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Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

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Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Handyman said:
It isnt about the 70% who dont get it. Do you understand that 30% getting it is a HUGE problem? We dont have the resources to deal with the fraction of the 30% that are going to get really sick over it.

Seriously...you can do basic math and see the problem. What is the population of the US? What is 30% of that? How many of them will need vents? How many do we have? Those numbers are not close.
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Let me ask you this Handy, since I've never considered you to be an unreasonable poster. Is there any country in the world that will see 30% of its population infected with this virus? Because 30% is a huge number, and then we have people throwing around numbers like 50%.

Italy, which right now is basically the poster child for how bad things can get, is at one tenth of one percent of its population.

30%?

Yeah, I get the idea of exponential increases, but seriously 30%?
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

bronconick said:
I'm (not) looking forward to Trump going out in a few days and ordering businesses reopen but there's no way he can keep his mouth shut while his reelection tanks with a 25% unemployment rate. Ought to be entertaining from an abstract view
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Until someone at a Waffle House gets infected and spreads it...then 25% will be a dream.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

SJHovey said:
Let me ask you this Handy, since I've never considered you to be an unreasonable poster. Is there any country in the world that will see 30% of its population infected with this virus? Because 30% is a huge number, and then we have people throwing around numbers like 50%.

Italy, which right now is basically the poster child for how bad things can get, is at one tenth of one percent of its population.

30%?

Yeah, I get the idea of exponential increases, but seriously 30%?
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And at that small amount, it's a total healthcare crisis. So why is 10,20,30% important? If it just takes .1%, we have a huge problem.

Is that not really, really obvious?
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

SJHovey said:
Let me ask you this Handy, since I've never considered you to be an unreasonable poster. Is there any country in the world that will see 30% of its population infected with this virus? Because 30% is a huge number, and then we have people throwing around numbers like 50%.

Italy, which right now is basically the poster child for how bad things can get, is at one tenth of one percent of its population.

30%?

Yeah, I get the idea of exponential increases, but seriously 30%?
Click to expand...

No...but I also didnt say 30% would. And I definitely said only a fraction of the 30% will need hospital care. Seriously watch the video I linked they take the best case scenarios based on what the experts are seeing and it isnt good.

Here...lets say 10%. That is 33 million. Now lets say 1% of the 33 million need respirators that is 330000. That is well within the projected number so the curve is flatter. If 2% need respirators that basically is the cap as we have, at most, 700k respirators. In China 15% of Cases Required Hospitalization and 5% Required Critical Care so it is not out of the realm to think that even by conservative numbers we are friggin screwed. 5% of the original number is well over one and a half million ventilators. That means over half the people who need them cant have them.

That is the fallacy in the numbers people keep talking about. They ignore the low number of resources. Hell even if 95% of the people dont have it that is still 16.5 million that do. If the China percentage holds that is 825,000 vents needed for critical care. That is 125,000 that get the big N-O and probably die unless it is spread out over weeks/months. At the rate this is spreading that isnt possible.

And I am COMPLETELY unreasonable thank you very much. :D

edit: If the 5% China saw holds anything over 4% of the population in this country unless it is spread out will overrun our hospital capacity and that is IF we treat no one else.
 
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Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Kepler said:
How would Waffle House infections affect the employment rate?
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Well the outbreak would spread and the US would have to shut down. If they walk back the measures and this re-flares up there wont be hemming and hawing after that.

I chose Waffle House because rednecks for sure will flock out in public and they sure like dem Waffle Houses in Trumplandia ;)

edit: The US is over 43k cases.
 
SJHovey said:
Let me ask you this Handy, since I've never considered you to be an unreasonable poster. Is there any country in the world that will see 30% of its population infected with this virus? Because 30% is a huge number, and then we have people throwing around numbers like 50%.

Italy, which right now is basically the poster child for how bad things can get, is at one tenth of one percent of its population.

30%?

Yeah, I get the idea of exponential increases, but seriously 30%?
Click to expand...

Without shutting things down the CDC estimated 70% or more of the US would get it. No one has any immunity.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Handyman said:
Well the outbreak would spread and the US would have to shut down. If they walk back the measures and this re-flares up there wont be hemming and hawing after that.

