ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
Thanks goes to Dump. It's of his making.
Thanks goes to Dump. It's of his making.
USCHO Fan Forum
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
-
The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.
Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
- Thread starter MissThundercat
- Start date
- Status
St. Clown
Liberal Rebel Scum, apparently
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
Fake news!
?
Fake news!
?
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
Can you be unemployed if you still have a law license?
Can you be unemployed if you still have a law license?
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
That was... a lot more than expected...
Another 6.6 million new initial jobless claims today.
That was... a lot more than expected...
D
Deutsche Gopher Fan
Guest
And I still think corporate America has barely begun to dump its white collar workers. I think it gets way worse
aparch
Acetaminamerican
Agree. There are currently ~17 Million people who filed for unemployment in the last three weeks, and that's mainly service industry employees from businesses that didn't want to wait it out.
There are a lot of white collar people working from home that companies could now see as expendable.
RaceBoarder
Waiting for the Snow to fly...
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
Coming into this week, I have been averaging 80 hours + 20-26 hours OT on each 2 week paycheck. I had just 2 hours OT this past week. Being food distribution we're still nowhere near layoffs, but it's a noticeable reduction in hours.
It's also interesting to note that my job will lose 90% of hires before they hit 90 days (majority are people simply walking away because they don't want to work in a fridge/freezer environment. Not showing up (you are terminated on a 3rd late/call off in first 90 days) and being a buffoon with a forklift also take out a small portion). I wouldn't be shocked if the office people are licking their chops at the idea of a downturn simply for the fact that they may be able to get a slight uptick in people who will be both competent AND willing to do the job.
Coming into this week, I have been averaging 80 hours + 20-26 hours OT on each 2 week paycheck. I had just 2 hours OT this past week. Being food distribution we're still nowhere near layoffs, but it's a noticeable reduction in hours.
It's also interesting to note that my job will lose 90% of hires before they hit 90 days (majority are people simply walking away because they don't want to work in a fridge/freezer environment. Not showing up (you are terminated on a 3rd late/call off in first 90 days) and being a buffoon with a forklift also take out a small portion). I wouldn't be shocked if the office people are licking their chops at the idea of a downturn simply for the fact that they may be able to get a slight uptick in people who will be both competent AND willing to do the job.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
This is why The Senate was trying to push through the extra cash for SBA so fast. They must have gotten wind the number was going to be huge.
Short Term UBI might be the only way out of this. Even states with a decent set up for unemployment like Minnesota are having issues. The system isnt built for this many people this fast.
Another 6.6 million new initial jobless claims today.
This is why The Senate was trying to push through the extra cash for SBA so fast. They must have gotten wind the number was going to be huge.
Short Term UBI might be the only way out of this. Even states with a decent set up for unemployment like Minnesota are having issues. The system isnt built for this many people this fast.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
Yet we've known for a long time this could happen. Good thing we got that tax cut through. I don't know what we'd do without that.
Yet we've known for a long time this could happen. Good thing we got that tax cut through. I don't know what we'd do without that.
aparch
Acetaminamerican
And one third of renters missed making their rent this month.
And there is talk among economists that the housing market is showing signs of collapse, coupled with banks being too busy making loans to small businesses and not able to take on mortgage loans.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
Friend of mine who works for a large corporation in Minneapolis was told today that they may force them to work from home until August now. Remember when we were going to open things up on Sunday?
Thanks, Mr. President.
Friend of mine who works for a large corporation in Minneapolis was told today that they may force them to work from home until August now. Remember when we were going to open things up on Sunday?
Thanks, Mr. President.
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
Not like this. I'm sorry, but the previous all-time high in a week was around 650,000. You can't plan for 10x the all-time high.
I want to be there with you saying we should have been prepared for this, but it has never happened before. Certainly not with online systems. I'm not sure we have a population-adjusted "jobless claims" going back through the Depression (did we have even monthly data for unemployment back then?) but I would be shocked if it was this fast.
We've approximately tripled the US population since 1920. We've had 15 million new claims in three weeks. I'm curious if we really had 5 million claims in three weeks during the Depression. More data:
1929 unemployment was 3.2%.
1930 was 8.7%
1931 was 15.9%
1932 was 23.6%
1933 was 24.9% (jeebus, this is incredible typing these numbers and realizing they're annual, I knew it was nightmarish but for whatever reason this is striking)
1934 was 21.7%
So let's say we take an 8% increase over a year. That's still only .75% per month. I don't know if the math works this way, it probably doesn't, but we've crushed that number. We're going to go from 3.5% to 10% effectively overnight. No system can be designed for that.
Edit: This source indicates we had about 50 million people in the workforce back then https://www2.census.gov/library/pub..._stats_1789-1945/hist_stats_1789-1945-chD.pdf
So we would have 4 million people (8%) lose their jobs in 1931-1932. Triple that for population and it's 12 million over a year. Even adjusted we're still 25% higher than that loss and we did it in 6% (3/52) of the time.
Not like this. I'm sorry, but the previous all-time high in a week was around 650,000. You can't plan for 10x the all-time high.
I want to be there with you saying we should have been prepared for this, but it has never happened before. Certainly not with online systems. I'm not sure we have a population-adjusted "jobless claims" going back through the Depression (did we have even monthly data for unemployment back then?) but I would be shocked if it was this fast.
