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ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

That weekend was bad and it should feel bad. Brown is now done with their non-conference schedule and we're all just waiting on Harvard to do it's stupid thing that it hasn't won since Clinton's first month in office. Quinnipiac sits at the top, now having in all likelihood clinched a bye. Harvard and Yale will duke it out for second, but shouldn't fall out of the bye. Meanwhile, the fight for the last bye is quite contentious, as positions 4 through 7 are separated by ~1.3 points. At the same time, it looks like the four teams on the road for the first round are all but set, with only Union showing a real shot to make it up to the middle four.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^16.70 possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Harvard
  3. Yale
  4. Dartmouth
    —————
  5. RPI
  6. SLU
  7. Cornell
  8. Clarkson
    —————
  9. Union
  10. Colgate
  11. Princeton
  12. Brown
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  892.2 |  [B]99.9[/B]   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.00 | 37.65
Ha |  357.5 |   0.0  [B]49.5[/B]  38.4   7.7   2.7   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  2.69 | 29.33
Ya |  326.4 |   0.0  [B]45.3[/B]  39.4   9.6   3.4   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.0     x     x     x |  2.78 | 28.74
Da |  178.3 |     x   1.3   7.5  [B]35.2[/B]  20.9  14.8  11.1   8.7   0.6   0.0     x     x |  5.11 | 24.76
RP |  169.1 |   0.0   1.1   4.3  15.5  [B]21.0[/B]  20.4  19.3  18.1   0.2   0.0     x     x |  5.87 | 24.04
SL |  153.8 |     x   1.0   4.1  13.4  20.8  [B]23.4[/B]  21.5  15.7   0.2     x     x     x |  5.90 | 23.68
Cr |  200.6 |     x   1.1   4.1  11.9  18.1  19.8  [B]21.7[/B]  21.5   1.8   0.0     x     x |  6.12 | 23.46
Ck |  159.2 |     x   0.6   2.2   6.8  13.1  18.9  24.8  [B]32.8[/B]   0.7   0.0     x     x |  6.57 | 22.75
Un |  120.3 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.8  [B]81.4[/B]  11.7   3.2   0.3 |  9.15 | 16.35
Cg |   46.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0  10.4  [B]53.7[/B]  29.4   6.5 | 10.32 | 12.30
Pr |   38.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   4.3  23.4  [B]47.0[/B]  25.4 | 10.93 | 11.24
Br |   41.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.5  11.2  20.4  [B]67.8[/B] | 11.56 |  9.69

   |  KRACH |     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  892.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   3.1   6.4  13.3  17.6  [B]25.1[/B]  17.4  15.7 | 37.65
Ha |  357.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   2.7   4.8  10.6  12.9  [B]20.1[/B]  16.2  18.0   7.6   5.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 29.33
Ya |  326.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.2   4.1   6.7  14.4  15.6  [B]22.2[/B]  14.6  14.0   4.1   2.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 28.74
Da |  178.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   2.3   3.8   9.6  11.2  [B]18.4[/B]  15.1  17.7   9.6   8.1   2.3   1.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.76
RP |  169.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3   0.7   3.5   5.6  13.9  14.5  [B]21.5[/B]  14.8  14.3   6.0   3.9   0.8   0.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.04
SL |  153.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.4   1.0   4.7   7.1  16.5  15.9  [B]21.6[/B]  13.5  11.7   4.5   2.6   0.5   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.68
Cr |  200.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   2.9   4.6  11.3  12.4  [B]19.6[/B]  15.1  16.4   8.1   6.3   1.6   0.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.46
Ck |  159.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.4   0.9   4.3   6.8  16.1  15.7  [B]21.7[/B]  13.7  12.2   4.7   2.8   0.5   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.75
Un |  120.3 |     x     x     x     x   0.7   1.4   6.4   8.7  18.3  16.4  [B]20.5[/B]  12.0   9.7   3.5   1.9   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.35
Cg |   46.3 |     x     x     x  16.9  16.3  [B]26.4[/B]  16.7  13.7   5.8   3.1   0.8   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.30
Pr |   38.4 |     x   7.8   9.9  [B]21.3[/B]  17.7  19.2  11.2   7.7   3.1   1.5   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.24
Br |   41.9 |  11.4  12.2  [B]26.5[/B]  18.3  17.6   7.8   4.4   1.2   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.69
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ha    Ya    Da    RP    SL    Cr    Ck    Un    Cg    Pr    Br |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ha |     x           x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.4   2.1 |  95.7
Ya |     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.3   0.9   1.6   2.8 |  94.4
Da |     x   0.0     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   9.1  13.1  15.0  18.1 |  43.9
RP |     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0  17.8  20.8  20.5  19.8 |  20.9
SL |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0  16.4  20.7  22.4  21.8 |  18.4
Cr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.1  21.8  20.6  19.1  19.4 |  17.1
Ck |     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1        30.9  22.8  19.8  16.0 |   9.6
Un |     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.1   0.1   1.6   0.5         0.3   0.2   0.1 |   0.0
Cg |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0     x |    NO
Pr |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0           x |    NO
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

