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ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
- Thread starter burgie12
- Start date
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
UC 33 - 37 [1-2]
Yale 32 - 36 [1-2]
--- Bye Lock - 27+
Cornell 24 - 28 [3-6]
DC 24 - 28 [3-6]
RPI 23 - 27 [3-6]
PU 22 - 26 [3-6]
--- Bye Eligible - 24+
--- Home Lock - 20+
CCT 17 - 21 [7-9]
QU 17 - 21 [7-10]
Brown 14 - 20 [7-12]
SLU 13 - 17 [8-12]
--- Home Eligible - 17+
Colgate 10 - 14 [9-12]
Harvard 9 - 15 [9-12]
Remaining League Schedules:
UC - QU, PU
Yale - Colgate, Cornell
Cornell - @Brown, @Yale
DC - SLU, CCT
RPI - PU, QU
PU - @RPI, @UC
CCT - @Harvard, @DC
QU - @UC, @RPI
Brown - Harvard, Cornell, Colgate
SLU - @DC, @Harvard
Colgate - @Yale, @Brown
Harvard - @Brown, CCT, SLU
slack.net ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script is awesome. That is all.
Cornell holds 3rd place over Dartmouth based on their season series win (3-1). Clarkson holds 7th place over Quinnipiac based on their number of ECAC wins (8 v 6).
With 3rd through 6th place being separated by only 2 points, all of those 4 teams can finish in any of the spots.
Tiebreakers for 3rd-6th place (winning team(s) listed first):
Cornell / Dartmouth - season series (3 v 1)
Cornell / Rensselaer - season series (4 v 0)
Cornell / Princeton (variable) - goes down to Record vs Top 4 teams... Cornell wins if it's a tie for 4th or 5th (if Dartmouth and / or Rensselaer gets involved). If Cornell beats Yale and loses to Brown while Princeton sweeps and the teams tie for 3rd, then it comes down to Record vs Top 8 teams, which looks like the Big Red wins no matter which teams end up on which side of the 8/9 line. If Cornell beats Brown and loses to Yale while Princeton sweeps and the teams tie for 3rd, then the Tigers win the Record vs Top 4 teams.
Rensselaer / Dartmouth - season series (4 v 0)
Rensselaer / Princeton - no matter what happens on Friday (as long as the tiebreaker actually gets applied)... A Friday tie gives Rensselaer the win on season series (3 v 1). A Princeton win on Friday and loss on Saturday with Rensselaer tying Quinnipiac gives Rensselaer the win on Record vs Top 4 teams. A Princeton win on Friday and tie on Saturday with Rensselaer beating Quinnipiac gives Rensselaer the win on ECAC wins (12 v 11). A Friday win for Rensselaer means that the tiebreaker cannot possibly be applied.
Dartmouth / Princeton - season series (4 v 0)
Cornell / Dartmouth / Princeton - head-to-head record (5 v 5 v 2) knocks out Princeton and Cornell wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Cornell / Rensselaer / Dartmouth - head-to-head record (7 v 4 v 1) and Rensselaer wins the head-to-head tiebreaker (see above)
Cornell / Rensselaer / Princeton - head-to-head record (6 where Princeton and Rensselaer each have 2 and can only pick up 2) while Rensselaer wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Rensselaer / Dartmouth / Princeton - head-to-head record (RPI already has 6 with the possibility to pick up points this weekend while Dartmouth is stuck at 4 and Princeton come into the weekend with 0). Dartmouth wins the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Cornell / Rensselaer / Dartmouth / Princeton - head-to-head record (The Big Red already has 9 points. The Engineers have 6 but can only get up to 8. The Big Green is stuck at 5 points. The Tigers come in with 2 but can only move up to 4.). Once Cornell takes 3rd, it moves down to the 3-way tie detailed directly above.
Tiebreakers for 7th-12th place (winning team(s) listed first):
Clarkson / Quinnipiac - ECAC wins, even if the Knights tie their last two games and Quinnipiac picks up their two points with a win and loss
Clarkson / Brown - season series (4 v 0)
Clarkson / St. Lawrence - season series (4 v 0)
St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac - season series (3 v 1)
St. Lawrence / Colgate - season series (4 v 0)
Brown / Quinnipiac - ECAC wins
Brown / St. Lawrence - season series (4 v 0)
Harvard / St. Lawrence - season series (either 4 v 0 or 3 v 1)
Harvard / Brown (variable) - very, very variable... Harvard sweeping their remaining 3 games with Brown only picking up 1 point gives Harvard the tiebreaker on ECAC wins (7 v 6). Harvard taking 5 points while Brown gets swept goes down to Record vs Top 4 teams. If RPI can grab a bye, then the Crimson pulls out a tie in points vs Top 4 teams (4 v 4). I thought that Harvard won the Record vs Top 8 competition (which they do in most scenarios), but I was able to find a way to get a tie. That means that it would go all the way down to head-to-head goal differential (which Harvard wins if they beat the Bears by at least 2 goals on Tuesday). If Harvard beats Brown by 1 goal on Tuesday, then it goes to Goal Differential against Top 4 teams. Since the Top 4 teams where this would even come into play would be Union, Yale, RPI, and Dartmouth and Harvard and Brown have already finished their series against these teams, Harvard already has Top 4 goal differential (-14 v -17) locked up. If the Engineers do not finish in the Top 4, then the Bears win on Record vs Top 4 teams (either 4 v 2 or 4 v 3).
Harvard / Colgate (variable) - very, very variable... they split the season series, but ECAC wins could break in either direction. Record vs Top 4 teams can also break in either direction depending on the teams involved. The Crimson would like to see Princeton get a bye while the Raiders are hoping to beat the Bulldogs and / or keep the Dartmouth Big Green in the Top 4. As far as I can tell, Record vs Top 8 would go to Colgate.
Colgate / Brown (variable) - once again breaks down to Record vs Top 4 teams... If Princeton and Cornell pick up the two remaining bye spots, then the Bears win 4 v 3. Any other combination of bye teams gives the tiebreaker to the Raiders.
Clarkson / St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac - head-to-head record (6 v 3 v 3) and SLU wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Clarkson / Brown / Quinnipiac - head-to-head record (6 v 4 (Qpac) v 2 (Brown)) and Brown wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Clarkson / Brown / St. Lawrence - head-to-head record (8 v 4 v 0) and Brown wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Brown / St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac - head-to-head record (6 v 4 v 2) and SLU wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Brown / St. Lawrence / Colgate - head-to-head record (6 v 4 v 2) and SLU wins with head-to-head tiebreaker
Harvard / St. Lawrence / Colgate - head-to-head record (either 6 v 4 v 2 with the Crimson beating the Saints and St. Lawrence winning the head-to-head tiebreaker against Colgate or 5 v 5 v 2 dropping the Raiders to 12th place and Harvard winning the season series 3 v 1)
Harvard / Brown / St. Lawrence - head-to-head record (6 v 6 v 0) drops St. Lawrence from the tiebreaker and Harvard would win the head-to-head tiebreaker based on wins (7 v 6) as detailed above
Clarkson / Brown / St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac - head-to-head record (10 v 6 v 5 v 3) goes to Clarkson and then it goes to the 4th 3-way tiebreaker detailed above
Brown / Harvard / St. Lawrence / Colgate - head-to-head record is either 8 v 7 v 5 v 4 with the Bears winning or 8 v 8 v 4 v 4 with Harvard and Brown tying for 9th and St. Lawrence and Colgate tying for 11th (SLU wins the head-to-head tiebreaker). The Harvard / Brown tie depends on whether or not Rensselaer makes it into a bye position.
