Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

[alfablue]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

In order to win their respective primaries, both Clinton and Trump combined to receive only 9% of the total vote when compared to the average turnout rate of the general election. That's why crazy candidates stand a chance at winning the primaries.

On a related, but side note, I heard one of the BLM organizers realize how important local elections are, compared to national ones. Which means coming out to oddball primaries (we have one tomorrow).

Not sure if that will take hold, or if anyone in any party will realize how important it is to participate at all times and not just November... But it's one person's view of it.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

At some point GOP surrogates like Rasmussen and Fox will start biasing their samples in favor of Democrats to try to astroturf this impression.

I suspect a left leaning Twin Cities Star Tribune jazzed the results putting Romney close in the final days of the last election only to have him dump gobs of cash into the state and still get throttled.

 

[BassAle]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

RCP No Toss Up Poll Map.

Delta from 2012: AZ, NC to Clinton, FL, ME2 to Trump.

uggg ME2 to Trump... how embarrassing for me (I live in a blue area in red ME2)

But then again, EVERY state is a red state. Some of those red states have large enough blue cities to tilt the state towards the Dems. If other states could split up EV by congressional district, then plenty of 'blue states' would throw a couple EVs towards Trump. ME splitting the electoral votes lets the more rural, poor, and conservative ME2 throw one EV towards the republicans (although the split-EV scenario has never happened). The tea-bagger movement really seems to have resonated with ME2, which brought an end to nearly half a century of Democrat domination of the Maine senate and house. It's possible those nuts could also bring ME2 over to Trump. The republicans tried to redraw Maine's districts to move Lewiston from ME2 to ME1 to make ME2 even more rural and therefore more likely to go R, but that effort was shot down -- the final redistricting ended up only swapping a few small towns around to balance out the districts. If that had happened, it would be even more likely for <E2 to go Trump.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Not sure if that will take hold, or if anyone in any party will realize how important it is to participate at all times and not just November...

Groups that already know this and execute to it: NRA members, politically active fundamentalists, AARP members.

Those groups have amazing GOTV. I had a GF from IA who used to be active in state and local politics. She said it was not unusual for precincts to get 50% turnout of NRA members at the caucus! Statewide the IA caucus averages around 20%.

If your interest group is voting 2.5x its proportionality and it's already big, you are going to get a lot of what you want. Just imagine what the Democratic party would look like if say Occupy sent 50% of their people to the polls in state and local elections.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

It's been stated in here before that the left won't stay home because of the Supreme Court and the right won't stay home for the same reason. I have a hard time believing this won't be a huge voter turnout election the way the Republicans have set things up.

I happen to agree with this. Were there a less toxic GOP candidate, someone like Grampa George H W Bush, I could see Dems staying home. Its a little hard to be indifferent if you're a lefty and Trump is a distinct possibility. People like seeing pompous rich guys getting kicked in the teeth. This is the ultimate opportunity for Hispanics, Women, Gold Star Families, etc etc to humiliate Trump on the biggest stage there is. I doubt they're going to let that opportunity pass them by...

 

[aparch]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

I thought someone posted the link in this thread, but there was an interesting article about how rural America views Trump as a close friend just like them, but only he's at the top.

Wait, nope, it was a NYPost article I saw after perusing Kepler's link to their weekend cover...

http://nypost.com/2016/07/30/why-white-trash-americans-are-flocking-to-donald-trump/

In hillbilly country, a code of honor runs so deep that if you casually call a man a son of a *****, he’ll beat you senseless for the implied insult to his mother. But then you wouldn’t call the police because you figured you deserved to get a licking. Trump’s me-against-everybody combativeness, his refusal to back down, his vows to disrupt Washington deal-making are giving the hillbilly class a feeling they haven’t had in decades: that they’ve got a friend at the top.

 

[aparch]

This completely depends upon voter turnout. I could see the left not showing up because they think Shrillary has it in the bag. Meanwhile, I could see a substantial number of usually Republican voters staying home or leaving off their presidential vote while casting the rest of their ballots because, hey, it's Donald friggin' Trump. That's the only way this election stays close, but it'll still end with a Clinton win.

I don't get the same feeling. A lot of "Solid Blue" states are mostly red states with the largest cities holding the Dem votes. Michigan is red other than Detroit and Flint. Illinois is red except for the City of Chicago. Minnesota is red except for the Twin Cities, Duluth and the Iron Range. Ohio can thank Cleveland, Toledo, Columbus, Dayton, and Cincinnati for being a blue state when the rest is red. Pittsburgh and Allentown carried the Dems last time in a solid red state. Washington was blue thanks to the Puget Sound. Nevada went blue only thanks to Henderson County and Washoe counties.

If any of these cities stumble in securing a Democrat for their state, it's a Trump presidency for us.


What I fear is that the apathy will set in. 2008 brought about "new" voters who voted for Obama (mostly in those dense urban voting areas). With some of those "new" voters not being interested in either candidate, they may shy away from voting.

