.2   2.4   4.9   7.5  11.6  13.3  [B]15.6[/B]  13.7  12.2   7.9   5.2   2.4   1.1   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.03
Un |   92.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.4   3.9   7.1   9.4  12.9  13.4  [B]14.3[/B]  11.7   9.9   6.2   4.1   1.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.45
Cg |   98.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.0   5.4   7.6  10.7  12.3  [B]13.8[/B]  12.7  11.3   8.3   5.9   3.3   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.07
Ya |   82.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   2.2   3.7   6.9   9.3  12.9  13.6  [B]14.7[/B]  12.0  10.1   6.3   4.1   1.8   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.48
Qu |   66.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   4.2   6.3  11.0  12.7  [B]16.0[/B]  14.1  13.3   8.7   6.1   2.8   1.4   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.32
Pr |   73.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.2   3.2   5.3   9.5  11.7  [B]15.6[/B]  14.6  14.5  10.0   7.4   3.6   1.9   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.68
Da |   54.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   4.1   6.3  10.0  12.1  [B]14.4[/B]  13.6  12.6   9.5   6.8   4.0   2.2   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.57
Br |   45.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   2.2   3.8   7.7  10.1  14.0  14.1  [B]14.5[/B]  11.5   9.2   5.7   3.5   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.34
RP |   34.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.5   2.9   7.8  10.4  15.5  15.2  [B]15.6[/B]  11.8   9.0   5.2   3.0   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.38
SL |   32.0 |   0.3   0.7   2.3   4.0   7.3   9.7  12.6  [B]13.2  13.2[/B]  11.4   9.3   6.5   4.4   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.59
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Ck    Cr    Ha    Un    Cg    Ya    Qu    Pr    Da    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Cr |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ha |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   0.9   0.8   2.2   5.7  18.7 |  70.9
Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.2   0.9   1.2   1.4   3.5   7.8  23.6 |  61.3
Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.2   1.4   1.9   1.7   4.3   8.3  24.7 |  57.0
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1         6.2   7.9   8.9  15.8  21.8  16.5 |   8.9
Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   3.6        11.7  10.5  17.5  16.5   5.7 |   0.7
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   3.7   8.2        13.4  15.2  14.3   4.0 |   0.3
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   3.6   9.8   8.8        14.9  13.2   4.6 |   0.9
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.8   4.6   6.7   5.8         4.6   1.2 |   0.1
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8   1.8   1.5   1.7   1.5         0.3 |   0.0
SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Jan 21, 2018

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

We have a lead change to announce! Clarkson only pulling one point at home has dropped them below Cornell for the first time in two months. Our big **** heroes in green, Dartmouth, jumped quite a few spots with their upset of Clarkson (and also beating SLU, but who doesn't beat SLU, I mean honestly). The battle for a bye has calmed, as the 4th place Dutchmen are projected to outpace Colgate by over 3 points, but the struggle for first round home ice lives on, with Quinnipiac and Princeton separated by less than a point.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1025.29 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Clarkson
Harvard
Union
—————
Colgate
Dartmouth
Yale
Quinnipiac
—————
Princeton
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  631.8 |  [B]58.3[/B]  41.1   0.6   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.42 | 37.39
Ck |  465.6 |  41.6  [B]57.1[/B]   1.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.60 | 36.33
Ha |  132.2 |   0.0   1.1  [B]47.9[/B]  34.2  12.9   3.1   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.71 | 27.61
Un |  104.2 |   0.0   0.6  38.4  [B]39.1[/B]  17.1   3.8   0.8   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  3.88 | 27.14
Cg |   93.5 |   0.0   0.1  10.7  20.0  [B]36.9[/B]  18.0   8.8   4.0   1.3   0.3   0.0     x |  5.13 | 23.97
Da |   76.8 |     x   0.0   0.9   4.3  16.9  [B]30.7[/B]  22.8  14.6   7.5   2.3   0.1   0.0 |  6.56 | 21.22
Ya |   83.4 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.8   9.9  19.6  [B]23.4[/B]  22.8  17.1   5.1   0.1   0.0 |  7.27 | 20.03
Qu |   76.2 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.9  13.6  22.8  [B]25.6[/B]  21.8  10.3   1.5   0.1 |  7.84 | 18.97
Pr |   78.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   2.1   9.9  16.5  22.6  [B]27.5[/B]  18.9   2.1   0.1 |  8.29 | 18.06
Br |   47.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.4   4.1   9.9  23.4  [B]54.4[/B]   6.4   0.2 |  9.44 | 15.48
RP |   29.9 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.4   8.3  [B]85.6[/B]   4.4 | 10.92 | 11.39
SL |   27.0 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   4.2  [B]95.2[/B] | 11.95 |  6.39

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  631.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.4   4.9   8.9  13.5  18.0  [B]18.7[/B]  17.1   9.7   5.3 | 37.39
Ck |  465.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.5   3.1   5.9   9.2  13.6  16.0  [B]17.6[/B]  14.2  11.0   4.7   2.3 | 36.33
Ha |  132.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   3.0   5.1   9.8  12.0  [B]16.8[/B]  15.0  15.4   9.6   7.1   2.8   1.4   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x | 27.61
Un |  104.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   2.2   3.7   8.2  10.4  15.5  14.6  [B]15.9[/B]  11.2   9.1   4.5   2.7   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 27.14
Cg |   93.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.4   3.1   5.0   8.4  10.6  13.8  13.7  [B]14.0[/B]  10.8   8.6   4.9   3.0   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.97
Da |   76.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.8   4.5   6.8  11.5  13.0  [B]16.1[/B]  13.9  12.8   8.3   5.7   2.7   1.3   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.22
Ya |   83.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   2.3   3.8   8.6  10.8  [B]16.1[/B]  14.9  15.8  10.9   8.5   4.2   2.3   0.7   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.03
Qu |   76.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.6   4.5   8.5  10.9  15.0  14.6  [B]15.1[/B]  10.9   8.5   4.4   2.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.97
Pr |   78.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.4   4.2   8.1  10.6  14.8  14.6  [B]15.4[/B]  11.2   8.8   4.6   2.6   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.06
Br |   47.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.1   2.2   7.0   9.5  15.7  15.4  [B]17.0[/B]  12.3   9.7   5.3   3.0   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.48
RP |   29.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   7.2   9.8  [B]19.3[/B]  17.8  18.5  12.2   8.4   4.0   1.9   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.39
SL |   27.0 |   1.6   3.2   8.0  10.8  15.0  [B]15.1[/B]  14.8  11.6   8.7   5.3   3.2   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.39
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ck    Ha    Un    Cg    Da    Ya    Qu    Pr    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ha |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.3   0.5   3.4  12.3 |  83.3
Un |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.8   4.2  16.4 |  78.2
Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.3   0.6   2.3   3.9   7.0  17.8  35.8 |  30.8
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2         3.3   7.5   9.0  18.3  29.1  17.7 |   5.2
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   2.2         9.2  13.9  20.4  19.1  10.5 |   2.1
Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.0   7.1        16.3  21.7  14.0   4.4 |   0.4
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.7   8.5  10.2        15.6  10.3   2.5 |   0.2
Br |     x     x   0.0     x   0.3   1.6   2.6   4.2   5.1         1.7   0.3 |   0.0
RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1         0.0 |    NO
SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

hockeyplayer1015 · Jan 21, 2018

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

I find it funny that the simulation finds SLU will magically receive 5 points during the remainder of the season.

ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

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Cornell Big Red

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Registered User

Banned

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Let's Go 'Tute!

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Banned

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Capt