No possible 5-way ties.
Quinnipiac can't win any tiebreakers that would be applicable (for example, they'd win a tiebreaker against Colgate, but who cares since they can't actually tie). Clarkson has set them up in a very, very good position with their series wins against the teams near them. The mess from 9th to 12th place is going to come down to the last couple games... as usual. Shocking, right?
UC 33 - 37 [1-2]
Yale 32 - 36 [1-2]
--- Bye Lock - 27+
Cornell 24 - 28 [3-6]
DC 24 - 28 [3-6]
RPI 23 - 27 [3-6]
PU 22 - 26 [3-6]
--- Bye Eligible - 24+
--- Home Lock - 20+
CCT 17 - 21 [7-9]
QU 17 - 21 [7-10]
Brown 14 - 20 [7-12]
SLU 13 - 17 [8-12]
--- Home Eligible - 17+
Colgate 10 - 14 [9-12]
Harvard 9 - 15 [9-12]
Remaining League Schedules:
UC - QU, PU
Yale - Colgate, Cornell
Cornell - @Brown, @Yale
DC - SLU, CCT
RPI - PU, QU
PU - @RPI, @UC
CCT - @Harvard, @DC
QU - @UC, @RPI
Brown - Harvard, Cornell, Colgate
SLU - @DC, @Harvard
Colgate - @Yale, @Brown
Harvard - @Brown, CCT, SLU
slack.net ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script is awesome. That is all.
Cornell holds 3rd place over Dartmouth based on their season series win (3-1). Clarkson holds 7th place over Quinnipiac based on their number of ECAC wins (8 v 6).
With 3rd through 6th place being separated by only 2 points, all of those 4 teams can finish in any of the spots.
Tiebreakers for 3rd-6th place (winning team(s) listed first):
Cornell / Dartmouth - season series (3 v 1)
Cornell / Rensselaer - season series (4 v 0)
Cornell / Princeton (variable) - goes down to Record vs Top 4 teams... Cornell wins if it's a tie for 4th or 5th (if Dartmouth and / or Rensselaer gets involved). If Cornell beats Yale and loses to Brown while Princeton sweeps and the teams tie for 3rd, then it comes down to Record vs Top 8 teams, which looks like the Big Red wins no matter which teams end up on which side of the 8/9 line. If Cornell beats Brown and loses to Yale while Princeton sweeps and the teams tie for 3rd, then the Tigers win the Record vs Top 4 teams.
Rensselaer / Dartmouth - season series (4 v 0)
Rensselaer / Princeton - no matter what happens on Friday (as long as the tiebreaker actually gets applied)... A Friday tie gives Rensselaer the win on season series (3 v 1). A Princeton win on Friday and loss on Saturday with Rensselaer tying Quinnipiac gives Rensselaer the win on Record vs Top 4 teams. A Princeton win on Friday and tie on Saturday with Rensselaer beating Quinnipiac gives Rensselaer the win on ECAC wins (12 v 11). A Friday win for Rensselaer means that the tiebreaker cannot possibly be applied.
Dartmouth / Princeton - season series (4 v 0)
Cornell / Dartmouth / Princeton - head-to-head record (5 v 5 v 2) knocks out Princeton and Cornell wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Cornell / Rensselaer / Dartmouth - head-to-head record (7 v 4 v 1) and Rensselaer wins the head-to-head tiebreaker (see above)
Cornell / Rensselaer / Princeton - head-to-head record (6 where Princeton and Rensselaer each have 2 and can only pick up 2) while Rensselaer wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Rensselaer / Dartmouth / Princeton - head-to-head record (RPI already has 6 with the possibility to pick up points this weekend while Dartmouth is stuck at 4 and Princeton come into the weekend with 0). Dartmouth wins the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Cornell / Rensselaer / Dartmouth / Princeton - head-to-head record (The Big Red already has 9 points. The Engineers have 6 but can only get up to 8. The Big Green is stuck at 5 points. The Tigers come in with 2 but can only move up to 4.). Once Cornell takes 3rd, it moves down to the 3-way tie detailed directly above.
Tiebreakers for 7th-12th place (winning team(s) listed first):
Clarkson / Quinnipiac - ECAC wins, even if the Knights tie their last two games and Quinnipiac picks up their two points with a win and loss
Clarkson / Brown - season series (4 v 0)
Clarkson / St. Lawrence - season series (4 v 0)
St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac - season series (3 v 1)
St. Lawrence / Colgate - season series (4 v 0)
Brown / Quinnipiac - ECAC wins
Brown / St. Lawrence - season series (4 v 0)
Harvard / St. Lawrence - season series (either 4 v 0 or 3 v 1)
Harvard / Brown (variable) - very, very variable... Harvard sweeping their remaining 3 games with Brown only picking up 1 point gives Harvard the tiebreaker on ECAC wins (7 v 6). Harvard taking 5 points while Brown gets swept goes down to Record vs Top 4 teams. If RPI can grab a bye, then the Crimson pulls out a tie in points vs Top 4 teams (4 v 4). I thought that Harvard won the Record vs Top 8 competition (which they do in most scenarios), but I was able to find a way to get a tie. That means that it would go all the way down to head-to-head goal differential (which Harvard wins if they beat the Bears by at least 2 goals on Tuesday). If Harvard beats Brown by 1 goal on Tuesday, then it goes to Goal Differential against Top 4 teams. Since the Top 4 teams where this would even come into play would be Union, Yale, RPI, and Dartmouth and Harvard and Brown have already finished their series against these teams, Harvard already has Top 4 goal differential (-14 v -17) locked up. If the Engineers do not finish in the Top 4, then the Bears win on Record vs Top 4 teams (either 4 v 2 or 4 v 3).
Harvard / Colgate (variable) - very, very variable... they split the season series, but ECAC wins could break in either direction. Record vs Top 4 teams can also break in either direction depending on the teams involved. The Crimson would like to see Princeton get a bye while the Raiders are hoping to beat the Bulldogs and / or keep the Dartmouth Big Green in the Top 4. As far as I can tell, Record vs Top 8 would go to Colgate.
Colgate / Brown (variable) - once again breaks down to Record vs Top 4 teams... If Princeton and Cornell pick up the two remaining bye spots, then the Bears win 4 v 3. Any other combination of bye teams gives the tiebreaker to the Raiders.
