Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
I thought you were supposed to be rallying around Kasich?
I thought you were supposed to be rallying around Kasich?
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Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
- Thread starter joecct
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Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
Just tryin' to capture the spirit of the thing, Reg.
Just tryin' to capture the spirit of the thing, Reg.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
Kasich is showing as second in the polls, but way behind Mein Drumpf. There's a 15 point threshold for delegates -- Rubio might not make it.
Kasich is showing as second in the polls, but way behind Mein Drumpf. There's a 15 point threshold for delegates -- Rubio might not make it.
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
It seems hard for one guy to "rally." It feels more like a lonely voice in the wilderness. He apparently does have a less minuscule a chance than Bernie though, so maybe I'll do that.
Talked to my most liberal acquaintance, he said Bernie recently lost his (previously very enthusiastic) vote by saying "white people don't know what poverty is." Not sure if it's real, but sounds just stupidly racist on Bernie's part. Seems a bad time for senility to kick in.
It seems hard for one guy to "rally." It feels more like a lonely voice in the wilderness. He apparently does have a less minuscule a chance than Bernie though, so maybe I'll do that.
Talked to my most liberal acquaintance, he said Bernie recently lost his (previously very enthusiastic) vote by saying "white people don't know what poverty is." Not sure if it's real, but sounds just stupidly racist on Bernie's part. Seems a bad time for senility to kick in.
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Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
If you like what Bernie stands for, vote for him. The primary is the perfect time to make that sort of protest vote, since you aren't helping the orcs by doing it. Plus, if everybody does it, we get President Sanders. And after he catches cold walking to the inauguration we get President Castro.
If you like what Bernie stands for, vote for him. The primary is the perfect time to make that sort of protest vote, since you aren't helping the orcs by doing it. Plus, if everybody does it, we get President Sanders. And after he catches cold walking to the inauguration we get President Castro.
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
... talk about cold, man.
... talk about cold, man.
St. Clown
Ideas Posted are Likely Not My Own
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
You know, it is an interesting thought as to who Sanders would choose as a running mate. If he goes more liberal, he runs the risk of alienating the Democratic base, but if he goes more Shrill in his leanings, he could very well alienate his more liberal base. It seems to me that he'd have to cut the difference, find someone whose political stances are somewhere between his own and the Clinton Machine's.
You know, it is an interesting thought as to who Sanders would choose as a running mate. If he goes more liberal, he runs the risk of alienating the Democratic base, but if he goes more Shrill in his leanings, he could very well alienate his more liberal base. It seems to me that he'd have to cut the difference, find someone whose political stances are somewhere between his own and the Clinton Machine's.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
It would probably be something else, anyway.
It would probably be something else, anyway.
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
Dumb question- has anyone looked into the open primary as a reason Trump is getting so many votes?
The reason I ask- a while ago- Michigan's governor was up for re-election, and for some reason, the democratic party nominated a lawyer with a lot of ads on TV to run against him (and Engler was not exactly a great governor). I always suspected the R's in the state went into the polling booths and voted in the D primary just to nominate someone like Fieger.
One interesting thing to note- the news has told us to be wary of democratic turn out in November, as they have not been turning out. Even though there's a robust choice for them. Are they turning out to vote for Trump?
Dumb question- has anyone looked into the open primary as a reason Trump is getting so many votes?
The reason I ask- a while ago- Michigan's governor was up for re-election, and for some reason, the democratic party nominated a lawyer with a lot of ads on TV to run against him (and Engler was not exactly a great governor). I always suspected the R's in the state went into the polling booths and voted in the D primary just to nominate someone like Fieger.
One interesting thing to note- the news has told us to be wary of democratic turn out in November, as they have not been turning out. Even though there's a robust choice for them. Are they turning out to vote for Trump?
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
It's possible, and worth including in the exit polling to find out.
It's possible, and worth including in the exit polling to find out.
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
I'm sure the open primary helps him, but its not swing voters he's attracting. He's getting Tea partiers who don't want to be called "Republicans" anymore. In a closed primary they wouldn't be allowed to vote, but come November they are reliable GOP voters.
Your second point is an example where pundidiotry lives up to its name. Donald Trump isn't attracting new voters the way say Bernie Sanders is bringing in college aged voters who have never voted before or how Obama drove Dem registration to new heights in 2008. All Trump is doing is getting older white voters who used to blow off the primaries and wait for the general election to participate earlier because they're sick of being forced to back whatever The Establishment regurgitated up for them. Trump is telling them to get involved and help decide who gets the nod beforehand.
Dem turnout is down from 2008 because of 1) the Dems did a stellar job of attracting new people into the fold that year, and 2) No offense to Sanders fans but this race essentially ended when he got killed in South Carolina after losing Nevada. If he can't appeal to minorities for whatever reason he was always going to lose across the South which coupled with super delegates has made the contest almost out of reach unless something dramatic happens. Obama-Clinton was a closer race for delegates for a longer period of time.
Bottom line is, there are very few crossover votes anymore. Maybe mookie has seen some in his crosstabs, but any polling you see while watching The Hustler Channel probably isn't very reliable.
I'm sure the open primary helps him, but its not swing voters he's attracting. He's getting Tea partiers who don't want to be called "Republicans" anymore. In a closed primary they wouldn't be allowed to vote, but come November they are reliable GOP voters.
Your second point is an example where pundidiotry lives up to its name. Donald Trump isn't attracting new voters the way say Bernie Sanders is bringing in college aged voters who have never voted before or how Obama drove Dem registration to new heights in 2008. All Trump is doing is getting older white voters who used to blow off the primaries and wait for the general election to participate earlier because they're sick of being forced to back whatever The Establishment regurgitated up for them. Trump is telling them to get involved and help decide who gets the nod beforehand.