IsThereADog said:
Just to clarify, at this point, it is still mathematically possible that they will not finish top 4?
Click to expand...

The most likely way is if the NCAA takes away some victories for using an ineligible player or something similar. :D
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

Ralph Baer said:
The most likely way is if the NCAA takes away some victories for using an ineligible player or something similar. :D
Click to expand...


Haha.

I'm not too worried about it, but hoping to head out to Buffalo to see the boy-wonder Eichel tear apart my Wild so wondering if I can safely buy the tickets yet.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

IsThereADog said:
Just to clarify, at this point, it is still mathematically possible that they will not finish top 4?
Click to expand...

Yes. If they lose out, they can fall to fifth alone. It's possible they can end up out of the byes even if they earn another point, but it would involve tiebreakers.

EDIT: Playing with the Sioux Sports what-if machine, we can still have a seven-way tie for 2nd at 23 points. Fun!
 
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

lugnut92 said:
Yes. If they lose out, they can fall to fifth alone. It's possible they can end up out of the byes even if they earn another point, but it would involve tiebreakers.

EDIT: Playing with the Sioux Sports what-if machine, we can still have a seven-way tie for 2nd at 23 points. Fun!
Click to expand...

Thank you!
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

108 games down, 24 to go, as both remaining weekend have full 12-game slates. Quinnipiac has the bye sewn up and has all but clinched the Cleary as well. Yale and Harvard look to have definite byes as well, but both could slip as low as eighth. There appears to be a three-way dogfight for the final bye, with SLU having a major advantage over Dartmouth and RPI. Finally, it looks like the four traveling teams in the first round are set, though Union could make it out with a strong finish (and help).

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 282,429,536,481 possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Yale
  3. Harvard
  4. SLU
    —————
  5. RPI
  6. Dartmouth
  7. Clarkson
  8. Cornell
    —————
  9. Union
  10. Colgate
  11. Brown
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  701.2 |  [B]99.5[/B]   0.5   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.01 | 36.19
Ya |  344.1 |   0.5  [B]78.1[/B]  17.3   3.4   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.26 | 30.02
Ha |  279.8 |   0.0  16.1  [B]58.7[/B]  16.3   5.7   2.4   0.7   0.1     x     x     x     x |  3.22 | 28.28
SL |  179.7 |   0.0   4.8  16.5  [B]36.3[/B]  23.8  13.7   4.2   0.7     x     x     x     x |  4.40 | 26.09
RP |  169.8 |     x   0.1   2.6  11.6  26.6  [B]30.1[/B]  19.1   9.8   0.0     x     x     x |  5.81 | 24.55
Da |  167.9 |     x   0.1   3.5  [B]26.4[/B]  25.6  22.6  14.2   7.5   0.1     x     x     x |  5.40 | 24.50
Ck |  154.8 |     x   0.1   1.4   4.5  11.7  18.8  [B]37.3[/B]  26.0   0.2     x     x     x |  6.65 | 22.87
Cr |  170.6 |     x   0.0   0.1   1.5   6.2  12.2  24.2  [B]49.9[/B]   5.9     x     x     x |  7.32 | 21.94
Un |  123.5 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.3   5.9  [B]89.4[/B]   4.1   0.4   0.0 |  8.98 | 17.16
Cg |   44.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.8  [B]59.3[/B]  31.6   5.3 | 10.38 | 11.95
Br |   44.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2  24.2  27.3  [B]48.2[/B] | 11.24 | 10.35
Pr |   33.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.4  12.4  40.7  [B]46.5[/B] | 11.33 | 10.10

