climate change times are a changin'

[Tiggsy]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

It's not a "surprise"--I never said that. The point is that the unforeseen changes in solar output are not a good reason for the models to be discredited--they were never intended to handle short term chaos in outside forcings.

Really? So how long before we get back on track with the model and the sun comes back in line? 100 years? 1000 years? How much time do you need to even out?

Sorry, no. My opinion is based on actual information and reasoning--and that's not to say that that information and reasoning might not be flawed--that's certainly a possibility. Arguing something like "The models should not be dismissed because of the short term divergence because it coincides with an unforeseen drop in solar output" is not fundamentally the same as saying "We can't cause the earth to warm because it's just so big and powerful." They're not the same thing--the latter is 100% gut feeling--it's useless. It would be like me thinking I should be taken seriously with fluff like "I just feel like it's been warmer the last few years."


I didn't claim I'm superior to you (nice try martyr). It's just that in this case, posting a link to a website with actual information and rational arguments is not the same thing as arguing feelings. Ah yes, the "lefty" fall back--I've got a really strange voting record for a lefty.

Semantics. Being condescending regarding my opinion was enough for me to make that connection. You're putting of faith in some website. How do you know it is all true and based on proper science? Is there actual data or is it just a big long essay based on this guy's work or thoughts? Because the data seems to be a big part about this in your eyes. At some point you have to start taking the author's word so where is the line drawn? If I publish a website with my views and have a phd backing me up, that wouldn't be enough.

Blah blah voting record. Elections are obviously about much more than part affiliation so don't point to that as a defense mechanism. Look at how Obama got elected for a prime example. Plus why even bring that up? Are you ashamed or offended being classified as a liberal?

Doesn't it say something that you have to resort to attacking the ACA rather than refuting the simple point that the posted graph is skewed?

My point was to illustrate the double standard, not the skewed data. I have no knowledge of the data or its source beyond what was posted. Pointing out that similar tactics have been done to greater extent is a pretty decent example of that.

 

[GrinCDXX]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

The part of my previous post that you didn't quote.

I respect your opinion on the matter, but I largely disagree. The longer the delay in finding a solution, the longer and bigger the effects could be--I think it's the conservative approach to act aggressively now to avoid what could be a pretty ugly situation for future generations.

 

[Tiggsy]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

I respect your opinion on the matter, but I largely disagree. The longer the delay in finding a solution, the longer and bigger the effects could be--I think it's the conservative approach to act aggressively now to avoid what could be a pretty ugly situation for future generations.

So find a solution that can stand on it's own without government intervention. If it really is that great and that important, you shouldn't need the enforcement arm or financial support of the government. If an electric car was as safe, as cheap, and easier to use and maintain I certainly would buy one next time I'm shopping for a car. I guarantee you 95% of the world would do the same. Until then, we wait.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

I respect your opinion on the matter, but I largely disagree. The longer the delay in finding a solution, the longer and bigger the effects could be--I think it's the conservative approach to act aggressively now to avoid what could be a pretty ugly situation for future generations.

What difference does what 300 million people in america do if China, India and the southeast asia isn't there with us? We've all seen the picture where more people live between pakistan and malaysia than the rest of the world.


Here is a pretty good read that falls somewhere in between what you think and I think:
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/...-lovelock-i-was-alarmist-about-climate-change

(hows that for a source? nbc news good enough?)

 

[GrinCDXX]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

Really? So how long before we get back on track with the model and the sun comes back in line? 100 years? 1000 years? How much time do you need to even out?

That's obviously up to the sun. What's telling is that even during this period of lower solar output, the models still track up and down with observations pretty reliably. That should tell you that they are continuing to model the effects of the internal forcings quite well--they're just off by a correction factor.

Semantics. Being condescending regarding my opinion was enough for me to make that connection. You're putting of faith in some website. How do you know it is all true and based on proper science? Is there actual data or is it just a big long essay based on this guy's work or thoughts? Because the data seems to be a big part about this in your eyes. At some point you have to start taking the author's word so where is the line drawn? If I publish a website with my views and have a phd backing me up, that wouldn't be enough.

I'm putting my faith in my ability to follow a rational argument. Regarding the questions you're posing about the web page I linked to earlier--I suggest you simply read some of it and make your own judgments.

Blah blah voting record. Elections are obviously about much more than part affiliation so don't point to that as a defense mechanism. Look at how Obama got elected for a prime example. Plus why even bring that up? Are you ashamed or offended being classified as a liberal?

Not ashamed--amused that that is your fall back retort to suggest that I'm a lefty, because you simply don't know what you're talking about in that regard.

 

[GrinCDXX]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

What difference does what 300 million people in america do if China, India and the southeast asia isn't there with us? We've all seen the picture where more people live between pakistan and malaysia than the rest of the world.


Here is a pretty good read that falls somewhere in between what you think and I think:
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/...-lovelock-i-was-alarmist-about-climate-change

(hows that for a source? nbc news good enough?)

before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable.

