Covid 19

[ticapnews]

Re: Covid 19

The currently best understood fatality rate is on par with Spanish Flu. I can’t quite remember how that turned out.

The Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of about 3% and caused 20-40 million deaths worldwide. At least double the number of soldiers killed in World War I.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: Covid 19

The Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of about 3% and caused 20-40 million deaths worldwide. At least double the number of soldiers killed in World War I.

Recently, someone did a very interesting study on the timing of the end of WWI and how that caused the Spanish Flu to spread. In the study, it said had the war lasted one year longer, overall it would have saved lives because way less people would have died from the flu, even if more people died from the extra year of the war.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covid 19

Do you live in Minnesota?

D-mn it I would have bet this was going to be a NoDak joke.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Covid 19

D-mn it I would have bet this was going to be a NoDak joke.

Lol. I’m just hoping he’s not from Minnesota.

 

[J.D.]

Re: Covid 19

You can't look at a flat death rate. You need to take into consideration death rate based on age and death rate based on having other complications when communicating the message to the public on who is most at risk, etc. A flat death rate is a worthless stat.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covid 19

Lol. I’m just hoping he’s not from Minnesota.

Boy did I read your OP wrong.

 

[leswp1]

Re: Covid 19

I know I'm going to get pilloried (at least from some quarters) for what I'm about to post but I'm going to post it anyway. But first some disclaimers--

1) I am not an epidemiologist or medical analytics wonk. (And AFAIK, nobody else on this board is either)
2) I'm north of 70yo. (And will get even further north of that in a matter of days.)

That being said--
--I get it that there's a new strain of virus in the wild and that it spreads easily
--From what I've been able to digest, the effects are mild to moderate and run their course in a week to ten days
--The fatality rate is relatively low compared with other outbreaks and affect primarily people in my own age range, especially those with pre-existing respiratory or immune issues
--I live in a big city and continue to move about freely; I went to a college basketball game last night and sat in the midst of other humanoids; I'm observing that the restaurants and bars remain relatively crowded (and I've been a part of some of those crowds); ditto for the buses and subway trains.
--I have not been struck down, nor do I expect to be (at least not from Coronawhatever). Maybe I'm living on the edge and it will yet get me. (If so, I'll put in a good word for everyone here once I get to the other side.) But I refuse to stop daily living.
--Oh, and I do wash my hands multiple times a day. But I've been doing that since I was a little kid.

Summary (personal opinions only): Yes, something's happening out there, yes, we should be concerned, and yes, we should be developing and implementing countermeasures with all due haste. But what we should NOT be doing is whipping ourselves into an ever accelerating, self-perpetuating fear frenzy. To try and put this into some personal perspective, COVID-19, at least so far, doesn't even begin to compare with other scary outbreaks that have occurred in my life experience. So let's get a grip. This is not the Black Plague. We will not be having Tyvek-suited people pushing carts through the streets and calling, "Bring Out Your Dead!"

To loosely paraphrase Franklin D. Roosevelt, it's time we stopped fearing fear.

Not an actual expert but recently retired from medicine and have to disabuse you of some of your assumptions-
-the strain of virus is new- that means there is no herd immunity or known way to get someone immunity
-the effects are mild to moderate for a percentage of people. Those who get sicker are more acutely ill and the period of acute illness lasts much longer than the usual flu. If you get very ill with flu avg of 7 days before you are not critical, this 14 days.
-fatality rate is affected by not just pre-existing conditions/age but the state of the healthcare system. Wuhan had way more deaths because they were overwhelmed and unable to care for all those who were ill. Our current system is running at about 95-97% capacity for many areas due to flu. Those who are ill with COVID19 need respiratory support. They needed it approx twice as long as usual for flu- that means if they need a respirator the turnaround is slow and the number of respirators not enough. (Washington has requested backups and the gov't sent less than requested).
-The comparison of this to flu is a false comparison. We have some herd immunity to flu- some strains people have had previous exposure to similar strains, people are immunized, even if the vaccine is not completely on point it conveys some protection. If you weren't smart enough to be immunized but those around you were then you are somewhat protected. The immunized are less likely to get ill. If they do get ill they are less likely to shed large amounts of virus to get you sick. We have no idea what would happen if we didn't have the firewall of vaccine for flu. (one person recently pointed this might be similar to when indigenous populations were exposed to European illnesses)
- another factoid- they are finding people test positive and may shed virus up to 8 weeks after testing positive for the first time. That means folks who are asymptomatic may be vectors for a very, very long time. They may look fine but be the equivalent to Typhoid Mary. Taking their temperature at the airport or getting on a ship is going to yield nothing.

Does this mean we have to go into an all out panic? No. But it does mean the only way we are going to contain spread is to decrease contact with the virus.

