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Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 8: Bezos Takes Over the World

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Re: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 8: Bezos Takes Over the World

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“So far, you’ve had Tariffs imposed on 300 Billion Dollars worth of Chinese products, but you can’t tell me that it has hurt our economy...& it really hasn’t led to any kind of serious rise in prices at the consumer level.” <a href="https://twitter.com/Varneyco?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Varneyco</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/FoxBusiness?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FoxBusiness</a> And we are taking in $Billions!</p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1161666538379853824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 14, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Great Charles Payne <a href="https://twitter.com/cvpayne?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@cvpayne</a> correctly stated that Fed Chair Jay Powell made TWO enormous mistakes. 1. When he said “mid cycle adjustment.” 2. We’re data dependent. “He did not do the right thing.” I agree (to put it mildly!). <a href="https://twitter.com/Varneyco?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Varneyco</a></p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1161687635426983937?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 14, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 8: Bezos Takes Over the World

aparch said:
Can someone (or lots of someones) refresh my memory about the Great Recession of '08.

Specifically, were there multiple news outlets and as much virtual ink spilled over "recession indicators" like I have seen in the last month? I feel like there really wasnt, maybe only at CNBC / Business Insider / WSJ.

Correct me if I'm wrong on this too, but it seems like the concensus when the fall happened in December 2007 was "Let the new guy deal with it," "Sink or swim moment for the Rookie," and here Trump is that drunk driver telling his buddies he's okay to drive while doing 80 down the freeway ignoring every goddammed warning light and caution sign saying "bridge out."
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Here's the thing, you could be in the middle of the strongest bull market ever seen (growing economy), and there will always be negative indicators found somewhere. Some analyst will state that it spells doom and gloom for the world. We've had mixed indicators out there for most of the year, and some see those as the apocalypse coming within the next week while others see them as a longer-term issue.

The problem we have now is that this morning we saw the T-bond slip below the T-bill for yield. That's a bad sign, universally seen as one, not just by some crackpot on a USCHO thread. It means that the market sees there to be less volatility and greater economic security in the long-term than in the short-term. Trouble's a brewin'. The DOW just shed 600pts since that yield inversion took place, that's more than a 2% drop in market valuation. This one cannot be ignored by anybody with a scintilla of economic sense. The POTUS will blame Steve Jobs.
 
Re: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 8: Bezos Takes Over the World

St. Clown said:
Here's the thing, you could be in the middle of the strongest bull market ever seen (growing economy), and there will always be negative indicators found somewhere. Some analyst will state that it spells doom and gloom for the world. We've had mixed indicators out there for most of the year, and some see those as the apocalypse coming within the next week while others see them as a longer-term issue.

The problem we have now is that this morning we saw the T-bond slip below the T-bill for yield. That's a bad sign, universally seen as one, not just by some crackpot on a USCHO thread. It means that the market sees there to be less volatility and greater economic security in the long-term than in the short-term. Trouble's a brewin'. The DOW just shed 600pts since that yield inversion took place, that's more than a 2% drop in market valuation. This one cannot be ignored by anybody with a scintilla of economic sense. The POTUS will blame Steve Jobs.
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Yeah, but none of this was surprising. The much talked about yield curve began its path to inversion a while ago. But you don't really know whether that means anything without some other confirmation. The interest rate market (especially the 3-month) showed real signs of the inversion back in December/January. Once the 3-month crests, you can bet an inversion isn't that far behind. It's almost as good an indicator for when things start to go t-ts up.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TB3MS

It just seems like once that starts ticking up, the fuse is lit and it's only a matter of time. Maybe not as reliable as the yield curve, but still pretty obvious nonetheless.

There are other indicators as well. I'd be willing to bet if you took the forecasted capital investment for the Fortune 50 and plotted it, it would be an even better indicator. Once that starts seizing, it's like the housing market. It just sends shockwaves.

Edit: I think this is what this is...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FA895050005Q

Edit 2: Then there's this gloomy read: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...eld-curve-the-30-year-treasury-yield-is-scary

At first glance, it seems as if a haven bid is afoot. That’s true, to an extent. But, crucially, it’s important to recognize that the longest-maturity Treasuries are leading the rally. The benchmark 10-year U.S. yield, by contrast, is still about 30 basis points away from its record low. This suggests something beyond just a flight to quality.

Consider the duration of the long bond compared with shorter-maturity notes. The effective duration of a 30-year Treasury is about 21 years, while it’s about 8.7 years for a 10-year Treasury. That means that if yields rose across the curve by 1 percentage point, owners of 10-year notes would suffer an 8.7% loss. That’s pretty bad. But it’s nothing compared to the long bond, which in that scenario would lose a staggering 21%, meeting the usual definition of a bear market. Even if 30-year yields just rose back to the level they were at two weeks ago, it would mean double-digit losses for anyone who purchased them on Wednesday.

In fact, for bond traders, 30-year Treasuries might just be the riskiest part of the debt market because they can usually be whipsawed by a change in global economic conditions or the outlook for inflation. The prospect for steep losses only intensifies the lower the yield falls.

However, this relentless rally at the long end shows that bond traders have completely let go of all fear of rising interest rates, stronger-than-expected economic growth or a sustained rebound in inflation. That should be as nerve-wracking to investors as the prospect of a global economic recession. After all, there’s a playbook for dealing with a downturn and an inverted curve. There’s no historical guide to sovereign debt yields across the world trading at, near or below zero.
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Re: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 8: Bezos Takes Over the World

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">instead of reciprocating Trump’s tariff delay, China responded overnight by declaring it would retaliate against remaining Trump tariffs<br><br>that sent US stock futures down <a href="https://t.co/ZEhzfXHHoM">https://t.co/ZEhzfXHHoM</a></p>— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1161963877548077056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 15, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 8: Bezos Takes Over the World

Sure would be nice to have that trillion dollar tax cut money right now.
 
Re: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 8: Bezos Takes Over the World

The 30-year bond broke 2% today for the first time ever.
 
Re: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 8: Bezos Takes Over the World

That's an expensive bond. And very sad.
 
Re: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 8: Bezos Takes Over the World

**** that company. Those as-holes are the ones that brought us the “GE model” and Jacob Welch.
 
Re: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 8: Bezos Takes Over the World

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“There’s no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen.” — Larry Kudlow, December 2007 <a href="https://t.co/aajDQgEUNe">https://t.co/aajDQgEUNe</a></p>— Kevin M. Kruse (@KevinMKruse) <a href="https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1163082082559676417?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 18, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 8: Bezos Takes Over the World

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Kudlow didn't see the 2008 crash coming either.
 
Re: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 8: Bezos Takes Over the World

Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
Huh.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...thinking-how-it-defines-corporations-purpose/

“Americans deserve an economy that allows each person to succeed through hard work and creativity and to lead a life of meaning and dignity," reads the statement from the organization, which is chaired by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.
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“Please don’t collect our heads during the revolution. Pretty please.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
“Americans deserve an economy that allows each person to succeed through hard work and creativity and to lead a life of meaning and dignity," reads the statement from the organization, which is chaired by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.
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Isn't he the same guy who couldn't figure out how to pay a livable wage to his employee and was embarrassed on TV in a congressional hearing?
 
Re: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 8: Bezos Takes Over the World

JPM started that process early this year or late last year when they were getting blasted for their employees not being able to pay for rent, food, daycare, daily commute, and work clothes. They tried to defend themselves, but it didn't go well for them. And I doubt they've actually changed any pay rates for their employees most in need of it.
 
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