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ECAC Projected Standings 2013-2014

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2013-2014

The long ECAC break is over, and we have new expected standings and simulations!

Standings
1. Union (33)
2. Quinnipiac (32)
3. Clarkson (27)
4. Cornell (27)
-----
5. Colgate (27)
6. Yale (25)
7. Brown (20)
8. St. Lawrence (19)
-----
9. RPI (18)
10. Harvard (16)
11. Princeton (10)
12. Dartmouth (9)

There looks to be a dogfight in store for 3rd through 5th, as 3 teams are separated by less than a point!

Code: 
1,000,000 simulations (of 67,585,198,634,817,523,235,520,443,624,317,923 possibilities)

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  258.1 |  [B]54.2[/B]  27.6  10.7   4.7   2.0   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.75 | 32.45
Qu |  325.5 |  34.0  [B]43.4[/B]  14.4   5.5   2.0   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.00 | 31.73
Ck |  133.5 |   5.7  11.0  [B]22.5[/B]  22.1  18.6  13.1   4.8   1.6   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.07 | 27.06
Cg |  148.0 |   2.8   7.3  19.9  [B]22.5[/B]  21.4  16.3   6.5   2.4   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  4.45 | 26.36
Cr |  178.6 |   2.0   6.5  19.8  [B]23.7[/B]  22.2  16.0   6.5   2.3   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  4.49 | 26.33
Ya |  148.8 |   1.3   3.8  10.9  16.3  20.8  [B]23.1[/B]  13.4   6.6   2.7   0.9   0.1   0.0 |  5.30 | 24.73
Br |   99.9 |   0.0   0.2   1.0   2.7   6.1  12.9  [B]25.5[/B]  24.2  16.7   9.0   1.4   0.2 |  7.53 | 20.24
SL |   97.6 |   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.5   4.0   9.7  22.4  [B]26.4[/B]  20.5  11.9   2.5   0.5 |  7.90 | 19.44
RP |   76.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.4   6.1  15.1  22.9  [B]27.8[/B]  21.0   3.3   0.4 |  8.43 | 18.28
Ha |   71.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   5.3  12.7  26.1  [B]39.3[/B]  11.3   3.1 |  9.41 | 16.04
Pr |   27.0 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.4   9.8  [B]49.7[/B]  37.3 | 11.21 | 11.09
Da |   30.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.8   7.6  31.7  [B]58.4[/B] | 11.46 | 10.24

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely rank.
0.0 means the team did place in that position, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the team never finished in that position.

I think it's also time to start sharing playoff predictions!
Code: 
Playoffs
   |    RP    Un    Br    Ya    Ck    SL    Cg    Cr    Ha    Da    Pr    Qu |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RP |         0.0   9.1   1.1   0.2  11.6   0.3   0.3  12.8   4.8   6.2   0.0 |   1.0
Un |   0.1         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.4   1.1   0.0 |  97.2
Br |  15.5   0.0         0.7   0.1   9.7   0.2   0.2  20.2  10.2  12.0   0.0 |   3.9
Ya |   5.8   0.0   2.3         0.0   3.6   0.1   0.1  10.8  20.5  20.7   0.0 |  32.3
Ck |   1.8   0.0   0.9   0.1         1.5   0.0   0.0   4.6  15.3  14.0   0.0 |  61.3
SL |  16.6   0.0   8.0   0.9   0.1         0.2   0.2  19.6   7.9   9.2   0.0 |   2.1
Cg |   2.9   0.0   1.2   0.1   0.0   1.8         0.0   5.6  18.2  16.7   0.0 |  52.5
Cr |   2.9   0.0   1.2   0.1   0.0   1.7   0.0         5.7  18.6  16.8   0.0 |  52.0
Ha |   6.7   0.0   4.3   0.7   0.1   5.0   0.2   0.2         1.2   1.6   0.0 |   0.1
Da |   0.1   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.1         0.0   0.0 |   0.0
Pr |   0.2   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0         0.0 |   0.0
Qu |   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.3   1.1       |  97.3

Hosts are listed top to bottom, visitors are across the top (e.g., RPI has a 9.1% chance of hosting Brown in the first round).
 
