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Covfefe-19 The 12th Part: The Only Thing Worse Than This New Board Is TrumpVirus2020

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NCAA watcher said:
twitter thread this morning from Bob Wachter, chair of the department of internal medicine at UCSF.

--U.S. is now considering idea of a single vaccination shot, delaying shot #2 until months later. Last wk, I thought that was a bad idea – the trials that found 95% efficacy were 2 shots; why add extra complexity & a new curveball. But facts on the ground demand a rethink. (1/7)

--The two main changes are the slower-than-expected vaccine rollout and the new variant virus being found in the U.S. Both demand that we turbocharge the process of getting a large chunk of the population at least partly protected. (2/7)

--Here's my back-of-the-envelope math: - Single shot seems to be about 80% protective after a month - 2nd shot adds some efficacy (up to 95% protective), and maybe (tho not yet proven) some durability. - New variant is here, and undoubtedly far more widespread than we know. (3/7)

-- Variant is ~55% more infectious than old one. Even though it's not more deadly, this means that if we engage in same behaviors, many more will get Covid & thus far more will die. UK shows that once here, it spreads fast. - We seem incapable of changing behavior very much. (4/7)

-- As has been widely reported, the roll-out is going far slower than we hoped. - According to most vaccine experts, delaying shot #2 by a few months is unlikely to materially diminish the ultimate effectiveness of two shots (critical point; we should be testing to be sure). (5/7)

--Taken together, if we have vaccine doses to distribute in Jan-Apr, it seems increasingly evident that a strategy of getting as many people (particularly high-risk) their first shot ASAP will save far more lives than sticking with the two shot plan. (6/7)

--Far better to have 100M people who are 80% protected than 50M people who are 95% protected, particularly as we are facing a foe that is getting smarter and nastier. Or at least it seems that way to me. You? (7/7)
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Interesting thread. Right now, we don’t have 100 million doses, and clearly a supply/delivery problem, not a demand problem. We are barely getting the vaccines to nursing home residents/workers and hospital staff, and we know where they live/work. It should be the easiest part, as the article Hovey posted mentions. Lining up all healthy teenagers in town outside their local nursing home or hospital won’t get the vaccine out any faster. And, again, little evidence out there of curbing transmission once vaccinated more compelling than the safety efficacy to justify giving it to said teenager over a nursing home resident.
If experts come back and say, due to XYZ we’re going to give all high-risk people just one dose, and then spread the rest out until there’s more vaccine available, great. From what I’ve read, up to 100 million Americans are higher risk anyways, so if that’s the new path, after the highest risk people are taken care of with just one dose, I’ll defer to the judgment of those experts, since they obviously know a lot more than me on the subject.
 
jerphisch said:
Awwwwww yeah, let's make fun of WV for being dumb. The place with 2.5x the pop of ND and the same # of COVID deaths.
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Didn’t you know, it’s ok to compare the low density states with high populous ones but it’s not ok to compare the USA to any other countries because they’ll be different than us
 
Handyman said:
I like how the administration wanted to have 20 million vaccinated by New Years but that wasn't even the amount shipped and they still do victory laps and pretend they arent part of the problem.

That whole article is rather infuriating...
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Funny that we solved most of the distribution issue in a day. All it needed was a month or so of recruitment and another of training, done through the pharmacies, and distribution would not be a problem.

It was interesting to see the comment about Puerto Rico, where the people doing it went home for Christmas. FWIW, the pharmacies are open except for Christmas itself. Whoever "planned" the distribution there didn't think all that well. Thankfully, the amount of infections is pretty low, relatively speaking.

But that article just points out the fact that the "leaders" were only interested in getting the vial of liquid- so that they can take credit for it. They clearly didn't plan the distribution, even though it's required for the vaccine to even have a point.
 
walrus said:
I thought that was Keplers shtick ?
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Kepler sees no distinction between WV and ND.

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Wn_zaoPj1yQoZd6-BBuQQNfofavDQ6gk5EVeo9ZK1_s2sC528M0ENScFvjNujDiyxnaMDvuG_LU31aiosWhReX26tIhMitZTHgYxootxL-UBp6I8RAuplCUk

Figs 1 & 2. Plastic boobs on a stick.

To be fair, ND has better child-bearing hips to serve as some flyover car dealer's baby cannon.
 
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More Reasons This All Failed

In case you dont want to read the Times...it is a long expose on how literally everyone in the WH (outside of Atlas, Meadows and Nazi Miller) tried to get Trump to wear a mask, make a mask mandate and admit the virus kicked his butt but he got through it and so will America. Kushner, Azar, Ivanka, Jason Miller all tried. When even polling in the battleground states showed the majority supported masks (including 70% of Republicans) he chose to ignore it and go with Atlas' ideas instead. Even when presented with studies that showed mask wearing helped he ignored it because he believed it made him look stronger not wearing one.

Lots of anecdotes like how Azar wore a mask at parties and if people wouldnt he would keep his distance from them, Trump blaming Kushner because of all the cases, Ivanka trying to get him to do an address after he got out of the hospital amongst others. Of course when he found a mask he looked good in (in his mind) he was fine wearing it but it lasted like a day or two.

edit: well this part is frustrating:

Some of the doctors on the task force, including Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, were reluctant to show up in person at the White House, worried that the disdain there for mask wearing and social distancing would leave them at risk of infection.

