There isn't going to be any widespread dialing it back in a lot of states no matter what happens. You think the MAGAts are gonna let that happen in places like WI, IN or MI? If cases spike in Michigan, that's when trump will blow his dog whistle and Whitmer will need to shelter in place, and not because of coronavirus. Evers has had his pee-pee slapped plenty hard and the gerrymandered legislation will make sure he can take no statewide action. Indiana's governor has been doing his best to hide his republican cred but he's sure to have used up all his ability to think by now, and his inner Mike Pence will come to the surface if deaths and hospitalizations spike in Indiana. We might see local measures in places where there are functional politicians but in red areas of any state and in red states overall people could (and will) drop like flies and either the numbers will be fudged and hidden, or it will just be chalked up to the price we pay to make sure we enrich our betters.
America proved to be even less resilient than I thought we'd be. Data shows we could barely keep up with good social distancing measures for a month in a lot of places. Recent images from places where restrictions are lifting shows people only took this seriously because they were told to, proving to me we HAD to tell them to because there was zero chance it was going to happen on its own.