Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes early

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Nate with some words of caution.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Remember, if we nuke the EC states won't matter at all. One might think the largest cities would be blanketed with ads and appearances, but not necessarily -- those cities tend to be highly partisan and so neither party will really be looking at much expected value there.

Suburban sprawl and smaller (whiter) cities is where most of the uptick will be, and that's not a bad thing -- it is after all where people live. And there are plenty of middle pop density places which get no attention now but which would if we went to straight vote: Cheyenne, Oklahoma City, Fort Worth, Anchorage, Boise are all ignored now because their states are locks. All of a sudden they'd become very interesting targets with lots of people up for grabs for both parties.

yeah, I just don't see this happening to the extent that you're figuring due to finite resources. Campaigns have enough trouble turning out voters as it is. If given the choice of maximizing the NYC vote or going out to East Podunk, you're going to NYC. Even Texas will be showered with attention from both parties as that's where the votes are and the media markets that you can reach the most people in, even if one party (the Dems in this case) aren't going to win the state. This will be done at the expense of voters in lower population places who might be more ideologically aligned to you.

Put it this way: I don't see a national popular vote as necessarily a better system than the one we have now, so why bother?

 

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Nate with some words of caution.

Typical of the polls to tighten as we move from the dog days of summer to the fall. But this time around I am worried. Beyond something bizarre out of the Obama camp, he wasn't going to lose in 08 or 12 no matter how the polls fluctuated. Clinton will see her lead evaporate with one serious terrorist attack perpetrated by a foreign radical radical element. And my guess is ISIS would rather have Trump as president because they welcome the war and violence his presidency would bring. Most Muslims want peace, and a respectful dialog between the West and Islam. But they ain't the ones driving the bus as far as the public is concerned. I don't know what the Clinton camp has planned for the stretch drive but I do know I don't like how the campaign has seemingly taken a step back in the recent weeks. Part of a candidates success is keeping the air of inevitability going strong and not letting the opponent pull their head above water and get a deep breath. Trumps orange head has resurfaced now and he might have enough air left in his lungs to make more noise than Clinton is banking on.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Typical of the polls to tighten as we move from the dog days of summer to the fall. But this time around I am worried. Beyond something bizarre out of the Obama camp, he wasn't going to lose in 08 or 12 no matter how the polls fluctuated. Clinton will see her lead evaporate with one serious terrorist attack perpetrated by a foreign radical radical element. And my guess is ISIS would rather have Trump as president because they welcome the war and violence his presidency would bring. Most Muslims want peace, and a respectful dialog between the West and Islam. But they ain't the ones driving the bus as far as the public is concerned. I don't know what the Clinton camp has planned for the stretch drive but I do know I don't like how the campaign has seemingly taken a step back in the recent weeks. Part of a candidates success is keeping the air of inevitability going strong and not letting the opponent pull their head above water and get a deep breath. Trumps orange head has resurfaced now and he might have enough air left in his lungs to make more noise than Clinton is banking on.

They definitely took their foot off the gas, assuming the more Trump spoke the more he'd fail. They didn't take into consideration that letting Hillary disappear into subterranean fundraisers left the entire field of portraying her to the media, which has been hacking away on the emails and the Foundation trying to find something juicy.

When she is out there she does fine, so they need to put her front and center more. I think they believe the debates are her moment to Finish Him, and they could be right, but anybody voting for Trump at this point has demonstrated they are not going to be swayed by intellectual differences on policy.

We could also use some very public campaigning against Trump by those conservatives who have endorsed Hillary to keep us from the jaws of fascism.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Part of a candidates success is keeping the air of inevitability going strong and not letting the opponent pull their head above water and get a deep breath. Trumps orange head has resurfaced now and he might have enough air left in his lungs to make more noise than Clinton is banking on.

This makes little sense. Mitt Romney had an air of inevitability coming out of the 1st debate so much so that the entire national press corps called the race a toss up. He lost by 4%, 5M votes and got crushed in electoral votes. I'll say the same thing to you as I say to Scoobs. If you guys are this nervous on Sept 1st about a race to be decided in Nov, what were you guys like when your kids were being born? Yikes.

Trump is losing every demographic expect for uneducated whites. He's losing minorities, college educated votes, women, and young voters. There's nobody else left so unless we all hop in a time machine and the 1984 electorate shows up, what are you whining about? The press has a vested financial interest in showing a close race. If you still believe the national press, god help you.

Some latest polls:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/09/01/state-poll-roundup-thursday-3/

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

If you still believe the national press, god help you.

I believe 538. The race is definitely tightening. It's only a question of whether that is the Dem convention bounce ending or something more substantial going on with support for Hillary.

The weird thing is, Trump isn't gaining. Nobody's gaining. 2 weeks ago it was Clinton 49 Trump 39 Johnson 9. Now it's Clinton 44 Trump 39 Johnson 9. Those 5 points just got thrown back in the hopper, they didn't stick to anybody.

