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Business, Economics, and Taxes 2: That's Why We Fight to Take the Means Back

"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." -- JFK

"The bourgeoisie of the whole world, which looks complacently upon wholesale massacre, is convulsed by horror at the desecration of brick and mortar." -- Groucho Marx
 
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Speaking of, some paper warehouse in Ontario, CA was torched by they believe an employee, who said all they needed to do was to pay people enough to afford to be able to live.
 
rufus said:
Speaking of, some paper warehouse in Ontario, CA was torched by they believe an employee, who said all they needed to do was to pay people enough to afford to be able to live.
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The Rational National

Pro tip: As tempting as it may be, you probably shouldn't upload videos of you committing crimes onto social media.
Of course, if I was on his jury he's still walking.
 
Fire bad. I don't give a shit that he destroyed some assclown's (insured) business. But fire does shit like burn down utterly unrelated city blocks with hospitals and babies and nope, I'm not gonna back that up.

Which makes me a loser anarcho-syndicalist, since without at least the threat of large scale violence nobody ever reformed anything.
 
aparch said:
My oil industry knowlege comes from a 30+ year industry guy from Oklahoma who posts on TikTok as Mr. Global. (He also has longer form talks on YouTube.) That said, you figured out what he's been posting about for a month now.

Futures market is just paper. Monopoly money and titles. Its a theoretical value on an estimated number of barrels of oil.

Actual cost of oil is the Spot Price and that is what the oil producers are actually buying that tanker of oil at. So yes, there is a lag.

BUT, prices jump at the station because we pay the replacement cost of gasoline. When Wawa raises their price $0.75 overnight, they're expecting their next tank to be expensive. (Funny how slow the price drops when the replacement price is lower.)

Also for how it's all related, Mr. Global has been adamant about the spot price being $40(ish) higher than futures prices. The longer the strait is reduced/closed to shipping, thats going to make the spot price for existing oil rise. Being a big, lagging chain, you are again correct that we are not out of the woods just yet.

Had the cease fire allowed the strait to free-flow oil tankers again, there may still have been enough slack in the entire chain to absorb Trump's stupidity. The longer this drags out, the less slack in the supply chain.
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you can also just look at the forward curve for RBOB and the crack spread rather than spending too much time watching the oil dailies.

Sure they matter, but the RBOB and crack tell you where the money thinks refined products are going to go.
 
aparch said:
refinerymaplarge.png
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big amount of refined products in new england comes from st john new brunswick. Irving oil. ill guarantee they are refining higher price crude. you think they have that kind of storage?? to go for a month or two?
 
An AI summary of the incidents, for max irony:

In a span of three days, Sam Altman and OpenAI were the focus of two separate, possibly related attacks in San Francisco. On Friday at about 4:12 a.m., an individual allegedly threw a Molotov cocktail at Altman's Russian Hill property; officers detained a 20-year-old suspect who was later booked on suspicion of attempted murder and arson. Two days later, at approximately 1:40 a.m., surveillance footage and on-site security reported a suspected gunshot fired from a passing Honda sedan near the same estate. Police traced a license plate from camera footage, arrested Amanda Tom, 25, and Muhamad Tarik Hussein, 23, and recovered three firearms. Both were booked on suspicion of negligent discharge of a firearm. No one was injured in either episode.
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I have obtained secret photos of the perpetrators.

Terminator-2.jpg
 
Brent crude futures settled right back down again. Am I really to believe the market has priced this scarcity into a $96 price for the next, I dunno, year?
 
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The market as a whole responded to news the peace talks failed and the US was now blockading the strait (?) was going up almost 2%

Like any of it makes sense.
 
Interesting thesis aired on Foreign Policy Live. I recommend listening to the whole episode, it is called "Clean Energy Tensions -- The Iran War Cease-Fire and the Return of the Energy Weapon."

In brief:

The crisis creates a new geopolitical rift and reality: the petro states (the US, Russia and the oil producing states in middle east) vs the electro states (China, and all the poor or small countries whose exposure to shock incentivizes them to move to renewables.

In the short term, those countries will be dependent on the Chinese dominance of the electric supply chain. In the long term, this will help the transition away from petrol as more states throw in with renewables they can control locally. As the volatility in the oil supplier region increases, the demand for petrol will decrease. The game isn't worth the candle.

The flight from petro energy should go hand in hand with a decrease in American investment in keeping the flow of oil open. It will no longer be worth the massive cost of infinite military commitment in defense of Israel, and the socio-political costs of allying with ethically despicable states like Israel, the Emirates, and Saudi Arabia in their fights with equally despicable regimes like Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

The question is, of course, whether TPTB in the West will permit the US to withdraw that support and unwarp the American economy. Untether us from the petrodollar economy and its cycle of debt and increased inequality. Or whether in trying to protect their plunder they'll blow up the planet. Rentiers don't go quietly.
 
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Kepler said:
The question is, of course, whether TPTB in the West will permit the US to withdraw that support and unwarp the American economy. Untether us from the petrodollar economy and its cycle of debt and increased inequality. Or whether in trying to protect their plunder they'll blow up the planet. Rentiers don't go quietly.
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That's a rhetorical question, right?
 
There have been instances in history where the people got sick of the powerful and murdered them.

But never when the powerful had nukes.

It's an interesting problem.
 
Europe is losing six dollars per barrel of oil. Continued losses will cause production to be reduced. Also the US Treasury is propping up the futures market to keep them artificially lower than spot prices.


Kepler will enjoy this. Sorry, he hasn't posted this to his YouTube.
 
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