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2013-2014

Projected Standings
1. Union (34)
2. Quinnipiac (32)
3. Clarkson (30)
4. Colgate (28)
-----
5. Cornell (27)
6. Yale (25)
7. Brown (20)
8. RPI (18)
-----
9. St. Lawrence (17)
10. Harvard (14)
11. Princeton (10)
12. Dartmouth (10)

Monte Carlo:
Code: 
1,000,000 simulations (of 10,301,051,460,877,537,453,973,547,267,843 possibilities)

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  288.5 |  [B]56.0[/B]  24.0  11.9   5.3   2.1   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.76 | 32.95
Qu |  277.2 |  21.9  [B]37.5[/B]  23.6  11.3   4.4   1.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.43 | 31.25
Ck |  161.8 |  16.2  22.3  [B]27.4[/B]  19.9  10.3   3.3   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  2.98 | 29.91
Cg |  150.8 |   4.3  10.2  20.2  [B]26.6[/B]  22.4  12.9   2.8   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  4.05 | 27.68
Cr |  172.3 |   1.1   4.3  11.8  23.1  [B]31.5[/B]  20.8   5.8   1.3   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.73 | 26.28
Ya |  141.8 |   0.4   1.6   4.7  11.7  21.8  [B]36.0[/B]  16.8   5.4   1.3   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  5.65 | 24.34
Br |  100.6 |   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.6   5.4  16.5  [B]39.9[/B]  23.3   9.6   2.8   0.5   0.1 |  7.19 | 20.48
RP |   75.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.8   6.5  20.9  [B]31.0[/B]  25.3  11.1   2.5   0.4 |  8.15 | 18.27
SL |   79.7 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.9  10.9  28.3  [B]33.4[/B]  16.9   6.3   2.0 |  8.78 | 16.87
Ha |   59.8 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.9   8.1  21.4  [B]40.2[/B]  19.8   8.4 |  9.92 | 14.13
Pr |   26.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   5.2  15.7  [B]40.4[/B]  37.4 | 11.07 | 11.18
Da |   31.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8   3.7  13.1  30.6  [B]51.7[/B] | 11.28 | 10.65

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely rank.
0.0 means the team did place in that position, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the team never finished in that position.

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    RP    Un    Br    Ya    Ck    SL    Cg    Cr    Ha    Da    Pr    Qu |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RP |         0.0   4.9   0.5   0.0  22.4   0.0   0.1  16.7   6.9   8.8   0.0 |   0.5
Un |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.3   1.1   0.0 |  97.2
Br |  10.7   0.0         0.2   0.0  18.2   0.0   0.0  25.5  14.1  16.4   0.0 |   2.0
Ya |   3.8   0.0   0.7         0.0   8.2   0.0   0.0  17.0  24.7  25.6   0.0 |  18.4
Ck |   0.1   0.0   0.1   0.0         0.6   0.0   0.0   1.8   6.4   5.1   0.0 |  85.8
SL |  17.3   0.0   4.5   0.4   0.0         0.0   0.1  12.3   3.4   3.5   0.0 |   0.1
Cg |   0.9   0.0   0.2   0.0   0.0   1.8         0.0   5.7  15.9  14.1   0.0 |  61.3
Cr |   1.7   0.0   0.4   0.0   0.0   3.3   0.0         9.5  23.4  21.2   0.0 |  40.3
Ha |   4.1   0.0   1.8   0.3   0.0   3.1   0.0   0.0         0.4   0.6   0.0 |   0.0
Da |   0.3   0.0   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.2         0.0   0.0 |   0.0
Pr |   0.4   0.0   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.4   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.0         0.0 |   0.0
Qu |   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.7   2.6   2.3       |  94.3

Hosts are listed top to bottom, visitors are across the top
(e.g., RPI has a 4.9% chance of hosting Brown in the first round).
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2013-2014

Projected Standings
1. Union (34)
2. Quinnipiac (32)
3. Colgate (30)
4. Cornell (27)
-----
5. Clarkson (27)
6. Yale (24)
7. Brown (21)
8. RPI (20)
-----
9. St. Lawrence (16)
10. Harvard (14)
11. Princeton (11)
12. Dartmouth (9)

Cornell and Clarkson are separated by a tenth of a point, so that one should be fun. They split the season series, but Cornell will currently win the tiebreaker by virtue of ECAC wins. In other news, these projections exactly mirror the current standings, except the ties are broken.