Clarkson / St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac - head-to-head record (6 v 3 v 3) and SLU wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Clarkson / Brown / Quinnipiac - head-to-head record (6 v 4 (Qpac) v 2 (Brown)) and Brown wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Clarkson / Brown / St. Lawrence - head-to-head record (8 v 4 v 0) and Brown wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Brown / St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac - head-to-head record (6 v 4 v 2) and SLU wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Brown / St. Lawrence / Colgate - head-to-head record (6 v 4 v 2) and SLU wins with head-to-head tiebreaker
Harvard / St. Lawrence / Colgate - head-to-head record (either 6 v 4 v 2 with the Crimson beating the Saints and St. Lawrence winning the head-to-head tiebreaker against Colgate or 5 v 5 v 2 dropping the Raiders to 12th place and Harvard winning the season series 3 v 1)
Harvard / Brown / St. Lawrence - head-to-head record (6 v 6 v 0) drops St. Lawrence from the tiebreaker and Harvard would win the head-to-head tiebreaker based on wins (7 v 6) as detailed above
Clarkson / Brown / St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac - head-to-head record (10 v 6 v 5 v 3) goes to Clarkson and then it goes to the 4th 3-way tiebreaker detailed above
Brown / Harvard / St. Lawrence / Colgate - head-to-head record is either 8 v 7 v 5 v 4 with the Bears winning or 8 v 8 v 4 v 4 with Harvard and Brown tying for 9th and St. Lawrence and Colgate tying for 11th (SLU wins the head-to-head tiebreaker). The Harvard / Brown tie depends on whether or not Rensselaer makes it into a bye position.
No possible 5-way ties.
Quinnipiac can't win any tiebreakers that would be applicable (for example, they'd win a tiebreaker against Colgate, but who cares since they can't actually tie). Clarkson has set them up in a very, very good position with their series wins against the teams near them. The mess from 9th to 12th place is going to come down to the last couple games... as usual. Shocking, right?
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
On Friday night (after that night's games), I will have a post giving a detailed list of the possible scenarios that will give each team their best possible finish. But, "Sully" will likely have a quicker set of possible finishes up on the ECAC blog. Tom Reale or Gary Russinko of Without a Peer will also likely have a similar post, or at least a couple of tweets regarding possible finishes. Brendan Roche (aka alslammerz) also does an excellent job of keeping up with the ECAC as a whole and will probably have a post up on the WHRB blog, at least with how the Crimson can improve their standing. Basically, what I'm saying, is that if you're looking for timeliness, you probably shouldn't come here. I would only bookmark this thread if you're looking for a half-azzed, poorly done attempt to find all of the different possible scenarios.
UC 33 - 37 [1-2]
Yale 32 - 36 [1-2]
--- Bye Lock - 27+
Cornell 24 - 28 [3-6]
DC 24 - 28 [3-6]
RPI 23 - 27 [3-6]
PU 22 - 26 [3-6]
--- Bye Eligible - 24+
--- Home Lock - 18+
CCT 17 - 21 [7-9]
QU 17 - 21 [7-10]
Brown 14 - 18 [7-12]
SLU 13 - 17 [8-12]
--- Home Eligible - 17+
Harvard 11 - 15 [9-12]
Colgate 10 - 14 [9-12]
Remaining League Schedules:
UC - QU, PU
Yale - Colgate, Cornell
Cornell - @Brown, @Yale
DC - SLU, CCT
RPI - PU, QU
PU - @RPI, @UC
CCT - @Harvard, @DC
QU - @UC, @RPI
Brown - Cornell, Colgate
SLU - @DC, @Harvard
Harvard - CCT, SLU
Colgate - @Yale, @Brown
slack.net's ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script is awesome. That is all.
Cornell holds 3rd place over Dartmouth based on their season series win (3-1). Clarkson holds 7th place over Quinnipiac based on their number of ECAC wins (8 v 6).
FINALLY! All of the teams have played the same number of (league) games.
With 3rd through 6th place being separated by only 2 points, all of those 4 teams can finish in any of the spots.
None of these tiebreakers have changed since my post this morning (so, if you want details, look above):
Tiebreakers for 3rd-6th place (winning team(s) listed first):
Cornell / Dartmouth
Cornell / Rensselaer
Cornell / Princeton (variable)
Rensselaer / Dartmouth
Rensselaer / Princeton
Dartmouth / Princeton
Cornell / Dartmouth / Princeton
Cornell / Rensselaer / Dartmouth
Cornell / Rensselaer / Princeton
Rensselaer / Dartmouth / Princeton
Cornell / Rensselaer / Dartmouth / Princeton
There are a couple different tiers in the race for 7th / 9th place. But, the tiebreakers abound! For tiebreakers that don't involve Brown or Harvard, I eliminated the associated text. I delved deeper into most of the Brown / Harvard-related tiebreakers and reworded them while also finding new scenarios that I did not see yesterday.
Tiebreakers for 7th-12th place (winning team(s) listed first):
Clarkson / Quinnipiac
Clarkson / Brown
Clarkson / St. Lawrence
St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac
St. Lawrence / Colgate
Brown / Quinnipiac - ECAC wins
Brown / St. Lawrence - season series (4 v 0)
Harvard / St. Lawrence - season series (either 4 v 0 or 3 v 1)
Harvard / Brown (variable) - very, very variable... A Harvard sweep this upcoming weekend with Brown only picking up 1 point gives Harvard the tiebreaker on ECAC wins (7 v 6).
If Harvard only takes 3 points while Brown gets swept, the tiebreaker goes down to Record vs Top 4 teams.
Brown wins Record vs Top 4 teams (4 v 2 (Cornell, Dartmouth) or 4 v 3 (Cornell, Princeton) <s>or 2 v 1 (Dartmouth, Princeton)</s> *not possible*) if RPI does not finish in the Top 4.
If RPI can grab a bye, then the Crimson pulls out a tie in points vs Top 4 teams (4 v 4 (Cornell) or 2 v 2 (Dartmouth)).
If Harvard beats Clarkson and ties St. Lawrence, then Harvard wins Record vs Top 8 (7 v 6).
If Harvard ties Clarkson and beats St. Lawrence, then the Crimson and Bears tie Record vs Top 8 (6 v 6).
Head-to-Head Goal Differential is a wash at 0.
Top 4 Goal Differential is already locked in in favor of the Crimson (-5 v -12 (Cornell) or -14 v -17 (Dartmouth)).
Harvard / Colgate (variable) - very, very variable... still too close to call. They split the season series and that's about the only thing that's certain here. Harvard wants to see Princeton move into a Top 4 position. Colgate wants to see Dartmouth stay in a bye position.
