Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

[unofan]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Saw my first Super PAC ad of the campaign today, an anti Rand Paul / Iran ad brought to you by the Committee for a Prosperous and Secure America.

Yay for living in Iowa.

Edit: Sorry. It's the Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America. Not sure how I could mess up a word salad like that...

edit 2: its website is even classier. http://www.secureandprosperous.com/ - I count at least 3 typos/grammatical errors in its one page.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Saw my first Super PAC ad of the campaign today, an anti Rand Paul / Iran ad brought to you by the Committee for a Prosperous and Secure America.

Yay for living in Iowa.

Yikes. I thought we were screwed (VA a battleground state, lots of inside baseball ads to prospective campaign staff and bundlers) but even we don't start up until around August. Good luck.

 

[WisconsinWildcard]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Maybe it's just my troubled libertarian logic, but it seems to me that the only way to 100% make sure that you are physically not going to have a baby is to not have sex.

Yes because clearly the only way to do anything is if there is a 100% chance of an outcome occurring.

What is also effective is putting your fingers in your ears and pretending that adolescents (as a population) have not only the ability, but the will to abstain from sex.

--Wipes hands---
Problem solved.

 

[WisconsinWildcard]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Vasectomy. Or tying of the tubes. While both procedures can technically fail, it's highly unlikely that they will.

Or an IUD. Or Implanon. Or even condoms if you are taught correctly by someone with even a casual relationship with reality.

 

[joecct]

Yes because clearly the only way to do anything is if there is a 100% chance of an outcome occurring.

What is also effective is putting your fingers in your ears and pretending that adolescents (as a population) have not only the ability, but the will to abstain from sex.

--Wipes hands---
Problem solved.

Physics is King and Biology is Queen and their rule is absolute.

Wishing will not make it so.

But to ignore the consequences is irresponsible.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

First lets get this out of the way!

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/hillarys-path-to-victory-116432.html (ducks Kepler's disapproving glare )

Second, there was a fascinating discussion on NPR last night where they had an Iowa conservative activist, a GOP pollster and some woman from the lamestream media on talking about the primaries. The gist of it was that each Republican who announces represents their own faction, but there doesn't seem to be a plan to broaden their appeal to either the other factions or the general electorate. Case in point nowhere apparently in the Cruz or Paul announcements was an emphasis on the economy, which is the primary concern of voters. The Activist guy, after trashing Bush and saying he has no support outside of the media (kudos for honesty ) stated that what suburban Chicago families want from a candidate is irrelevant right now. That's like a Final Four matchup when we're still in the round of 64. Rather its who appeals to the righties in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. This I think is a good point, but its also a fatal flaw in the GOP nominating process. You will have to go really hard right, or BE a fundie, to win these primaries and that screws you in the general. I think the lamestream media woman helpfully pointed out that the GOP has been outvoted 5 times since 1992 in Presidential elections. Simply put, people aren't on board with banning abortion even in the case of rape or incest (Paul and Cruz' positions), cutting taxes on the 1% (every GOP'ers position) or going back to war in the Middle East (Bush's position). I'm not sure how they get around all of that.

While I'm speculating on Uncle Joe Biden since again Hillary is most likely the nominee, if you read the article there's 18 states + DC that have voted Dem in the last 6 elections. I don't see him losing any of those, and that gets him 242 electoral votes. Add NM, NV, and NH which have all swung Dem more recently and he's now at 257. Any combo of Virginia, or Ohio, or Florida, or Colorado + Iowa, gets him over the top. A potted plant can get 250 votes for the Dems. I know this because we nominated one in 2004, and that's what he ended up with.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Obviously Hillary probably has the nomination wrapped up, but I think that would be so hilarious to run Joe Biden for President. It would be well worth it for the entertainment value alone to get him up on a stage. We should start up a groundswell of support for ol' Joe.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Obviously Hillary probably has the nomination wrapped up, but I think that would be so hilarious to run Joe Biden for President. It would be well worth it for the entertainment value alone to get him up on a stage. We should start up a groundswell of support for ol' Joe.

Not enough characters left in politics. Too many stiffs. I'd love to see him in a debate with Cruz/Paul/Walker, where they start in about doom and gloom and impending apocalypse, where Joe interrupts them and says have a beer and stop your ******ing.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

First lets get this out of the way!

