What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

Having a conference with a less-than-stellar winning percentage in NC games reduces your OWP. Your conference opponents will have a winning percentage of exactly 0.500 for conference games. Your OWP from you conference opponents is determined by how they did in NC games.
 
Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

And what I think jerry is saying is if the ECAC West does very poorly out of conference, they will have a harder time getting teams into the NCAA. Remember, there is no automatic bid for the ECAC West, so they have to rely on the various criteria for a Pool C bid. Having a "weak" conference hurts that.

Having a conference with a less-than-stellar winning percentage in NC games reduces your OWP. Your conference opponents will have a winning percentage of exactly 0.500 for conference games. Your OWP from you conference opponents is determined by how they did in NC games.

Yes, guys, I follow you... But thanks!

Allow me to reiterate: my point was that while the '12-'13 W appears to be weak enough for an unusually good Utica team to win more intra-conference games than is historically typical, the league's overall OOC record is still way beyond respectable at 29-12-4. (This is somewhat less gaudy than we are used to seeing, but it's still fairly impressive.)

I've only followed D-3 for 12 years, but I'd be willing to off-handedly bet a buck or two that for 99.9-100% of that span, the ECAC-W hasn't had a losing OOC record, and in the vast majority of those years, it posted the best OOC winning % of any conference in the nation. This trend appears to be ongoing, even if it's concurrently weakening, thanks to #$^% Elmira!!!

I don't see any reason for concern here regarding Utica's SOS -even during a relatively "off" year for the W- within the context of any reasonable metric. I'm quite sure that it'll will sort itself out just fine. (A cursory look at any of the top-five teams in Prof's rankings reveals that none of them have played any tougher a schedule than UC, if they've even come close to it.)
 
Last edited:
Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

Fishman'81 said:

I don't see any reason for concern here regarding Utica's SOS -even during a relatively "off" year for the W- within the context of any reasonable metric. I'm quite sure that it'll will sort itself out just fine. (A cursory look at any of the top-five teams in Prof's rankings reveals that none of them have played any tougher a schedule than UC, if they've even come close to it.)
Click to expand...


Utica's OWP is 33rd in the nation - very middle of the road. Their OOWP is better at 11th, and the NCAA metric combines those two. Utica really needs to beat Oswego today, because of the perverse fact that as far as the NCAA is concerned a loss to a ranked team hurts you a lot more than a loss to an unranked team. (Of course ranked is according to the NCAA, not according to USCHO or d3hockey.com)
 
Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

NUProf said:
Utica's OWP is 33rd in the nation - very middle of the road. Their OOWP is better at 11th, and the NCAA metric combines those two. Utica really needs to beat Oswego today, because of the perverse fact that as far as the NCAA is concerned a loss to a ranked team hurts you a lot more than a loss to an unranked team. (Of course ranked is according to the NCAA, not according to USCHO or d3hockey.com)
Click to expand...

I could say a lot of things here, but I won't be snide tonight.

I enjoy discussing this topic, and I appreciate the fact that Prof makes the effort to put together a (putatively) objective ranking-system for D-3. It's certainly fun stuff to debate, and nobody has any definitive answers here, after all.

However, I will say is this: if this past weekend's results don't churn the Prof's rankings like a Cuisinart set on "puree", he's lost me... There is certainly no "obvious" #1 anymore, if there indeed was such an entity on Friday last.

(No, I don't think that team existed then, either, but I'm very curious to see how things have shaken-out in Prof's rankings.)
 
Last edited:
Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

Fishman'81 said:
I could say a lot of things here, but I won't be snide tonight.

I enjoy discussing this topic, and I appreciate the fact that Prof makes the effort to put together a (putatively) objective ranking-system for D-3. It's certainly fun stuff to debate, and nobody has any definitive answers here, after all.

However, I will say is this: if this past weekend's results don't churn the Prof's rankings like a Cuisinart set on "puree", he's lost me... There is certainly no "obvious" #1 anymore, if there indeed was such an entity on Friday last.

(No, I don't think that team existed then, either, but I'm very curious to see how things have shaken-out in Prof's rankings.)
Click to expand...