   |  KRACH |     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  701.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.1   2.9   9.9  14.0  [B]29.0[/B]  18.7  24.2 | 36.19
Ya |  344.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.4   1.0   6.2   8.7  23.2  17.5  [B]27.0[/B]   8.5   7.6     x     x     x     x     x | 30.02
Ha |  279.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.4   1.0   5.4   7.4  19.7  16.4  [B]26.9[/B]  10.9  11.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 28.28
SL |  179.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.1   3.5  15.4  13.8  [B]27.1[/B]  14.3  16.6   4.2   3.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.09
RP |  169.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.8   1.7   9.2  11.4  [B]28.1[/B]  17.2  22.7   5.4   3.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.55
Da |  167.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.5   2.5  11.4  11.6  [B]25.2[/B]  15.4  20.7   6.3   5.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.50
Ck |  154.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.9   4.2  17.7  14.8  [B]27.2[/B]  13.3  14.3   3.4   2.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.87
Cr |  170.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.6   4.5  16.6  13.8  [B]25.5[/B]  13.4  15.5   4.0   3.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.94
Un |  123.5 |     x     x     x     x     x   1.6   2.8  13.2  13.7  [B]29.8[/B]  15.6  17.7   3.7   2.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.16
Cg |   44.4 |     x     x  22.3  17.5  [B]28.4[/B]  14.3  11.6   3.6   1.8   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.95
Br |   44.0 |  14.3  13.1  [B]31.5[/B]  17.2  15.9   5.0   2.5   0.4   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.35
Pr |   33.7 |  18.9  15.8  [B]30.1[/B]  15.6  13.2   4.1   1.9   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.10

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ya    Ha    SL    RP    Da    Ck    Cr    Un    Cg    Br    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ya |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.2 |  99.3
Ha |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x   0.2   1.3   3.7   3.8 |  91.1
SL |     x     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.8   8.8  16.2  16.4 |  57.7
RP |     x     x     x     x           x   0.0     x  10.0  23.4  23.9  28.2 |  14.4
Da |     x     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   7.7  18.4  21.5  22.2 |  30.0
Ck |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.2  25.8  28.4  21.3  18.1 |   6.0
Cr |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1        49.3  19.4  12.9  11.0 |   1.6
Un |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   5.6         0.1   0.1   0.0 |    NO
Cg |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x |    NO
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |    NO
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

The only bottom-four team that can possible get a first round home game is Union. Colgate cannot win a 2 or 3 way tiebreak involving Cornell (Union being the third, naturally).
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

FlagDUDE08 said:
The only bottom-four team that can possible get a first round home game is Union. Colgate cannot win a 2 or 3 way tiebreak involving Cornell (Union being the third, naturally).
Click to expand...

That's what I said, isn't it?
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

Mid-weekend update. SLU and Dartmouth (and to a lesser extent RPI) continue to fight for the final bye, but the rest is pretty much laid out. Union could still jump into a home-ice spot, but a loss to Quinnipiac would kill that dream.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 387,420,489 possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Yale
  3. Harvard
  4. SLU
    —————
  5. Dartmouth
  6. RPI
  7. Cornell
  8. Clarkson
    —————
  9. Union
  10. Brown
  11. Colgate
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  747.6 |  [B]99.9[/B]   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.00 | 36.65
Ya |  376.6 |   0.1  [B]94.6[/B]   5.1   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.05 | 30.85
Ha |  280.8 |     x   5.1  [B]75.7[/B]  14.5   3.5   1.1   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x |  3.20 | 28.13
SL |  174.5 |     x   0.1  13.6  29.4  [B]33.6[/B]  19.4   3.5   0.5     x     x     x     x |  4.71 | 25.25
Da |  180.1 |     x   0.0   4.7  [B]46.3[/B]  24.5  17.2   5.2   2.0     x     x     x     x |  4.78 | 25.13
RP |  168.9 |     x     x   0.9   7.5  26.1  [B]38.5[/B]  19.9   7.1   0.0     x     x     x |  5.90 | 24.07
Cr |  178.3 |     x     x   0.0   1.6   9.3  15.8  [B]36.7[/B]  30.4   6.2     x     x     x |  7.04 | 22.16
Ck |  137.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.6   2.9   8.0  32.8  [B]54.2[/B]   1.5     x     x     x |  7.41 | 21.19
Un |  129.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   1.9   5.8  [B]91.4[/B]   0.8   0.0     x |  8.91 | 17.69
Br |   52.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3  [B]63.2[/B]  18.3  18.2 | 10.54 | 12.00
Cg |   43.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.6  29.6  [B]62.7[/B]   7.2 | 10.76 | 11.43
Pr |   32.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.4  19.0  [B]74.6[/B] | 11.68 |  9.47

