Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Hey, its cool. Jeb = W's 3rd term. I didn't expect the guy to help us out in making that case, but kudos to him for doing so.

It may work out perfectly, because a lot of GOPers are in denial that the Cheney Presidency was a complete disaster, giving Jeb a clean pass to the nomination. I don't think the general electorate will have much trouble making that distinction, but this will be a test of the American attention span: can they remember the 8-year long ineptitude of Dubya's ostensible term?

Reassure me that Hillary won't find a way to ef this up. Admittedly, so far she has been saying the right things and she seems to have learned a lot from being taken to the woodshed in 2008. If she picks a liberal like Brown or Castro as veep, I would feel a lot more comfortable.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

It may work out perfectly, because a lot of GOPers are in denial that the Cheney Presidency was a complete disaster, giving Jeb a clean pass to the nomination. I don't think the general electorate will have much trouble making that distinction, but this will be a test of the American attention span: can they remember the 8-year long ineptitude of Dubya's ostensible term?

Reassure me that Hillary won't find a way to ef this up. Admittedly, so far she has been saying the right things and she seems to have learned a lot from being taken to the woodshed in 2008.

Pay attention to who she surrounds herself with. If I start seeing Gov MacAuliff signing on as an advisor and Bob Shrum as an unpaid consultant I'm right behind you in running for the hills! One thing she needs to do more is get back to her First Lady persona where she'd call out Republicans for their idiocy. Her time in the Senate dulled her edge a little bit, but its time to get that back.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Pay attention to who she surrounds herself with. If I start seeing Gov MacAuliff signing on as an advisor and Bob Shrum as an unpaid consultant I'm right behind you in running for the hills!

I'm worried that her finance team will be the same old recycled Larry Summers / Robert Rubin / Tim Geitner Goldman fifth column. Gary Gensler sounds terrible. Here's Bernie during his confirmation hearing for under secretary for domestic finance:

I cannot support his nomination. Mr. Gensler worked with Sen. Phil Gramm and Alan Greenspan to exempt credit default swaps from regulation, which led to the collapse of A.I.G. and has resulted in the largest taxpayer bailout in U.S. history. He supported Gramm-Leach-Bliley, which allowed banks like Citigroup to become “too big to fail.” He worked to deregulate electronic energy trading, which led to the downfall of Enron and the spike in energy prices. At this moment in our history, we need an independent leader who will help create a new culture in the financial marketplace and move us away from the greed, recklessness and illegal behavior which has caused so much harm to our economy.

Make Bernie Treasury Secretary and Warren Secretary of Labor.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

F No! Warren stays in Senate, not some useless job like Secretary of Labor. Sanders running the CFPB after he decides to retire would be a nice fit.

But you bring up a good point. I'd love to see a spot for Howard Dean in a potential Hillary administration. Schneiderman in NY as AG for example as well, etc.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

I'm worried that her finance team will be the same old recycled Larry Summers / Robert Rubin / Tim Geitner Goldman fifth column. Gary Gensler sounds terrible. Here's Bernie during his confirmation hearing for under secretary for domestic finance:



Make Bernie Treasury Secretary and Warren Secretary of Labor.

So you're admitting that Obama may get another term? After all, he's ripped up a lot of the Constitution already; what's one more amendment?

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

OK...not big on the source. But for the first time, Bush is leading Clinton in a national poll (Fox). And America still really hasn't met Jeb yet. I think several of us have been warning of this for months now.

Although its avoidable, I also think we've seen the one issue that could torpedo Jeb...support for his brother.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

F No! Warren stays in Senate, not some useless job like Secretary of Labor.

I actually think Warren is better suited for the executive department than the legislative. She's a born policy wonk. If she stays in the Senate I'd like to see her in a high profile leadership position. She's that rare liberal who is able to articulate our principles and actually reach people, and I want her out in front with a mic as much as possible. Typically, our side just can't believe people can't look at the data for themselves and figure it out. Plus our leadership has been hopelessly compromised by their corporatist connections: even though Nancy was oddly effective, she's hardly going to bite the hand that feeds her, and if and when Schumer takes over we'll be missing Harry's comparative "populism."