Norwich holds on, but the margin is not statistically significant. For more info you can look "elsewhere" :D Tuesday or Wednesday
 
Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

Just getting the opportunity to play in March without the gift of an AQ is pretty-much what this discussion boils-down to... And the mere size of a D-3 conference seems to be a poor measure of its worth in that regard.
 
Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

NUProf said:
Norwich holds on, but the margin is not statistically significant. For more info you can look "elsewhere" :D Tuesday or Wednesday
Click to expand...

Oh, I look everywhere for a little fun on a slow night after work in the winter!

Honestly, I have grown fond of looking for your D-3 calculus, even if I don't think it works very well right now. The effort you put forth in concocting your rankings provides a lot of entertainment value to many of us, if only as a reason to bicker about silly points of fact and opinion.

I think I speak for a lot of hockey fans when I say that we all appreciate what you do, whether we agree with your assessments, or not.
 
Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

I sure hope Utica doesn't pack it in early again this season because they've wasted so much energy worrying about meaningless mid season rankings. That's just a fan thing, right?
 
Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

I think this Utica beating Oswego thing is great, the boards have never been so busy (at least not since I've been here) I'll miss all this great hockey come April
 
Fishman'81 said:
Oh, I look everywhere for a little fun on a slow night after work in the winter!

Honestly, I have grown fond of looking for your D-3 calculus, even if I don't think it works very well right now. The effort you put forth in concocting your rankings provides a lot of entertainment value to many of us, if only as a reason to bicker about silly points of fact and opinion.

I think I speak for a lot of hockey fans when I say that we all appreciate what you do, whether we agree with your assessments, or not.
Click to expand...

That is the whole idea. By the way, there was a mistake in what I posted before.
 
Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

NUProf said:
That is the whole idea. By the way, there was a mistake in what I posted before.
Click to expand...

So either NRW is #1 by a statistically-significant margin, or someone else (Hobart?) is #1 by a statistically-insignificant margin... so which is it? :D
 
Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh said:
So either NRW is #1 by a statistically-significant margin, or someone else (Hobart?) is #1 by a statistically-insignificant margin... so which is it? :D
Click to expand...

You will have to find out ... I'm not going to scoop my own story...that I am currently writing
 
Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

Without even looking, I'm going to go out on a limb and guess who's still #1! :p

I agree more with the KRACH in this instance than I do with any other publicly-published measure. (No, Bowdoin hasn't played anyone, but being undefeated affords it the benefit of the doubt, as Norwich had enjoyed until recently.)

In the case of the latter, there is a speck of common-opponent info to be gleaned, even if some of it is once-removed. Furthermore, there are some fairly compelling SOS factors to consider, as well... Ergo, I'd have my East rankings topped by Hobart, followed by Utica/Bowdoin, then Norwich and Oswego.

The relationship between Oswego and the ECAC-W has been the straw that stirs the drink in this libation. The fearlessness with which they all schedule OOC games, even on the road (!), sets them apart from all other programs in the East, and gives us all some meaningful fodder to chew-upon when discussing the above.
 
Last edited:
Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

Fishman'81 said:
(No, Bowdoin hasn't played anyone, but being undefeated affords it the benefit of the doubt, as Norwich had enjoyed until recently.).
Click to expand...

Their OOC schedule definitely needs work, and a down year for USM isn't helping, but is the NESCAC really that bad? So much that you can say they haven't played anyone? After hosting Trinity and Wesleyan this weekend they will have played every team in the conference.
 
Re: D3hockey.com Computer Rankings 12/12

I don't know... (And as a native Mainer, I tend to pull for Bowdoin, just so you know.)

Still, I have my doubts about the conference.

I've seen Amherst this season, and wasn't impressed. M'bury is apparently a pack-team this year, and if Williams is going to be a factor on a national basis, then it must be greatly-improved over what I've seen over the past few seasons. The rest of the NESCAC really doesn't merit any mention here, at this juncture.

None of the above necessarily reflects poorly on the Polar Bears- they can only play who they have on their schedule- but they'd have a much better case if they had a win or two vs. a tough OOC foe (eg. an upper-tier team from the SUNYAC or the ECAC-W, or a Norwich) at some point.

Bowdoin has been taking care of business thus far, and if they continue to do so, an NCAA bid certainly awaits... Guess we'll see what happens at that time, and I wish them luck. I would love to see them take home the hardware this year, if my guys can't/don't.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top