Colgate / Brown (variable) - once again breaks down to Record vs Top 4 teams... If Princeton and Cornell pick up the two remaining bye spots, then the Bears win 4 v 3. Any other combination of bye teams gives the tiebreaker to the Raiders (5 v 4 (Cornell, Dartmouth or Cornell, Rensselaer) or 6 v 2 (Dartmouth, Rensselaer)).
Clarkson / St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac
Clarkson / Brown / Quinnipiac - Nothing changes here. Brown can still end up in a 3-way tie with these two teams.
Clarkson / Brown / St. Lawrence - Still possible. And, head-to-head record is still 8 v 4 v 0.
Brown / St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac - No changes. Brown wins the head-to-head record (6 v 4 v 2) and SLU wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Brown / St. Lawrence / Colgate - No change here, either. Brown takes home the 3-way tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (6 v 4 v 2) and SLU wins with head-to-head tiebreaker.
Harvard / St. Lawrence / Colgate - The head-to-head record gives Harvard the win (6 v 4 v 2 if Harvard beats SLU) or drops Colgate down to 12th place (5 v 5 v 2 if Harvard and SLU tie). The Saints win the SLU / Colgate head-to-head tiebreaker and the Crimson win the Harvard / St. Lawrence tiebreaker (3 v 1).
Brown / Harvard / St. Lawrence (variable) - If they tie at 15 points, then Harvard beat St. Lawrence on Saturday and the head-to-head record goes to 6 v 6 v 0, dropping St. Lawrence to the lowest position. The Harvard / Brown head-to-head tiebreaker would fall in the "Harvard sweeps" category, meaning that the Crimson takes the top spot based on wins (7 v 6).
If they tie at 14 points because Harvard and St. Lawrence tie, then the head-to-head tiebreaker goes to the Bears (6 v 5 v 1).
If they tie at 14 points by Harvard beating St. Lawrence and tying Clarkson with St. Lawrence tying Dartmouth, then the head-to-head record is 6 v 6 v 0 (once again dropping St. Lawrence). The Harvard / Brown tiebreaker depends on which teams make it into the Bye position. If RPI gets into the Top 4, then the Harvard / Brown tiebreaker goes down to Top 4 Goal Differential, which breaks in favor of the Crimson. If Rensselaer does not get into the Top 4, then the Bears win the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Clarkson / Brown / St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac
Brown / Harvard / St. Lawrence / Colgate - If Harvard and St. Lawrence tie, then Brown wins 9th place by head-to-head points (8 (Brown) v 7 (Harvard) v 5 (St. Lawrence) v 4 (Colgate)). The Harvard / St. Lawrence / Colgate tie drops the Raiders to 12th place by head-to-head points (5 v 5 v 2). Harvard takes 10th place based on winning the season series 3-1.
If Harvard beats St. Lawrence to come up with this 4-way tie, then the head-to-head record becomes a pair of ties (8 (Brown) v 8 (Harvard) v 4 (St. Lawrence) v 4 (Colgate)). The Harvard / Brown tie would come down to which teams finish with a bye. The St. Lawrence / Colgate tie goes to the Saints on the basis of their season sweep.
On Friday night (after that night's games), I will have a post giving a detailed list of the possible scenarios that will give each team their best possible finish. But, "Sully" will likely have a quicker set of possible finishes up on the ECAC blog. Tom Reale or Gary Russinko of Without a Peer will also likely have a similar post, or at least a couple of tweets regarding possible finishes. Brendan Roche (aka alslammerz) also does an excellent job of keeping up with the ECAC as a whole and will probably have a post up on the WHRB blog, at least with how the Crimson can improve their standing. Basically, what I'm saying, is that if you're looking for timeliness, you probably shouldn't come here. I would only bookmark this thread if you're looking for a half-azzed, poorly done attempt to find all of the different possible scenarios.
UC 33 - 37 [1-2]
Yale 32 - 36 [1-2]
--- Bye Lock - 27+
Cornell 24 - 28 [3-6]
DC 24 - 28 [3-6]
RPI 23 - 27 [3-6]
PU 22 - 26 [3-6]
--- Bye Eligible - 24+
--- Home Lock - 18+
CCT 17 - 21 [7-9]
QU 17 - 21 [7-10]
Brown 14 - 18 [7-12]
SLU 13 - 17 [8-12]
--- Home Eligible - 17+
Harvard 11 - 15 [9-12]
Colgate 10 - 14 [9-12]
Remaining League Schedules:
UC - QU, PU
Yale - Colgate, Cornell
Cornell - @Brown, @Yale
DC - SLU, CCT
RPI - PU, QU
PU - @RPI, @UC
CCT - @Harvard, @DC
QU - @UC, @RPI
Brown - Cornell, Colgate
SLU - @DC, @Harvard
Harvard - CCT, SLU
Colgate - @Yale, @Brown
slack.net's ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script is awesome. That is all.
Cornell holds 3rd place over Dartmouth based on their season series win (3-1). Clarkson holds 7th place over Quinnipiac based on their number of ECAC wins (8 v 6).
FINALLY! All of the teams have played the same number of (league) games.
With 3rd through 6th place being separated by only 2 points, all of those 4 teams can finish in any of the spots.
None of these tiebreakers have changed since my post this morning (so, if you want details, look above):
Tiebreakers for 3rd-6th place (winning team(s) listed first):
Cornell / Dartmouth
Cornell / Rensselaer
Cornell / Princeton (variable)
Rensselaer / Dartmouth
Rensselaer / Princeton
Dartmouth / Princeton
Cornell / Dartmouth / Princeton
Cornell / Rensselaer / Dartmouth
Cornell / Rensselaer / Princeton
Rensselaer / Dartmouth / Princeton
Cornell / Rensselaer / Dartmouth / Princeton
There are a couple different tiers in the race for 7th / 9th place. But, the tiebreakers abound! For tiebreakers that don't involve Brown or Harvard, I eliminated the associated text. I delved deeper into most of the Brown / Harvard-related tiebreakers and reworded them while also finding new scenarios that I did not see yesterday.
Tiebreakers for 7th-12th place (winning team(s) listed first):
Clarkson / Quinnipiac
Clarkson / Brown
Clarkson / St. Lawrence
St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac
St. Lawrence / Colgate
Brown / Quinnipiac - ECAC wins
Brown / St. Lawrence - season series (4 v 0)
Harvard / St. Lawrence - season series (either 4 v 0 or 3 v 1)
Harvard / Brown (variable) - very, very variable... A Harvard sweep this upcoming weekend with Brown only picking up 1 point gives Harvard the tiebreaker on ECAC wins (7 v 6).
If Harvard only takes 3 points while Brown gets swept, the tiebreaker goes down to Record vs Top 4 teams.
Brown wins Record vs Top 4 teams (4 v 2 (Cornell, Dartmouth) or 4 v 3 (Cornell, Princeton) <s>or 2 v 1 (Dartmouth, Princeton)</s> *not possible*) if RPI does not finish in the Top 4.
If RPI can grab a bye, then the Crimson pulls out a tie in points vs Top 4 teams (4 v 4 (Cornell) or 2 v 2 (Dartmouth)).
