Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is awful

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Chris Hayes is (was, I'm on delay since I stepped away to grab food) destroying Steve something-or-other, a Trump supporter, about Pence's record vs. what he described as the corrupt Washington elite. It was beautiful.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

So, early results and calls will be coming in on the east coast as soon as polls close. So what should we look for? If Hillary takes Fl and PA, is it pretty much impossible for Drumpf? Add in SC and it's over?

PA won't be called until after 9, OH and NC after 10 and FL well after 11.
Game over if...
PA=Sniffles
NC=Clinton

When the first wave of closures comes in after 8PM you'll see Hillary with a huge lead:
Sniffles: KY, WV, SC=22
Clinton: VT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, MA, RI, CT, VA, ME (+CD1)=71

It will get closer at 9PM and Sniffles may even lead at 10PM depending on how quickly they can call Texas.
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/JzQKv.png

At 11PM it will swing back to Clinton:
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/ZZbRV.png
(we can add AK and HI since they are foregone conclusions)

By then a few of the toss up states back east will have been called and PA and NH should have put Clinton over the top.

At around midnight the map better not look like this...
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/ejr94.png

(ETA: Started this before supper, came back and finished and of course everyone has moved on to other things )

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Are you suggesting that MN might flip...cause if so dont even seriously consider it. WI is remote MN would be the pipe dream of all pipe dreams.

Look, I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm not saying it is even unlikely. I'd put it at around 7:1-10:1. Remote, but not impossible. It's not like Minnesota is a bastion of progressiveness like California. It's a progressive state, but it's also pragmatic and sometimes unpredictable.

 

[bronconick]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Eichenwald tweeted 129 things about Trump from a 6 month investigation. Hilarious and/or terrifying

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Minnesota goes as Hennepin County goes...Hennepin County is Blue. Yes they are pragmatic but they are not pro Drumpf.

It isnt 10:1...it is at best 25:1. Every election cycle we hear of the "possibility" that it might be different and it never is. They havent since Nixon and they arent any time soon.

Dont fall for the BS. We were a Bernie State for Pete's sake no way we go Drumpf.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

I guess the reception of the Trump final ad is that it's about as subtle in its anti-Semitism as George Lucas.

Personally, I didn't react that way. You don't have to be reading The Protocols of the Elders of Zion to know there is an international conspiracy of bankers that's destroying the world.

They're not Jewish, they're just rich as-sholes.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Look, I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm not saying it is even unlikely. I'd put it at around 7:1-10:1. Remote, but not impossible. It's not like Minnesota is a bastion of progressiveness like California. It's a progressive state, but it's also pragmatic and sometimes unpredictable.

Let me just drink this glass of water while you suggest voting for Trump could be described as "pragmatic."

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Dont fall for the BS. We were a Bernie State for Pete's sake no way we go Drumpf.

By that logic Wyoming will be going blue tomorrow

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

By that logic Wyoming will be going blue tomorrow

Does Wyoming often vote Blue cause Minnesota hasnt voted Red since I was like -8 years old

 

[MaizeRage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Again, Minnesota voted for Marco Rubio in the primary over Trump. He's not winning here. It's been nice being able to watch the insanity from afar.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Let me just drink this glass of water while you suggest voting for Trump could be described as "pragmatic."

That wasn't the right word.

Traditional, perhaps, is closer to what I meant.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

I guess the reception of the Trump final ad is that it's about as subtle in its anti-Semitism as George Lucas.

Personally, I didn't react that way. You don't have to be reading The Protocols of the Elders of Zion to know there is an international conspiracy of bankers that's destroying the world.

They're not Jewish, they're just rich as-sholes.

His "closing argument" ad is pretty good. Take out the antisemitism and the veiled attacks on immigrants and its an ad the Democrats should have been able to run (with footage of the Bush crime family instead) except they nominated the Queen of the Establishment. If he had run his whole campaign like that tomorrow would be a formality and I would already be in Canada instead of looking at sites that expedite your passport...

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

PA won't be called until after 9, OH and NC after 10 and FL well after 11.
Game over if...
PA=Sniffles
NC=Clinton

When the first wave of closures comes in after 8PM you'll see Hillary with a huge lead:
Sniffles: KY, WV, SC=22
Clinton: VT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, MA, RI, CT, VA, ME (+CD1)=100

It will get closer at 9PM and Sniffles may even lead at 10PM depending on how quickly they can call Texas.
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/JzQKv.png

At 11PM it will swing back to Clinton:
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/ZZbRV.png
(we can add AK and HI since they are foregone conclusions)

By then a few of the toss up states back east will have been called and PA and NH should have put Clinton over the top.

At around midnight the map better not look like this...
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/ejr94.png

(ETA: Started this before supper, came back and finished and of course everyone has moved on to other things )

PA means nothing on its own. She needs PA and NC. The rest of the states would need to follow their current leanings then.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Again, Minnesota voted for Marco Rubio in the primary over Trump. He's not winning here. It's been nice being able to watch the insanity from afar.

Hehe I forgot that

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

PA means nothing on its own. She needs PA and NC. The rest of the states would need to follow their current leanings then.

She doesnt need NC at all. Even without NC and Florida and Ohio she still has more than 65% chance to win. (as seen on 538 leading into today...though then Michigan becomes YUUUGE) All it means is we sweat until Nevada and WI come in.

What is with all the pessimism all of a sudden? Polls are leaning Clinton (and have never leaned Drumpf) and even Nate with his skewing has had Clinton on the rise. EV numbers in almost every state are good news for Clinton as well.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

She doesnt need NC at all. Even without NC and Florida and Ohio she still has more than 65% chance to win. (as seen on 538 leading into today...though then Michigan becomes YUUUGE) All it means is we sweat until Nevada and WI come in.

What is with all the pessimism all of a sudden? Polls are leaning Clinton (and have never leaned Drumpf) and even Nate with his skewing has had Clinton on the rise. EV numbers in almost every state are good news for Clinton as well.

I'm not pessimistic. I'm also not blindly optimistic. Trump has been the single most unpredictable thing to happen in politics in any of our lifetimes. Until a new house has been built over the smoldering ashes of this race, I'm not convinced the fire is out.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

olls are leaning Clinton (and have never leaned Drumpf) and even Nate with his skewing has had Clinton on the rise. EV numbers in almost every state are good news for Clinton as well.

Senate polls seem to be bouncing our way too.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Oh my God. Obama is setting all sorts of bear traps and baiting them with bacon. By the end of the night, this will be Trump

(I just wish the crowd would shut the **** up with all their, "THAT'S RIGHT!" )

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

I'm not pessimistic. I'm also not blindly optimistic. Trump has been the single most unpredictable thing to happen in politics in any of our lifetimes. Until a new house has been built over the smoldering ashes of this race, I'm not convinced the fire is out.

I understand...but you are smart enough to know math doesnt lie. You sound like Gopher fans who always assume a split every series to prevent being let down

I am taking nothing for granted (hence why I voted) but when we see that half of Florida has voted (with Latinos and women at higher levels than expected) and Hillary holds the lead that is a good sign. When Nevada has the same thing going on (and she is outpacing Obama's numbers) and even the pundits there are saying he needs every vote on Tuesday to have a shot that is a good sign. When the running line all election season has been "Hillary needs people to vote" and every metric shows engagement is high and early voting is breaking records...yeah I feel good.

Trust me...I know the score. I just dont look at a 2 goal lead as the hardest to protect

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

PA means nothing on its own. She needs PA and NC. The rest of the states would need to follow their current leanings then.

If she loses PA she isn't winning NC.