   |  KRACH |     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  747.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.8   5.5   9.7  29.5  20.0  [B]34.3[/B] | 36.65
Ya |  376.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.9   2.5  15.2  15.5  [B]38.8[/B]  12.4  14.7     x     x     x     x     x | 30.85
Ha |  280.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.1   2.2  12.4  12.8  [B]32.8[/B]  15.3  23.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 28.13
SL |  174.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   4.7   5.8  25.3  15.9  [B]30.2[/B]   8.6   9.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.25
Da |  180.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.9   6.8  25.3  15.4  [B]27.9[/B]   8.3   9.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.13
RP |  168.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.1   2.2  12.4  13.5  [B]35.0[/B]  14.8  21.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.07
Cr |  178.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.7   6.6  25.0  15.3  [B]28.3[/B]   8.5   9.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.16
Ck |  137.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  18.0  13.0  [B]32.4[/B]  14.0  16.7   3.5   2.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.19
Un |  129.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.0   8.6  [B]33.8[/B]  16.9  24.7   4.9   3.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.69
Br |   52.8 |     x     x  17.6  13.7  [B]38.8[/B]  14.7  12.7   2.0   0.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.00
Cg |   43.6 |     x     x  [B]33.4[/B]  19.5  28.8   9.9   6.9   1.1   0.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.43
Pr |   32.1 |  31.2  18.8  [B]31.3[/B]  10.6   6.7   1.0   0.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.47

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ya    Ha    SL    Da    RP    Cr    Ck    Un    Br    Cg    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ya |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ha |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   1.1   0.7   2.9 |  95.3
SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.5  11.9  17.0  27.6 |  43.1
Da |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.1  11.0  14.4  21.6 |  51.0
RP |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   7.2  22.9  31.7  29.8 |   8.4
Cr |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.5  30.0  28.8  20.6  12.3 |   1.6
Ck |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   1.4     x  52.5  22.9  15.3   5.8 |   0.6
Un |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   4.8   1.0     x   1.4   0.4   0.2 |    NO
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |    NO
Cg |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |    NO
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

One week left! Note that what you see below is no longer a Monte Carlo simulation, but an exhaustive trip through all 531,441 ways the final twelve games of the ECAC season could play out. There is still some fun to see at the borderlines, as SLU, RPI, and Dartmouth will take their fight for the final bye to the end. Union still has a shot to overtake Clarkson and earn home-ice advantage in the first round, but pretty much everything else is just seeding.

Simulated Final Standings (EXAUSTIVE SEARCH of 531,441 possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Yale
  3. Harvard
  4. SLU
    —————
  5. RPI
  6. Dartmouth
  7. Cornell
  8. Clarkson
    —————
  9. Union
  10. Brown
  11. Colgate
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  699.2 |  [B]98.4[/B]   1.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.02 | 35.97
Ya |  404.8 |   1.6  [B]97.3[/B]   1.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.00 | 31.51
Ha |  291.2 |     x   1.1  [B]92.1[/B]   5.4   1.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.07 | 28.55
SL |  166.9 |     x     x   5.9  [B]40.2[/B]  21.1  25.5   7.0   0.3     x     x     x     x |  4.88 | 24.77
RP |  173.3 |     x     x   0.9  18.4  [B]33.5[/B]  23.2  22.0   2.0     x     x     x     x |  5.53 | 24.46
Da |  166.4 |     x     x     x  [B]32.2[/B]  22.3  29.8  12.6   3.1     x     x     x     x |  5.32 | 24.09
Cr |  195.9 |     x     x     x   3.7  21.4  17.2  [B]45.6[/B]  12.1     x     x     x     x |  6.41 | 23.21
Ck |  134.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.4   4.2  12.9  [B]75.9[/B]   6.6     x     x     x |  7.84 | 20.59
Un |  136.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.6  [B]93.4[/B]     x     x     x |  8.93 | 18.29
Br |   56.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  [B]84.4[/B]  13.1   2.5 | 10.18 | 12.51
Cg |   43.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  12.9  [B]83.6[/B]   3.5 | 10.91 | 11.04
Pr |   31.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.7   3.3  [B]94.0[/B] | 11.91 |  9.02

