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Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
  • Start date Start date
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Woods_187 said:
You think the NCAA will reward DU and adhere to "a flight is a flight" mentality" by sending them to the Albany Regional instead of their closest geographical Regional in St. Paul? Do you see a scenario where BSU could end up in the St. Paul Regional and what would this involve? Thanks!
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As long as Cornell/UNH is in Denver's bracket, they go east more to ensure attendance than the "flight is a flight" rule. If St Cloud, Bemidji or UND found themselves in Denver's bracket rather than Wisconsin's, then the rule will be forgotten in exchange for giving them the geographic advantage...

Right now, RIT is the expected autobid from the AHA which makes the switch a no-brainer. If the autobid switches to Air Force, that will be reexamined.

Bemidji will get the St. Paul regional if they are in the correct bracket...it's really a funtion of their #1 seed. If they're in Miami's pod, they'll go to Fort Wayne; BC's pod and they'll go to Worcester. Being paired with Denver, Wisconsin, St Cloud or NoDak are their best bets to remain in St. Paul.
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Priceless said:
As long as Cornell/UNH is in Denver's bracket, they go east more to ensure attendance than the "flight is a flight" rule. If St Cloud, Bemidji or UND found themselves in Denver's bracket rather than Wisconsin's, then the rule will be forgotten in exchange for giving them the geographic advantage...

Right now, RIT is the expected autobid from the AHA which makes the switch a no-brainer. If the autobid switches to Air Force, that will be reexamined.

Bemidji will get the St. Paul regional if they are in the correct bracket...it's really a funtion of their #1 seed. If they're in Miami's pod, they'll go to Fort Wayne; BC's pod and they'll go to Worcester. Being paired with Denver, Wisconsin, St Cloud or NoDak are their best bets to remain in St. Paul.
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If BSU is to end up in Denver's pod, they would need to end-up #8 in pairwise, correct (#1, #8, #9, #16 in same pod)? Grouping possible #1 Denver, #8 BSU, #9 Cornell/Yale, #16 AHA Champ in a regional out east seems counter-productive and would seem to present more of a home-ice advantage for the lower seeds as opposed to what I thought was supposed to be a reward for being higher seeds (regional closer to geographic home)?
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Woods_187 said:
If BSU is to end up in Denver's pod, they would need to end-up #8 in pairwise, correct (#1, #8, #9, #16 in same pod)? Grouping possible #1 Denver, #8 BSU, #9 Cornell/Yale, #16 AHA Champ in a regional out east seems counter-productive and would seem to present more of a home-ice advantage for the lower seeds as opposed to what I thought was supposed to be a reward for being higher seeds (regional closer to geographic home)?
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Denver can still finish #2.

BSU doesn't want to end up in the same bracket as Cornell, as that pod is likely bound for Albany.

The NCAA doesn't have much problem giving Minnesota, Michigan or Wisconsin home ice, even if they're a lower seed. I don't see a problem putting a game on neutral ice and having a lower seed enjoy a "home crowd' advantage. Denver is going to be outmanned crowd-wise unless the games are held in Antarctica anyway.
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Woods_187 said:
If BSU is to end up in Denver's pod, they would need to end-up #8 in pairwise, correct (#1, #8, #9, #16 in same pod)? Grouping possible #1 Denver, #8 BSU, #9 Cornell/Yale, #16 AHA Champ in a regional out east seems counter-productive and would seem to present more of a home-ice advantage for the lower seeds as opposed to what I thought was supposed to be a reward for being higher seeds (regional closer to geographic home)?
Click to expand...

The problem for Denver is that is that St. Paul isn't any more of a home advantage for Denver than Albany. DU fans are a small fan base and have to fly anyway, so the proximity to home argument isn't very compelling when balanced with attendence considerations for everyone else.

The bigger issue in my mind is who the opponents are for Denver. Playing St. Cloud or Bemidji in St. Paul vs Cornell or RIT in Albany woulld suggest that DU is going to be outnumbered in any venue in terms of fans, and there is no real home ice advantage for the Pios this year.

But either St. Paul or Albany is preferable to a trip to Yost to play Michigan. :)
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Priceless said:
Denver can still finish #2.

BSU doesn't want to end up in the same bracket as Cornell, as that pod is likely bound for Albany.

