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Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

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Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Kepler said:
538 just flip-flopped Sanders and Biden in their model. Huh. It's happening. In all honesty I never imagined the US would grow up in my lifetime.
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Their model doesn’t pass the sniff test. Look at the individual states. The polls are so different than the projected votes. Some of that comes from front-runnerism, but not wholesale departures from core politics.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

dxmnkd316 said:
Their model doesn’t pass the sniff test. Look at the individual states. The polls are so different than the projected votes. Some of that comes from front-runnerism, but not wholesale departures from core politics.
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We'll see. I am extremely suspicious of "eye tests." And the dinosaurs never see the comet coming.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Kepler said:
We'll see. I am extremely suspicious of "eye tests." And the dinosaurs never see the comet coming.
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That’s fair, but do you really expect sanders to collect 30% of the vote in Texas? When he’s consistently polling around 20?

It’s one thing to win a Midwest white state like Iowa. It’s another to win a special administrative region like Texas.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Kepler said:
You're conflating a bunch of different things. It's true that graduating from a tier 1 is neither necessary nor sufficient proof of intellect. However, there is a non-zero correlation, once we take the rich goobers out of the pool. It doesn't mean everything. It does mean something.
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A lot of people who get into Harvard have professionals write their entry papers and have had tutors their whole lives helping them do and say all the right things to get into Harvard. I’m sure they’re of above average intelligence for the most part but that’s also partly because of all the advantages they had growing up. With Pete we’re talking about a guy who defended his police wearing t-shirts that said, “breathe easy don’t break the law” right around the time of Eric Garner’s death with a “both sides” argument that Rube would make. I suppose you could still be “smart” or not “mediocre” and make that argument but that’s not the most intelligent thing anyone has ever done
 
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Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

dxmnkd316 said:
That’s fair, but do you really expect sanders to collect 30% of the vote in Texas? When he’s consistently polling around 20?

It’s one thing to win a Midwest white state like Iowa. It’s another to win a special administrative region like Texas.
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Again, we'll see. A lot of this is driven by the reporting. More news cycles, more coverage, more votes. People decide on their votes irrationally.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Because he said the police have free speech rights? He clearly didn’t agree with the shirts. But don’t let that stop you on your crusade.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Kepler said:
Again, we'll see. A lot of this is driven by the reporting. More news cycles, more coverage, more votes. People decide on their votes irrationally.
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I don’t disagree. They could easily be factoring in frontrunnerism to their model. People like voting for who they think will win, not necessarily who they agree the most with.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

trixR4kids said:
A lot of people who get into Harvard have professionals write their entry papers and have had tutors their whole lives helping them do and say all the right things to get into Harvard. I’m sure they’re of above average intelligence for the most part but that’s also partly because of all the advantages they had growing up. With Pete we’re talking about a guy who defended his police wearing t-shirts that said, “breathe easy don’t break the law” right around the time of Eric Garner’s death with a “both sides” argument that Rube would make. I suppose you could still be “smart” or not “mediocre” and make that argument but that’s not the most intelligent thing anyone has ever done
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Having met my share of these people they divide into three groups: rich idiots who drool on themselves but daddy bought a wing, conveyor belt kids who have been groomed for this by domineering helicopter parents since they popped outta the womb, and kids who really are in the top 1% in intelligence. The percentages vary. At Harvard or Stanford you'll see 30/50/20. At a cough "lesser" Ivy it's more like 10/40/50. At MIT it approaches 1/1/98.

My impression is Buttigieg straddles the line between groups II and III. He's a faculty brat, so he had advantages but he was also acculturated to appreciate learning for its own sake. He's not some businessman's son polishing apples just to get the Big Promotion.

Now, don't get me wrong. He's a politician so he's a vampire sociopath. But I think he has a brain, too, and that beats the sh-t we have now.
 