 

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

This makes little sense. Mitt Romney had an air of inevitability coming out of the 1st debate so much so that the entire national press corps called the race a toss up. He lost by 4%, 5M votes and got crushed in electoral votes. I'll say the same thing to you as I say to Scoobs. If you guys are this nervous on Sept 1st about a race to be decided in Nov, what were you guys like when your kids were being born? Yikes.

Trump is losing every demographic expect for uneducated whites. He's losing minorities, college educated votes, women, and young voters. There's nobody else left so unless we all hop in a time machine and the 1984 electorate shows up, what are you whining about? The press has a vested financial interest in showing a close race. If you still believe the national press, god help you.

Some latest polls:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/09/01/state-poll-roundup-thursday-3/

I have a very good understanding of the press' motivation in all of this. I spent the first half of my working life in the media and know what drives what they do. But just because their motives may not be in purely providing voters of useful information does not mean the information they provide is inaccurate. I also said I understand the general nature of polls is to tighten at this stage and historically that is true. 538.com is -- or should be -- respected for what they do and the way they showcase information. The race has tightened every day for the last few weeks according to their reporting.

My guess also is the available polling data is underreporting Trump's support. Robo-polls as anexample are showing more support for Trump than polls with live questioning, and no, not all robo-polls are suspect. Some use accepted standards and methodology of questioning. I still believe though that Clinton will win. Some -- like you apparently? -- believe though that this race is all but over and that Clinton's seeming lead in most demographic areas is insurmountable. I think this is completely wrong, and this election will be far closer than most of us want to see, in large part I would imagine because most of us are distressed by the picture it paints of our country and our society.

We've been taught for years that in polite company one does not use racial epithets, or similar words and phrases. So when you stick a microphone in someone's face, or when a living breathing person asks a question, you may not reveal your true feelings. It's evident to most people that those who do not support Trump are suspect of Trump's motivation and also suspect of the open-mindedness of his supporters. If you hate black people and brown people you might not want the world to know that. I guarantee that someone all of us are close to that we don't think of as bigoted hates the bejeezus out of anyone who talks with an "accent", has a hard to pronounce name or has skin a bit darker than theirs. The reverse of this is almost never true though. How many people do any of us know that we believe to be bigots (based on things we see them do or hear them say all the time) are not, in fact, bigots? I'm telling you there is far more support for Trump, or at least for the hate he espouses, than you can accurately measure. This election is different than any in our recent history.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

I believe 538. The race is definitely tightening. It's only a question of whether that is the Dem convention bounce ending or something more substantial going on with support for Hillary.

The weird thing is, Trump isn't gaining. Nobody's gaining. 2 weeks ago it was Clinton 49 Trump 39 Johnson 9. Now it's Clinton 44 Trump 39 Johnson 9. Those 5 points just got thrown back in the hopper, they didn't stick to anybody.

Kep, the race isn't tightening. Trump is on target to suffer a McCain like loss (6-7%) same as he always was. 538 is reliant on national polling. National polling, done by the media, has a vested interest in a close race. Its real easy to change your assumptions of the voter pool to get a closer race.

So, let me enlighten you with some Rover Truths. First as you astutely pointed out, Trump's #'s are going nowhere. He's constantly stuck in the low 40's because that's near his ceiling. The way to bring down Hillary is to widen the pool of voters to include people who know who the hell Johnson, Stein, and McMullen are. Or to include people not very likely to actually vote (hence the undecided increase).

Johnson will do better than most 3rd party candidates but he's not going to reach near double digits. Stein may get 2% due to disaffected Sandernistas but they most likely weren't voting for either major party candidate anyway.

So far all the blathering and Nervous Nellie-ism, the race is pretty much where its always been. A roughly 5-6% Hillary advantage with any further increase depending on how strong non-white voter participation is. If you want to see signs to panic about look for the following:

1) Trump starts getting close to 50% nationally.
2) Trump starts winning educated voters by at least Romney levels.
3) Trump starts putting away Red states by out of margin of error levels in composite polling (NC, GA, AZ, MO, SC)
4) Trump is ahead in enough blue states to give him a plausible electoral path (he'll need PA, FL, OH for starters)

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Trump has another fun supporter.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Kep, the race isn't tightening. Trump is on target to suffer a McCain like loss (6-7%) same as he always was. 538 is reliant on national polling. National polling, done by the media, has a vested interest in a close race. Its real easy to change your assumptions of the voter pool to get a closer race.

That doesn't explain the tightening in all the state polls. Or are those rigged too?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

With Donald at Nuremburg.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

That doesn't explain the tightening in all the state polls. Or are those rigged too?

Kep, again pollsters are constantly adjusting their models as they try to predict a Nov result in August. There's nothing necessarily nefarious about it, but you're missing the forest for the trees. You tell me what states you're now worried about Trump winning that you weren't 10 days ago. Don't like putting you on the spot, but if you insist...

Beyond that, that ND dude seemed to think I consider this race to be over. I don't although its going to take several kick a ss debate performances for Trump to turn this around. Where I see this race currently is a cross between 2008 and 2012 if today's #'s hold until Nov. Hillary won't win states like IN or a razor thin loss in MO like Obama did. I don't see her taking NE-1 either. She is however in little danger of losing any Obama '12 states with the possible exception of IA. On the flip side she's poised to capture NC.