Monte Carlo:
Code: 
1,000,000 simulations (of 1,570,042,899,082,081,611,640,534,563 possibilities)

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  258.5 | [B] 59.9[/B]  22.8  10.8   4.3   1.7   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.67 | 33.18
Qu |  275.8 |  22.8  [B]40.5[/B]  21.0   9.9   4.6   1.1   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.36 | 31.40
Cg |  169.5 |  12.7  22.6  [B]33.4[/B]  18.3   9.4   3.1   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  3.01 | 29.82
Ck |  132.5 |   2.9   7.3  15.2  [B]30.6[/B]  29.1  11.1   3.1   0.6   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.25 | 27.16
Cr |  183.5 |   1.5   6.0  16.4  27.2  [B]31.0[/B]  13.3   3.9   0.7   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.40 | 27.11
Ya |  130.6 |   0.2   0.8   2.7   7.1  15.9  [B]40.2[/B]  22.6   9.1   1.3   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  6.03 | 23.59
Br |  101.3 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.1   4.0  16.5  [B]37.2[/B]  31.4   7.8   1.4   0.2   0.0 |  7.23 | 20.65
RP |   94.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.5   4.3  13.4  26.8  [B]34.4[/B]  15.3   3.6   0.3   0.0 |  7.49 | 20.08
SL |   73.8 |     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   4.8  18.2  [B]46.6[/B]  20.3   7.5   1.9 |  9.11 | 16.11
Ha |   57.8 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   4.4  20.2  [B]45.1[/B]  21.0   8.4 | 10.06 | 13.71
Pr |   26.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   6.7  19.1  [B]44.0[/B]  29.3 | 10.94 | 11.33
Da |   29.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.1  10.4  26.9  [B]60.4[/B] | 11.45 |  9.87

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely rank.
0.0 means the team did place in that position, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the team never finished in that position.

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    RP    Un    Br    Ya    Ck    SL    Cg    Cr    Ha    Da    Pr    Qu |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RP |         0.0   2.7   0.3   0.0  29.0   0.0   0.0  22.2   9.9  14.8   0.0 |   1.8
Un |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.2   0.7   0.0 |  97.8
Br |   4.2   0.0         0.3   0.0  26.4   0.0   0.0  28.6  11.6  18.1   0.0 |   1.3
Ya |   1.3   0.0   0.8         0.0  13.1   0.0   0.0  22.0  23.2  27.4   0.0 |  10.8
Ck |   0.1   0.0   0.1   0.0         2.5   0.0   0.0   6.4  20.9  13.9   0.0 |  56.0
SL |  11.1   0.0   4.1   0.5   0.0         0.0   0.0   5.5   0.9   1.6   0.0 |   0.0
Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6         0.0   1.6   6.5   4.2   0.0 |  87.0
Cr |   0.2   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   2.9   0.0         7.3  22.6  15.9   0.0 |  51.1
Ha |   2.0   0.0   1.3   0.3   0.0   1.3   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.3   0.0 |   0.0
Da |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0 |   0.0
Pr |   0.3   0.0   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0         0.0 |   0.0
Qu |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.7   3.0   1.9       |  94.2

Hosts are listed top to bottom, visitors are across the top
(e.g., RPI has a 29.0% chance of hosting SLU in the first round).
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2013-2014

Almost a full slate of games this weekend!

Projected Standings
1. Union (32)
2. Quinnipiac (32)
3. Cornell (30)
4. Clarkson (28)
-----
5. Colgate (27)
6. Yale (24)
7. Brown (22)
8. RPI (20)
-----
9. St. Lawrence (17)
10. Harvard (14)
11. Dartmouth (10)
12. Princeton (8)

Union's loss to SLU has tightened up the race for the Cleary, and the battle for the last bye is still fairly tight. Should be a fun February!

Monte Carlo:
Code: 
1,000,000 simulations (of 8,862,938,119,652,501,095,929 possibilities)