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

OK...not big on the source. But for the first time, Bush is leading Clinton in a national poll (Fox). And America still really hasn't met Jeb yet. I think several of us have been warning of this for months now.

Although its avoidable, I also think we've seen the one issue that could torpedo Jeb...support for his brother.

Assuming Fox is simply acting in its customary role as the propaganda arm of the GOP, this fits in with their aim of derailing Hillary in the primaries -- they are running a half dozen stories every day with concern troll themes about liberals objecting to Hillary, the Democratic party splitting, dogs and cats living together, etc. They obviously don't want Hillary as the nominee, and I trust them on domestic politics to the same extent I trust RT to report on Putin.

But even if their numbers were legit, polls this far out are a matter of the Bush name vs the Clinton name and mean nothing. They may as well run a poll, "who will you vote for 2076: Charlotte Mezvinsky or Margaret Hagar?

 

[joecct]

F No! Warren stays in Senate, not some useless job like Secretary of Labor. Sanders running the CFPB after he decides to retire would be a nice fit.

But you bring up a good point. I'd love to see a spot for Howard Dean in a potential Hillary administration. Schneiderman in NY as AG for example as well, etc.

Depends on how cynical you are. If the corporate masters want to fully neutralize her, make her the VP. No way they want her in charge of policy.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

This is great.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) would win the Texas military takeover conspiracy theory vote if the Republican primary were held today, according to a poll released Wednesday.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Assuming Fox is simply acting in its customary role as the propaganda arm of the GOP, this fits in with their aim of derailing Hillary in the primaries -- they are running a half dozen stories every day with concern troll themes about liberals objecting to Hillary, the Democratic party splitting, dogs and cats living together, etc. They obviously don't want Hillary as the nominee, and I trust them on domestic politics to the same extent I trust RT to report on Putin.

But even if their numbers were legit, polls this far out are a matter of the Bush name vs the Clinton name and mean nothing. They may as well run a poll, "who will you vote for 2076: Charlotte Mezvinsky or Margaret Hagar?

Its an odd day when you're only the 2nd biggest nervous nelly on the board. .

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Its an odd day when you're only the 2nd biggest nervous nelly on the board. .

I've never been nervous about Hillary. I just hate her.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Assuming Fox is simply acting in its customary role as the propaganda arm of the GOP, this fits in with their aim of derailing Hillary in the primaries -- they are running a half dozen stories every day with concern troll themes about liberals objecting to Hillary, the Democratic party splitting, dogs and cats living together, etc. They obviously don't want Hillary as the nominee, and I trust them on domestic politics to the same extent I trust RT to report on Putin.

But even if their numbers were legit, polls this far out are a matter of the Bush name vs the Clinton name and mean nothing. They may as well run a poll, "who will you vote for 2076: Charlotte Mezvinsky or Margaret Hagar?

Not so sure about this. Fox has been at one end of the spectrum. But that doesn't mean they're off by 10%+. Jeb is in the mix.

Also, there is in fact more than family names here. Outside of Obama, Hillary has probably the highest awareness of any current US politician, probably as high as Obama in July 2008, and one of the highest awareness' of any past or present living pol that's not a president/ex president. And due to 2008, she's more publically vetted than any other candidate on either side. BTW, if its not Jeb...who has a better chance at the nomination? Sometimes things are as they appear to be.

To date, things are unfolding the way one would expect. The real question remains...will Jeb torpedo his candidacy by trying to be honest while navigating his brother's legacy.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

5mn, a quick look at their polling methodology will show you that they have a narrower gap between turnout by Dem/GOP/Indys than the last two elections. Small wonder Jebby looks better. Now mind you, if it so happens that Republican do end up tightening the turnout gap in 2016, then they're in a much stronger position. However, much like the now ill-advised Romney campaign notion that minorities would not only halt their +2% increase of the total electorate in 2012, but would actually revert to 2004 levels, I'm not sure I see any justification for making these assumptions at this point in time.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

The real question remains...will Jeb torpedo his candidacy by trying to be honest while navigating his brother's legacy.

I don't think this is his worry in the primary. You can win a Republican primary by wearing a flag pin and grunting "Me murder many Muslims!" Whether that will affect turnout in the general is to be determined.

