Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

[burd]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

You would then have to change the entire IRS tax code because a person may no longer be self-employed.

It is indeed a strange and wonderful world seen through your eyes, isn't it, flaggy. Do you do this without chemical aids?

On a more somber note, how will you be able to tell when dementia starts creeping in.

 

[GrinCDXX]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

What's the reputation of the LA Times/USC poll? They seem to be consistently an outlier for Trump, having him solidy at +6/+7 for the last few days, when the other national polls don't seem to be close to that (for example, a cluster were around Hillary +1/+2 last Wednesday, and LA/USC was +5).

Other state polls today show Clinton tied/+1 in FL and Trump only +3 in GA. It's hard to imagine Trump only +3 in Georgia but running away with it nationally.

Nate Silver blogged about that one.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

What's the reputation of the LA Times/USC poll? They seem to be consistently an outlier for Trump, having him solidy at +6/+7 for the last few days, when the other national polls don't seem to be close to that (for example, a cluster were around Hillary +1/+2 last Wednesday, and LA/USC was +5).

Other state polls today show Clinton tied/+1 in FL and Trump only +3 in GA. It's hard to imagine Trump only +3 in Georgia but running away with it nationally.

Sorta why I think all the polling is a little screwy as pollsters try to get their likely voter model right. FWIW likely voters tend to converge with registered voters over time. I've seen polls of Trump up 5 in Ohio...but only up 6 in Texas??? Obviously that makes no sense. Likewise a poll just came out with Hillary up +8 in PA, but maybe Emerson had her up 3 in...Rhode Island? None of this makes much sense, and it does no good to aggregate them right now given the lack of any discernible pattern. Is the whole country up for grabs? Of course not. In pollsters defense its a little tough polling around Labor Day, and this is most of their first crack at likely voters since most were using registered voters in August.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

I was unaware of 538 before this election cycle (credit Kep).

It's stunning how far that's moved from Philly (DNC) to now.

Quite frankly, it looks like "so goes PA, so goes the election."

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

I was unaware of 538 before this election cycle (credit Kep).

It's stunning how far that's moved from Philly (DNC) to now.

Quite frankly, it looks like "so goes PA, so goes the election."

Trump may have the more difficult path but there are still many of them. He's opened up a lot of States that weren't open before. At the same time he's put many states in jeopardy that weren't in jeopardy before. I don't think PA locks it for either candidate.

 

[rufus]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

I agree with getting rid of illegals, no matter what country they come from.
I agree that politics has to change, and become free from outside business influence.

Basic ideas. What Trump's solutions are, they scare me.

You want business out of politics, so let's elect the businessman. Sounds good to me.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Trump may have the more difficult path but there are still many of them. He's opened up a lot of States that weren't open before. At the same time he's put many states in jeopardy that weren't in jeopardy before. I don't think PA locks it for either candidate.

I suspect the map right now on 538 will look very much like what'll look like about 11 pm Eastern on Nov 8 with the exception of PA.

 

[aparch]

I was unaware of 538 before this election cycle (credit Kep).

It's stunning how far that's moved from Philly (DNC) to now.

Quite frankly, it looks like "so goes PA, so goes the election."

The man behind it ran the numbers for some time for other news agencies/blogs for... Over a decade? I know he was in full swing in 2008 for the NYTimes. I want to say he had some hand in 2004 also. It wasn't until the last few years that he got his own website.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

I was unaware of 538 before this election cycle (credit Kep).

It's stunning how far that's moved from Philly (DNC) to now.

Quite frankly, it looks like "so goes PA, so goes the election."

Not necessarily. For PA to be the deciding state Trump has to already have won OH, FL and NC. Put another way, he needs to go 4 for 4 (OH, FL, NC, PA). She needs to go 1 for 4.

 

[rufus]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

The GOP primary was a rejection of the we'll promise X to get elected, but do Y once we get there. tD somehow picked up on those feelings and ran with them.

.

Yeah. trump ran with "I'll promise X to you, and over here, X1 to you, and to you guys over here, X2, and X3 and X4 and X5.............................And just trust me, we're gonna do all of them, cause I said so".

Like he's a great businessman, cause he says so.

 

[BassAle]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/gary-johnson-hurt-nyc-minn-attacks-article-1.2796970

Gary Johnson is glad no one was hurt in the NYC and Minnesota attacks...

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Not necessarily. For PA to be the deciding state Trump has to already have won OH, FL and NC. Put another way, he needs to go 4 for 4 (OH, FL, NC, PA). She needs to go 1 for 4.