A 6% victory nets 7 Senate seats (IL, WI, PA, NH, IN*, NC, FL) and 20 House seats. As things stand now Portman and McCain hang on.

But, back to you. Where do you see her losing Kep?

* Indiana senate seat is a special case not as related to the Presidential outcome as the other seats

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Kep, again pollsters are constantly adjusting their models as they try to predict a Nov result in August. There's nothing necessarily nefarious about it, but you're missing the forest for the trees. You tell me what states you're now worried about Trump winning that you weren't 10 days ago. Don't like putting you on the spot, but if you insist...

I think you need to read Nate and Harry's notes on 538 poll methodology. It's the best there is out there and it is extremely sophisticated and methodologically sound. The criticisms you are making don't really address the sampling and predictive issues involved.

You're bringing socio-political arguments to a math test, which sounds eerily like the conservatives' "unskewing the polls" malarky in 2012. If the model is flawed it's flawed due to issues of statistical goodness of fit.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

But, back to you. Where do you see her losing Kep?

If she continues to erode more or less across the board due to unpopularity and untrustworthiness, the states should drop off in order of her current margin. In the past few weeks several states have moved into the loss column: GA and AZ, which were always a reach, then NE-2, ME-2, which were toss-up. But now the rot has now claimed states that were the final buffer before we got into the hard purples: NC and IA. She's running out of margin for error. The next states would logically be: OH, FL, NV. After that: NH and the election.

Two weeks ago she was 8 states past the fulcrum. Now it's 4. She'd still win if the election was today, but it aint and she's moving in the wrong direction.

Obviously she can pull out of it and I believe she will. I believe the debates will be her competent, knowledgeable adult vs Trump's sniveling, ignorant teenager. But in many ways that was Gore v Dubya, and we saw there that a huge chunk of this country never left high school and instinctively fears the smarter candidate.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

I think you need to read Nate and harry's notes on 538 poll methodology. It's the best there is out there and it is extremely sophisticated and methodologically sound. The criticisms you are making don't really address the sampling and predictive issues involved.

You're bringing socio-political arguments to a math test, which sounds eerily like the conservatives' "unskewing the polls" malarky in 2012. If the model is flawed it's flawed due to issues of statistical goodness of fit.

With all due respect Kep, this is a dodge. I asked you a simple question. What states are you now worried about that you previously weren't?

My problem isn't with nate at all. He does a stellar job but 3 months out he's at the mercy of widely fluctuating polling which he can't do much about. My position has remained the same. A poll showing Hillary with a 10 point lead is absurd. A poll showing Trump tied is absurd. Given how well known both of these people are, and no new news about either of them that we didn't already know about, the race is in actuality remarkable static. A lets call it a roughly 5-6% Hillary lead.

Now since I've laid my cards on the table, perhaps you'd care to as well?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

With all due respect Kep, this is a dodge. I asked you a simple question. What states are you now worried about that you previously weren't?

If there's one thing you should probably have noticed by now, Rover, it's that I don't dodge. I don't prevaricate or lawyer points and I loathe being accused of that.

 

[unofan]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

And Rover has gone full on unskewedpolls.com. Wow.

If the stakes were lower, I'd be tempted to vote Trump just to make Rover eat crow...

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

If she continues to erode more or less across the board due to unpopularity and untrustworthiness, the states should drop off in order of her current margin. In the past few weeks several states have moved into the loss column: GA and AZ, which were always a reach, then NE-2, ME-2, which were toss-up. But now the rot has now claimed states that were the final buffer before we got into the hard purples: NC and IA. She's running out of margin for error. The next states would logically be: OH, FL, NV. After that: NH and the election.

Two weeks ago she was 8 states past the fulcrum. Now it's 4. She'd still win if the election was today, but it aint and she's moving in the wrong direction.

Let me politely say this is patently absurd and we'll agree to disagree.

And Rover has gone full on unskewedpolls.com. Wow.

If the stakes were lower, I'd be tempted to vote Trump just to make Rover eat crow...

I'm sorry, but what state am I showing a Hillary victory in that she's currently losing?

EDIT: So I'm the one unskewering polls when his own campaign is telling him his path to 270 is running out. Huh...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/01/u...nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=2

 

[SonofSouthie]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Several major Latino surrogates for Donald Trump are reconsidering their support for him following the Republican nominee’s hardline speech on immigration Wednesday night.

Jacob Monty, a member of Trump’s National Hispanic Advisory Council, quickly resigned after the speech. Another member, Ramiro Pena, a Texas pastor, said Trump's speech likely cost him the election and said he'd have to reconsider being part of a "scam." And Alfonso Aguilar, the president of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, said in an interview that he is “inclined” to pull his support.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-hispanic-leaders-arizona-immigration-227615

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

And Rover has gone full on unskewedpolls.com. Wow.

If the stakes were lower, I'd be tempted to vote Trump just to make Rover eat crow...

It might happen and you won't even have to do that. Rover is drinking a lot of Kool-Aid. But, hey, I'm stupid so don't listen to me.