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  238.1 |  [B]49.6[/B]  28.7  12.2   5.6   2.7   1.0   0.2   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.87 | 31.93
Qu |  288.7 |  36.1  [B]36.2[/B]  15.1   7.9   3.6   1.0   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.10 | 31.63
Cr |  233.7 |   8.8  19.5  [B]35.7[/B]  21.2  11.8   2.6   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.17 | 29.33
Ck |  141.4 |   3.3   8.7  18.5  [B]29.2[/B]  28.1  10.2   1.9   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.09 | 27.46
Cg |  140.1 |   2.0   6.1  15.8  27.0  [B]28.8[/B]  16.4   3.4   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.40 | 26.89
Ya |  142.1 |   0.1   0.7   2.3   7.6  18.7  [B]40.5[/B]  21.7   7.3   0.9   0.1   0.0     x |  5.95 | 24.08
Br |  113.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8   3.6  17.6  [B]43.8[/B]  27.1   6.1   0.8   0.0   0.0 |  7.14 | 21.43
RP |   98.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.7  10.3  24.4  [B]41.1[/B]  16.8   3.8   0.1   0.0 |  7.68 | 19.98
SL |   81.3 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.5  18.9  [B]54.2[/B]  19.5   2.7   0.6 |  8.99 | 16.97
Ha |   64.4 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   4.8  19.8  [B]59.0[/B]  13.8   1.8 |  9.86 | 14.48
Da |   32.8 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.6  13.5  [B]52.8[/B]  32.1 | 11.15 | 10.60
Pr |   22.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   3.3  30.6  [B]65.5[/B] | 11.61 |  9.22


[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely rank.
0.0 means the team did place in that position, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the team never finished in that position.

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    RP    Un    Br    Ya    Ck    SL    Cg    Cr    Ha    Da    Pr    Qu |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RP |         0.0   1.8   0.2   0.0  36.0   0.0   0.0  24.1  10.5   5.9   0.0 |   0.8
Un |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.4   2.1   0.0 |  96.1
Br |   4.2   0.0         0.2   0.0  26.4   0.0   0.0  35.0  17.0   9.3   0.0 |   0.9
Ya |   1.1   0.0   0.4         0.0  10.4   0.0   0.0  20.4  30.8  25.1   0.0 |  10.7
Ck |   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.0   0.0   0.0   3.1  14.5  21.6   0.0 |  59.7
SL |  12.1   0.0   3.7   0.4   0.0         0.0   0.0   5.7   0.8   0.2   0.0 |   0.0
Cg |   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.6         0.0   4.8  18.1  24.3   0.0 |  50.9
Cr |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.0         0.7   5.1   8.7   0.0 |  85.2
Ha |   2.9   0.0   0.9   0.2   0.0   1.4   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.0 |   0.0
Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0 |   0.0
Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0 |   0.0
Qu |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.6   2.7       |  95.3

Hosts are listed top to bottom, visitors are across the top
(e.g., RPI has a 36.0% chance of hosting SLU in the first round).
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2013-2014

Does anyone still read these?

Projected Standings
1. Union (34)
2. Quinnipiac (31)
3. Colgate (29)
4. Cornell (28)
-----
5. Clarkson (27)
6. Yale (24)
7. RPI (20)
8. St. Lawrence (19)
-----
9. Brown (19)
10. Harvard (15)
11. Dartmouth (9)
12. Princeton (8)

Monte Carlo:
Code: 
1,000,000 simulations (of 150,094,635,296,999,121 possibilities)

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  329.0 |  [B]82.5[/B]  12.6   3.4   1.1   0.3   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.24 | 33.73
Qu |  324.6 |  11.6  [B]53.6[/B]  18.5   9.8   5.0   1.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.47 | 30.70
Cg |  191.3 |   3.8  16.7  [B]34.4[/B]  24.7  14.6   5.4   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.48 | 28.38
Cr |  248.2 |   1.2  10.2  24.1  [B]30.5[/B]  27.4   6.0   0.5   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.93 | 27.88
Ck |  165.8 |   0.9   6.6  17.8  27.9  [B]35.5[/B]  10.3   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.26 | 27.09
Ya |  172.0 |   0.0   0.3   1.8   5.5  15.3  [B]61.8[/B]  11.8   2.9   0.6   0.0     x     x |  5.87 | 24.17
RP |  119.7 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   8.2  [B]36.1[/B]  27.2  22.1   4.4   0.0     x |  7.72 | 20.22
SL |  117.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.7  22.9  31.8  [B]35.5[/B]   6.8   0.1   0.0 |  8.20 | 19.38
Br |  116.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   4.0  26.1  [B]33.8[/B]  29.9   6.1   0.0   0.0 |  8.08 | 19.37
Ha |   77.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.3   4.1  11.8  [B]80.0[/B]   2.5   0.1 |  9.78 | 15.20
Da |   35.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.4  [B]70.4[/B]  27.2 | 11.25 |  9.70
Pr |   24.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3  27.0  [B]72.8[/B] | 11.72 |  8.17

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely rank.
0.0 means the team did place in that position, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the team never finished in that position.

