Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

If 1-5 are all accurate then I'm a Democrat for life.

Join the club.

Barring an operating room mistake which removes my ability to empathize and gives me a one hundred million dollar pay out, I have no choice. Even if the GOP pulled its head from its rectum on science and fact, it would still be merely a vehicle for tax evasion by and corporate welfare for the wealthy. They are an auto veto forever.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Survey Monkey (C+ by Nate's standards) is hilarious. Among today's poll results:

FL, tie
NH, Clinton +13
NV, Trump +2
TX, tie
GA, Clinton +6

Yeah, I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess not all of those things can be true simultaneously.

I have no idea re: survey monkey's methodology. But its a basic internet polling platform. And unless there was some amazing sampling gymnastics, assume its super biased (in theory for Clinton...in reality, who knows).

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

I have no idea survey monkey's methodology. But its a basic internet polling platform. And unless there was some amazing sampling gymnastics, assume its super biased (in theory for Clinton...in reality, who knows).

Those scores are after Nate corrects for house effects.

It's so bizarre I am a little surprised he even allows them in. I think it's because they run 100 state polls a week and for many states those are the only polls he gets, which plays heck with his model.

The sheer number of polls is amazing now. IINM when Nate ran his first presidential polling in 2004 he had 50 national polls. At some point this week we will pass 1000 national polls for this cycle.

 

[jerphisch]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

despite Obama having generally similar success on getting judicial noms through as Bush did.

Uhhhh not exactly....Bush's nominees were approved through his entire term, while Obama's have been at a stand still for about a year and a half.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Uhhhh not exactly....Bush's nominees were approved through his entire term, while Obama's have been at a stand still for about a year and a half.

This is where joe's belief falls apart. There is no evidence that the Dems will mirror McCain's threat to block every SCOTUS nominee and no past track record of such activity.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

This is where joe's belief falls apart. There is no evidence that the Dems will mirror McCain's threat to block every SCOTUS nominee and no past track record of such activity.

Clarence Thomas got approved. That gives the GOP no reason to whine for at least the next 500 years.

 

[French Rage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Clarence Thomas got approved. That gives the GOP no reason to whine for at least the next 500 years.

No, they're still upset that the guy who carried out the Saturday Night Massacre was somehow not seen as qualified for the highest judicial position in the nation.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

No, they're still upset that the guy who carried out the Saturday Night Massacre was somehow not seen as qualified for the highest judicial position in the nation.

Can you imagine the Supreme Court with him and Thomas both on it. Oy Vey.

 

[bronconick]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

I'm pretty sure that Ryan's Presidential ambitions have been torpedoed this fall, but if Trump is still around and kicking in 2020, he'll run again just to give him the Jeb Bush treatment.

 

[MaizeRage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

I don't think this will happen by 2020. I think we'll get another Trump clone who will also start the race behind the 8 ball. But, with the rabid base continuing the dwindle as a result of their age, the GOP will eventually adapt. They'll have no choice. Every year there's less and less GOP leaners because their average age is 70.

There are still a lot of wildcards to be dealt out before 2020. There's a good chance 1.8 million truck drivers are out of work before the next presidential election, and that's basically the last middle-class job that doesn't require a college education. Add in families and related jobs and you're talking about a good chunk of voters. Part of this reason this election is going to be such a blowout is that things aren't nearly as bad as Trump likes to claim, but in four years, people may be a lot less principled if they don't have the same economic security.

 

[walrus]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

There are still a lot of wildcards to be dealt out before 2020. There's a good chance 1.8 million truck drivers are out of work before the next presidential election, and that's basically the last middle-class job that doesn't require a college education. Add in families and related jobs and you're talking about a good chunk of voters. Part of this reason this election is going to be such a blowout is that things aren't nearly as bad as Trump likes to claim, but in four years, people may be a lot less principled if they don't have the same economic security.

whats going to happen to 1.8 million trucking jobs?

 

[burd]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

I know the fear-mongering label gets tiresome, but who was the last important GOP figure who really attempted to move people by inspiring them to positive action?

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

I know the fear-mongering label gets tiresome, but who was the last important GOP figure who really attempted to move people by inspiring them to positive action?

Dole was the last candidate who did. Last important was George Bush Sr. As soon as Newt came to power the gloves were off and common sense was gone.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

I love the talk of Trump running again in 2020. There is absolutely no way. The man is 70 years old, this election cycle has been incredibly taxing, and Howard Dean told me he's on cocaine.

A man of his health probably has an LE of around 70-75 if he were born today. And that might be pushing it.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Dole was the last candidate who did. Last important was George Bush Sr. As soon as Newt came to power the gloves were off and common sense was gone.

I think you could make an argument for late 90s early 2000s McCain. Maybe. I've been told I'm impossibly young so I don't have much of a memory past the mid-90s.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

I know the fear-mongering label gets tiresome, but who was the last important GOP figure who really attempted to move people by inspiring them to positive action?

St. Ronald of Cielo.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

whats going to happen to 1.8 million trucking jobs?

Selfdriving vehicles. I don't buy four years myself, but certainly within the next decade or two.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

I work in the trucking industry...there is about 0% chance there is self driving Dock or Semi Trucks by 2020.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Uhhhh not exactly....Bush's nominees were approved through his entire term, while Obama's have been at a stand still for about a year and a half.

Great, but the the post responds to Kepler envisioning an upcoming Dem majority in the Senate nuking SCOTUS noms, and references Dems invoking the nuclear option and eliminating filibuster against judicial and executive branch nominees in November 2013, at which time the following was the situation:

Obama won Senate confirmation for 30 out of 42 federal appeals court nominations, compared with Bush's 35 out of 52.[63][64]
Regarding Obama's federal district court nominations, the Senate approved 143 out of 173 as of November 2013, compared to George W. Bush's first term 170 of 179, Bill Clinton's first term 170 of 198, and George H.W. Bush's 150 of 195.[63][65] Filibusters were used on 20 Obama nominations to U.S. District Court positions,[66] but Republicans had allowed confirmation of 19 out of the 20 even before the nuclear option was invoked.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

I know the fear-mongering label gets tiresome, but who was the last important GOP figure who really attempted to move people by inspiring them to positive action?

I would say the W administration in the 2000s. No doubt there was also fear mongering (i.e., Iraq). But they did try to lead the country domestically. Depends on your POV, you might not consider that 'positive'.

The point is valid, the GOP is very fast to resort to its recent semi permanent state of total opposition.