Then you have the third party candidates siphoning off votes for both candidates. Not quite Perot or Wallace numbers, but enough to potentially swing a state.


This is going to be our Brexit. We got fair warning from the UK to not let the election be close "to send a message" because it backfired. And we're following right in their footsteps.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

I thought someone posted the link in this thread, but there was an interesting article about how rural America views Trump as a close friend just like them, but only he's at the top.

Wait, nope, it was a NYPost article I saw after perusing Kepler's link to their weekend cover...

http://nypost.com/2016/07/30/why-white-trash-americans-are-flocking-to-donald-trump/

Same source:

“Humans appear to have some need to look down on someone; there’s just a basic tribalistic impulse in all of us,” Vance recently told The American Conservative. “And if you’re an elite white professional, working-class whites are an easy target: You don’t have to feel guilty for being a racist or a xenophobe. By looking down on the hillbilly, you can get that high of self-righteousness and superiority without violating any of the moral norms of your own tribe.”

 

[unofan]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Clinton's convention bounce has her back in front by roughly 5 points, but I'll wait til I start seeing some battleground polls before I really breathe a little easier.

 

[aparch]

Same source:

Yep. I found it to be an interesting article; and one where I can see similarities to many of the areas I grew up. Same dying industry towns, same mentality through the generations.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

What I fear is that the apathy will set in. 2008 brought about "new" voters who voted for Obama (mostly in those dense urban voting areas). With some of those "new" voters not being interested in either candidate, they may shy away from voting.

I'll say it again: this election is all about who shows up at the polls; more specifically, who are you going to vote against (not for).

I don't see the highly energized group that got Mr. Obama to the White House nearly as energized for Mrs. Clinton. Can they be mobilized to show up to vote against Mr. Trump? I don't know; I do know the anti-Mrs. Clinton folks are lining up already.

 

[unofan]

I'll say it again: this election is all about who shows up at the polls; more specifically, who are you going to vote against (not for).

I don't see the highly energized group that got Mr. Obama to the White House nearly as energized for Mrs. Clinton. Can they be mobilized to show up to vote against Mr. Trump? I don't know; I do know the anti-Mrs. Clinton folks are lining up already.

Because there are a ton of pro-Clinton people in North Dakota for you to personally observe...

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Same source:

This works the opposite way, too. Country mouse hates city mouse just like city mouse hates country mouse.

 

[BassAle]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Doh! I said the tea bagger revolution ended a nearly half decade of democrat dominance of the Maine house and senate. Obviously I meant half-century!

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

I don't see the highly energized group that got Mr. Obama to the White House nearly as energized for Mrs. Clinton. Can they be mobilized to show up to vote against Mr. Trump? I don't know; I do know the anti-Mrs. Clinton folks are lining up already.

True enough on the anti-Clinton folks. They have been snarling for another chance to shiv Bill and Hillary since the impeachment backfired.

But they used to be a lot thicker on the ground. It's been 18 years since Dennis "Model Moral Citizen" Hastert was stoking the coals and oiling the rack. A large portion of the mob tailgating and whoopin' it up that day have passed on to the great roadhouse in the sky.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

The 2008 election isn't the model to follow. The 2012 one is. This isn't a hope and change election. Its a continue Obamaism vs GOP tax cuts for billionaires and Talibanesque social policies. So, would I expect Hillary to hit the record 70M that Obama got in 08? No. Will she get the 66M he got in 2012? Sure. Trump's stuck at the 60-61M of Bush II-McCain-Mittens. There's no way he can eek out an electoral college win if he loses the popular vote by 5M.

 

[MaizeRage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

It's been 18 years since Dennis "Model Moral Citizen" Hastert was stoking the coals and oiling the rack.

That's disgusting. Flagged and reported.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

So, would I expect Hillary to hit the record 70M that Obama got in 08? No.

Hopefully she does. The voting age population went up 5.3M between 2008 and 2012. Say it goes up another 5M in 2016, for a total of 10M since 2008.

At 2012 turnout rates (55%) we're looking at 132M votes cast. In other words, the VAP has grown so much that a 2012 turnout in 2016 will produce a 2008 total of votes.

She'd need 66M just to get to 50%, so let's hope she gets to 70M.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Hopefully she does. The voting age population went up 5.3M between 2008 and 2012. Say it goes up another 5M in 2016, for a total of 10M since 2008. Obama got 70 of 131. Clinton needs 70M just to get to 50% in 2016.

Yeah, but how many times in the past 40 years has the winner of the presidential election actually received more than 50% of the popular vote?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Yeah, but how many times in the past 40 years has the winner of the presidential election actually received more than 50% of the popular vote?

Without looking it up I would guess all but 68, 80, 92, and 96, so about 9 elections of 13. Also, it's usually obvious ahead of time when a third party candidate is going to perform well (Wallace, Anderson, Perot). This year might be such a year, but we don't really have any indication yet. (Weirdly, this year Trump is kinda the third party candidate.)

I looked it up. Let's include 1960. It's 8 of 13 elections. I forgot 1960 and 2000, and I incorrectly credited 1980.