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Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

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J

joecct

Well-known member
The way the posts are coming (going) this one will fill up before 11/8.

Have at it. I'll see you at the start of Thread XXIV.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

but dismiss out of hand the very idea that the Clinton's could be affected by $30 million dollars in just the last couple years deposited in their personal accounts
Click to expand...

Pretty sure no one is doing this.

Pretty sure that anyone will tell you, whatever the effect it might have, pales in the comparison to the alternative.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

The Sicatoka said:
Meanwhile, in the rest of the free (for now) world ...

Britain sends hundreds of soldiers and tanks to Russian border in biggest military deployment since Cold War
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/britain-sends-hundreds-soldiers-tanks-9130051
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This is perfect for Hils. When Trump goes she'll be in the spotlight all alone and no doubt the brain trust will want to Wag the Dog a little to sneak her off the stage.

Let's see... Near Estonia? I bet Podesta is googling pharmaceutical factories in Novgorod right now!
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

rufus said:
Pretty sure no one is doing this.

Pretty sure that anyone will tell you, whatever the effect it might have, pales in the comparison to the alternative.
Click to expand...

He just ignores the fact that most of us spent the entire primary season ripping her for crap like that cause it doesnt back up his hypothesis...

burd,

The gf's father is from Springfield...went there two Christmas' ago and thought it was quite cool. I highly recommend it...though the drive sucks.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Scarlet said:
This is what worries me.
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That would maybe be a worry if the third party candidates could do anything but they cant. Moore is fear mongering to make sure people vote.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

ExileOnDaytonStreet said:
But it makes me wonder how the polls are not showing any hint of this.
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I HAVE heard (internet, so take it for what it's worth) both major parties will hang up if you declare you are not of their party, thereby going against the party that is calling, and therefore your "vote" is not registered in the polls.

It makes sense on the surface, but that is also in tinfoil territory.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Yeah but that is just internal party polling...national polls dont do that because their bread and butter is trying to read the tea leaves of what the undecideds or non-affiliateds will do. So while technically what you are hearing may be correct, it has exactly zero to do with why every major poll outside of 3 have Hillary winning by a decent margin.

Basically, what you heard is a load of crap that is irrelevant and completely misguided. It would be like saying Vegas sets the lines on the NFL games based on how people bet on random NHL teams. One has zero to do with the other.

Look, I know some on the Right are really desperate (like the ones posting crap like that on FB) and they want to convince people this isnt over so they cling to anything they can. In part they have to because they need to protect the down ticket races in each state and if their base thinks they are screwed (or outright hate Drumpf) they are going to stay home. They are covering their ***...as they should. It is completely transparent though...hell half the Faux commentators are talking about how it isnt looking good. The ones who arent are spinning it anyway they can. The fact that Hillary is leading in Arizona for example and campaigning there trying to run up the numbers doesnt mean she is in the drivers seat, it means she is cocky and vulnerable and just maybe her internal numbers arent as good as the pundits think they are. That is like saying "The Patriots arent going to win because they are better than the Browns in every conceivable way...and their fans are cocky and overconfident and obviously looking past them". When Megyn Kelly or Chris Wallace ask KellyAnne Conway why she thinks her candidate can win despite being behind even in the Faux News Poll (you know...fair and balanced) her only response is "well Hillary doesnt have 50%!'. Well that is true, but if Donald only has 40% she doesnt need 50% to win...its like trying to belittle the World Series Champ because they were a Wild Card team instead of the Division Champ...it is a complete and total spin job.

And you see the problem is, many of these people live in their own little world, Drumpf included. He and his staff think that because 10k white people show up to a rally he has in a generally GOP district that shows he obviously is resonating with the rest of the population. The fact that no Black people are there (except Whites holding signs saying their Blacks for Drumpf) or Latinos or Arabs and the female turnout is low doesnt register with them they only see who they want to see. It is the same stupid mistake they made in 2012...they assume that because their supporters are loud and showing up that everyone is loud and showing up for them and it just isnt true. When they get trounced in two weeks there wont be anyone at Faux outside of Lou Dobbs and Sean Hannity (and maybe that Bolling dude who looks like a date rapist) who will be surprised and saying it is rigged. Then they (Dobbs and the Drumpgfers) will take their cushy job at Drumpf TV and will make millions ripping President Hillary. Megyn Kelly will laugh in their faces (she has been for months...its funny to watch her facepalm in almost every interview she has with a Drumpfer) and Wallace will rip Drumpf a new one. Hell Wallace disagreed with Bill O'Reilly on THE FACTOR when Bill tried to make it sound like Donald and Hillary were equally as loathed and terrible at the Catholic Dinner last week and he pulled no punches about the debate either.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Handyman said:
Yeah but that is just internal party polling...national polls dont do that because their bread and butter is trying to read the tea leaves of what the undecideds or non-affiliateds will do. So while technically what you are hearing may be correct, it has exactly zero to do with why every major poll outside of 3 have Hillary winning by a decent margin.

Basically, what you heard is a load of crap that is irrelevant and completely misguided. It would be like saying Vegas sets the lines on the NFL games based on how people bet on random NHL teams. One has zero to do with the other.

