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Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

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Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

French Rage said:
Does Flaggy know he's lying, or is he just that stupid?
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Why can't it be both?

I love how he comes on here with something that was debunked two days ago, and thinks he's scoring major points with it. It's like he lives in ………………..a bubble, or something.
 
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Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

Can the man be more of an a-hole?

Brady Mallory: "So, for family farmers here who are worried about losing their generations-long farms -- at the end of the season --, (and) early retirement, any words of comfort for them now?"


President Donald Trump: "Well, they would've lost them anyway because they were being hurt so badly by the trade barriers. We will tell you they are going to be in a very good position soon."
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Yeah, they'll be in a great position a year from now, after the farm is gone. Good thing they didn't lose it because of the "death tax".
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

Rover said:
Forgive my recollections, but I don't ever remember a Chinese leader being shot since the Communists took over. Furthermore, Jack Ma and crew may have some input but again unless the military is behind those guys I don't see them telling Xi what to do. In fact, again by the limits of my recollections, has there ever been a time when a Chinese leader didn't retire or die in office as opposed to being forced out? Mao, Deng, Jiang, Hu, Xi...am I missing anybody.

It sounds like the threat to Xi is practically non-existent relative to the pressure on Trump, who if his party gets smoked this year will be under tremendous pressure to change tactics in time for 2020. In the meantime the Chinese have enough reserves to make everybody whole if they wanted to for a couple of years and just wait out the democratic process in America. For all the talk of capitalistic China, it is still a state planned economy and you don't do things against the government's wishes. There's little comparison between the two.
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They haven't been shot, you are correct, which is not the same thing as saying the power to do so doesn't exist, however unlikely it may be. (I believe some of the Gang of Four were sentenced to death post Zhou, but that was later commuted to life I think.) At any rate, technically a president has never been successfully impeached either, but certainly it can happen.

Without writing an essay on recent Chinese history-- Deng was the defacto leader, but never held any of the the offices of power. Gen Sec of the Communist Party is the top office of power. Post Mao and prior to Xi, Gen Sec's in order are Hua, Hu, Zhao, Jiang, and Hu Jintao. All but Hu Jintao, who (it's presumed voluntarily) stepped down from all offices at the end of his term, were forced out of power by their comrades.

China does have massive foreign currency reserves at just under 30% of GDP. (Around $3T ) . Right now that reserve covers about 13% of broad money supply which is below the 20% recommended by the International Monetary Fund tests. China own all it's banks, and at the moment it's banking system is under massive pressure. Should the bubble burst, China's huge trade surplus means they will always be able to buy what they need no matter what the Yuan is worth because they sell way more goods than they buy. However, if for example the US stops buying exports, that position is massively weakened. None of this is a simple problem for China despite their huge foreign currency reserves. Running a $1 million business with $300k in cash reserves is a strong position, but it's not bulletproof by any means.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

All good Wisco. My point is more related to that China has the means to hold out for a couple of years and see how the mid-terms and general election plays out. If the GOP wins both times then maybe they have an incentive to make a real deal. In the meantime I foresee a toothless policy agreement ala Trump & North Korea and then they go back to doing exactly what they were doing before while they bide their time.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

5mn_Major said:
You gave credence to the concept that a decline in Chinese markets and minor, jittery increases in US markets signaled a US trade war victory over China. "If the market was Vegas, China would be 11-2 dogs in this fight so far."

The US is borrowing, the economy is juiced in the short term, and therefore the markets are a terrible indicator. S&P, Nasdaq do not reflect the tariffs' long term marketplace damage being done in the US.
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Everything is not an ideological conflict. Obviously stating Vegas has the Packers at 10 point dogs to the Vikings (they're not) is not the same as saying I think the Packers are going to lose. Nor is it giving an opinion on whether they should play the game.

I think yesterday the line was +1, but if it was +10 today, I'd wonder why that is? What is the Vegas money thinking?

You've gone from saying the US markets are undervalued to saying they are juiced short term in like 3 posts. Are you a day trader?
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

Rover said:
All good Wisco. My point is more related to that China has the means to hold out for a couple of years and see how the mid-terms and general election plays out. If the GOP wins both times then maybe they have an incentive to make a real deal. In the meantime I foresee a toothless policy agreement ala Trump & North Korea and then they go back to doing exactly what they were doing before while they bide their time.
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That makes some sense and it's probable that the money agrees with you. If you're right, it seems going forward the worst case scenario would essentially be the status quo, or at best some small Chinese concession somewhere.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

Wisko McBadgerton said:
Everything is not an ideological conflict. Obviously stating Vegas has the Packers at 10 point dogs to the Vikings (they're not) is not the same as saying I think the Packers are going to lose. Nor is it giving an opinion on whether they should play the game.

I think yesterday the line was +1, but if it was +10 today, I'd wonder why that is? What is the Vegas money thinking?

You've gone from saying the US markets are undervalued to saying they are juiced short term in like 3 posts. Are you a day trader?
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When you argue that the US is doing quite well and China's not in a discussion about tariffs...you will be seen as supporting tariffs. Point is that the comparative markets are not an indicator of the true impacts of tariffs and that tariffs are truly bad for both economies.

And yes, the markets should be much higher in value because they're juiced with massive borrowing but have had only mild increases this year. And so undervalued. Seems to make a lot of common sense to me.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

Why does everyone keep tying a short term bump in the markets to tariffs rather than a 30% reduction in corporate tax?

Never mind that the deficit was up over 50% in August vs. last year.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

Oh boy, those Trump tax cuts really hit the spot. My employer just announced a 10% workforce reduction over the next three years. That's about 30,000 layoffs.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

5mn_Major said:
Why does everyone keep tying a short term bump in the markets to tariffs rather than a 30% reduction in corporate tax?
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They do?
I see the two as conflicting forces and the tax cut influence is overcoming the tariffs and pushing the market up.
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

St. Clown said:
Oh boy, those Trump tax cuts really hit the spot. My employer just announced a 10% workforce reduction over the next three years. That's about 30,000 layoffs.
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Without giving away more than you wish to say, ... industry/business sector?
 
Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

unofan said:
Oh come on, scanning headlines or googling "30,000 layoffs" isn't that hard.
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If you Google "30,000 layoffs", the first few things that come up are stories regarding Volkswagen.

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In fact Wells Fargo doesn't come up at all.
 
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Re: Business, Economics & Tax Policy 7: Workers of the world unite!

SJHovey said:
If you Google "30,000 layoffs", the first few things that come up are stories regarding Volkswagen.

Edit:

In fact Wells Fargo doesn't come up at all.
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"cut workforce 10%" worked for me :p
 
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