   |  KRACH |     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  699.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.0   5.1  30.8  18.2  [B]43.9[/B] | 35.97
Ya |  404.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.4   8.2  [B]47.8[/B]  15.1  25.5     x     x     x     x | 31.51
Ha |  291.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.6   7.9  [B]35.5[/B]  15.4  32.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 28.55
SL |  166.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  23.8  13.2  [B]39.3[/B]  10.1  13.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.77
RP |  173.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.0   8.5  [B]40.6[/B]  14.8  28.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.46
Da |  166.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  16.7  11.0  [B]39.3[/B]  12.3  20.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.09
Cr |  195.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  14.4  10.2  [B]38.9[/B]  13.0  23.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.21
Ck |  134.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  28.4  14.4  [B]37.8[/B]   8.9  10.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.59
Un |  136.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  10.7   9.7  [B]42.7[/B]  13.6  23.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.29
Br |   56.0 |     x     x     x  24.9  15.0  [B]48.2[/B]   8.3   3.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.51
Cg |   43.7 |     x     x  [B]45.3[/B]  18.1  27.7   5.2   3.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.04
Pr |   31.4 |  [B]44.5[/B]  18.3  30.3   5.0   1.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.02

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ya    Ha    SL    RP    Da    Cr    Ck    Un    Br    Cg    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ya |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ha |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.3 |  98.6
SL |     x     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.3   9.9  22.8  20.9 |  46.1
RP |     x     x     x     x           x     x     x   2.0  21.2  24.9  32.6 |  19.3
Da |     x     x     x     x     x           x     x   3.1  15.1  27.3  22.3 |  32.2
Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x           x  12.1  42.4  19.8  22.0 |   3.7
Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x        75.9  11.4   5.2   0.9 |    NO
Un |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.6           x     x     x |    NO
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x |    NO
Cg |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |    NO
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

At least 24 points are needed for the bye, because SLU and Dartmouth play each other, and one will get to at least 24. Since lugnut already did the points breakdown, here's the other important stuff:

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BRN: @QU, @PU
CCT: HVD, DC
COL: RPI, UC
COR: UC, RPI
DC: @SLU, @CCT
HVD: @CCT, @SLU
PU: YAL, BRN
QU: BRN, YAL
RPI: @COL, @COR
SLU: DC, HVD
UC: @COR, @COL
YAL: @PU, @QU

Tie-breaks (SWEEP, 3pts, 2PTS with game to play, 1pts with game to play):
Code: 
BRN:           col,                                     uc,        
CCT:                          HVD,           rpi,                  
COL:                                PU,      rpi,       UC,        
COR: brn,      COL,                 PU,                 uc,        
 DC: BRN, CCT, COL,                 PU,      RPI, SLU,             
HVD: BRN,      COL, cor,  DC,       PU,           SLU,  uc,        
 PU: BRN,                                                   YAL 
 QU: BRN, cct, COL, cor,  DC, HVD,  PU,      rpi,       uc, YAL 
RPI: brn,      col, COR,      hvd,  pu,                 UC,        
SLU: brn,      COL,                 PU,  qu,            uc,        
 UC:                cor,  DC,       pu,                            
YAL: BRN, cct, COL, cor,  DC, hvd,                SLU,
Tiebreak Procedure:
Head-2-Head, Number of Wins, Record v Top4, Record v Top8
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

lugnut92 said:
One week left! Note that what you see below is no longer a Monte Carlo simulation, but an exhaustive trip through all 531,441 ways the final twelve games of the ECAC season could play out. There is still some fun to see at the borderlines, as SLU, RPI, and Dartmouth will take their fight for the final bye to the end. Union still has a shot to overtake Clarkson and earn home-ice advantage in the first round, but pretty much everything else is just seeding.

