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Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

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Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Our district judge candidates are so bad I'm writing in my wife.

Sounds much like my congressional district (NYS 23rd). I have a choice between an Rep who can't pay his taxes on time or maybe its ever (Reed) and a Dem (Robertson) who spends ~$200k of taxpayers money on a new county legislative chambers desk! Quality right there! At least for Governor, Comptroller, and AG there are other party choices. None of them great but choices none-the-less.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

if Republican women haven't gotten wise to what the GOP is all about by now, it's never going to happen.

This is exactly the dikish paternalistic attitude that drives conservative women and liberal blacks crazy. ("If black people actually were smart enough to know what was good for them...") Maybe they're already wise, in a way you're not seeing?
Why Good People Can Disagree
 
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Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

What would happen if no one voted? Is there a protocol for that?
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

This is exactly the dikish paternalistic attitude that drives conservative women and liberal blacks crazy. ("If black people actually were smart enough to know what was good for them...") Maybe they're already wise, in a way you're not seeing?
Why Good People Can Disagree

They are. They think they can marry rich and when they do then they want all that wonderful stuff they get.

See Bob McDonnell and his wife if you don't believe me.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

They are. They think they can marry rich and when they do then they want all that wonderful stuff they get.

See Bob McDonnell and his wife if you don't believe me.

How do you explain Mrs. geezer marrying someone who is dirt poor, less smart, and more liberal than she?
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

How do you explain Mrs. geezer marrying someone who is dirt poor, less smart, and more liberal than she?

It makes no sense biologically. Sadly it's probably either mental illness or very low self esteem.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

It makes no sense biologically. Sadly it's probably either mental illness or very low self esteem.

You mean "economically." Biology is actually the primary driving force here.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

The data says the opposite of pretty much everything you say here. The largest growing portion of the population is rural Latinos. They are particularly concentrated in all the Usual Suspect states: TX, LA, AL, MS, GA, FL, NC. (For some reason SC and TN missed out.) Just as Dems have "black belt" seats in the deep south and "brown belt" seats in TX, they are going to only get stronger in the rural districts those families settle in. Some first gens are intimidated by the local yokels but second gens aren't going to play that -- just like blacks became an important regional voting bloc in the south, Latinos are going to be VERY important in 20 years throughout most of the south.

The GOP also has a marginal return problem. Their base is far, far right, so when they produce a new generation there's nowhere for the distribution curve to go on the right side, so the median moves back towards the center. The Dems have virtually no hard left (met any actual communists lately?) so the normal distrib in their next generation still preserves the mean. The Dems had the same marginal problem in the 70s -- they were already pushed up against the window on their left, so their right wing fell into Reagan's hands.

All of this can be avoided if the Republicans have an internal realignment, but they won't: (1) until they get stung REALLY hard at the polls, the internal dynamics won't allow it, and (2) even then, the right has a problem the left did not -- a big part of its base is utterly immobile because it functionally equates voting with religious faith. Not only won't they move -- they won't allow the party to move either. We already see this "Fear of Apostasy" problem on immigration. Everybody in the GOP with an ounce of sense knows they have to cut the racist rhetoric. But everybody who got less than 90% in their last primary is terrified of somebody running to their right. So the short term profit for individuals is the long term devastation for the national party -- again, exactly what happened to the Dems in the 70s.

The final thing is this isn't your father's Democratic Party. Believe it or not (and I had a very hard time believing it), the Dems have actually got their act together for now. They over-performed in 2006, 08, and 12. They are going to perform at par in 14. (They did underperform in 2010, but I think they learned from it.) Eventually they'll fall apart again -- every heterogeneous coalition is unstable in the long term. But the GOP used to be able to sit back and wait for the Dem implosion. That just isn't happening anymore.
Here is the thing I find kind of funny.

What we know from Rover, Kepler, Rachel Maddow and the like is that Republicans are racists. They're crazy. They're are morbidly old. They are hypocrites. They're obstructionists, and incapable of governing. They are so far in the extreme it's not possible to go more extreme. And, something like only 25-30% of the population has a favorable opinion of the Republican party, and their policies.