If Harvard beats Clarkson and ties St. Lawrence, then Harvard wins Record vs Top 8 (7 v 6).
If Harvard ties Clarkson and beats St. Lawrence, then the Crimson and Bears tie Record vs Top 8 (6 v 6).
Head-to-Head Goal Differential is a wash at 0.
Top 4 Goal Differential is already locked in in favor of the Crimson (-5 v -12 (Cornell) or -14 v -17 (Dartmouth)).
Harvard / Colgate (variable) - very, very variable... still too close to call. They split the season series and that's about the only thing that's certain here. Harvard wants to see Princeton move into a Top 4 position. Colgate wants to see Dartmouth stay in a bye position.
Colgate / Brown (variable) - once again breaks down to Record vs Top 4 teams... If Princeton and Cornell pick up the two remaining bye spots, then the Bears win 4 v 3. Any other combination of bye teams gives the tiebreaker to the Raiders (5 v 4 (Cornell, Dartmouth or Cornell, Rensselaer) or 6 v 2 (Dartmouth, Rensselaer)).
Clarkson / St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac
Clarkson / Brown / Quinnipiac - Nothing changes here. Brown can still end up in a 3-way tie with these two teams.
Clarkson / Brown / St. Lawrence - Still possible. And, head-to-head record is still 8 v 4 v 0.
Brown / St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac - No changes. Brown wins the head-to-head record (6 v 4 v 2) and SLU wins the head-to-head tiebreaker
Brown / St. Lawrence / Colgate - No change here, either. Brown takes home the 3-way tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (6 v 4 v 2) and SLU wins with head-to-head tiebreaker.
Harvard / St. Lawrence / Colgate - The head-to-head record gives Harvard the win (6 v 4 v 2 if Harvard beats SLU) or drops Colgate down to 12th place (5 v 5 v 2 if Harvard and SLU tie). The Saints win the SLU / Colgate head-to-head tiebreaker and the Crimson win the Harvard / St. Lawrence tiebreaker (3 v 1).
Brown / Harvard / St. Lawrence (variable) - If they tie at 15 points, then Harvard beat St. Lawrence on Saturday and the head-to-head record goes to 6 v 6 v 0, dropping St. Lawrence to the lowest position. The Harvard / Brown head-to-head tiebreaker would fall in the "Harvard sweeps" category, meaning that the Crimson takes the top spot based on wins (7 v 6).
If they tie at 14 points because Harvard and St. Lawrence tie, then the head-to-head tiebreaker goes to the Bears (6 v 5 v 1).
If they tie at 14 points by Harvard beating St. Lawrence and tying Clarkson with St. Lawrence tying Dartmouth, then the head-to-head record is 6 v 6 v 0 (once again dropping St. Lawrence). The Harvard / Brown tiebreaker depends on which teams make it into the Bye position. If RPI gets into the Top 4, then the Harvard / Brown tiebreaker goes down to Top 4 Goal Differential, which breaks in favor of the Crimson. If Rensselaer does not get into the Top 4, then the Bears win the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Clarkson / Brown / St. Lawrence / Quinnipiac
Brown / Harvard / St. Lawrence / Colgate - If Harvard and St. Lawrence tie, then Brown wins 9th place by head-to-head points (8 (Brown) v 7 (Harvard) v 5 (St. Lawrence) v 4 (Colgate)). The Harvard / St. Lawrence / Colgate tie drops the Raiders to 12th place by head-to-head points (5 v 5 v 2). Harvard takes 10th place based on winning the season series 3-1.
If Harvard beats St. Lawrence to come up with this 4-way tie, then the head-to-head record becomes a pair of ties (8 (Brown) v 8 (Harvard) v 4 (St. Lawrence) v 4 (Colgate)). The Harvard / Brown tie would come down to which teams finish with a bye. The St. Lawrence / Colgate tie goes to the Saints on the basis of their season sweep.
Last edited:
StayPuftMMcu
Registered User
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
Because of Clarkson's tiebreaker wins and Brown's loss last night, the "home lock" is now 18 points for Clarkson and 19 points for Quinnipiac. Odd situation, that.
Because of Clarkson's tiebreaker wins and Brown's loss last night, the "home lock" is now 18 points for Clarkson and 19 points for Quinnipiac. Odd situation, that.
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
You're right. I forgot to look at the home / bye levels because I was so focused on the tiebreakers.
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
I threw together a little Monte Carlo simulation of the last 12 games for a thread over on eLynah. Here are the probabilities I came up with, where the results of the remaining games are based on the current KRACH ratings (including all games, not just ECAC games) of the teams. My method does allow for ties (though this could use some improvement) AND my code is not up to date with the latest tiebreaking procedure (it's from 2003 or so), but with those caveats, here's approximately the situation (after 1 million trial runs):
I threw together a little Monte Carlo simulation of the last 12 games for a thread over on eLynah. Here are the probabilities I came up with, where the results of the remaining games are based on the current KRACH ratings (including all games, not just ECAC games) of the teams. My method does allow for ties (though this could use some improvement) AND my code is not up to date with the latest tiebreaking procedure (it's from 2003 or so), but with those caveats, here's approximately the situation (after 1 million trial runs):
Code:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Union 81.0% 19.0%
Yale 19.0% 81.0%
Cornell 83.1% 14.7% 2.2%
Dartmouth 9.8% 36.2% 42.7% 11.3%
Rensselaer 2.5% 29.5% 25.3% 42.7%
Princeton 4.6% 19.6% 29.8% 46.0%
Quinnipiac 68.0% 30.6% 1.3% 0.1%
Clarkson 32.0% 68.0%
St. Lawrence 0.8% 54.9% 44.2%
Brown 0.6% 43.8% 45.9% 9.7%
Colgate 9.7% 73.2% 17.0%
Harvard 17.0% 83.0%Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
Nice job, but with only 4096 possibilities, wouldn't it be easy enough to use the Krach results exactly? (OK, to be fair, with ties, there are 531,441 possibilities, but still...) By the way, how do you adjust Krach for tie predictions?
Nice job, but with only 4096 possibilities, wouldn't it be easy enough to use the Krach results exactly? (OK, to be fair, with ties, there are 531,441 possibilities, but still...) By the way, how do you adjust Krach for tie predictions?
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
Yes, but:
a) I didn't have time to write the code to cycle through all the possibilities methodically - much easier just to assign random results to the remaining games and let 'er rip
and
b) I wanted to keep it general so that I might be able to use it in future seasons earlier in the season, when the # of permutations would be prohibitive
For ties, here's what I did so far (I emphasize that I am NOT happy with this):
I looked across all games played this year, and about 13% have been ties. Say that KRACH tells me that the probability of A beating B is 70%. I choose a random number between 0 and 1 for the result. Normally, you if the number is less than .7, you would call that a W for team A, and if it's above .7, it's an L. I added a "gray" zone centered on 0.7 that is .13 wide, and if the random number ends up in that range, it's a tie. So, for this example, a random number between .635 and .765 would be called a tie. If the raw probability is within 6.5% of 0 or 100, I slide the "tie zone" so that it ends halfway between the probability and the end of the scale. For example, if the probability of a win is 95%, then the "tie zone" would go from 84.5% to 97.5% (still 13% wide). Therefore, each game has a 13% chance of being a tie, so the total number of ties will be 13% (for a large sample).