I read up to this quote before deciding that I probably shouldn't put much stock in what this guy is saying now.

I understand that the solution has to involve more than just us. China is showing signs that they are interested in dealing with this. They are undertaking the largest carbon sequestration project in the world near Mongolia. I'm not sure if that technology is going to be a viable part of the solution or not, but it least it shows they recognize a problem exists.

 

[Tiggsy]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

Not ashamed--amused that that is your fall back retort to suggest that I'm a lefty, because you simply don't know what you're talking about in that regard.

Well now I'm curious. What point are you trying to make here? That you're not a lefty? Obviously on this issue that simply isn't true. Of course I don't know you and you don't know me but if you're hardcore liberal on an issue like this, it is usually a safe assumption. If on other issues you have more moderate or conservative tendencies, congratulations and I'm proud of you for that. But that has zero to do with issue being discussed in this thread.

 

[Rover]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

What difference does what 300 million people in america do if China, India and the southeast asia isn't there with us? We've all seen the picture where more people live between pakistan and malaysia than the rest of the world.


Here is a pretty good read that falls somewhere in between what you think and I think:
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/...-lovelock-i-was-alarmist-about-climate-change

(hows that for a source? nbc news good enough?)

Oddly enough, the USA's population is expected to increase, while the population of China is projected to decrease. In fact, some think China is heading for the same demographic doom that's staring Japan in the face - even if the one child policy was lifted, the wealthier populace no longer wants to have more than one which will lead to more elderly than everybody else. Will have to find the study in an old Economist I might still have, but IIRC the US was going to hit 500M by the end of the century, while China would drop to maybe the 800-900 range?

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

Alright, try this one then:
http://www.spiegel.de/international...lems-with-climate-change-models-a-906721.html

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

Oddly enough, the USA's population is expected to increase, while the population of China is projected to decrease. In fact, some think China is heading for the same demographic doom that's staring Japan in the face - even if the one child policy was lifted, the wealthier populace no longer wants to have more than one which will lead to more elderly than everybody else. Will have to find the study in an old Economist I might still have, but IIRC the US was going to hit 500M by the end of the century, while China would drop to maybe the 800-900 range?

Interesting, I had not heard that...would like to see the link if you find it.

 

[GrinCDXX]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

Well now I'm curious. What point are you trying to make here? That you're not a lefty? Obviously on this issue that simply isn't true. Of course I don't know you and you don't know me but if you're hardcore liberal on an issue like this, it is usually a safe assumption. If on other issues you have more moderate or conservative tendencies, congratulations and I'm proud of you for that. But that has zero to do with issue being discussed in this thread.

Please enlighten me. What have I posted here that is "lefty"?

 

[Rover]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

Interesting, I had not heard that...would like to see the link if you find it.

This is not exactly what I was looking for as it only goes out to 2050, but it does state that China reaches peak population in 2030 and then starts going down, while India overtakes it. Also the graph shows US continuing to grow although again I think the 500M # was an end of century and not mid-century estimate.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/06/daily-chart-10

 

[Tiggsy]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

Please enlighten me. What have I posted here that is "lefty"?

You cannot be serious.

 

[GrinCDXX]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

You cannot be serious.

Should be easy to answer then...

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

This question/answer doesn't sound like climate scientists honestly know with any certainty more than the rest of us do, what is going to happen. Instincts and subjective assumptions don't give me a great deal of faith.

SPIEGEL: Despite all these problem areas, do you still believe global warming will continue?

Storch: Yes, we are certainly going to see an increase of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) or more -- and by the end of this century, mind you. That's what my instinct tells me, since I don't know exactly how emission levels will develop. Other climate researchers might have a different instinct. Our models certainly include a great number of highly subjective assumptions. Natural science is also a social process, and one far more influenced by the spirit of the times than non-scientists can imagine. You can expect many more surprises.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

Agreed. Amazing how a "scientist" can in one breath say something is certainly going to happen and in the next breath say he's going by instinct. This stuff makes swiss cheese look like granite.

Bottom line is no meaningful deal will happen because of competing economic interests around the world. Places like China and India may give a little lip service, but they won't let climate change efforts meaningfully impact their economic development.

 

[Tiggsy]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

This question/answer doesn't sound like climate scientists honestly know with any certainty more than the rest of us do, what is going to happen. Instincts and subjective assumptions don't give me a great deal of faith.

So this is science now? Sad.

 

[GrinCDXX]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

This question/answer doesn't sound like climate scientists honestly know with any certainty more than the rest of us do, what is going to happen. Instincts and subjective assumptions don't give me a great deal of faith.

I agree, that guy doesn't come across as very credible.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

I agree, that guy doesn't come across as very credible.

So who is credible then?
Hons von Storch is a German climate scientist. He is a Professor at the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg, and (since 2001) Director of the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz Research Centre.

Did you read the whole Q&A?

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: climate change times are a changin'

I agree, that guy doesn't come across as very credible.

To me, Von Storch comes across as one of the few people trying to be totally honest with us about climate research.