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    RP    Un    Br    Ya    Ck    SL    Cg    Cr    Ha    Da    Pr    Qu |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RP |         0.0  15.1   0.1   0.0  15.8   0.0   0.0  31.5   7.1   3.4   0.0 |   0.5
Un |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.0 |  99.6
Br |  10.7   0.0         0.2   0.0  22.4   0.0   0.0  25.9   3.4   1.3   0.0 |   0.0
Ya |   0.9   0.0   1.7         0.0   2.2   0.0   0.0  11.2  48.1  27.6   0.0 |   7.6
Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0         0.1   0.0   0.0   1.0  16.8  28.8   0.0 |  53.2
SL |  13.2   0.0  16.9   0.2   0.0         0.0   0.0  23.8   2.5   0.9   0.0 |   0.0
Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1         0.0   0.4   7.8  12.1   0.0 |  79.6
Cr |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0         0.6  11.7  21.6   0.0 |  66.0
Ha |   1.6   0.0   2.0   0.1   0.0   1.6   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.0   0.0 |   0.0
Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0 |   0.0
Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0 |   0.0
Qu |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.3   4.0       |  93.5

Hosts are listed top to bottom, visitors are across the top
(e.g., RPI has a 15.1% chance of hosting Brown in the first round).
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2013-2014

lugnut92 said:
Does anyone still read these?

Projected Standings
1. Union (34)
2. Quinnipiac (31)
3. Colgate (29)
4. Cornell (28)
-----
5. Clarkson (27)
6. Yale (24)
7. RPI (20)
8. St. Lawrence (19)
-----
9. Brown (19)
10. Harvard (15)
11. Dartmouth (9)
12. Princeton (8)

Monte Carlo:
Code: 
1,000,000 simulations (of 150,094,635,296,999,121 possibilities)

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  329.0 |  [B]82.5[/B]  12.6   3.4   1.1   0.3   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.24 | 33.73
Qu |  324.6 |  11.6  [B]53.6[/B]  18.5   9.8   5.0   1.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.47 | 30.70
Cg |  191.3 |   3.8  16.7  [B]34.4[/B]  24.7  14.6   5.4   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.48 | 28.38
Cr |  248.2 |   1.2  10.2  24.1  [B]30.5[/B]  27.4   6.0   0.5   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.93 | 27.88
Ck |  165.8 |   0.9   6.6  17.8  27.9  [B]35.5[/B]  10.3   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.26 | 27.09
Ya |  172.0 |   0.0   0.3   1.8   5.5  15.3  [B]61.8[/B]  11.8   2.9   0.6   0.0     x     x |  5.87 | 24.17
RP |  119.7 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   8.2  [B]36.1[/B]  27.2  22.1   4.4   0.0     x |  7.72 | 20.22
SL |  117.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.7  22.9  31.8  [B]35.5[/B]   6.8   0.1   0.0 |  8.20 | 19.38
Br |  116.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   4.0  26.1  [B]33.8[/B]  29.9   6.1   0.0   0.0 |  8.08 | 19.37
Ha |   77.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.3   4.1  11.8  [B]80.0[/B]   2.5   0.1 |  9.78 | 15.20
Da |   35.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.4  [B]70.4[/B]  27.2 | 11.25 |  9.70
Pr |   24.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3  27.0  [B]72.8[/B] | 11.72 |  8.17

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely rank.
0.0 means the team did place in that position, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the team never finished in that position.

Playoffs:
Code: 
   |    RP    Un    Br    Ya    Ck    SL    Cg    Cr    Ha    Da    Pr    Qu |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RP |         0.0  15.1   0.1   0.0  15.8   0.0   0.0  31.5   7.1   3.4   0.0 |   0.5
Un |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.0 |  99.6
Br |  10.7   0.0         0.2   0.0  22.4   0.0   0.0  25.9   3.4   1.3   0.0 |   0.0
Ya |   0.9   0.0   1.7         0.0   2.2   0.0   0.0  11.2  48.1  27.6   0.0 |   7.6
Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0         0.1   0.0   0.0   1.0  16.8  28.8   0.0 |  53.2
SL |  13.2   0.0  16.9   0.2   0.0         0.0   0.0  23.8   2.5   0.9   0.0 |   0.0
Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1         0.0   0.4   7.8  12.1   0.0 |  79.6
Cr |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0         0.6  11.7  21.6   0.0 |  66.0
Ha |   1.6   0.0   2.0   0.1   0.0   1.6   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.0   0.0 |   0.0
Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0 |   0.0
Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0 |   0.0
Qu |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.3   4.0       |  93.5

Hosts are listed top to bottom, visitors are across the top
(e.g., RPI has a 15.1% chance of hosting Brown in the first round).
Click to expand...