Democrats win the presidency by pretending they'll do the things they won't. Republicans win by pretending they won't do the things they will. Jeb is going to have a hard time pivoting from He Man McJihad in the knuck primaries to someone who won't freak out the country that he plans to launch another oil war.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

God help me for saying this, but the GOP is better off with a guy like Walker than Bush.

Bush represents the worst of both worlds for the Republicans. The base doesn't like him and while they'll turn out they'll do so with one hand holding their nostrils closed. He's unalterably linked to the worst Presidency in modern times, even by conservative standards (massive spending, massive debt, govt takeovers, privacy violations). He represents the 1%, born with a silver spoon in his mouth, do as he pleased because his daddy would bail him out stereotype right down to the letter. He hasn't held office for almost a decade nor run a campaign in nearly 15 years.

Now contrast that with Walker. No Bush Presidency baggage. Won more elections than any other governor in the field. Wasn't born into the 1%. Fresh face on the scene who can contrast that vs Hillary Clinton. Now he obviously needs to prove his mettle during the rigors of a campaign when the Dems will be coming at him with both guns blazing, but frankly so does Jeb. Bush's biggest real asset beyond the ability to raise money (which frankly any GOP is going to be able to do) is the notion that he gives the best chance of winning Florida, the most crucial state for the GOP next year. Fine, but a Walker-Rubio ticket probably gives you a similar chance without the aforementioned baggage.

So Bush = Romney results plus maybe FL
Cruz/Paul = McCain results (losing all swing states and maybe a couple of unexpected ones)
Walker = ??? Holds the Romney states, plus WI and the possibility of IA/OH/FL depending on campaign/VP pick. Problem is you can only pick Portman/Kasich in OH, or Rubio on FL. My recommendation would be to go after FL.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

5mn, a quick look at their polling methodology will show you that they have a narrower gap between turnout by Dem/GOP/Indys than the last two elections. Small wonder Jebby looks better. Now mind you, if it so happens that Republican do end up tightening the turnout gap in 2016, then they're in a much stronger position. However, much like the now ill-advised Romney campaign notion that minorities would not only halt their +2% increase of the total electorate in 2012, but would actually revert to 2004 levels, I'm not sure I see any justification for making these assumptions at this point in time.

I agree. The numbers are on the dem side of the ledger...also the electoral college. But while I'd rather not see it...dem fatigue, complications in international policy and concerns of an aging first female president could change the base equation. The poll numbers don't mean Jeb is likely to win by 1%, but they mean a general trajectory towards awareness and a front runner position. I still don't feel Rubio, Walker, Christie are built to last (see Perry, Santorum).

I don't think this is his worry in the primary. You can win a Republican primary by wearing a flag pin and grunting "Me murder many Muslims!" Whether that will affect turnout in the general is to be determined.

Democrats win the presidency by pretending they'll do the things they won't. Republicans win by pretending they won't do the things they will. Jeb is going to have a hard time pivoting from He Man McJihad in the knuck primaries to someone who won't freak out the country that he plans to launch another oil war.

Again who knows. But I'm of the belief that next spring when push comes to shove...momentum will be behind the candidates that will be electable. Its an opinion, but I think there is just one on the GOP side. And I believe that the only factor significant enough to take Jeb completely out of the race a year out is the perception that he will be his brother. This strength is in part due to the weakness in the other candidates.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

I'm not sure whether there will be a consensus on "most electable." The rift between the corporate cons and the FlagDudeCons was papered over by mutual hatred of Obama (one of the reasons it was so energetically incited by the Echo Chamber). Will they be able to turn the same trick with Hillary? Obama's relative, if you'll pardon the expression, shadowiness helped the tub thumpers drum up anger and rage, but Hillary is the most tiredly known quantity this side of Madonna. Can anybody really get riled up about Whistler's great grandmother? What's the FEAR the GOP can fill their dingbats with? She may hit the button with her walker?

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Ivy Ziedrich, an American Patriot.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Ivy Ziedrich, an American Patriot.

Doesn't surprise me that a 19 year old student has a firmer grasp on history than Jeb. Neoconservativism doesn't admit its mistakes, it only demands more deaths.