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/hillarys-path-to-victory-116432.html (ducks Kepler's disapproving glare )

Second, there was a fascinating discussion on NPR last night where they had an Iowa conservative activist, a GOP pollster and some woman from the lamestream media on talking about the primaries. The gist of it was that each Republican who announces represents their own faction, but there doesn't seem to be a plan to broaden their appeal to either the other factions or the general electorate. Case in point nowhere apparently in the Cruz or Paul announcements was an emphasis on the economy, which is the primary concern of voters. The Activist guy, after trashing Bush and saying he has no support outside of the media (kudos for honesty ) stated that what suburban Chicago families want from a candidate is irrelevant right now. That's like a Final Four matchup when we're still in the round of 64. Rather its who appeals to the righties in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. This I think is a good point, but its also a fatal flaw in the GOP nominating process. You will have to go really hard right, or BE a fundie, to win these primaries and that screws you in the general. I think the lamestream media woman helpfully pointed out that the GOP has been outvoted 5 times since 1992 in Presidential elections. Simply put, people aren't on board with banning abortion even in the case of rape or incest (Paul and Cruz' positions), cutting taxes on the 1% (every GOP'ers position) or going back to war in the Middle East (Bush's position). I'm not sure how they get around all of that.

While I'm speculating on Uncle Joe Biden since again Hillary is most likely the nominee, if you read the article there's 18 states + DC that have voted Dem in the last 6 elections. I don't see him losing any of those, and that gets him 242 electoral votes. Add NM, NV, and NH which have all swung Dem more recently and he's now at 257. Any combo of Virginia, or Ohio, or Florida, or Colorado + Iowa, gets him over the top. A potted plant can get 250 votes for the Dems. I know this because we nominated one in 2004, and that's what he ended up with.

I'm not disapproving. Remember Betteridge's law.

I agree with the analyst re: the early GOP primary strategy: the key is to lock down your personal base. There will be time to expand later in primary season after the herd has thinned. Let's take a hypothetical theocon candidate (HTC). His job through Super Tuesday is to kill off all the other theocons. Resources are scarce early, so he shouldn't be spending any time slagging corporate cons or libertarians -- let those factions shake themselves out. Our HTC accomplishes nothing if he drives up his support marginally among those factions if he loses ground on his theocon rivals, not to mention that the emerging champion from those other factions will probably pull that support back by the mid-game.

Right now the non-joke candidates for the factions look like:

Corporate Con ("The 1% deserve more!"): Walker, Christie
Theocon ("Gays to the closet, women to the kitchen!"): Santorum, Cruz, Huckabee, Perry
Libertarian ("Taxation is theft!"): Rand, Ryan
Neocon ("Torture, torture, torture!!!"): Jeb, Rubio

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

This is why I think Paul has nowhere to go. He has no large base (libertarians are vocal but small), he's not from a key state or region, and he can't out run Cruz to the right or out crazy him which is saying something. Iowa + New Hampshire are going to decide his fate pretty quickly. If he can't with either of those, he most likely hangs around due to his father's network of activists in a lot of states and access to non-Aldersen/Koch/etc money, but he's toast for the nomination. The far right has too many other choices (Cruz/Walker) who come off as far less weird.

Leaving Iowa to the nutters (Walker/Cruz/Paul) to fight it out, I'm guessing Bush bypasses it altogether and concentrates on New Hampshire, which is going to be a super interesting primary. That is where both Paul and Bush need to make their stand. Somebody's going home desperate after those results come in.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

This is why I think Paul has nowhere to go. He has no large base (libertarians are vocal but small), he's not from a key state or region, and he can't out run Cruz to the right or out crazy him which is saying something. Iowa + New Hampshire are going to decide his fate pretty quickly. If he can't with either of those, he most likely hangs around due to his father's network of activists in a lot of states and access to non-Aldersen/Koch/etc money, but he's toast for the nomination. The far right has too many other choices (Cruz/Walker) who come off as far less weird.

Leaving Iowa to the nutters (Walker/Cruz/Paul) to fight it out, I'm guessing Bush bypasses it altogether and concentrates on New Hampshire, which is going to be a super interesting primary. That is where both Paul and Bush need to make their stand. Somebody's going home desperate after those results come in.

NH is fortunate for him -- that and Alaska are the closest a libertarian has to home field advantage. The numbnuts who tried to create that creepy monastic minarchy picked NH, and the whole "austere, no nonsense Granite Stater" schtick is a good optic (try to ignore it hasn't been true for 20 years, and NH is now home to fat ex-pat Bahstahn blue collars who resented having black neighbors).