Not enough simulations :eek:
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2013-2014

sshablak said:
Not enough simulations :eek:
Click to expand...

For the purpose at hand 10^6 should be just fine. I don't recall if lugnut has ever posted two sets of 10^6 simulations each to get idea as to how accurate this is, but I doubt that it would make a difference greater than 0.1 anywhere. One could get an additional "x" somewhere and a "0.00" could turn into an "x", but that is all which I would expect.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2013-2014

A million runs is all I'm really willing to do, as I don't really feel like letting the simulator run all week. For reference, a million runs takes ~341 seconds (2,932 runs/s).

Like Ralph said, let's compare! Here's a second 1,000,000 simulation run:

Code: 
1,000,000 simulations (of 150,094,635,296,999,121 possibilities)

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  329.0 |  [B]82.5[/B]  12.7   3.3   1.1   0.3   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.24 | 33.73
Qu |  324.6 |  11.6  [B]53.5[/B]  18.6   9.8   5.0   1.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.47 | 30.70
Cg |  191.3 |   3.8  16.8  [B]34.4[/B]  24.7  14.6   5.4   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.47 | 28.38
Cr |  248.2 |   1.2  10.2  24.1  [B]30.4[/B]  27.5   6.0   0.6   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.93 | 27.88
Ck |  165.8 |   0.9   6.6  17.7  28.0  [B]35.6[/B]  10.2   0.9   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  4.26 | 27.09
Ya |  172.0 |   0.0   0.3   1.8   5.5  15.2  [B]61.8[/B]  11.8   2.9   0.6   0.1     x     x |  5.87 | 24.17
RP |  119.7 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   8.2  [B]36.2[/B]  27.2  22.0   4.4   0.0     x |  7.72 | 20.23
SL |  117.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.7  22.9  31.9  [B]35.6[/B]   6.7   0.1   0.0 |  8.20 | 19.38
Br |  116.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   4.0  26.0  [B]33.7[/B]  30.0   6.1   0.0   0.0 |  8.08 | 19.37
Ha |   77.9 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.3   4.1  11.8  [B]80.0[/B]   2.6   0.1 |  9.78 | 15.20
Da |   35.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.4  [B]70.4[/B]  27.1 | 11.25 |  9.70
Pr |   24.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3  26.9  [B]72.8[/B] | 11.73 |  8.17

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely rank.
0.0 means the team did place in that position, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the team never finished in that position.

RPI's average points went up by 0.01, everyone else stayed the same (woo rounding). Colgate finishes 0.01 ranks higher, Princeton finishes 0.01 ranks lower. A couple of extra Xs appeared. Basically, it's the same.
 
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2013-2014

lugnut92 said:
RPI's average points went up by 0.01, everyone else stayed the same (woo rounding). Colgate finishes 0.01 ranks higher, Princeton finishes 0.01 ranks lower. A couple of extra Xs appeared. Basically, it's the same.
Click to expand...
:) When I wrote "a '0.00' could turn into an 'x'", I meant "an 'x" could turn into a '0.00'" because I had already written that another "x" could appear.
 
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2013-2014

lugnut92 said:
Fair enough, but it was reasonable to do what Ralph suggested. I want to show that my program is consistent.
Click to expand...

I thought sshablak was kidding but he didn't include a smiley. :) Having programmed many Monte Carlo simulations before I retired, it was clear that 10^6 was fine for three digit accuracy (xx.x%) unless one was concerned about exactly where x's should appear. Also, three digit accuracy seems like what one would want here.

The other reason that I commented was to assure lugnut that people are reading this. :)
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2013-2014

This is pretty much my most highly anticipated thread update each Sunday/Monday. I don't comment because no comment is generally required - it's fantastic information and exactly what I am curious about following the results of each weekend.
 
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