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Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is awful

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

St. Clown said:
Unless the bombshell release shows Donnie Orange Tones holding a gun during a snuff film, what could be more outrageous than the things we already know?
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don't have to be more outrageous. Just need to be the focus of the news cycle between now and tuesday. People have forgotten about all the other outrageous **** now and only hear about the EMAILZZZ!!!
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Kepler said:
Metaphysical certitude.

I assume there will be dueling bombshells. Trump, er, the FBI will release all its files on everyone in America who has ever registered Democratic. Clinton, er, the Liberal Media will release footage of Trump raping a 9-year old white slave while fellating Putin and redlining blacks out of Queens.
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If that happens I am writing in Scooby :D
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Handyman said:
you ignore that Donald destroyed the competition for your party. You have no one to blame but yourself.
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My lord, just how thick-headed are you, anyway?

I am not a Republican. For most of my life, I was a centrist Democrat in the tradition of JFK, LBJ, Richard M Daley, Sam Nunn, Bill Clinton (solely for his politics, not for his personal, um, peccadillos), Joe Lieberman. in 1976, I volunteered for Jimmy Carter and actively campaigned for him.

Since 2000, the Democrats have moved so far left, they deserted me. Al Gore is a twit and John Kerry, well.....

I like free markets and having the government be the servant of the people.

These leftists today are about people being subservient to government in a state-run economy with no free markets at all. I find the insistence on uniformity and the suppression of any and all dissent from the official line to be repugnant. I think Clinton's solicitation of "donations" from foreign companies and foreign governments was corruption on a grand scale.

Neither political party today cares about regular people; it is a disgusting mess of insider trading and favor swapping.

the better question is, why are you so enthusiastic for more of the same slop?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

BassAle said:
Old white people don't vote early because they don't have anything better to do on election day. Plus that's the way they've always done it.

I've seen some analysis showing that higher D turn out for early voting doesn't translate to a final higher turnout for a bunch of states.
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That is true but the numbers dont show that in Nevada which is what Rover is talking about. With the lead Hillary already has Drumpf would need to win the vast vast majority of the rest to take the state and that just isnt likely.

Rover is over the top...but he does not appear to be wrong when it comes to Nevada.

The problem with 538 (and it isnt a problem it just shows why it is kind of not relevant right now) is that we have actual votes to count and he leaves them out. (for obvious reasons) So while random polls maybe be throwing Nevada pink the actual votes are showing Nevada is Blue and you can say that (according to the named pollster) because 2/3 of the state has voted and her numbers so far have surpassed even Obamas.

(yes the caveat still holds that we can only go by the affiliations of who voted)
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

FreshFish said:
the better question is, why are you so enthusiastic for more of the same slop?
Click to expand...

1. Because one party has decided that blacks don't deserve to vote.
2. Because one party has decided that the 85% of Americans who want background checks are idiots.
3. Because one party has decided that trickle down economics works.
4. Because one party has decided that passing laws making it harder for poor women to get the Health Care they need is good social policy.
5. Because one party has decided that building a wall and making millions of people criminals serves the public good.
7. Because one party actually decided the Constitution needed changing so certain Americans couldn't get married.

That's why.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Who. Shows. Up.

We know who already has shown up.
Who still will still controls this outcome.
And I'm not willing to make predictions on that.

Who. Shows. Up.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

First bombshell, if you can cal it that, today is that the verdict in Bridgegate is in.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

ScoobyDoo said:
It's such BS too. Obama and Clinton are both Centrists. It's his party that moved the needle.
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He just told you that he was a volunteer staffer with Carter's campaign. Do you really want to phrase your disdain in such a manner?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

St. Clown said:
He just told you that he was a volunteer staffer with Carter's campaign. Do you really want to phrase your disdain in such a manner?
Click to expand...

Don't care. I know what posts come from that account.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Kepler said:
A little good news. All six 538 models (3 for pres, 3 for Senate) have now reversed slope and show the good guys pulling out of their dive, at approximately 67% likelihood of victory.