And all (4) states are just as likely to go all in for him as not. And he has a couple other states in play as well. Wisconsin being one. Michigan being another.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Not necessarily. For PA to be the deciding state Trump has to already have won OH, FL and NC. Put another way, he needs to go 4 for 4 (OH, FL, NC, PA). She needs to go 1 for 4.

And I'm saying Clinton going 1 for 4 is far from unthinkable right now. And it's not far from 1 for 4 to have a day "on the schneid."

I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's gone from impossible to "how many ways could it happen".

(Does that make me a Disciple of Scoob? I will not adopt his college hockey philosophies. No Goofs, none of the time.)

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Like he's a great businessman, cause he says so.

"I'm an expert witness, because I say I am."

 

[BassAle]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

And all (4) states are just as likely to go all in for him as not. And he has a couple other states in play as well. Wisconsin being one. Michigan being another.

District 2 in Maine went 53%-44% in favor of Obama over Romney (ME-2 is the more rural conservative district. Obama won ME-1 by something like 60%-38%). At this point Trump is winning ME-2. I can't believe how far to the right ME-2 has gone over the last 8 years. The tea-party really took hold here. It's embarrassing.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

District 2 in Maine went 53%-44% in favor of Obama over Romney (ME-2 is the more rural conservative district. Obama won ME-1 by something like 60%-38%). At this point Trump is winning ME-2. I can't believe how far to the right ME-2 has gone over the last 8 years. The tea-party really took hold here. It's embarrassing.

Trump has got Maine locked up I bet.
He's getting Iowa.

What's this about Hillary being a lock?

 

[unofan]

The man behind it ran the numbers for some time for other news agencies/blogs for... Over a decade? I know he was in full swing in 2008 for the NYTimes. I want to say he had some hand in 2004 also. It wasn't until the last few years that he got his own website.

He did 2008 as his own site after being a moneyball guy in baseball for awhile. He signed a deal with the NYT for the midterms and 2012. He then left to partner with ESPN and ABC for this cycle because they're letting him expand back into sports and pop culture.

 

[rufus]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

You're being too specific. What it always comes down to is does the person that I'm going to give money to have the power or ability to help me in some way? If so, then I'm going to give them the money.

This where I think we've gone wrong in this country.

At first blush, I think most people agree with Handy. Bribing an AG to drop a lawsuit sounds so much more horrible than Goldman giving HRC a bunch of money as a "contribution" or whatever you want to call it. But is it really? It's a single lawsuit. The AG may or may not have even won the lawsuit had it proceeded, since there are no certainties in litigation.

But what has been the effect of powerful banking and financial influence on politicians? Our problem has been that we, as the public, react the same way as Handy. Our response is just that the politician has just "sold out" or something morally reproachable like that, and not that they are literally accepting bribes. In fact, we even pass laws regulating the passing of these bribes in terms of limits, etc...

Personally I think campaign contributions ought to be outright banned. If an individual or corporation wants to spend their money campaigning for a politician, that's their right. But if you write a check to a politician or their family members or their business/foundation, we're going to be looking at you.

Which is why this whole hoopla over the Clinton Foundation is such a joke. If any kind of quid pro quo is going on, that's just business as usual in Washington. There's probably hundreds of other politicians/former politicians with the same kind of Foundations set up. Hell, Trump's" charity seems like it's only there for him to use as his personal bank.

And yet, people only get worked up about the Clintons. Because....................Clintons.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Which is why this whole hoopla over the Clinton Foundation is such a joke. If any kind of quid pro quo is going on, that's just business as usual in Washington. There's probably hundreds of other politicians/former politicians with the same kind of Foundations set up. Hell, Trump's" charity seems like it's only there for him to use as his personal bank.

And yet, people only get worked up about the Clintons. Because....................Clintons.

What I find most interesting about the whole Clinton Foundation thing is how open the books are. They disclose everything. I still haven't seen Trumps Tax Returns. And obviously based on the logical comparison of those two facts Clinton is a ****ing liar and Trump should be elected President.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Which is why this whole hoopla over the Clinton Foundation is such a joke. If any kind of quid pro quo is going on, that's just business as usual in Washington. There's probably hundreds of other politicians/former politicians with the same kind of Foundations set up. Hell, Trump's" charity seems like it's only there for him to use as his personal bank.

And yet, people only get worked up about the Clintons. Because....................Clintons.

This is the exact kind of thinking that is wrong. It is a problem. Just saying that "it's business as usual" simply perpetuates it.

It's funny, we prosecute companies here who are trying to buy influence in foreign countries to get contracts or government approval for something, but foreign (and domestic) companies do the same thing here and we're, "meh, business as usual."