Of course, the obvious problem is that every game should NOT have the same probability of having a tie. A pair of teams with a large discrepancy in KRACH ratings should clearly have less probability of tying than two teams with nearly identical ratings. So I need to figure out how to scale the "tie" zone based on the discrepancy in the pair under consideration, while making sure that the total number of ties comes out approximately correct, and I just didn't have time to think about that any farther yet. So, the results I have given are probably a little bit biased in favor of the lower teams - it gives them a higher probability of tying the really good teams than they probably really should get credit for.
Yes, but:
a) I didn't have time to write the code to cycle through all the possibilities methodically - much easier just to assign random results to the remaining games and let 'er rip
and
b) I wanted to keep it general so that I might be able to use it in future seasons earlier in the season, when the # of permutations would be prohibitive
For ties, here's what I did so far (I emphasize that I am NOT happy with this):
I looked across all games played this year, and about 13% have been ties. Say that KRACH tells me that the probability of A beating B is 70%. I choose a random number between 0 and 1 for the result. Normally, you if the number is less than .7, you would call that a W for team A, and if it's above .7, it's an L. I added a "gray" zone centered on 0.7 that is .13 wide, and if the random number ends up in that range, it's a tie. So, for this example, a random number between .635 and .765 would be called a tie. If the raw probability is within 6.5% of 0 or 100, I slide the "tie zone" so that it ends halfway between the probability and the end of the scale. For example, if the probability of a win is 95%, then the "tie zone" would go from 84.5% to 97.5% (still 13% wide). Therefore, each game has a 13% chance of being a tie, so the total number of ties will be 13% (for a large sample).
Of course, the obvious problem is that every game should NOT have the same probability of having a tie. A pair of teams with a large discrepancy in KRACH ratings should clearly have less probability of tying than two teams with nearly identical ratings. So I need to figure out how to scale the "tie" zone based on the discrepancy in the pair under consideration, while making sure that the total number of ties comes out approximately correct, and I just didn't have time to think about that any farther yet. So, the results I have given are probably a little bit biased in favor of the lower teams - it gives them a higher probability of tying the really good teams than they probably really should get credit for.
StayPuftMMcu
Registered User
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
Wouldn't you be able to create a sliding scale of probability that would result in a total of ~13% ties, but with a wider range as the game is rated at about 50-50 and a narrower range as the game approaches a 100-0 chance of victory/loss for one team? Say at 50-50 there's a 20% chance of tying, at 100-0 there's 0% chance of tying, and a sliding scale in between that allows for the total probability to equal out to 13% when all games are played?
I haven't done the math at all, but hopefully I've explained it well enough.
Wouldn't you be able to create a sliding scale of probability that would result in a total of ~13% ties, but with a wider range as the game is rated at about 50-50 and a narrower range as the game approaches a 100-0 chance of victory/loss for one team? Say at 50-50 there's a 20% chance of tying, at 100-0 there's 0% chance of tying, and a sliding scale in between that allows for the total probability to equal out to 13% when all games are played?
I haven't done the math at all, but hopefully I've explained it well enough.
Ralph Baer
Let's Go 'Tute!
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
At least for me, the columns aren't lining up correctly. They don't on eLynah either. For example, all of Princeton's numbers should be one column to the right.
At least for me, the columns aren't lining up correctly. They don't on eLynah either. For example, all of Princeton's numbers should be one column to the right.
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
The first (obvious, but also obviously incorrect) idea is to make the likelihood of a tie go from 0% (when there's 0% chance of a win) up to 26% when the game is exactly 50-50. This seems to make sense initially, since the "average" likelihood of a tie would then seem to be the average of 0 and 26, which is the desired 13%. However, given that there are so many 50-50 games played, the actual percentage of ties that you would get out of the simulation would be far too high - probably approaching 26%, in fact.
I'm working on some other ideas in the back of my mind, but haven't had a chance to work them out mathematically (or more likely, given my temperament, just code the suckers up and see if they work!).
Yes - and that is exactly what I plan to do. The trick is in picking the sliding scale. There are a whole lot more 50-50 games played than 90-10s, because most teams' KRACH ratings aren't all that far apart - they tend to cluster together, with only a few high and low outliers. So the trick is to slide the scale so that it "feels" right (in that a lousy team should have some small, but finite, chance to tie a great team) while still making the overall proportion of ties come out correct.
The first (obvious, but also obviously incorrect) idea is to make the likelihood of a tie go from 0% (when there's 0% chance of a win) up to 26% when the game is exactly 50-50. This seems to make sense initially, since the "average" likelihood of a tie would then seem to be the average of 0 and 26, which is the desired 13%. However, given that there are so many 50-50 games played, the actual percentage of ties that you would get out of the simulation would be far too high - probably approaching 26%, in fact.
I'm working on some other ideas in the back of my mind, but haven't had a chance to work them out mathematically (or more likely, given my temperament, just code the suckers up and see if they work!).
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
Hmmm - apologies! My html is far weaker than my math... Princeton should have a 4.6% chance of finishing 3rd, which is what it looks like to me (using Chrome 9.0.597.98) - even when you requote the message back to me. Interestingly, I copied and pasted that from Excel, and I did have to delete some of the tabs to get it to look correct in my browser. Here's what it looks like if I just paste in the raw excel and don't fix it so it looks right to me:
I'm guessing that this has to do with the length of the team names. Maybe it would help if I shorten them:
Yep - the first version above still looks wrong to me, but the 2nd one looks right.
Hmmm - apologies! My html is far weaker than my math... Princeton should have a 4.6% chance of finishing 3rd, which is what it looks like to me (using Chrome 9.0.597.98) - even when you requote the message back to me. Interestingly, I copied and pasted that from Excel, and I did have to delete some of the tabs to get it to look correct in my browser. Here's what it looks like if I just paste in the raw excel and don't fix it so it looks right to me:
Code:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Union 81.0% 19.0%
Yale 19.0% 81.0%
Cornell 83.1% 14.7% 2.2%
Dartmouth 9.8% 36.2% 42.7% 11.3%
Rensselaer 2.5% 29.5% 25.3% 42.7%
Princeton 4.6% 19.6% 29.8% 46.0%
Quinnipiac 68.0% 30.6% 1.3% 0.1%
Clarkson 32.0% 68.0%
St. Lawrence 0.8% 54.9% 44.2%
Brown 0.6% 43.8% 45.9% 9.7%
Colgate 9.7% 73.2% 17.0%
Harvard 17.0% 83.0%I'm guessing that this has to do with the length of the team names. Maybe it would help if I shorten them:
Code:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
UC 81.0% 19.0%
YU 19.0% 81.0%
Corn 83.1% 14.7% 2.2%
DC 9.8% 36.2% 42.7% 11.3%
RPI 2.5% 29.5% 25.3% 42.7%
PU 4.6% 19.6% 29.8% 46.0%
QU 68.0% 30.6% 1.3% 0.1%
CCT 32.0% 68.0%
SLU 0.8% 54.9% 44.2%
BU 0.6% 43.8% 45.9% 9.7%
Gate 9.7% 73.2% 17.0%
HU 17.0% 83.0%Yep - the first version above still looks wrong to me, but the 2nd one looks right.
