Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

[Handyman]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">West Hollywood mayor, who tested positive for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#coronavirus</a>, said his husband attended a conference of the American Group Psychotherapy Assn. in New York in early March. The event has been tied to at least 22 positive cases. <a href="https://t.co/noWCVLznh5">https://t.co/noWCVLznh5</a></p>— Hailey Branson-Potts (@haileybranson) <a href="https://twitter.com/haileybranson/status/1242222427658055680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is a very, very, very bad chart for the US. <a href="https://t.co/Cg5A7vlCa5">pic.twitter.com/Cg5A7vlCa5</a></p>— Franklin Leonard (@franklinleonard) <a href="https://twitter.com/franklinleonard/status/1242291377729228801?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 24, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Important to realize: that's a log chart, folks.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

I wondered where Russia was.

It's a combination of two things. First, they're lying, of course. But also their tests are far less sensitive. I'm kinda surprised, actually. In the Bad Olde Days immunology was one of the things the Soviets were not sucky at.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"Better Dead Than In The Red"</p>— Kevin M. Kruse (@KevinMKruse) <a href="https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1242247352796303361?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 24, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

1200: Your duty is to die for your king.

1600: Your duty is to die for your church.

2000: Your duty is to die for your job creators.

SSDD.

 

[cF[Authentic]]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

We need to stop caring about the number of infected. That number is ridiculously low due to the lack of tests. Even in Italy, where only certain people can get tested, it's stupidly low. Sure, the "numbers" may say only 1% of the population has Covid-19 but when sick people are being turned away from testing, those aren't accurate numbers. We'll never know truly how many people are infected until everyone can get a test every few days.

Follow the death rate. For those that claimed this was just like the flu, we'll be passing the daily number of flu deaths in the country today. And it's not going down any time soon.

 

[alfablue]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

huskeyfan- thanks for the private update, that's good to hear! But I am concerned that people who visit one of the big box markets in the area are not aware of people who got sick and work there....

I get that not everyone should get tested, but given some of the work that does have to continue, the stores that stay open should be far more important to control the spread- just like doctors and police.

Which then brings up a next question- how long from the last real symptom until you can start interacting with people? And then how long until you can return to a supply job that is important to people staying home?

Three more days until we started our WFH, and no contact with work. Couple more days after that until the time we were within a few feet of a person in a grocery store. Not sure what side of the statistics we end up being on- w/o tests we have no idea if we had it from travel in Feb or if we are safe....

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

If I see one more person use the phrase “per capita” in an argument downplaying the seriousness of what we’re facing, I might scream out loud. Per capita has nothing do do with a disease that spreads exponentially. When the very first case cam into the US (presumably on a plane from China), out per capita incidence was 1 in 331M. What does that prove? Nothing. A low per capita rate just means you’re early on the curve, not that the curve won’t grow.

The exponential growth rate is determined by 3 factors: the number of days that infected people are contagious, the number of interactions per day that infected people have with uninflected people per day, and the probability that each of those interactions leads to the uninflected person contracting the disease. Multiply those thee numbers together, and you get the number of new cases that each case will spawn. If that number is greater than 1 - congratulations, you’re on an exponential growth curve. Period.

So the only way to beat this is to decrease one or more of those three factors. Treatment is all about reducing the duration that sick people are contagious (factor 1). Unfortunately, we don’t seem to have any effective solutions in this area yet, despite The Toddler’s advise that we should drink fish tank cleaner. Moving on to interactions per day (factor 2) is where social distancing can make a real difference. Cut your interactions in half, and you’ve halved your transmission rate - poof. That wasn’t so hard, was it? Finally, we can reduce the probability that a given interaction leads to a new infection (factor 3) can be reduced through PPE and hygiene. If the healthy person doesn’t get the virus on them due to PPE or washes the virus off before it can enter the body, no new infection will result from the interaction.

So that’s it. Everything else is smoke and mirrors and politics.

It come down to:

1. Stay the F••• home
2. Wash your D••• hands
3. Provide the right PPE to people who must interact with infected people. I’m looking at you, Toddler.

If we, as a society, won’t do those three things, then we will have chosen our own disaster.

 

[state of hockey]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">So we're doing The Trolley Problem but the most important thing is to save the trolley</p>— Mark Agee (@MarkAgee) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkAgee/status/1242264989596913664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 24, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

So, we need to die for the economy? That's what the Republicans are going with now?

 

[joecct]

So, we need to die for the economy? That's what the Republicans are going with now?

Cuts down on Social Security payments, doesn't it?

(Set Cynical Off)

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Cuts down on Social Security payments, doesn't it?

(Set Cynical Off)

Sure. We can make sure the stupid die as well.

An Arizona man died and his wife was hospitalized after officials said they ingested a fish tank additive that contained the same active ingredient as an anti-malaria drug, which President Trump has referred to as a “game changer.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/...WdX6Bsw-e6_aSr2jmFHWqB-c8pejUpIpcdZjzpMXomvbk

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

The stupid will take a fair number of us with them, but given that red and blue staters have been self-segregating for decades it's worth a shot.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Why can't you simply address Handy's "0.1%" simulation instead of fixating on what you think are more unreasonable estimates?

