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BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

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Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

Bomber said:
I was just about to bring up the Greenway keep-away play. It's a microcosm of what's wrong with this team. He should have had 3 teammates breaking free or streaking to the net to pass to. Instead everyone's standing around watching Greenway "fiddle and diddle." #NoFlow
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Spot on. BU isn’t leveraging Greenway’s unique puck possession and passing skills as well as last season. The coaches have encouraged Greenway to go to the net more often, but that doesn't mean to abandon his cycling game. He and Lane were particularly effective working together:
Vermont 33 seconds
Vermont 1:06
Quinnipiac 16 seconds

Agreed with defkit that that Greenway shouldn’t be on Keller’s line. I’d rather see him with JFK and Bellows (assuming his adjustment period is over).

And as the guy who was critical of Cloonan being on the top line, gotta give him credit for a strong game last night, using his speed to break through Yale’s forecheck and even skating the puck from behind the cage into the O-zone..
 
Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

smyler3 said:
Is it possession? I started really noticing it at the Providence game. They hardly ever get set up in the offensive zone and try to work out quality shots. They are very good at getting a shot off on the initial rush/entry, but seem to have a hard time following it up.

Now watch Sean hit me with a page of possession stats blowing my theory out of the water.
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I've not seen any published NCAA stats that include time of possession, and even if I did, it would be way too much information to try and handle. As for the game last night, I thought BU did well controlling play most of the game, if not having extended attack zone possession time. I do agree that they need to work on getting the forwards into better position to win control of the puck after getting a shot off from a rush. It seems they were trying last night, but more often than not it resulted in an offsides.

As for all those complaining about the first half, the team is currently 4th in the pairwise. :)

All the complaining did get me interested in how past BU teams have done in the first half, so I created more queries in my database to be able to compare BU stats between seasons after any number of games played. The stats I included are W-L-T, winning %, goals for, goals against, goal differential, saves, shots by opponent, team save %, and shutouts for and against. If anyone is interested I've uploaded a spreadsheet with BU's records after 17 games played, the rest of each season and overall for every season. At this time saves, shots and save % are only available since the start of Hockey East.

The team's winning percentage is good, but not one of the best after 17 games. It is, however, tied for the third best since the 2001-02 season (15 seasons). The team's goals against (35) is the third best since the 1970-71 season (when they only allowed 28), with only 2006-07 (31) and 2014-15 (32) being better. The team's goal differential (+18) is the third best since the 2001-02 season. The team's shots allowed on goal is the best since the 2009-10 season. The team's save percentage (including empty net goals) is the third best since the start of Hockey East in 1984-85. The four shutouts are the most since the 1970-71 season (5) and third most all time after 17 games. Overall an excellent first half from a defensive point of view.

Still it is the second half of the season that determines how good a team really is.

Sean
 
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Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

Sean Pickett said:
I've not seen any published NCAA stats that include time of possession
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Me neither; however, the shot generation stats (Corsi) are available on CHN and are a very close proxy for possession. According to those BU is the 19th best team at possessing the puck 5 on 5, out of 60 teams 19th is not great, but above average, obviously. If you adjusted this for strength of schedule BU would look a little better, and be around the 15th best possession team in the country.
 
Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

Bomber said:
There's something missing from this team. I can't quite put my finger on it.
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And THAT, my friend, is why they call them "intangibles." Otherwise, they would simulate the season on a computer. :D
 
Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

Agganis said:
Me neither; however, the shot generation stats (Corsi) are available on CHN and are a very close proxy for possession. According to those BU is the 19th best team at possessing the puck 5 on 5, out of 60 teams 19th is not great, but above average, obviously. If you adjusted this for strength of schedule BU would look a little better, and be around the 15th best possession team in the country.
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I believe that they are actually 18th overall and 15th even strength. Since you pointed it out I compared the overall Shot Attempts (Corsi) and overall Unblocked Shot Attempts (Fenwick) stats. It is immediately obvious what one of BU's offensive problems is: They are having far too many shots blocked. They are 18th in shot attempts, but they are just 28th in unblocked shot attempts and 10th in blocked shots. But worst of all is that they are 58th in unblocked shot attempts vs all shot attempts with only 0.726815% not being blocked. That is noticeably lower than the NCAA average of 0.766958% and far below Clarkson's NCAA leading 0.845996%. I think the players need to work on improving their shot attempt decisions. Many of the blocked shots are also a reason the team loses control of the puck in the offensive zone. Several times last night I saw shots from the point blocked right out of the zone, a number of them on the powerplay.

I uploaded a spreadsheet which has total shot attempts (SAT), unblocked shot attempts (USAT), blocked shot attempts (BSAT) and unblocked shot attempt percentage (USAT%) if anyone is interested.

Sean
 
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Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

Sean Pickett said:
I believe that they are actually 18th overall and 15th even strength. Since you pointed it out I compared the overall Shot Attempts (Corsi) and overall Unblocked Shot Attempts (Fenwick) stats.
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Sorry, I wasn't clear on what figure was the proxy for possession, it is the even strength Corsi For% (CF%), which is the difference between shots for and shots against expressed as a percentage. 50% means you and your opponent took exactly the same number of shots, and had roughly the same amount of time possessing the puck.

BU is at 53.1%, which like I said is 19th but against a much harder schedule than many of the teams a fraction of a percent ahead of them.
 