Last edited:
Ralph Baer
Let's Go 'Tute!
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
The new one is fine. The simplest way around it is to use spaces instead of tabs.
The new one is fine. The simplest way around it is to use spaces instead of tabs.
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
Thanks LynahFan. I was asking about ties because I'm in the process of creating a new "tie-enabled" Krach right now. I'm still checking the method, and I'm probably not going to release it until the end of the season and start a discussion about it, but essentially it uses (for the math-enabled) a mutinomial logit with independent team tie intercepts. I'm collecting academic references now to make sure I implement it correctly. Preliminary results are interesting, though....
As to enumeration vs. Monte Carlo, I guess it's really just a question of what sort of programming you're used to. I'm a Monte Carlo fan as well, but enumeration always seems much tidier to me. Once the season's over and ties are no longer an issue, an enumerative program I have will easily do both the ECAC and NCAA tournaments.
Thanks LynahFan. I was asking about ties because I'm in the process of creating a new "tie-enabled" Krach right now. I'm still checking the method, and I'm probably not going to release it until the end of the season and start a discussion about it, but essentially it uses (for the math-enabled) a mutinomial logit with independent team tie intercepts. I'm collecting academic references now to make sure I implement it correctly. Preliminary results are interesting, though....
As to enumeration vs. Monte Carlo, I guess it's really just a question of what sort of programming you're used to. I'm a Monte Carlo fan as well, but enumeration always seems much tidier to me. Once the season's over and ties are no longer an issue, an enumerative program I have will easily do both the ECAC and NCAA tournaments.
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
Just lower the upper threshold of a tie to 18% or something. There's got to be a number that ensures the average will be 13% I havent had enough coffee to figure it out.
Just lower the upper threshold of a tie to 18% or something. There's got to be a number that ensures the average will be 13% I havent had enough coffee to figure it out.
alslammerz
Harvard Hockey Broadcaster '09-'12
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
I wouldn't call it a mathematical look but I tried going through every possible scenario and figuring out where that would leave teams. I think I got all of them but many other eyes would be helpful in case I missed anything or botched something. Will happily explain anything that I put if I can remember tomorrow why I thought that was the case. So here's a look at where every team can end up (and an explanation of how they can get there).
Help much appreciated.
PS- Here is Brian Sullivan's column as well.
I wouldn't call it a mathematical look but I tried going through every possible scenario and figuring out where that would leave teams. I think I got all of them but many other eyes would be helpful in case I missed anything or botched something. Will happily explain anything that I put if I can remember tomorrow why I thought that was the case. So here's a look at where every team can end up (and an explanation of how they can get there).
Help much appreciated.
PS- Here is Brian Sullivan's column as well.
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
I know that Brian Sullivan and Brendan Roche have already made significant posts on this subject, but I'm going to throw my hat in the ring anyways.
UC 34 - 36 [1-2]
Yale 33 - 35 [1-2]
DC 26 - 28 [3-4]
--- Bye Lock - 26+
Cornell 24 - 26 [3-6]
PU 24 - 26 [4-6]
RPI 23 - 25 [4-6]
--- Bye Eligible - 24+
--- Home Lock - 18+
QU 18 - 20 [7-9]
CCT 17 - 19 [7-9]
Brown 16 - 18 [7-9]
--- Home Eligible - 17+
Harvard 13 - 15 [10-11]
SLU 13 - 15 [10-11]
Colgate 11 - 13 [12-12]
Remaining League Schedules:
UC - PU
Yale - Cornell
DC - CCT
Cornell - @Yale
PU - @UC
RPI - QU
QU - @RPI
CCT - @DC
Brown - Colgate
Harvard - SLU
SLU - @Harvard
Colgate - @Brown
slack.net's ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script is really pretty awesome.
Cornell holds 4th place over Princeton based on Record vs Top 4 teams (3 v 0). Harvard holds 10th place over St. Lawrnece based on head-to-head points (2 v 0).
Possible Tiebreakers (winning team(s) listed first):
Yale / Union - A Yale win and Union tie gives the Elis the tiebreaker win based on ECAC wins (17 v 16). A Yale tie and Union loss lets Yale win the tiebreaker based on Record vs Top 4 teams (10 v 5).
Dartmouth / Princeton - Season series (4 v 0)
Cornell / Dartmouth - Season series (3 v 1)
Cornell / Princeton - Record vs Top 4 (3 v 0 or 4 v 1 or 5 v 2)
Cornell / Rensselaer - Season series (4 v 0)
Rensselaer / Princeton - An RPI win and Princeton tie gives the Engineers the tiebreaker win based on ECAC wins (12 v 11). An RPI tie and Princeton loss gives the Engineers the tiebreaker win on Record vs Top 4 teams (8 v 2).