Simulated Final Standings (EXAUSTIVE SEARCH of 531,441 possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Yale
  3. Harvard
  4. SLU
    —————
  5. RPI
  6. Dartmouth
  7. Cornell
  8. Clarkson
    —————
  9. Union
  10. Brown
  11. Colgate
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  699.2 |  [B]98.4[/B]   1.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.02 | 35.97
Ya |  404.8 |   1.6  [B]97.3[/B]   1.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.00 | 31.51
Ha |  291.2 |     x   1.1  [B]92.1[/B]   5.4   1.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.07 | 28.55
SL |  166.9 |     x     x   5.9  [B]40.2[/B]  21.1  25.5   7.0   0.3     x     x     x     x |  4.88 | 24.77
RP |  173.3 |     x     x   0.9  18.4  [B]33.5[/B]  23.2  22.0   2.0     x     x     x     x |  5.53 | 24.46
Da |  166.4 |     x     x     x  [B]32.2[/B]  22.3  29.8  12.6   3.1     x     x     x     x |  5.32 | 24.09
Cr |  195.9 |     x     x     x   3.7  21.4  17.2  [B]45.6[/B]  12.1     x     x     x     x |  6.41 | 23.21
Ck |  134.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.4   4.2  12.9  [B]75.9[/B]   6.6     x     x     x |  7.84 | 20.59
Un |  136.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.6  [B]93.4[/B]     x     x     x |  8.93 | 18.29
Br |   56.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  [B]84.4[/B]  13.1   2.5 | 10.18 | 12.51
Cg |   43.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  12.9  [B]83.6[/B]   3.5 | 10.91 | 11.04
Pr |   31.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.7   3.3  [B]94.0[/B] | 11.91 |  9.02

   |  KRACH |     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  699.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.0   5.1  30.8  18.2  [B]43.9[/B] | 35.97
Ya |  404.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.4   8.2  [B]47.8[/B]  15.1  25.5     x     x     x     x | 31.51
Ha |  291.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.6   7.9  [B]35.5[/B]  15.4  32.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 28.55
SL |  166.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  23.8  13.2  [B]39.3[/B]  10.1  13.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.77
RP |  173.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.0   8.5  [B]40.6[/B]  14.8  28.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.46
Da |  166.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  16.7  11.0  [B]39.3[/B]  12.3  20.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.09
Cr |  195.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  14.4  10.2  [B]38.9[/B]  13.0  23.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.21
Ck |  134.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  28.4  14.4  [B]37.8[/B]   8.9  10.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.59
Un |  136.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  10.7   9.7  [B]42.7[/B]  13.6  23.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.29
Br |   56.0 |     x     x     x  24.9  15.0  [B]48.2[/B]   8.3   3.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.51
Cg |   43.7 |     x     x  [B]45.3[/B]  18.1  27.7   5.2   3.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.04
Pr |   31.4 |  [B]44.5[/B]  18.3  30.3   5.0   1.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.02

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ya    Ha    SL    RP    Da    Cr    Ck    Un    Br    Cg    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ya |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ha |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.3 |  98.6
SL |     x     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.3   9.9  22.8  20.9 |  46.1
RP |     x     x     x     x           x     x     x   2.0  21.2  24.9  32.6 |  19.3
Da |     x     x     x     x     x           x     x   3.1  15.1  27.3  22.3 |  32.2
Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x           x  12.1  42.4  19.8  22.0 |   3.7
Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x        75.9  11.4   5.2   0.9 |    NO
Un |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.6           x     x     x |    NO
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x |    NO
Cg |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |    NO
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
Click to expand...