So, two reasons.

First, because everyone keeps throwing out huge, unsubstantiated numbers and then asks people to make basic assumptions about those numbers. Well meaning people, but absurd numbers nonetheless. For example, Governor Walz, who is doing a terrific job throws out a guess that 40 to 80% of Minnesotans will be infected. I'll link to the article. There is literally nothing in the article that gives us any idea as to why we should think that number is realistic or what it's based on. He just threw it out there. Well, there is a huge difference between 40% and 80% of the population, even in Minnesota.

When I question the numbers, then people like Handy just say something like, ok, ignore the 45% figure and let's go with 20% or something like that. We're just making up numbers and then doing calculations about how many ventilators we'll need.

So that's the first problem, everyone just wants to use a big number to show how bad the need is.

The second is this. Handy discussed a very important issue, and that is the question that relates to available healthcare resources. He is absolutely right. If we need 1.5 million ventilators in the next month, we aren't going to have them. Why we have that shortage is for another discussion, but he's right about that.

The healthcare system can only do what it can do. It would be no different than if instead of all dying when the Twin Towers collapsed, the 3000 people were critically injured. The NYC healthcare system would have been overwhelmed and they would have had to engage in triage. Some people are going to die because of lack of available healthcare. That happens every day, and it will happen here.

But more importantly, and what no one on this board is willing to talk about, are the actual numbers.

If I asked you this question, "how many more deaths were there in this country in 2019 as compared with say 2010," what would your answer be?

What if I told you that there were something like 375,000 more deaths here in 2019 than in 2010? Did it feel like it to you? Were we having conversations on this board about where all the people went in this country? No, of course not. Literally no one except demographers even noticed.

So let's assume all 1.5 million of Handy's ventilator patients die (which they shouldn't if half of them have available ventilators). In the big picture is that a human tragedy unknown to man?

60 million people a year die on this planet, year after year after year. This virus has killed 17,000 worldwide in what, three months?

By the way, here is the Walz article on his guess for an infection rate. https://www.startribune.com/gov-tim...tact-with-someone-who-has-covid-19/569026922/

 

[alfablue]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

So, two reasons.

First, because everyone keeps throwing out huge, unsubstantiated numbers and then asks people to make basic assumptions about those numbers. Well meaning people, but absurd numbers nonetheless. For example, Governor Walz, who is doing a terrific job throws out a guess that 40 to 80% of Minnesotans will be infected. I'll link to the article. There is literally nothing in the article that gives us any idea as to why we should think that number is realistic or what it's based on. He just threw it out there. Well, there is a huge difference between 40% and 80% of the population, even in Minnesota.

When I question the numbers, then people like Handy just say something like, ok, ignore the 45% figure and let's go with 20% or something like that. We're just making up numbers and then doing calculations about how many ventilators we'll need.

So that's the first problem, everyone just wants to use a big number to show how bad the need is.

The second is this. Handy discussed a very important issue, and that is the question that relates to available healthcare resources. He is absolutely right. If we need 1.5 million ventilators in the next month, we aren't going to have them. Why we have that shortage is for another discussion, but he's right about that.

The healthcare system can only do what it can do. It would be no different than if instead of all dying when the Twin Towers collapsed, the 3000 people were critically injured. The NYC healthcare system would have been overwhelmed and they would have had to engage in triage. Some people are going to die because of lack of available healthcare. That happens every day, and it will happen here.

But more importantly, and what no one on this board is willing to talk about, are the actual numbers.

If I asked you this question, "how many more deaths were there in this country in 2019 as compared with say 2010," what would your answer be?

What if I told you that there were something like 375,000 more deaths here in 2019 than in 2010? Did it feel like it to you? Were we having conversations on this board about where all the people went in this country? No, of course not. Literally no one except demographers even noticed.

So let's assume all 1.5 million of Handy's ventilator patients die (which they shouldn't if half of them have available ventilators). In the big picture is that a human tragedy unknown to man?

60 million people a year die on this planet, year after year after year. This virus has killed 17,000 worldwide in what, three months?

By the way, here is the Walz article on his guess for an infection rate. https://www.startribune.com/gov-tim...tact-with-someone-who-has-covid-19/569026922/

So what is your point? Based on your questions, what do you think we should be doing??? I don't get it.

Are you suggesting that the world should just accept the increase in deaths, or are you thinking of a different way of dealing with it?

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

So what is your point? Based on your questions, what do you think we should be doing??? I don't get it.

Are you suggesting that the world should just accept the increase in deaths, or are you thinking of a different way of dealing with it?

I think this is where we are at right now with a lot of people My Republican "friends" here at the office are ****ed off right now at the insane liberal media that is overhyping what is nothing more than the flu. I am hearing this a lot right now. And now that that same theme is coming from Trump it's going to gain steam.

Trump is holding a Town Hall on Fox today?