I chose Waffle House because rednecks for sure will flock out in public and they sure like dem Waffle Houses in Trumplandia ;)

edit: The US is over 43k cases.
Click to expand...

I understand it would infect people who go to Waffle House. That wasn't my question.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

rufus said:
Where were we at four days ago, 12,000?
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13,789

Two weeks ago we were getting 100 new cases a day. A week ago we were getting 1,000. Now it's 10,000. I don't have to tell you where that puts us next week.

At some point it snaps.

Based on work by Lispsitch and colleagues, we used a middle-level estimate of COVID-19 infection rate of 40 percent. We assumed lengths of stay based on published studies. We calculated the capacity gap between current bed occupancy and anticipated COVID-19 demand assuming six, 12 and 18 month transmission curves. In our primary model, we made the very aggressive assumption that 50 percent of currently occupied beds could be freed up to care for COVID-19 patients.

Nationally, based on 40 percent prevalence of COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic, we estimate that 98,876,254 individuals will be infected, 20,598,725 individuals will likely require hospitalization and 4,430,245 individuals will need ICU-level care. We found that inpatient and ICU bed capacity to handle expected patient volumes varied significantly by Hospital Referral Region (See exhibits 1 and 2).

If the infection curve is not flattened and the pandemic is concentrated in a 6-month period, that would leave a capacity gap of 1,373,248 inpatient beds (274 percent potentially available capacity) and 295,350 ICU beds (508 percent potentially available capacity). If the curve of transmission is flattened to 12 months, then the needed inpatient and ICU beds would be reduced to 137 percent and 254 percent of current capacity. However, if hospitals can indeed reduce current bed occupancy by 50 percent and flatten the transmission curve to 18 months, then the capacity needed would be reduced to 89 percent of inpatient and 166 percent of ICU beds. If the infection rate is only 20 percent (low end of current estimates), we would largely be able to meet the needs for inpatient care if we flatten the curve to 12 months.
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Handyman said:
No...but I also didnt say 30% would. And I definitely said only a fraction of the 30% will need hospital care. Seriously watch the video I linked they take the best case scenarios based on what the experts are seeing and it isnt good.

Here...lets say 10%. That is 33 million. Now lets say 1% of the 33 million need respirators that is 330000. That is well within the projected number so the curve is flatter. If 2% need respirators that basically is the cap as we have, at most, 700k respirators. In China 15% of Cases Required Hospitalization and 5% Required Critical Care so it is not out of the realm to think that even by conservative numbers we are friggin screwed. 5% of the original number is well over one and a half million ventilators. That means over half the people who need them cant have them.

That is the fallacy in the numbers people keep talking about. They ignore the low number of resources. Hell even if 95% of the people dont have it that is still 16.5 million that do. If the China percentage holds that is 825,000 vents needed for critical care. That is 125,000 that get the big N-O and probably die unless it is spread out over weeks/months. At the rate this is spreading that isnt possible.

And I am COMPLETELY unreasonable thank you very much. :D

edit: If the 5% China saw holds anything over 4% of the population in this country unless it is spread out will overrun our hospital capacity and that is IF we treat no one else.
Click to expand...
I watched your video. The first thing she did is assume a 45% infection rate.

Yeah I get that everyone is just guessing, but where is there even a scintilla of evidence this will get to 20%, let alone 45%?
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

An observation --State and local governments are going to be in a cash squeeze if businesses stay closed.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Kepler said:
I understand it would infect people who go to Waffle House. That wasn't my question.
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Yeah but they dont quarantine away from people who DONT go to Waffle House. All it takes is one normal being near one and we are all screwed.

So basically...burn down the Waffle Houses, Save the World :D
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

SJHovey said:
Doesn’t answer the question though.
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That's because a crisis is so far lower than the thoughts of infection rates that some are projecting that the question is rendered moot.

Why worry about 5,10,15,... % when 0.1% is a crisis. Why does the question even matter at that point? Unless you study epidemics and pandemics, the number is irrelevant unless we can keep the rate low enough to not exceed the system- and if we can do that, then we can worry about the final infection number that will take many years to work out.

Arguing the math of how bad the system will be in crisis.... ok so we get death panels. What a great place we live in.
 
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