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Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

After Bonino scored, they threw up a graphic with all the Terrier's involved in the game. Three coaches and two players. Also mentioned McAvoy and Scott Young's connection to the Pens.
 
Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

Bomber said:
After Bonino scored, they threw up a graphic with all the Terrier's involved in the game. Three coaches and two players. Also mentioned McAvoy and Scott Young's connection to the Pens.
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And then later in the game, they mentioned Clark Donatelli, who I believe coaches one of the Penguins' farm teams.
 
Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

Agganis said:
Sorry, I wasn't clear on what figure was the proxy for possession, it is the even strength Corsi For% (CF%), which is the difference between shots for and shots against expressed as a percentage. 50% means you and your opponent took exactly the same number of shots, and had roughly the same amount of time possessing the puck.

BU is at 53.1%, which like I said is 19th but against a much harder schedule than many of the teams a fraction of a percent ahead of them.
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Thanks, my fault as I got distracted by how many of BU's shots have been blocked. What are using to determine how hard each team's schedule is?

Sean
 
Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

I didn't get a chance to watch the B's. How did Grzelcyk look? I have to admit I didn't expect him to get a call-up in his first season, but you never know what will happen in terms of injuries, etc. (not sure if an injury led to his call-up in this case).
 
Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

kbz said:
So we were told. Haven't seen it. All I see is a forward with 16 minors in 14 games.

Maybe Keller-Bellows is this decade's version of Phil Kessell-Jason Lawrence. Now, I'd love it if Bellows has the senior year that Lawrence had, but while I can see some talent, I see someone who is on the 2nd line based on name and expectations only. Hopefully he proves me wrong.
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Stop with all the quick release comments - he does not have the speed and can not create his own shot. Look how he performs without his wingman Keller, Keller is the real deal, not this draft pick.

And watching the games, he shots from so many bad angles, rarely passes to teammates, just look at assists and being a team player.
 
Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

defkit said:
I didn't get a chance to watch the B's. How did Grzelcyk look? I have to admit I didn't expect him to get a call-up in his first season, but you never know what will happen in terms of injuries, etc. (not sure if an injury led to his call-up in this case).
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I didn't watch either game in full, but from what I saw, he looked okay. Here's what Claude said: "'As advertised, I guess,' coach Claude Julien said of the puck-moving defenseman’s first game. “He skated well. He moved the puck well. It’s his first real game. It’s an eye-opener for anybody who plays in his first real game, especially when you play the defending Stanley Cup champions and you see what they bring. I thought he handled himself well. I liked his game. He’s a smart player. He sees the ice well. He moves well. I thought he was a good help for us tonight.”

They showed is parents and brother during the Ducks game. They looked nervous. :)

Happy Holidays All!
 
Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

A month ago I posted that I was looking into quality starts vs really bad starts for BU goalies. To do that I needed all goalie stats for each NCAA season to determine the mean save percentage for each season. collegehockeystats.com had that information from the 2003-04 season forward, allowing me to find the actual mean save percentage for those seasons. For earlier seasons I used a number of different sources and was able to come up with an estimated mean save percentage, in some cases a rough one, to use in determining how many quality starts each BU goalie has had over each season and their careers. Also, since there was a lot of discussion about whether or not Oettinger was getting too many starts I also compiled BU goalies’ seasonal and career starts. Out of 106 goalies (beginning with the 1973-74 season) Oettinger is currently 10th in starting percentage for a single season. I’ve created a BU Goalies spreadsheet for anyone who is interested.

I got sidetracked by the idea of quality starts so I also compiled game-by-game goalie stats for every game this season. One of the things I looked at was how BU has done against other goalies this season. In 17 games they have faced goalies who had quality starts 8 times, really bad starts 3 times and average starts the remaining 6 times. In the games the opposing goalie had a really bad start BU is 3-0-0, in average starts BU is 4-1-1 and in quality starts BU is 3-4-1. While the 3-4-1 does not look good, the overall record of goalies with a quality start is 344-123-103. Furthermore, in those 8 games where the opposing goalie had a quality start Oettinger and LaCouvee had 5 quality starts and BU is 3-1-1. Overall, BU has had 12 quality starts and is 10-1-1 in those games. I’ve created a NCAA Goalies spreadsheet for anyone who is interested.

Unfortunately for BU they will likely face one of the top goalies in quality starts in every remaining regular season game they play, with the possible exception of the second night of the Beanpot. To date the goalies they have faced have 82 quality starts in 150 total starts (54.7%) and a combined record in those quality starts of 48-14-20 (0.707 winning %). The goalies they may face have 101 quality starts in 173 total starts (58.4%) and a combined record in those quality starts of 63-18-19 (0.725 winning %), while the goalies they are likely to face have 90 quality starts in 147 total starts (61.2%) and a combined record in those quality starts of 57-17-16 (0.722 winning %). I have created filters for the NCAA Goalies spreadsheet that shows the goalies BU has faced and may face the rest of the season.

Finally, as part of the NCAA goalies data, I also compiled each goalie’s percentage of games started. Nine have started all of their team’s games; another 9 have not started every game, but have started a higher percentage of games than Oettinger; 4 have started the same percentage as Oettinger; and 8 more have started at least 80% of their team’s games, but less than Oettinger. That is 29 out of 60 teams, one-half, which have started one goalie at least 80% the time this season.

Sean
 
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Re: BU 2016-17 Season Thread I: The Kids are Alright

Wade Megan got called up, will be in the lineup tonight for the St. Louis Blues. Good for him.
 
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