Vice President Mike Pence was nominally in charge of the task force but was so cautious about getting crosswise with Mr. Trump as they battled for re-election that, in public at least, he became nearly invisible.

The debates inside the White House increasingly revolved around Dr. Atlas, who had no formal training in infectious diseases but whose views — which Mr. Trump saw him deliver on Fox News — appealed to the president’s belief that the crisis was overblown.

His arrival at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue was itself something of a mystery. Some aides said he was discovered by Kayleigh McEnany, the White House press secretary. Others said John McEntee, the president’s personnel chief, had been Googling for a Trump-friendly doctor who would be loyal.

Marc Short, Mr. Pence’s chief of staff, opposed hiring Dr. Atlas. But once the president and his team brought him in, Mr. Short insisted that Dr. Atlas have a seat at the task force table, hoping to avoid having him become yet another internal — and destructive — critic.

Once inside, Dr. Atlas used the perch of a West Wing office to shape the response. During a meeting in early fall, Dr. Atlas asserted that college students were at no risk from the virus. We should let them go back to school, he said. It’s not a problem.

Dr. Birx exploded. What aspect of the fact that you can be asymptomatic and still spread it do you not understand? she demanded. You might not die, but you can give it to somebody who can die from it. She was livid.

“Your strategy is literally going to cost us lives,” she yelled at Dr. Atlas. She attacked Dr. Atlas’s ideas in daily emails she sent to senior officials. And she was mindful of a pact she had made with Dr. Hahn, Dr. Fauci and Dr. Redfield even before Dr. Atlas came on board: They would stick together if one of them was fired for doing what they considered the right thing.
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Health officials often had a hard time finding an audience in the upper reaches of the West Wing. In a mid-November task force meeting, they issued a dire warning to Mr. Meadows about the looming surge in cases set to devastate the country. Mr. Meadows demanded data to back up their claim.

One outcome of the meeting was a Nov. 19 news conference on the virus’s dire threat, the first in many weeks. But while Mr. Pence, who led the briefing, often urged Americans to “do their part” to slow the spread of the virus, he never directly challenged Mr. Trump’s hesitancy on masks and social distancing. At the briefing, he said that “decision making at the local level” was key, continuing a long pattern of the administration seeking to push responsibility to the states.

Mr. Azar had been cut out of key decision-making as early as February, when Mr. Pence took over the task force. Mr. Azar would complain to his associates that Mr. Pence’s staff and task force members went around him to issue orders to his subordinates.
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One of my trump humper uneducated relatives is trying to get a petition signed because “kids can’t play hockey if they can’t breathe”

because they have to wear masks to play.

bitch I wore a mask in an mri machine, your unfortunate spawn will be able to breathe
 
Handyman said:
More Reasons This All Failed

In case you dont want to read the Times...it is a long expose on how literally everyone in the WH (outside of Atlas, Meadows and Nazi Miller) tried to get Trump to wear a mask, make a mask mandate and admit the virus kicked his butt but he got through it and so will America. Kushner, Azar, Ivanka, Jason Miller all tried. When even polling in the battleground states showed the majority supported masks (including 70% of Republicans) he chose to ignore it and go with Atlas' ideas instead. Even when presented with studies that showed mask wearing helped he ignored it because he believed it made him look stronger not wearing one.

Lots of anecdotes like how Azar wore a mask at parties and if people wouldnt he would keep his distance from them, Trump blaming Kushner because of all the cases, Ivanka trying to get him to do an address after he got out of the hospital amongst others. Of course when he found a mask he looked good in (in his mind) he was fine wearing it but it lasted like a day or two.

edit: well this part is frustrating:
Click to expand...

It’s like a Friday night TV show, just terrible and unoriginal writing. I wish it were “so stupid it had to be true” but this ain’t that.

Shocking that Birx comes out like a hero in this piece. Wonder who the sources were... RollEyes.gif.
 
I dont think Birx is a source...most of that info came out in November. Her hatred of Atlas was known going back to him becoming a prominent member of the WH team. That is why she disappeared.

If I had to guess Kushner and Azar are the sources. (along with maybe Dr. Hahn) Kushner because MAGA Haberman is on the byline and Azar because he is pond scum but somehow makes himself look like an almost human being in it.

No matter I believe almost all of it. This fits pretty much everything we know to be true already and the new info falls right in line with that.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
One of my trump humper uneducated relatives is trying to get a petition signed because “kids can’t play hockey if they can’t breathe”

because they have to wear masks to play.

***** I wore a mask in an mri machine, your unfortunate spawn will be able to breathe
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I always assumed my kids would play hockey given how much I love it but after seeing how ******* stupid a lot of the parents are I’m not sure now. WTF is wrong with these people?
 
Drew S. said:
I always assumed my kids would play hockey given how much I love it but after seeing how ******* stupid a lot of the parents are I’m not sure now. *** is wrong with these people?
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My brother resigned as a youth hockey director during the pandemic because literally every safety measure agreed upon, parents would try to find a way around it. Too ****ing frustrating.
 
Well looks like the 2020 is going out with a bang...already 198k cases reported and almost 2900 dead. 315 in Texas and 293 in Pennsylvania easily the highest totals...
 
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