They're going to win today? Who in the heck are they running against?
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Here is the thing I find kind of funny.

What we know from Rover, Kepler, Rachel Maddow and the like is that Republicans are racists. They're crazy. They're are morbidly old. They are hypocrites. They're obstructionists, and incapable of governing. They are so far in the extreme it's not possible to go more extreme. And, something like only 25-30% of the population has a favorable opinion of the Republican party, and their policies.

They're going to win today? Who in the heck are they running against?

It's a change election. It's where all the mindless automaton's go to the polls and pull the lever of opposite guy. Opposite guy is the guy opposite the party that's in power. There are a few Republican Governors who are getting voted out today as well.

I can't wait for Mitch and the Bone Man to be running the entire Legislative Branch. It's going to be so awesome.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

They're going to win today? Who in the heck are they running against?

But not because they have better policies. It's because the "stupid wimminfolks" haven't yet been taught what's good fer em. They're mentally ill with low self esteem if they don't agree.
 
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Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

The value of money is learned, not biological. You aren't born wanting money.

Hardly. Money is the key factor in basic survival like food, water, shelter and is a major factor in prestige, influence, etc. That's still biological.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Here is the thing I find kind of funny.

What we know from Rover, Kepler, Rachel Maddow and the like is that Republicans are racists. They're crazy. They're are morbidly old. They are hypocrites. They're obstructionists, and incapable of governing. They are so far in the extreme it's not possible to go more extreme. And, something like only 25-30% of the population has a favorable opinion of the Republican party, and their policies.

They're going to win today? Who in the heck are they running against?
Well said!

In the end both parties are doing lousy and this will be a typical 6th year election in a President's 2nd term. But, as the Reps are doing lousy, they won't get as big a movement as they'd like, but the Dems have done so lousy, people aren't excited about them governing other.

Kep, when do we get the 2016 campaign fired up?
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Hey lets do our predictions (if nobody has yet). Like pundits, no points off for wrong answers!

Dems lose: IA (bad campaign by Braley, did the time honored Dem stupid campaign tactic of expecting the media to report on opponent's nutso statements instead of doing it themselves), MT-WV-SD (no contest), AR, LA (although it goes to run-off).

GOP loses: Kansas (Roberts is a fossil, Gov race going to help sink him).

Dems hold: AK, NC, NH

GOP hold: KY

Too close to call: CO, GA. These states are the make or break ones. Dems can't hold Senate if they lose both IA and CO. GOP can't win without GA. GA and CO races will also tell (as well as NC) who's get out of the vote drive is working better.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Here is the thing I find kind of funny.

What we know from Rover, Kepler, Rachel Maddow and the like is that Republicans are racists. They're crazy. They're are morbidly old. They are hypocrites. They're obstructionists, and incapable of governing. They are so far in the extreme it's not possible to go more extreme. And, something like only 25-30% of the population has a favorable opinion of the Republican party, and their policies.

They're going to win today? Who in the heck are they running against?

Because they're running in states where the population is racist, morbidly old, and hypocritical! AKA The Red States! :D
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Dems lose: IA (bad campaign by Braley, did the time honored Dem stupid campaign tactic of expecting the media to report on opponent's nutso statements instead of doing it themselves),
I happened to see a number of tv ads from this campaign, although I'm sure not the number that Iowa residents were exposed to.

The thing that struck me was that Ernst's ads were just very well done, and Braley's were not. In pretty much all of Ernst's ads she was on camera, speaking to the voters. She may very well be nuts. But she didn't come across that way in her ads. I never saw an ad in which I saw Braley actually speak. All of his were the voice of doom ads talking about how Ernst's election will mean the end of the world.

I compare that with the Minnesota race. Again, in many of Al Franken's ads he is on camera talking to you. The voters get to hear his own words about what he will or will not do, what he believes in. Very good ads, compared with McFadden who in many ads seems to have followed the Braley model.
 
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