Re: Colgate 2017-18
Before I get to the bulk of my end of season commentary I wanted to clarify that we finished tied for 5th in the ECAC not 6th. Which is a testament to the hard work of both the kids on the team and the coaching staff.
However . . .
I think if you honestly appraise the state of Colgate hockey, this is a high water mark for our program as currently constructed not a sign of tangible progress.
First of all, there is the Point factor. He was so unbelievably good that I think it distorts our true place in the firmament. Stated another way, where does this year’s team finish without Point? I think bottom four without a doubt. And that’s not just idle speculation; look at our record when he didn’t play: 1-5-1 with a goals against of about 3.5. Or viewed through a different lens, go back to the two Princeton games, both Point starts. We tied 0-0 and won 4-0 with Point making over 70 saves in the two games. What was the likely result of those games with another goalie?
But we will almost certainly have Point next year, people will say (with which I agree). Fair enough. That said, as amazing as he was this year, even if he is great again he will probably move back toward the mean. What is more likely statistically speaking, that he improves on 1.76 GAA/.944 save percentage or regresses from that? And what happens if he regresses (even nominally)?
Or ask another question: what is more likely, that Point regresses or we suddenly start miraculously minting 15 goal scorers? Are any players on our current roster going to make a huge jump? McKechney maybe? Anyone else? I’m not seeing it. And to his credit, Panowyk put together a solid season so don’t discount his loss to graduation; I think he was one of our better forwards over the past two months.
But what about incoming recruits?!? I’ve been paying attention to them all season. I have some hope for Jeffrey Stewart who has put together a nice season in Surrey in the BCHL (and who has improved his point totals three years in a row, a good sign). Maybe hope we hit with Griffin Lunn? He’s averaged half a point a game in the USHL which is pretty solid. And we nailed our USHL recruit this year in Nick Austin (who produced little at the USHL level) so maybe we strike lightning twice?
So, that gives us two possibly decent recruits. Certainly not upper echelon talent like an Austin Smith or a Spink twin . . . or even a McMann. As for the other potential recruits, I can’t tell if Arnaud Vachon from Brooks in the AJHL is coming this year or next. But either way, his drop in goal scoring from last year to this is concerning. Jack Hoey? Is he going to come directly from Choate and start producing big time offense? There are a couple of offensive defensemen in the pipeline (Brendan Scanlin from Brooks and Liam Watson-Braun from Prince George in the BCHL) but they are scheduled ‘19-‘20 recruits.
When I look at the totality of it, I just don’t see bushels of goals in our future.
And as if this is not all bad enough, don’t forget that both Yale and Quinnipiac were down this year. I would reckon they are both likely to be better next season. And Princeton looks to be potentially ascendant. I would not be looking so much at moving into the top four as much as desperately trying to remain in the middle four; it’s not going to be easy.
Lastly, several people have said that this was “a good season”. To that point I will certainly concede that the team played hard, was well coached and exceeded expectations. However, I would posit that if .500 denotes “a good season” we have our goals all wrong. Do we think Yale and Quinnipiac who both had similar records to us think they had “good seasons”? Simply being better than our predicted finish of last does not in and of itself denote a good season. Look at the overall makeup of our team. Is it one that we think is poised to become a perennial top four contender? Or are we more likely to slip back into oblivion.
I will close with a point I feel like I make every season. And here I’ll just let the numbers speak for themselves:
In DV’s first 13 years:
8 winning seasons, 5 losing ones. 28 games over .500.
In DV’s next 12 years:
3 winning seasons, 6 losing ones, 3 .500 ones. 41 games under .500.
Is this good enough?