We've approximately tripled the US population since 1920. We've had 15 million new claims in three weeks. I'm curious if we really had 5 million claims in three weeks during the Depression. More data:
1929 unemployment was 3.2%.
1930 was 8.7%
1931 was 15.9%
1932 was 23.6%
1933 was 24.9% (jeebus, this is incredible typing these numbers and realizing they're annual, I knew it was nightmarish but for whatever reason this is striking)
1934 was 21.7%
So let's say we take an 8% increase over a year. That's still only .75% per month. I don't know if the math works this way, it probably doesn't, but we've crushed that number. We're going to go from 3.5% to 10% effectively overnight. No system can be designed for that.
Edit: This source indicates we had about 50 million people in the workforce back then https://www2.census.gov/library/pub..._stats_1789-1945/hist_stats_1789-1945-chD.pdf
So we would have 4 million people (8%) lose their jobs in 1931-1932. Triple that for population and it's 12 million over a year. Even adjusted we're still 25% higher than that loss and we did it in 6% (3/52) of the time.
Last edited:
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
We knew a pandemic could happen. This is an OBVIOUS result of this sort of pandemic. We didn't plan for it. We failed. I don't see any other conclusion to draw.
We knew a pandemic could happen. This is an OBVIOUS result of this sort of pandemic. We didn't plan for it. We failed. I don't see any other conclusion to draw.
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
I don't know if anyone can say whether we'll hit it or not. All I'm saying is that the rate at which we've increased has never been seen before in the US. Never.
If the workforce is approx. 150-160M people we'd have to lose an astounding 40M jobs to hit some of those Great Depression #'s. If this is expected to be even worse than that then.....Yikes.
I don't know if anyone can say whether we'll hit it or not. All I'm saying is that the rate at which we've increased has never been seen before in the US. Never.
aparch
Acetaminamerican
If the workforce is approx. 150-160M people we'd have to lose an astounding 40M jobs to hit some of those Great Depression #'s. If this is expected to be even worse than that then.....Yikes.
Third of the way to it in a fraction of the time.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
I would consider that a consequence of our service and gig-based economy.
I would consider that a consequence of our service and gig-based economy.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
There is no way anyone could have planned for this even if they planned for a Pandemic. No model done would show the Economy shutting down this hard, this fast in every state. You expect this type of impact over months not weeks. Anyone who says otherwise is using hindsight. Even if Obama was in charge this thing would be tanking...
The rent issue is going to be huge. The fact that the Stimulus Bill (oh man I know I noticed the stimulation!!) did nothing to help renters or home owners which is going to cause an even bigger slow down. Every state doesnt have the clout of California who got the banks to agree to forbearance. People think just because some states made it impossible to evict for the time being that changes anything but in reality it doesnt. In fact the only thing it does is kick the overall problem down the road. Banks might not be able to default you, but they can (and will) force a balloon payment after the restrictions are lifted as can landlords with back rent. So yay you wont be homeless now but come August you are right and goodly phukked. And with the housing market slowing...well...yeah.
This is gonna get ugly.
There is no way anyone could have planned for this even if they planned for a Pandemic. No model done would show the Economy shutting down this hard, this fast in every state. You expect this type of impact over months not weeks. Anyone who says otherwise is using hindsight. Even if Obama was in charge this thing would be tanking...
The rent issue is going to be huge. The fact that the Stimulus Bill (oh man I know I noticed the stimulation!!) did nothing to help renters or home owners which is going to cause an even bigger slow down. Every state doesnt have the clout of California who got the banks to agree to forbearance. People think just because some states made it impossible to evict for the time being that changes anything but in reality it doesnt. In fact the only thing it does is kick the overall problem down the road. Banks might not be able to default you, but they can (and will) force a balloon payment after the restrictions are lifted as can landlords with back rent. So yay you wont be homeless now but come August you are right and goodly phukked. And with the housing market slowing...well...yeah.
This is gonna get ugly.
Last edited:
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
That is definitely a large part of it.
That is definitely a large part of it.
RaceBoarder
Waiting for the Snow to fly...
Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich
I don't think were at Great Depression levels just yet. Those numbers were spread out five years. As it stands, we are looking at 1.5 years for a good chunk of these people if they are off until we have a viable vaccine (using a best case here). Once that is achieved, we SHOULD be able to "flip the switch" and get many of those people back into their old jobs fairly quickly.
There are some factors in play, like how many small businesses fold in that timeframe due to attrition, but I'm not ready to buy into the full Doomsday, Worst Case scenario just yet. Not saying it'll be a cakewalk, but I don't believe it'll be 3-4 years at 20%+ either.
I don't think were at Great Depression levels just yet. Those numbers were spread out five years. As it stands, we are looking at 1.5 years for a good chunk of these people if they are off until we have a viable vaccine (using a best case here). Once that is achieved, we SHOULD be able to "flip the switch" and get many of those people back into their old jobs fairly quickly.
There are some factors in play, like how many small businesses fold in that timeframe due to attrition, but I'm not ready to buy into the full Doomsday, Worst Case scenario just yet. Not saying it'll be a cakewalk, but I don't believe it'll be 3-4 years at 20%+ either.
- Status