I did attempt a Monte Carlo and my numbers agree fairly well with yours. I think the main source of variance between the two is due to the assumption of the frequency of ties. I used 18.3% (22/120) because that is this year's empirical data to date, but I do offer that is probably historically high. That said, I show a slightly greater chance of attaining a first round bye, 22.5% to your 19.3%. And my output reveals that should we win both games this weekend we have approximately a 64% chance of getting the bye. A win and a tie, 25 points, get us the bye only 19% of the time. A 1-1 split gives us no chance at a bye, but that is easily determined by inspection as either Dartmouth or St. Lawrence, who play each other, have to finish with at least 24 points (as Flaggy has pointed out) and we would lose all tie-breakers for that fourth spot. On the other end of the spectrum you show a 2.0% chance of finishing 8th whereas I get 1.1%.
 
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

DeepRed72 said:
I did attempt a Monte Carlo and my numbers agree fairly well with yours. I think the main source of variance between the two is due to the assumption of the frequency of ties. I used 18.3% (22/120) because that is this year's empirical data to date, but I do offer that is probably historically high. That said, I show a slightly greater chance of attaining a first round bye, 22.5% to your 19.3%. And my output reveals that should we win both games this weekend we have approximately a 64% chance of getting the bye. A win and a tie, 25 points, get us the bye only 19% of the time. A 1-1 split gives us no chance at a bye, but that is easily determined by inspection as either Dartmouth or St. Lawrence, who play each other, have to finish with at least 24 points (as Flaggy has pointed out) and we would lose all tie-breakers for that fourth spot. On the other end of the spectrum you show a 2.0% chance of finishing 8th whereas I get 1.1%.
Click to expand...

I use 13.45% for ties because that's the average rate over the last few seasons. I actually did a normal Monte Carlo sim too, and failed to see Yale overtake Quinnipiac even once (in 1.5 million sims) despite the exhaustive search showing it as ~1.6% to occur. There's obviously something a bit off in the sim because the odds of that happening with a true RNG are inconceivably low (like, winning every powerball drawing for the next 12.5 years low).
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

lugnut92 said:
I use 13.45% for ties because that's the average rate over the last few seasons. I actually did a normal Monte Carlo sim too, and failed to see Yale overtake Quinnipiac even once (in 1.5 million sims) despite the exhaustive search showing it as ~1.6% to occur. There's obviously something a bit off in the sim because the odds of that happening with a true RNG are inconceivably low (like, winning every powerball drawing for the next 12.5 years low).
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It has seemed that there is something wrong with your algorithm since the first year which you posted results. 1,500,000 simulations should get something with a probability of 1.6% about 24,000 times (not being concerned about whether a lot or almost no ties are necessary for Yale to be #1) -- but you know that.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

Ralph Baer said:
It has seemed that there is something wrong with your algorithm since the first year which you posted results. 1,500,000 simulations should get something with a probability of 1.6% about 24,000 times (not being concerned about whether a lot or almost no ties are necessary for Yale to be #1) -- but you know that.
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Yeah. It worked as intended when I manually put in the necessary results (Yale over Quinnipiac, Yale over Princeton, Brown over Quinnipiac) and in the exhaustive search, so it's not a tiebreaking thing. I have no idea why it didn't happen when games were played by RNG.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

lugnut92 said:
I use 13.45% for ties because that's the average rate over the last few seasons. I actually did a normal Monte Carlo sim too, and failed to see Yale overtake Quinnipiac even once (in 1.5 million sims) despite the exhaustive search showing it as ~1.6% to occur. There's obviously something a bit off in the sim because the odds of that happening with a true RNG are inconceivably low (like, winning every powerball drawing for the next 12.5 years low).
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I am no mathematician (though I was darn good at math back in the day), but I am puzzled as to why you feel Yale overtaking Q requires what amounts to a miracle !!!
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

yaledoc said:
I am no mathematician (though I was darn good at math back in the day), but I am puzzled as to why you feel Yale overtaking Q requires what amounts to a miracle !!!
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I don't! You misunderstood me. I was saying that assuming that Yale takes #1 1.6% of the time, for them to come up empty in 1.5 million simulations is effectively impossible (approximately 1 in 10^10500). There was a problem in my code.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

lugnut92 said:
Found it.

"wins[op] + 1" is not the same as "wins[op] += 1"
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For those who still think that Fortran is the ultimate in programming languages, although I did eventually switch to Matlab, could you explain what those two statements signify?
 
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