 

[manurespreader]

Re: Covid 19

Not an actual expert but recently retired from medicine and have to disabuse you of some of your assumptions-
-the strain of virus is new- that means there is no herd immunity or known way to get someone immunity
-the effects are mild to moderate for a percentage of people. Those who get sicker are more acutely ill and the period of acute illness lasts much longer than the usual flu. If you get very ill with flu avg of 7 days before you are not critical, this 14 days.
-fatality rate is affected by not just pre-existing conditions/age but the state of the healthcare system. Wuhan had way more deaths because they were overwhelmed and unable to care for all those who were ill. Our current system is running at about 95-97% capacity for many areas due to flu. Those who are ill with COVID19 need respiratory support. They needed it approx twice as long as usual for flu- that means if they need a respirator the turnaround is slow and the number of respirators not enough. (Washington has requested backups and the gov't sent less than requested).
-The comparison of this to flu is a false comparison. We have some herd immunity to flu- some strains people have had previous exposure to similar strains, people are immunized, even if the vaccine is not completely on point it conveys some protection. If you weren't smart enough to be immunized but those around you were then you are somewhat protected. The immunized are less likely to get ill. If they do get ill they are less likely to shed large amounts of virus to get you sick. We have no idea what would happen if we didn't have the firewall of vaccine for flu. (one person recently pointed this might be similar to when indigenous populations were exposed to European illnesses)
- another factoid- they are finding people test positive and may shed virus up to 8 weeks after testing positive for the first time. That means folks who are asymptomatic may be vectors for a very, very long time. They may look fine but be the equivalent to Typhoid Mary. Taking their temperature at the airport or getting on a ship is going to yield nothing.

Does this mean we have to go into an all out panic? No. But it does mean the only way we are going to contain spread is to decrease contact with the virus.

Spoil sport!

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Covid 19

Coachella rescheduled until October. The Librul Media Hoax continues.

 

[Sean Pickett]

Re: Covid 19

You can't look at a flat death rate. You need to take into consideration death rate based on age and death rate based on having other complications when communicating the message to the public on who is most at risk, etc. A flat death rate is a worthless stat.

True, but from what I have read so far the coronavirus is affecting those with respiratory illnesses and older people the hardest. According to Wikipedia the Spanish Flu hit young adults, 20-40, and especially pregnant women, the hardest (my great-uncle, age 25, died of it in Liverpool in Oct 1918).

As for whether or not banning large gatherings, travel, remote learning, etc., is good or bad we may never know. If the number of cases doesn't explode some of those who say it was an over-reaction will use the lack of a pandemic as 'proof' there was no need for such measures. Here in Massachusetts the number of suspected cases linked to the Biogen conference continues to grow rapidly. That was one meeting and shows how fast this virus can spread.

Sean

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Covid 19

True, but from what I have read so far the coronavirus is affecting those with respiratory illnesses and older people the hardest. According to Wikipedia the Spanish Flu hit young adults, 20-40, and especially pregnant women, the hardest (my great-uncle, age 25, died of it in Liverpool in Oct 1918).

And...? What are you trying to say?

As for whether or not banning large gatherings, travel, remote learning, etc., is good or bad we may never know. If the number of cases doesn't explode some of those who say it was an over-reaction will use the lack of a pandemic as 'proof' there was no need for such measures. Here in Massachusetts the number of suspected cases linked to the Biogen conference continues to grow rapidly. That was one meeting and shows how fast this virus can spread.

Fair enough. But I'd hate to say it wasn't necessary and be wrong. That sounds like a fairly big risk. I think you'd agree.

The Y2K bug never panned out and people still ***** about the "overreaction". It didn't pan out because of the millions of hours spent making sure it didn't happen. I'd rather have a few dotards complain about an overreaction than have 20% of those over 70 killed.

 

[leswp1]

Re: Covid 19

Spoil sport!

sOrry. SOrry! It is all a hoax. that was a joke. bUt in case you need me to be incohrent the hoax virus that the libruls have manufactured. they are so ef fing smart thaty convinced whole countries to shut down and various people ind their population to pretend to be sick or dead. aaaaand- they hoaxeded the stock mahket to crash until the dump said he would print more money to cover the tax breaks. (side question- when do they stop letting him play with the printing presses? when they run out of green ink?)

 

[leswp1]

Re: Covid 19

True, but from what I have read so far the coronavirus is affecting those with respiratory illnesses and older people the hardest. According to Wikipedia the Spanish Flu hit young adults, 20-40, and especially pregnant women, the hardest (my great-uncle, age 25, died of it in Liverpool in Oct 1918).

As for whether or not banning large gatherings, travel, remote learning, etc., is good or bad we may never know. If the number of cases doesn't explode some of those who say it was an over-reaction will use the lack of a pandemic as 'proof' there was no need for such measures. Here in Massachusetts the number of suspected cases linked to the Biogen conference continues to grow rapidly. That was one meeting and shows how fast this virus can spread.

Sean

Cases as of last Thursday- <5
Cases as of today-92

Cases that were from Cogen 70
Travel 4
Under investigation 18.