The Pauls (Ron, Rand, and Ryan) are playing the long game -- they know libertarianism can never win a nomination as long as the Neocon-Corporate Con alliance controls the GOP. But the Dubya disaster almost destroyed both sides of that equation: the Neocons gave us the Forever War and the Corporate Cons gave us the Great Recession, and between them they ruined an entire generation of American lives. The Pauls are likely thinking that one more dance, say with Jeb, could kill off those factions as anything but fringe factors. (The theocons are obviously a decades-long factor in a country where a third of the population believes the Earth is 6000 years old.) A righty fight between libertarians and theocons, in an environment of a debt crisis and the complete discrediting of American imperialism, is a fight the libertarians can win. That's the gameplan. It's certainly their best shot. To get to it they need a Jeb or Rubio win in 2016 followed by another mistaken war (say, Syria?) and another bankster theft-driven collapse. Rand beats the GOP incumbent in the primaries, picks a Hispanic female VP, and the themesong of the inaugural ball is "Bastiat, Bastiat über alles."

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Corporate Con ("The 1% deserve more!"): Walker, Christie
Theocon ("Gays to the closet, women to the kitchen!"): Santorum, Cruz, Huckabee, Perry
Libertarian ("Taxation is theft!"): Rand, Ryan
Neocon ("Torture, torture, torture!!!"): Jeb, Rubio

Pretty close, except the vibe I get from Ryan is that he fancies himself to be a smooth blend of all four GOP barrelings, with a less specific rhetorical bite.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Vasectomy. Or tying of the tubes. While both procedures can technically fail, it's highly unlikely that they will.

Don't forget the sterilization that was practiced by Virginia in the 20th Century.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Yes because clearly the only way to do anything is if there is a 100% chance of an outcome occurring.

What is also effective is putting your fingers in your ears and pretending that adolescents (as a population) have not only the ability, but the will to abstain from sex.

--Wipes hands---
Problem solved.

Oh, the ability is there. The desire is certainly up for debate, especially when tweens are boasting about their virginity status.

Condoms sure as heck aren't 100%, as they can break. Same with birth control pills. Just like if you wanted your kids to not watch TV at home, throwing the TV set out the window is the most effective way to have them not watch it at home.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Kep, the problem is 99% of the population believes (correctly) that libertarians are lunatics. Rand Paul has the same chance I do of being elected President. Its not an ideology, its a cult. To quote PJ O'Rourke, "Everytime I think about voting Libertarian they come out with some proposal like privatizing the sidewalks".

Nothing the GOP can do in terms of self destruction will lead to a electoral victory for someone who wants civil rights to be a states rights issue, abolish entitlement plans, and give a massive tax giveaway to the rich that would make George W Bush blush. The guy's a nut. He's there for our amusement and little more.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Kep, the problem is 99% of the population believes (correctly) that libertarians are lunatics.

I still have some residual affection for small 'l' libertarianism. Lew Rockwell skewers the Neocons more succinctly and savagely than any socialist. Every libertarian over 25 I have met in person has indeed turned out to be a lunatic, but that may be selection bias (way too many of them worked at Hoover).

I also can't help suspecting that if Hayak were alive today, he'd consider the rise of multi-national corporations and the retreat of the 1% into physically and morally gated communities to be a superhighway to serfdom. There's a reason the patron saint of small government favored universal health care.

 

[TimP]

Libertarian ("Taxation is theft!"): Rand, Ryan

Kepler, did you just call Paul ryan a libertarian? The guy's got a 13% rating from the ACLU! Rolling Stone did a great profile of Paul Ryan right after RMoney mde him his running mate. Hint: he's another uber-christiian Bush puppet.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Kepler, did you just call Paul ryan a libertarian? The guy's got a 13% rating from the ACLU! Rolling Stone did a great profile of Paul Ryan right after RMoney mde him his running mate. Hint: he's another uber-christiian Bush puppet.

I was going by his statements during the 2012 campaign -- his younger adoration of Ayn "eat the poors" Rand and his budget, which hits all the usual libertarian notes.

I never got the impression he was a crazy Christian at all. He just seemed like a typical silver spoon fiscal conservative: "I've got mine, Jack, keep your hands offa my stack."

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Real libertarians are like traditional conservatives. They're basically unicorns. Creatures that exist in mythology and who everybody's heard of, but nobody's actually seen.

I'm sure Ryan gets killed in his ACLU ratings due to social issue legislation as well as Patriot Act issues. Like a lot of people, he's a libertarian by convenience when he wants to kill social programs, but not one when he wants to give goodies to the 1% and the fundies.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - It's never too late to start all over again!

Real libertarians are like traditional conservatives. They're basically unicorns. Creatures that exist in mythology and who everybody's heard of, but nobody's actually seen.

Nah, there's a lot of them out there. Granted, they don't hold elected office. Check out these guys. They basically scooped up all the libertarians from Cato when it went full Koch reeeeetaaaaaaard.