Brown / Quinnipiac - ECAC wins (8 v 6)
Clarkson / Quinnipiac - ECAC wins (8 v 6 or 9 v 6)
Clarkson / Brown - Season series (4 v 0)
Harvard / St. Lawrence - Season series (3 v 1)
Harvard / Colgate - ECAC wins (6 v 5)
St. Lawrence / Colgate - Season series (4 v 0)
Cornell / Dartmouth / Princeton - head-to-head record (5 v 5 v 2) drops out Princeton. Cornell beats Dartmouth in the head-to-head tiebreaker
Cornell / Rensselaer / Princeton - head-to-head record (6 (Cornell) v 4 (Princeton) v 2 (Rensselaer)) gives the Big Red the 4th place position. Rensselaer beats Princeton in the head-to-head tiebreaker
Clarkson / Brown / Quinnipiac - head-to-head record (6 (Clarkson) v 4 (Quinnipiac) v 2 (Brown)) gives the Knights 7th place. The Bears take 8th based on the head-to-head tiebreaker
Best-case scenarios:
Union - 1st place
1) Win OR
2) Tie AND Yale Tie or Loss OR
3) Loss AND Yale Loss
Yale - 1st place
1) Win AND Union Tie or Loss OR
2) Tie AND Union Loss
Dartmouth - 3rd place
1) Win OR
2) Tie OR
3) Loss AND Cornell Tie or Loss (Princeton result doesn't matter)
Cornell - 3rd place
1) Win AND Dartmouth Loss (Princeton result doesn't matter)
Princeton - 4th place
1) Win AND Cornell Tie or Loss (Dartmouth result doesn't matter) OR
2) Tie AND Cornell Loss AND Rensselaer Tie or Loss
Rensselaer - 4th place
1) Win AND Cornell Loss AND Princeton Tie or Loss
Quinnipiac - 7th place
1) Win OR
2) Tie AND Clarkson Tie or Loss OR
3) Loss AND Clarkson Loss AND Brown Tie or Loss
Clarkson - 7th place
1) Win AND Quinnipiac Tie or Loss OR
2) Tie AND Quinnipiac Loss (Brown result doesn't matter)
Brown - 7th place
1) Win AND Quinnipiac Loss AND Clarkson Loss
Harvard - 10th place
1) Win OR
2) Tie
St. Lawrence - 10th place
1) Win
Other important scenarios:
Cornell - bye position
1) Win OR
2) Tie AND Princeton Tie or Loss OR
3) Loss AND Princeton Loss AND Rensselaer Tie or Loss
Quinnipiac - home-ice position
1) Win OR
2) Tie OR
3) Loss AND Clarkson Loss OR
4) Loss AND Brown Tie or Loss
Clarkson - home-ice position
1) Win OR
2) Tie OR
3) Loss AND Brown Tie or Loss
Brown - home-ice position
1) Win AND Quinnipiac Loss OR
2) Win AND Clarkson Loss
I know that Brian Sullivan and Brendan Roche have already made significant posts on this subject, but I'm going to throw my hat in the ring anyways.
UC 34 - 36 [1-2]
Yale 33 - 35 [1-2]
DC 26 - 28 [3-4]
--- Bye Lock - 26+
Cornell 24 - 26 [3-6]
PU 24 - 26 [4-6]
RPI 23 - 25 [4-6]
--- Bye Eligible - 24+
--- Home Lock - 18+
QU 18 - 20 [7-9]
CCT 17 - 19 [7-9]
Brown 16 - 18 [7-9]
--- Home Eligible - 17+
Harvard 13 - 15 [10-11]
SLU 13 - 15 [10-11]
Colgate 11 - 13 [12-12]
Remaining League Schedules:
UC - PU
Yale - Cornell
DC - CCT
Cornell - @Yale
PU - @UC
RPI - QU
QU - @RPI
CCT - @DC
Brown - Colgate
Harvard - SLU
SLU - @Harvard
Colgate - @Brown
slack.net's ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script is really pretty awesome.
Cornell holds 4th place over Princeton based on Record vs Top 4 teams (3 v 0). Harvard holds 10th place over St. Lawrnece based on head-to-head points (2 v 0).
Possible Tiebreakers (winning team(s) listed first):
Yale / Union - A Yale win and Union tie gives the Elis the tiebreaker win based on ECAC wins (17 v 16). A Yale tie and Union loss lets Yale win the tiebreaker based on Record vs Top 4 teams (10 v 5).
Dartmouth / Princeton - Season series (4 v 0)
Cornell / Dartmouth - Season series (3 v 1)
Cornell / Princeton - Record vs Top 4 (3 v 0 or 4 v 1 or 5 v 2)
Cornell / Rensselaer - Season series (4 v 0)
Rensselaer / Princeton - An RPI win and Princeton tie gives the Engineers the tiebreaker win based on ECAC wins (12 v 11). An RPI tie and Princeton loss gives the Engineers the tiebreaker win on Record vs Top 4 teams (8 v 2).
Brown / Quinnipiac - ECAC wins (8 v 6)
Clarkson / Quinnipiac - ECAC wins (8 v 6 or 9 v 6)
Clarkson / Brown - Season series (4 v 0)
Harvard / St. Lawrence - Season series (3 v 1)
Harvard / Colgate - ECAC wins (6 v 5)
St. Lawrence / Colgate - Season series (4 v 0)
Cornell / Dartmouth / Princeton - head-to-head record (5 v 5 v 2) drops out Princeton. Cornell beats Dartmouth in the head-to-head tiebreaker
Cornell / Rensselaer / Princeton - head-to-head record (6 (Cornell) v 4 (Princeton) v 2 (Rensselaer)) gives the Big Red the 4th place position. Rensselaer beats Princeton in the head-to-head tiebreaker
Clarkson / Brown / Quinnipiac - head-to-head record (6 (Clarkson) v 4 (Quinnipiac) v 2 (Brown)) gives the Knights 7th place. The Bears take 8th based on the head-to-head tiebreaker
Best-case scenarios:
Union - 1st place
1) Win OR
2) Tie AND Yale Tie or Loss OR
3) Loss AND Yale Loss
Yale - 1st place
1) Win AND Union Tie or Loss OR
2) Tie AND Union Loss
Dartmouth - 3rd place
1) Win OR
2) Tie OR
3) Loss AND Cornell Tie or Loss (Princeton result doesn't matter)
Cornell - 3rd place
1) Win AND Dartmouth Loss (Princeton result doesn't matter)
Princeton - 4th place
1) Win AND Cornell Tie or Loss (Dartmouth result doesn't matter) OR
2) Tie AND Cornell Loss AND Rensselaer Tie or Loss
Rensselaer - 4th place
1) Win AND Cornell Loss AND Princeton Tie or Loss
Quinnipiac - 7th place
1) Win OR
2) Tie AND Clarkson Tie or Loss OR
3) Loss AND Clarkson Loss AND Brown Tie or Loss
Clarkson - 7th place
1) Win AND Quinnipiac Tie or Loss OR
2) Tie AND Quinnipiac Loss (Brown result doesn't matter)
Brown - 7th place
1) Win AND Quinnipiac Loss AND Clarkson Loss
Harvard - 10th place
1) Win OR
2) Tie
St. Lawrence - 10th place
1) Win
Other important scenarios:
Cornell - bye position
1) Win OR
2) Tie AND Princeton Tie or Loss OR
3) Loss AND Princeton Loss AND Rensselaer Tie or Loss
Quinnipiac - home-ice position
1) Win OR
2) Tie OR
3) Loss AND Clarkson Loss OR
4) Loss AND Brown Tie or Loss
Clarkson - home-ice position
1) Win OR
2) Tie OR
3) Loss AND Brown Tie or Loss
Brown - home-ice position
1) Win AND Quinnipiac Loss OR
2) Win AND Clarkson Loss
alslammerz
Harvard Hockey Broadcaster '09-'12
Re: ECAC Home Stretch - A mathematical approach to Byes and Home-ice (2010-2011)
Burgie, just wanted add, thanks for doing this. My post would have taken 5x as long without the ECAC playoff script you posted. And the tiebreaking scenarios you posted were definitely a plus.
Burgie, just wanted add, thanks for doing this. My post would have taken 5x as long without the ECAC playoff script you posted. And the tiebreaking scenarios you posted were definitely a plus.