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COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

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Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

geezer said:
This is interesting; March deaths in MI are down overall from an average 8,000 to 5,000 - car wrecks down 50%, crime down 25% last month under shutdown.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/n...down-in-march-despite-coronavirus/5120360002/
(Note that the virus didn’t really gear up in MI until April, but the shutdown effects are interesting)
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I've been curious to see these stats when they start to roll in. I assume it's going to be some dramatic drops across the nation.

Well, except for here in Chicago...
 
Kepler said:
Wow. I did not know that. I do not care for it (though I'm not at all surprised).

It doesn't have my European trips.
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It depends on allowing google maps to always know your location and allowing it to keep a history. Mine doesn’t show anything because I have most of the settings turned off in google maps on iPhone. It pretty much only has access to my location data while I’m navigating and I have the location history turned off. If you use google photos it can pull geo tags from uploaded photos, which you can also turn off.

Knowing google you probably have to opt out of most of this stuff and it’s probably on by default.
 
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Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

SJHovey said:
The money goes to employees who would otherwise be on unemployment. It includes full benefits. You prefer they remain on unemployment?
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Why don't you pay them, instead of relying on the Socialist government? Bootstraps!!!!

Unemployment, this program, what's the difference? it's still socialist money from the government.
 
Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

A friend of mine in North Carolina shared her State Representatives's Facebook post.

Some key takeaways:
“Hey Jeff, you know we can't stay home forever, right?”
Let’s talk about how North Carolina gets back to work.
And let’s skip the obvious stuff - like hand-washing and staying home if we’re sick.
To fully reopen, we’re going to need to know four things: Who’s sick, who’s not, who’s been sick, and who hasn’t.
That’s the information that will let us track and control future localized outbreaks (which are inevitable) without requiring wide-scale shutdowns.
It will also give the public confidence that it’s safe to become customers - not just employees - of restaurants, theaters, barber shops, airlines, hotels, sports arenas, food trucks, colleges and universities.
Having this information early is how South Korea was able to demolish the infection curve and reopen society much faster than any other country. And the way they got there was early, widespread testing - followed by aggressive contact tracing and isolation.
We missed the opportunity to get ahold of this on the front-end because we didn’t have that kind of widespread testing, and we didn’t have it for three reasons: a lack of test kits, a lack of related chemicals needed to use the test kits, and a lack of PPE needed to administer the tests.
But we can’t just call that a failure a move on. We actually have to solve the problem, only now it’s much bigger because the universe of those who are potentially infected has grown by several orders of magnitude.
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Molecular testing said:
Our state has received three shipments from the National Strategic Stockpile totaling roughly 33% of our requested supply. Now the stockpile is nearly depleted and we’ve been told there will not be another shipment. In search for more, our state emergency management agency has submitted $125 million worth of bids on PPE to private manufacturers across the country but only a small fraction of those bids has been accepted. As has been widely reported, we are competing against other states and other hospital systems, and the competition is fierce. In better news, we have several manufacturers in North Carolina which have switched production to PPE for use by our front-line workers, so we hope that will help meet a growing share of the need.
That brings us to the molecular test kits (and related chemical supplies) themselves. We’ve seen a dramatic increase in private lab testing capacity in the last few weeks. But we’ve also seen real innovation. Most prominently, Abbott Labs now has a machine which will give a result in 15 minutes. It got FDA approval about ten days ago and is now probably the most in-demand medical device on earth.
Abbott says they can only make 400 of these machines per week for the foreseeable future. The federal government is in charge of allocating them to states. So far, most states - like North Carolina - have received 15 machines.
Let’s do some quick math. Over the next six weeks, Abbott should be able to make 2,400 of these machines. North Carolina has roughly 3% of the national population, so let’s say we get 3% of the machines (big assumption). That means we might get another 70 machines within the next six weeks, for a total of 85 machines. 85 machines working 24/7 at a rate of roughly 4 tests per hour = roughly 8,000 tests per day.
We tested 5,000 yesterday, so that would be a big jump for us. Even those assumptions are off by 25%, it would still double our current testing capacity. So getting more Abbott machines won't be the whole solution for us, but it’ll be a big piece.
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Anti-body testing said:
Here’s how: You would do widespread, random testing of the population to screen for antibodies that would indicate whether the virus had already been there and had been successfully fought off.
But in European cities that have been hit reasonably hard by COVID, random antibody testing hasn’t shown the type of widespread infection the theory posed - which frankly makes sense, given how new the virus itself is.
But there remains a case to make for the widespread use of antibody testing. Different companies report different rates of accuracy, but most report that their antibody tests can detect COVID over 90% of the time. The tests are at the lower end of the accuracy range in the early days of infection, before the body has had time to build up enough antibodies to register with the test. But any COVID test with an accuracy rate above 90% - when the alternative may be no test at all - has to be seriously considered.
And while there is probably no chance that widespread, asymptomatic infection has already occurred, antibody testing at random across the state - or in certain vulnerable communities - might be helpful in identifying hot spots and letting us know where to focus our supply of molecular tests.
A notable concern is that antibody tests are more likely to error on the side of a false negative than a false positive. A false negative is worse, from a public health standpoint, than a false positive. The last thing we want is to tell someone they’re not infected and send them back into public only to find out later that they really were infected. Minimizing the risk of false negatives with antibody tests is an important piece of adopting them into regular use. (Note: A similar concern of false negatives also pertains to the Abbott test.)
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Most Important: There is a set of overwhelming incentives on the part of virtually everyone - state officials, politicians, business leaders, students, parents, workers - to reopen without causing a resurgence. Everyone is working toward the same goal. When that happens in our country - and it’s very, very rare - we tend to accomplish much more than we thought we could at the start.
More updates soon,
Sen. Jeff Jackson
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I feel that some Midwestern representatives need to see this (glares at Michigan GOP)...
 
Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

BassAle said:
It depends on allowing google maps to always know your location and allowing it to keep a history. Mine doesn’t show anything because I have most of the settings turned off in google maps on iPhone. It pretty much only has access to my location data while I’m navigating and I have the location history turned off. If you use google photos it can pull geo tags from uploaded photos, which you can also turn off.

Knowing google you probably have to opt out of most of this stuff and it’s probably on by default.
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Yep, I've had the history turned off for almost 3 years now. None of my recent trips are listed.
 
rufus said:
Unemployment, this program, what's the difference? it's still socialist money from the government.
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Employees are entitled to a finite number of weeks of unemployment. This program will delay burning that up.

Second, under this program employees will receive full benefits, including our 401k contribution. They don’t get that with unemployment.
 
Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

SJHovey said:
Employees are entitled to a finite number of weeks of unemployment. This program will delay burning that up.

Second, under this program employees will receive full benefits, including our 401k contribution. They don’t get that with unemployment.
Click to expand...

Of course, that assumes a benevolent employer who doesn't suspend benefits as much as legally possible (especially 401k matching), or pull BS like requiring employees to burn up their PTO. Which is definitely happening.
 
Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

aparch said:
A friend of mine in North Carolina shared her State Representatives's Facebook post.

Some key takeaways:




I feel that some Midwestern representatives need to see this (glares at Michigan GOP)...
Click to expand...

This post is why I fear and believe this pandemic is going to be like the 1918 flu pandemic all over again. We'll see the inevitable lessening in May and June, and by July 4th think it's all clear. That's probably a GREAT time for trump to finally have his military parade. Those guys can at least be ordered to gather in large numbers. Then in September or so, when the virus pokes its head out of the ground people will start getting infected all over again and by November 1st we're right back to where we are on April 12th. The only difference is by then we might be doing a little better on the availability of PPE for healthcare workers so maybe fewer of them will needlessly be getting sick or worse. Well, sort of needlessly.
 
Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

WeAreNDHockey said:
This post is why I fear and believe this pandemic is going to be like the 1918 flu pandemic all over again. We'll see the inevitable lessening in May and June, and by July 4th think it's all clear. That's probably a GREAT time for trump to finally have his military parade. Those guys can at least be ordered to gather in large numbers. Then in September or so, when the virus pokes its head out of the ground people will start getting infected all over again and by November 1st we're right back to where we are on April 12th. The only difference is by then we might be doing a little better on the availability of PPE for healthcare workers so maybe fewer of them will needlessly be getting sick or worse. Well, sort of needlessly.
Click to expand...

I thought it was pretty much common knowledge that there will be multiple waves of this, but given past treatments/tests/etc, each wave will be smaller in the future. Until a vaccine is found, it won't go away, it'll just lessen.
 
Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Of course, that assumes a benevolent employer who doesn't suspend benefits as much as legally possible (especially 401k matching), or pull BS like requiring employees to burn up their PTO. Which is definitely happening.
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It also depends on the company getting a loan large enough to actually do those things. From what I am hearing that is hardly the case. (and the chances dropped big after Day 1) Even getting the $15,000 cap from SBA is getting harder and a lot of banks dont even want to tough the PPP. (big or small)

If my buddy's SBA guy is to be believed, they got triple the amount of applications they expected, and they got them all right away. The system isnt meant to handle that. (see also: Unemployment) SBA is trying to hire thousands of workers to process applications and they need more money because they just dont have enough to cover all the applications they are getting. 9let alone the ones who will be coming)

My gf has a family friend who worked at SBA for years. She has never been happier to be retired :D
 
Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

The Rube said:
I thought it was pretty much common knowledge that there will be multiple waves of this, but given past treatments/tests/etc, each wave will be smaller in the future. Until a vaccine is found, it won't go away, it'll just lessen.
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Waves are only inevitable if you open back up. If you keep restrictions in place long enough you mitigate any possible re-infection point. (it wont mean zero second wave but it will be much smaller)

This is another reason why short term UBI is the answer. You pay people to not work for the summer and you exponentially raise the likelihood that there isnt a massive second wave because people are not risking their health to go to work. (or on vacation)

And here is the thing...it isnt like it is that bad. We arent stuck in quarantine without amenities, and we arent under lock and key. Sure we cant go get drinks at the bar or have massive parties for our friends but we all have phones, we all have internet access and (most likely) we all have resources at our disposal to get everything we need. Businesses are suffering and that sucks, but if it is a choice between Duluth going broke because people cant go get wasted at Grandma's and not killing thousands of people every few months...well I know what I choose. Life just isnt that bad right now.
 
Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

The Rube said:
I thought it was pretty much common knowledge that there will be multiple waves of this, but given past treatments/tests/etc, each wave will be smaller in the future. Until a vaccine is found, it won't go away, it'll just lessen.
Click to expand...

But the 1918 pandemic did not lessen in that way. It came back late in 1918 and was far more devastating in many parts of the world, including this country late in 1918 and into 1919 than it was early in 1918. And we don't completely know anything yet about this virus. Is it seasonal, is it not? Widespread testing and contact tracing are how we could have assured better outcomes. The odds of an effective vaccine or treatment regimen before the beginning of 2021 at the earliest are almost zero. If we had the political will and leadership, we could have widespread testing before the end of the year. We won't, and however many people have died from this in April and May will likely be joined by just as many in November and December. And it doesn't have to be this way. THAT'S why our president is a mass murderer.
 
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FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Of course, that assumes a benevolent employer who doesn't suspend benefits as much as legally possible (especially 401k matching), or pull BS like requiring employees to burn up their PTO. Which is definitely happening.
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Under the loan program you are required to pay the same pay and benefits that were in place on I believe February 15.
 
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