Momentum in this race, at least in the polls, has consisted of broad, dramatic, cyclical bounces and crashes for Hillary {oscillating between 60% and 90%} and the D Senate {65%, 75%}. If we have ended the last crash the next bounce should carry well beyond Election Day. Also, neither Hillary nor the D Senate aggregate has ever trailed in the period since early voting began, so if that is to be believed when all the votes are counted it will be a sum of a series of all positive numbers which must by definition be positive.

OTOH, if there are dynamics in this election that break traditional modeling, none of the polling will mean a darn thing.

What we are coming down to is not whether the lines cross late, but whether the polling itself is fundamentally sound.
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I think what you are seeing is that, much like Nate said over the weekend, we know enough about these candidates that the BS noise is really having zero effect. Each candidate has a range and they have kind of stuck to it since mid summer. The problem the GOP has always had is that Drumpf's highs are not high enough even against Hillary's lows. It is close (usually around 3 points) but outside of an outlier poll he never actually makes up the ground. Even when Nate is fatalistic about Hillary he admits that there is not likely scenario where she wins the Popular vote and loses the election. He has to win the PV to have any shot at winning the EV. (and he still could lose)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

French Rage said:
This is pretty much it. If this were any other election, you would look at the polls and feel much more comfortable about a Clinton victory, given that the polls show a notable but not huge lead. Something about this cycle, though, makes it hard to trust the polls 100%; and by that, I mean in both directions, not just in the pro-Trump direction. Additionally, the range of various states is weird this time around. Normally if AZ was R+1%, you would figure FL and OH would be in the bag for D. Recently though it looks like all 3 are clustered very close together. It could be that in the end this one is not the different than other elections, and the talk of it being so is media hype to get more ratings, but we'll see.
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What do AZ and FL have in common? High numbers of Latinos. Who has Drumpf targeted his hatred at the most consistently?

The states are close because the Whites are being offset...
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

FreshFish said:
My lord, just how thick-headed are you, anyway?

I am not a Republican. For most of my life, I was a centrist Democrat in the tradition of JFK, LBJ, Richard M Daley, Sam Nunn, Bill Clinton (solely for his politics, not for his personal, um, peccadillos), Joe Lieberman. in 1976, I volunteered for Jimmy Carter and actively campaigned for him.

Since 2000, the Democrats have moved so far left, they deserted me. Al Gore is a twit and John Kerry, well.....

I like free markets and having the government be the servant of the people.

These leftists today are about people being subservient to government in a state-run economy with no free markets at all. I find the insistence on uniformity and the suppression of any and all dissent from the official line to be repugnant. I think Clinton's solicitation of "donations" from foreign companies and foreign governments was corruption on a grand scale.

Neither political party today cares about regular people; it is a disgusting mess of insider trading and favor swapping.

the better question is, why are you so enthusiastic for more of the same slop?
Click to expand...

Just keep telling yourself that botboy.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

ScoobyDoo said:
1. Because one party has decided that blacks don't deserve to vote.
2. Because one party has decided that the 85% of Americans who want background checks are idiots.
3. Because one party has decided that trickle down economics works.
4. Because one party has decided that passing laws making it harder for poor women to get the Health Care they need is good social policy.
5. Because one party has decided that building a wall and making millions of people criminals serves the public good.
7. Because one party actually decided the Constitution needed changing so certain Americans couldn't get married.

That's why.
Click to expand...

Dont forget:

8. Because one party has decided that their job is to block any Supreme Court nominee who isnt put up by an R

The GOP is a joke.

(and yes if the Dems pulled that crap I would rip them to...do your job)
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

St. Clown said:
Unless the bombshell release shows Donnie Orange Tones holding a gun during a snuff film, what could be more outrageous than the things we already know?
Click to expand...

Donated to the United Negro College Fund. That would be a double hit on his supporters. Destroy their morale.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Handyman said:
Dont forget:

8. Because one party has decided that their job is to block any Supreme Court nominee who isnt put up by an R

The GOP is a joke.
Click to expand...

Good point. Can't believe I forgot that one.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIV: Both candidates are the same, but here's why yours is aw

Susan Sarandon shows a glimmer ...

Sarandon ... calling Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump "untrustable."

"I think we’ve been voting the lesser of two evils for too long. The good news is everybody’s so frustrated that at least we’re awake.”
Click to expand...

A-a-a-and ... it's gone.

Sarandon on Monday endorsed Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
Click to expand...
 
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