Dem turnout is down from 2008 because of 1) the Dems did a stellar job of attracting new people into the fold that year, and 2) No offense to Sanders fans but this race essentially ended when he got killed in South Carolina after losing Nevada. If he can't appeal to minorities for whatever reason he was always going to lose across the South which coupled with super delegates has made the contest almost out of reach unless something dramatic happens. Obama-Clinton was a closer race for delegates for a longer period of time.
Bottom line is, there are very few crossover votes anymore. Maybe mookie has seen some in his crosstabs, but any polling you see while watching The Hustler Channel probably isn't very reliable.
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
While there might be some Democrats voting in an open Republican primary to try to poison the GOP ticket with Trump, evidence seems to suggest a closed primary hurts Trump.
He did worse than polling suggested in Maine. Maine has something like 37% of registered voters unenrolled in a political party, 32% enrolled as Democrats, and 27% enrolled as Republicans. Some of that 37% supports Trump but was unable or unwilling to caucus for him (they can enroll in the party at the caucus). Despite going into Maine as the front runner, Trump was unable to get those supporters to caucus in sufficient numbers.
While there might be some Democrats voting in an open Republican primary to try to poison the GOP ticket with Trump, evidence seems to suggest a closed primary hurts Trump.
He did worse than polling suggested in Maine. Maine has something like 37% of registered voters unenrolled in a political party, 32% enrolled as Democrats, and 27% enrolled as Republicans. Some of that 37% supports Trump but was unable or unwilling to caucus for him (they can enroll in the party at the caucus). Despite going into Maine as the front runner, Trump was unable to get those supporters to caucus in sufficient numbers.
The Sicatoka
Kicizapi Cetan
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
Poor Bernie. His first choice died in 2013. He'd have gotten the Venezuelan vote with Hugo Chavez on the ticket.
Poor Bernie. His first choice died in 2013. He'd have gotten the Venezuelan vote with Hugo Chavez on the ticket.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
No offense but Bernie's first choice died in 1865.
No offense but Bernie's first choice died in 1865.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
Nice article to combat all the Muslim-bashing bombast.
Nice article to combat all the Muslim-bashing bombast.
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
Can you clarify what you mean a little more- your first line open primaries help and closed primaries hurt Trump is kind of my theory.
I understand your explanation that it appears that some of the un-affiliated voters like Trump, but I'm still thinking that for open primary states, where there's a big discrepancy between Democratic and Republican turn out that some of it may be explained by Democrats nominating a national version of Jeff Fieger. Especially when there's a pretty robust challenge going on for Democrats, in appearance.
Can you clarify what you mean a little more- your first line open primaries help and closed primaries hurt Trump is kind of my theory.
I understand your explanation that it appears that some of the un-affiliated voters like Trump, but I'm still thinking that for open primary states, where there's a big discrepancy between Democratic and Republican turn out that some of it may be explained by Democrats nominating a national version of Jeff Fieger. Especially when there's a pretty robust challenge going on for Democrats, in appearance.
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
Yes, sorry I meant to write
While there might be some Democrats voting in an open Republican primary to try to poison the GOP ticket with Trump, evidence seems to suggest a closed primary hurts Trump but not because it is excluding those votes.
So yes, a closed primary hurts Trump but not because it excludes people that are voting for him to poison the ticket. I believe it hurts more because it excludes a large number of Trump "True Believers". Tea parties like to fancy themselves as "independent" and often aren't enrolled in a party and can only participate in open primaries. I believe this because he significantly under performed polling in Maine, which suggests his supporters didn't show up. I would think he would be significantly out performing polling in open primary states if his strength was due mostly because of GOP ticket sabotage votes by Democrats.
Yes, sorry I meant to write
While there might be some Democrats voting in an open Republican primary to try to poison the GOP ticket with Trump, evidence seems to suggest a closed primary hurts Trump but not because it is excluding those votes.
So yes, a closed primary hurts Trump but not because it excludes people that are voting for him to poison the ticket. I believe it hurts more because it excludes a large number of Trump "True Believers". Tea parties like to fancy themselves as "independent" and often aren't enrolled in a party and can only participate in open primaries. I believe this because he significantly under performed polling in Maine, which suggests his supporters didn't show up. I would think he would be significantly out performing polling in open primary states if his strength was due mostly because of GOP ticket sabotage votes by Democrats.
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Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
Thanks.
And that brings up a rather interesting question for a seemly wanted scenario right now- the contested convention. If Trump wins the popular vote, but can't get to the required number of delegates, then what happens? The convention will not be populated with the independent Tea Partiers, it will be filled with main stream Republicans.
It's quite possible that the voters who were not registered R's can be very alienated by this process. And perhaps that will (finally) lead to a new party forming.
Thanks.
And that brings up a rather interesting question for a seemly wanted scenario right now- the contested convention. If Trump wins the popular vote, but can't get to the required number of delegates, then what happens? The convention will not be populated with the independent Tea Partiers, it will be filled with main stream Republicans.
It's quite possible that the voters who were not registered R's can be very alienated by this process. And perhaps that will (finally) lead to a new party forming.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Re: Campaign 2016 - in bridge, the trump cards are really wild.
Filed my protest against Drumpf. I figure Hill's a done deal, and I'd like to see convention chaos once in my lifetime, no matter how slim the odds.
Filed my protest against Drumpf. I figure Hill's a done deal, and I'd like to see convention chaos once in my lifetime, no matter how slim the odds.
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