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COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

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dxmnkd316 said:
Jeebus. I lucked into that.

In case you thought I was actually smart.

Edit: To my credit, as soon as you made your post, I remembered the difference. I just haven't been using Gaussian over normal intentionally. I've just always called them Gaussian. Maybe I picked that up in stats courses back in high school and college.


Edit 2: More interesting resources and tools:
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
http://kestrel.nmt.edu/~rsonnenf/corona/corona_control.html
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I did one google search and what’s funny is that Imperial College labels them “normal/Gaussian” and uses them interchangeably. I wonder if that’s why my grad text just used normal
 
Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

jflory81 said:
In terms of the national side of things, I think it's mostly because different states have different peaks, and their national prediction is just an amalgamation of their states' models. This is true for a least a couple of the European countries' models as well - replacing states for regions, obviously.

As to why they continue to stick with a mostly Gaussian projection I really do have to wonder if they were leaned on to make things look a little rosier a month or two from now by the administration - perhaps in return for being the Federal model. It's important to note that one of their assumptions is "full social distancing" and even in NY I wouldn't call what we're doing "full" with all the exceptions for "essential businesses" like fast food and such (and this isn't even taking into account idiots like those participating in that Michigan protest). I could see a Gaussian model making sense if you completely removed all possible areas of re-infection and transmittance, but obviously that's not possible in the real world. It could be a technically accurate model, it's just that we don't have the ability to fulfill their assumptions that make the model look a little rosier than most people expect.
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See, I'm not sure I buy into that last paragraph. I don't think they'd risk their reputation on it by cynically sucking off the white house. Though, I think they're causing quite a bit of damage to their reputation by using what seem to be ill-suited models. Ones that don't really make sense when trying to predict epidemics. It would be like developing a model for a nation and then using it to model state-wide outbreaks. It just doesn't work that way. If you can wade through the derpy Federalist posts, others comments on the pre-print of their model are questioning their methodology intelligently. Link

And maybe it's not so much saying their model is bad, but people are using the model to make decisions on question it was never intended to answer. The model really needs to stop trying to be an omniscient oracle for all questions and start asking it to perform more simplified analyses asking just one or two questions. Not trying to predict everything across the world and answer all questions about infection speed, resource scarcity, can we restart the economy, does social distancing work, etc.

It's almost guaranteed their model was originally designed to answer one question but it's been frankensteined into something it wasn't intended for and now we're asking it to predict things that are based on extraordinarily complex variables. Does the model take into account terminal stupidity and the mobility of said stupidity? Probably not. Michigan's model can probably just be set on fire for the next two weeks.

Anyways, we're learning a lot about pandemic modeling this month and unfortunately it's mostly paid for by people dying.

Edit: The thing that bothers me the most is that they're not open-sourcing their model. Just put it out there. My god, even Hilton DoubleTree published their cookie recipes. Let's see the secret sauce and make it better.
 
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Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

dxmnkd316 said:
See, I'm not sure I buy into that last paragraph. I don't think they'd risk their reputation on it by cynically sucking off the white house. Though, I think they're causing quite a bit of damage to their reputation by using what seem to be ill-suited models. Ones that don't really make sense when trying to predict epidemics. It would be like developing a model for a nation and then using it to model state-wide outbreaks. It just doesn't work that way. If you can wade through the derpy Federalist posts, others comments on the pre-print of their model are questioning their methodology. Link

And maybe it's not so much saying their model is bad, but people are using the model to make decisions on question it was never intended to answer. The model really needs to stop trying to be an omniscient oracle for all questions and start asking it to perform more simplified analyses asking just one or two questions. Not trying to predict everything across the world and answer all questions about infection speed, resource scarcity, can we restart the economy, does social distancing work, etc.

It's almost guaranteed their model was originally designed to answer one question but it's been frankensteined into something it wasn't intended for and now we're asking it to predict things that are based on extraordinarily complex variables. Does the model take into account terminal stupidity and the mobility of said stupidity? Probably not. Michigan's model can probably just be set on fire for the next two weeks.

Anyways, we're learning a lot about pandemic modeling this month and unfortunately it's mostly paid for by people dying.
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That's fair. I did only say it made me wonder ;-)

Ultimately if things open up before the end of May you've contradicted one of the model's assumptions, so you might as well throw it out the window at that point anyway.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
From
That same account ...


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jesus, they are frightened. <a href="https://t.co/BdNnhTpCoF">https://t.co/BdNnhTpCoF</a></p>— Schooley (@Rschooley) <a href="https://twitter.com/Rschooley/status/1250511412180316161?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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State judge overruled him. You can vote by mail if you fear the virus...for now. Paxton will appeal.
 
Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

Lot of extremely selfish people in the world today. It's all about them. And Donnie plays right into that.
 
Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

RaceBoarder said:
If there is a higher power who truly believes in good, that video will be turned over to the proper authorities and the perps will be IDed by plate #'s and properly cited.
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According to the comments it has been turned over to the ELPD (this is the main street in East Lansing which forks onto the street leading to the capital). I don't know how clear it is to pick up plates, though.
 
Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

Spartanforlife4 said:
According to the comments it has been turned over to the ELPD (this is the main street in East Lansing which forks onto the street leading to the capital). I don't know how clear it is to pick up plates, though.
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Yea, I know that ZOOM & ENHANCE only works on TV and in Movies, but one can hope...
 
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