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Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

dxmnkd316 said:
I don’t disagree. They could easily be factoring in frontrunnerism to their model. People like voting for who they think will win, not necessarily who they agree the most with.
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Not just frontrunnerism but also just awareness. We would be amazed at the space between the ears of the average voter. Imagine not knowing anything substantive about politics. Nothing. Only knowing personalities like it was a celebrity red carpet. Well, that's half the electorate. They have no ideology. They follow this like the Olympics, every four years.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Half? You’re feeling mighty generous today.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Because he said the police have free speech rights? He clearly didn’t agree with the shirts. But don’t let that stop you on your crusade.
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Yeah it’s almost like using the guise of free speech and gobbledygook bothsideisms to defend your cops racism isn’t a good look! Who knew!?
 
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Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

dxmnkd316 said:
Half? You’re feeling mighty generous today.
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The older I get the more I am impressed that the dummies truly are dumb, but also that about half the population could, if their life depended upon it, think their way out of a low difficulty escape room.
 
Kepler said:
538 just flip-flopped Sanders and Biden in their model. Huh. It's happening. In all honesty I never imagined the US would grow up in my lifetime.
Click to expand...

As far as I understand it, the only reason Biden's been polling as well as he has is name recognition. His campaigning has been lackluster, his ability to outline a message and a reason to vote for him, the same, his debate performances weak, and not really inspiring a huge number of people that he's the one.

Now that the rubber is actually hitting the road, we may be seeing the results of all that.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

dxmnkd316 said:
You didn’t even read what he said.
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Buttigieg asserted that the two sides of the controversy were really not that divided after all. “They’re being portrayed like they’re on two different sides, but they’re not even talking about the same thing,” he explained. “We’re talking about two different things. And one of those is the way that race is playing a role in our criminal justice system. And the other is about the safety of police officers who go out there every day and risk their lives. And I fear that we’re being led down this path that you have to choose between being pro-minority/pro-equal rights and pro-police.”
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That's... not a good response to your cops being racist. Also we know about his other actions re SBPD.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

rufus said:
As far as I understand it, the only reason Biden's been polling as well as he has is name recognition. His campaigning has been lackluster, his ability to outline a message and a reason to vote for him, the same, his debate performances weak, and not really inspiring a huge number of people that he's the one.

Now that the rubber is actually hitting the road, we may be seeing the results of all that.
Click to expand...

Honestly, I think it’s the ground game. Pete and very likely Bernie’s ground games are phenomenal. I’m guessing Bloomberg has an amazing one as well.

Pete’s campaign knew the results before the IDP did. They had a plan with their precinct captains and executed. Bernie has that grassroots game that’s been refined and hardened over four years. It’s cult-like, and I say that as a compliment for the first time ever.

The reason I want Pete over Bernie is because Bernie isn’t going to build a coalition and get things done. He’ll sit, pout, and b—tch if he doesn’t get it his way. The reason his legislative record is as empty as Trump’s head.

Pete came out of nowhere in a couple years. Obama did the same thing (better). Pete is far more likely to steamroll Mitch than Bernie. He might even outlive him. Bernie is the brute force method, which only works if you have 50%+1. If you don’t have a plan and a strategy you’re going to get literally nothing. I’d rather get something than nothing.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

the reason i want pete over bernie is because bernie isn’t going to build a coalition and get things done
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hahahahahhaa

It's literally the opposite, one of these candidates is building an actual movement and momentum that will continue once in office. The other has mostly the support of rich people that will go back to brunch. Also if you seriously want him over Bernie then you pretty obviously don't care about climate change, wealth inequality, or even beating Trump in the first place because he pretty obviously won't.
 
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Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

I mean I edited it but someone who actually thinks Pete is going to beat Trump or do anything worthwhile to stop future Trumps from being elected is completely delusional and not worth responding to seriously. Not to mention what I quoted is laugh track worthy.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

As I said, lackluster campaign. Not sure Joe really understands how to build a juggernaut in this day and age.

I'm not thrilled with Pete. Too white bread for me, but if he's the nominee, I'm behind him all the way. Especially if he picks Lizzie as his running mate. But I doubt if she's the best choice politically.
 
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