Look, I know some on the Right are really desperate (like the ones posting crap like that on FB) and they want to convince people this isnt over so they cling to anything they can. In part they have to because they need to protect the down ticket races in each state and if their base thinks they are screwed (or outright hate Drumpf) they are going to stay home. They are covering their ***...as they should. It is completely transparent though...hell half the Faux commentators are talking about how it isnt looking good. The ones who arent are spinning it anyway they can. The fact that Hillary is leading in Arizona for example and campaigning there trying to run up the numbers doesnt mean she is in the drivers seat, it means she is cocky and vulnerable and just maybe her internal numbers arent as good as the pundits think they are. That is like saying "The Patriots arent going to win because they are better than the Browns in every conceivable way...and their fans are cocky and overconfident and obviously looking past them". When Megyn Kelly or Chris Wallace ask KellyAnne Conway why she thinks her candidate can win despite being behind even in the Faux News Poll (you know...fair and balanced) her only response is "well Hillary doesnt have 50%!'. Well that is true, but if Donald only has 40% she doesnt need 50% to win...its like trying to belittle the World Series Champ because they were a Wild Card team instead of the Division Champ...it is a complete and total spin job.

And you see the problem is, many of these people live in their own little world, Drumpf included. He and his staff think that because 10k white people show up to a rally he has in a generally GOP district that shows he obviously is resonating with the rest of the population. The fact that no Black people are there (except Whites holding signs saying their Blacks for Drumpf) or Latinos or Arabs and the female turnout is low doesnt register with them they only see who they want to see. It is the same stupid mistake they made in 2012...they assume that because their supporters are loud and showing up that everyone is loud and showing up for them and it just isnt true. When they get trounced in two weeks there wont be anyone at Faux outside of Lou Dobbs and Sean Hannity (and maybe that Bolling dude who looks like a date rapist) who will be surprised and saying it is rigged. Then they will take their cushy job at Drumpf TV and will make millions ripping President Hillary. Megyn Kelly will laugh in their faces (she has been for months...its funny to watch her facepalm in almost every interview she has with a Drumpfer) and Wallace will rip Drumpf a new one. Hell Wallace disagreed with Bill O'Reilly on THE FACTOR when Bill tried to make it sound like Donald and Hillary were equally as loathed and terrible at the Catholic Dinner last week and he pulled no punches about the debate either.
Click to expand...

The underlined is coming from both sides. Just saying. But I understand your overall point.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Handyman said:
Yeah but that is just internal party polling...national polls dont do that because their bread and butter is trying to read the tea leaves of what the undecideds or non-affiliateds will do. So while technically what you are hearing may be correct, it has exactly zero to do with why every major poll outside of 3 have Hillary winning by a decent margin.

Basically, what you heard is a load of crap that is irrelevant and completely misguided. It would be like saying Vegas sets the lines on the NFL games based on how people bet on random NHL teams. One has zero to do with the other.

Look, I know some on the Right are really desperate (like the ones posting crap like that on FB) and they want to convince people this isnt over so they cling to anything they can. In part they have to because they need to protect the down ticket races in each state and if their base thinks they are screwed (or outright hate Drumpf) they are going to stay home. They are covering their ***...as they should. It is completely transparent though...hell half the Faux commentators are talking about how it isnt looking good. The ones who arent are spinning it anyway they can. The fact that Hillary is leading in Arizona for example and campaigning there trying to run up the numbers doesnt mean she is in the drivers seat, it means she is cocky and vulnerable and just maybe her internal numbers arent as good as the pundits think they are. That is like saying "The Patriots arent going to win because they are better than the Browns in every conceivable way...and their fans are cocky and overconfident and obviously looking past them". When Megyn Kelly or Chris Wallace ask KellyAnne Conway why she thinks her candidate can win despite being behind even in the Faux News Poll (you know...fair and balanced) her only response is "well Hillary doesnt have 50%!'. Well that is true, but if Donald only has 40% she doesnt need 50% to win...its like trying to belittle the World Series Champ because they were a Wild Card team instead of the Division Champ...it is a complete and total spin job.

And you see the problem is, many of these people live in their own little world, Drumpf included. He and his staff think that because 10k white people show up to a rally he has in a generally GOP district that shows he obviously is resonating with the rest of the population. The fact that no Black people are there (except Whites holding signs saying their Blacks for Drumpf) or Latinos or Arabs and the female turnout is low doesnt register with them they only see who they want to see. It is the same stupid mistake they made in 2012...they assume that because their supporters are loud and showing up that everyone is loud and showing up for them and it just isnt true. When they get trounced in two weeks there wont be anyone at Faux outside of Lou Dobbs and Sean Hannity (and maybe that Bolling dude who looks like a date rapist) who will be surprised and saying it is rigged. Then they (Dobbs and the Drumpgfers) will take their cushy job at Drumpf TV and will make millions ripping President Hillary. Megyn Kelly will laugh in their faces (she has been for months...its funny to watch her facepalm in almost every interview she has with a Drumpfer) and Wallace will rip Drumpf a new one. Hell Wallace disagreed with Bill O'Reilly on THE FACTOR when Bill tried to make it sound like Donald and Hillary were equally as loathed and terrible at the Catholic Dinner last week and he pulled no punches about the debate either.
Click to expand...

I am interested in your views and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

The parties are fighting overconfidence and despair, respectively. The polling says the presidential election is a blowout, so all strategy turns to GOTV for downballot. This will be the first election in a long time where there is a non-trivial amount of ticket-splitting, as sane Republicans refuse to vote for the Orange Autocrat but then vote straight ticket R downballot.

The drag on turnout caused by a known presidential outcome would typically cancel equally, but Trump has no ground effort and has given the finger to the NRSC and NRCC, so theoretically the bottom could fall out on them.

Hillary will win. A terrible day for the Dems means they fail to take the Senate. A terrible day for the Orcs means they wind up within a couple auto-triggered recounts of losing the House.
 
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