Presser with the Governor and Public Health- there are a number that appear to have no identifiable contact (I forget the exact# but it wasn't 1or 2)

 

[TheRevengeance]

Not an actual expert but recently retired from medicine and have to disabuse you of some of your assumptions-
-the strain of virus is new- that means there is no herd immunity or known way to get someone immunity
-the effects are mild to moderate for a percentage of people. Those who get sicker are more acutely ill and the period of acute illness lasts much longer than the usual flu. If you get very ill with flu avg of 7 days before you are not critical, this 14 days.
-fatality rate is affected by not just pre-existing conditions/age but the state of the healthcare system. Wuhan had way more deaths because they were overwhelmed and unable to care for all those who were ill. Our current system is running at about 95-97% capacity for many areas due to flu. Those who are ill with COVID19 need respiratory support. They needed it approx twice as long as usual for flu- that means if they need a respirator the turnaround is slow and the number of respirators not enough. (Washington has requested backups and the gov't sent less than requested).
-The comparison of this to flu is a false comparison. We have some herd immunity to flu- some strains people have had previous exposure to similar strains, people are immunized, even if the vaccine is not completely on point it conveys some protection. If you weren't smart enough to be immunized but those around you were then you are somewhat protected. The immunized are less likely to get ill. If they do get ill they are less likely to shed large amounts of virus to get you sick. We have no idea what would happen if we didn't have the firewall of vaccine for flu. (one person recently pointed this might be similar to when indigenous populations were exposed to European illnesses)
- another factoid- they are finding people test positive and may shed virus up to 8 weeks after testing positive for the first time. That means folks who are asymptomatic may be vectors for a very, very long time. They may look fine but be the equivalent to Typhoid Mary. Taking their temperature at the airport or getting on a ship is going to yield nothing.

Does this mean we have to go into an all out panic? No. But it does mean the only way we are going to contain spread is to decrease contact with the virus.

Thank you.

 

[chickod]

Re: Covid 19

Cases as of last Thursday- <5
Cases as of today-92

Cases that were from Cogen 70
Travel 4
Under investigation 18.

Presser with the Governor and Public Health- there are a number that appear to have no identifiable contact (I forget the exact# but it wasn't 1or 2)

Deaths from influenza in US in 2019 - 20,000

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Covid 19

Deaths from influenza in US in 2019 - 20,000

And what does that have to do with the price of hand sanitizer in china?

 

[leswp1]

Re: Covid 19

Deaths from influenza in US in 2019 - 20,000

And what does that have to do with the price of hand sanitizer in china?

It has to do with a poorly managed public health system. and of course a lack of reading comprehension of the last post saying why it was irrelevant. Of course we could invite the people who aren't impressed to participate in research studies testing severity....

 

[TheRevengeance]

Deaths from influenza in US in 2019 - 20,000

~0.1% of the population that contracts the flu dies of it among the millions that get it, despite there being a vaccine readily available that at very worst helps make symptoms milder. In spite of the yearly work and preparation that goes into it, our hospitals are over 90% capacity from the people currently hospitalized for it.

Over 3% of the population that has contracted this new virus has died, a virus we have no immunizations for and no way to mitigate. It spreads at a similar, if not higher, contagion level than the flu. It causes hospitalization and the need for ventilators, even amongst young people, at at least 3 times the rate the flu does. The measures being taken are to prevent it from spreading to millions of people in short order, completely overwhelming the available hospital system and resulting in patients who could otherwise be saved dying from lack of resources. If everyone gets it at once, the 20% of people who need hospitalization but otherwise recover will become 20% who die from lack of resources available. The point here is to reduce cases where it could spread massively and to make sure the growth stays manageable for our society to handle everybody with the care they need. 1 million people getting it today vs one million people getting it this year are vastly different prospects.

And even if you believe all the verifiable numbers I just posted are wrong and it's just a cold, what's the worst that could happen? We accidentally stopped you from going to a game in person and made you watch it on TV instead for no reason? Taking the risk of spreading a pandemic so a couple of thousand people can see a game they would have seen on TV anyway is clearly a worse scenario than forcing people to watch the game on TV when it wasn't necessary.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Covid 19

~0.1% of the population that contracts the flu dies of it among the millions that get it, despite there being a vaccine readily available that at very worst helps make symptoms milder. In spite of the yearly work and preparation that goes into it, our hospitals are over 90% capacity from the people currently hospitalized for it.

Over 3% of the population that has contracted this new virus has died, a virus we have no immunizations for and no way to mitigate. It spreads at a similar, if not higher, contagion level than the flu. It causes hospitalization and the need for ventilators, even amongst young people, at at least 3 times the rate the flu does. The measures being taken are to prevent it from spreading to millions of people in short order, completely overwhelming the available hospital system and resulting in patients who could otherwise be saved dying from lack of resources. If everyone gets it at once, the 20% of people who need hospitalization but otherwise recover will become 20% who die from lack of resources available. The point here is to reduce cases where it could spread massively and to make sure the growth stays manageable for our society to handle everybody with the care they need. 1 million people getting it today vs one million people getting it this year are vastly different prospects.

And even if you believe all the verifiable numbers I just posted are wrong and it's just a cold, what's the worst that could happen? We accidentally stopped you from going to a game in person and made you watch it on TV instead for no reason? Taking the risk of spreading a pandemic so a couple of thousand people can see a game they would have seen on TV anyway is clearly a worse scenario than forcing people to watch the game on TV when it wasn't necessary.

THis is a great post.

 

[leswp1]

Re: Covid 19

THis is a great post.

Yes it is!