 

[joecct]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

From NY1's Anthony Pascale

BREAKING: Gov Cuomo: “We have to plan the pivot back to economic functionality” Says we may not have to isolate everyone. Could allow the healthy, less vulnerable to work. #COVID19 survival rate is 98%. NY Forward plan to look into restarting economic engine.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

So, two reasons.

First, because everyone keeps throwing out huge, unsubstantiated numbers and then asks people to make basic assumptions about those numbers. Well meaning people, but absurd numbers nonetheless. For example, Governor Walz, who is doing a terrific job throws out a guess that 40 to 80% of Minnesotans will be infected. I'll link to the article. There is literally nothing in the article that gives us any idea as to why we should think that number is realistic or what it's based on. He just threw it out there. Well, there is a huge difference between 40% and 80% of the population, even in Minnesota.

When I question the numbers, then people like Handy just say something like, ok, ignore the 45% figure and let's go with 20% or something like that. We're just making up numbers and then doing calculations about how many ventilators we'll need.

So that's the first problem, everyone just wants to use a big number to show how bad the need is.

The second is this. Handy discussed a very important issue, and that is the question that relates to available healthcare resources. He is absolutely right. If we need 1.5 million ventilators in the next month, we aren't going to have them. Why we have that shortage is for another discussion, but he's right about that.

The healthcare system can only do what it can do. It would be no different than if instead of all dying when the Twin Towers collapsed, the 3000 people were critically injured. The NYC healthcare system would have been overwhelmed and they would have had to engage in triage. Some people are going to die because of lack of available healthcare. That happens every day, and it will happen here.

But more importantly, and what no one on this board is willing to talk about, are the actual numbers.

If I asked you this question, "how many more deaths were there in this country in 2019 as compared with say 2010," what would your answer be?

What if I told you that there were something like 375,000 more deaths here in 2019 than in 2010? Did it feel like it to you? Were we having conversations on this board about where all the people went in this country? No, of course not. Literally no one except demographers even noticed.

So let's assume all 1.5 million of Handy's ventilator patients die (which they shouldn't if half of them have available ventilators). In the big picture is that a human tragedy unknown to man?

60 million people a year die on this planet, year after year after year. This virus has killed 17,000 worldwide in what, three months?

By the way, here is the Walz article on his guess for an infection rate. https://www.startribune.com/gov-tim...tact-with-someone-who-has-covid-19/569026922/

FOr the morons in the back:

THRY ARE NOT UNSUBSTANTIATED

“But mah biznuss!”

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

So what is your point? Based on your questions, what do you think we should be doing??? I don't get it.

Are you suggesting that the world should just accept the increase in deaths, or are you thinking of a different way of dealing with it?

What would I do if I had complete control.

In those locations hardest hit, I would use more aggressive shelter in place applications. Target the clusters.
I would preach strenuous social distancing. Wash hands. De-sanitize. Stay home if you're sick or in contact with someone who is.
I would find those who are sick and isolate them. I'd try to trace their contacts (not people they may have walked past, but people where they share spaces and touched the same things and had real contact with), and I'd isolate those contacts.
I would do everything I could to try to get healthcare supplies into the hands of healthcare workers. Masks, gloves, ventilators and everything else could no longer be sold privately but could only go to healthcare facilities for the next few months.
I'd pour money into the healthcare system to set up isolation buildings and tents.
I'd tell healthcare to do what you can, but protect yourselves.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

What would I do if I had complete control.

In those locations hardest hit, I would use more aggressive shelter in place applications. Target the clusters.
I would preach strenuous social distancing. Wash hands. De-sanitize. Stay home if you're sick or in contact with someone who is.
I would find those who are sick and isolate them. I'd try to trace their contacts (not people they may have walked past, but people where they share spaces and touched the same things and had real contact with), and I'd isolate those contacts.
I would do everything I could to try to get healthcare supplies into the hands of healthcare workers. Masks, gloves, ventilators and everything else could no longer be sold privately but could only go to healthcare facilities for the next few months.
I'd pour money into the healthcare system to set up isolation buildings and tents.
I'd tell healthcare to do what you can, but protect yourselves.

You missed the first step of your process, which would be to test everyone. You don't know which locations are hardest hit, where there are clusters, and finding those who are sick without testing literally everyone. So, I think step 1 of your solution would have to be round up 350m tests (along with the appropriate supplies) and test the entire population. You'd also have to prevent movement until the results of such testing is known, and you'd also have to restrict people/products entering the country subject to some mandatory isolation period. Once you've done that, then perhaps your solution could work.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

So what is your point? Based on your questions, what do you think we should be doing??? I don't get it.

Are you suggesting that the world should just accept the increase in deaths, or are you thinking of a different way of dealing with it?

Of course that’s what he’s saying. He’ll deny it.

He plays this stupidly transparent game where he heavily implies something and then when you call him out he says “I didn’t say that! I’m an independent!” Or some such hot garbage. Then he’ll nail himself to the cross, being absolutely sure to leave one hand free to take a key phrase out from a post where someone called him out on his bull**** impolitely, and wave it as a flag for all to see.

Whatever. He’s a really skilled troll. I bite, you bite, we all bite. He’s really good at it. But ultimately, he’s still Bob Gray.