The NCAA doesn't have much problem giving Minnesota, Michigan or Wisconsin home ice, even if they're a lower seed. I don't see a problem putting a game on neutral ice and having a lower seed enjoy a "home crowd' advantage. Denver is going to be outmanned crowd-wise unless the games are held in Antarctica anyway.
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So, Miami would need to end up #1, DU #2 in PWR would potentially force committee to send Miami to Ft. Wayne & DU to St. Paul, am I correct? Then St. Cloud/UND would need to finish #7 & BSU #10 (#2, #7, #10, #15 same pod) to potentially have these teams all in St. Paul? Just trying to determine a scenario/PWR rankings for key teams to get BSU into St. Paul. Just wondering how likely this would be…
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Woods_187 said:
So, Miami would need to end up #1, DU #2 in PWR would potentially force committee to send Miami to Ft. Wayne & DU to St. Paul, am I correct? Then St. Cloud/UND would need to finish #7 & BSU #10 (#2, #7, #10, #15 same pod) to potentially have these teams all in St. Paul? Just trying to determine a scenario/PWR rankings for key teams to get BSU into St. Paul. Just wondering how likely this would be…
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To put BSU in St Paul:

3 - Wisconsin
6 - Bemidji
11 - XXXX
14 - XXXX

4 - North Dakota
5 - Bemidji
12 - XXXX
13 - XXXX

4 - St Cloud
5 - Bemidji
12 - XXXX
13 - XXXX

It's very unlikely Denver is going to end up in St Paul, and 99% impossible for Miami, so finishing 7 or 8 probably isn't going to get it done.
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Priceless said:
To put BSU in St Paul:

3 - Wisconsin
6 - Bemidji
11 - XXXX
14 - XXXX

4 - North Dakota
5 - Bemidji
12 - XXXX
13 - XXXX

4 - St Cloud
5 - Bemidji
12 - XXXX
13 - XXXX

It's very unlikely Denver is going to end up in St Paul, and 99% impossible for Miami, so finishing 7 or 8 probably isn't going to get it done.
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But, the NCAA does have flexability of moving teams around within the "bands" (all four one seeds, all four two seeds, etc.) for attendance, intra-conference matchup problems and travel purposes. Basically, it is all a crapshoot until the tournament is actually announced on Sunday.
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

beaverhockeyfan said:
But, the NCAA does have flexability of moving teams around within the "bands" (all four one seeds, all four two seeds, etc.) for attendance, intra-conference matchup problems and travel purposes. Basically, it is all a crapshoot until the tournament is actually announced on Sunday.
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They can, but they haven't.

They could have kept Air Force close to home even though they were a 4-seed, and they could have put UNH in the east when they were a 1-seed but they didn't. The attendance thing is leftover from the pre-2003 days.
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

I haven't been able to find a scenario in the Pairwise Predictor which can accomplish getting BSU to #5 and either UND/SCSU as #4, or BSU as #6 Wisconsin as #3, any suggestions? Did BSU's chances of getting into St. Paul evaporate when they didn't win CHA Tourney (heard rumor they could've been #4 if so)? Thanks!
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Priceless said:
They can, but they haven't.

They could have kept Air Force close to home even though they were a 4-seed, and they could have put UNH in the east when they were a 1-seed but they didn't. The attendance thing is leftover from the pre-2003 days.
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I believe last year, BSU was the #16 seed and played the #2 seed Notre Dame in the first round.

Basically, what I was saying is that the NCAA is not locked into the 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, 5-13, etc., seedings. There are other factors that come into play as to where teams end up playing.
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Woods_187 said:
I haven't been able to find a scenario in the Pairwise Predictor which can accomplish getting BSU to #5 and either UND/SCSU as #4, or BSU as #6 Wisconsin as #3, any suggestions? Did BSU's chances of getting into St. Paul evaporate when they didn't win CHA Tourney (heard rumor they could've been #4 if so)? Thanks!
Click to expand...

Your best bet might be for Cornell to rise to #6, which will send #3 Wisconsin to Albany and Denver to finish #2 overall and get St. Paul. Then #7 Bemidji is in their bracket.

2 - Denver
7 - Bemidji
10 - XXXX
15 - Huntsville/AF
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

beaverhockeyfan said:
I believe last year, BSU was the #16 seed and played the #2 seed Notre Dame in the first round.

Basically, what I was saying is that the NCAA is not locked into the 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, 5-13, etc., seedings. There are other factors that come into play as to where teams end up playing.
Click to expand...

2009 NCAA Tournament:

NE Regional (Manchester, NH) #1/#16, #8/#9
#1 Boston U.
#15 Ohio St.
#8 UND
#10 UNH

MW Regional (Grand Rapids, MI) #2/#15, #7/#10
#2 Notre Dame
#16 Bemidji St.
#6 Northeastern
#11 Cornell

W Regional (Minneapolis, MN) #3/#14, #6/#11
#3 Denver
#13 Miami
#7 UMD
#12 Princeton

E Regional (bridgeport, CT) #4/#13, #5/#12
#4 Michigan
#14 Air Force
#5 Yale
#9 Vermont
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Seems like there are some allowances to try keeping regionals as geographically interesting as possible & not strictly sticking to seeding guidelines.
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Woods_187 said:
2009 NCAA Tournament:

NE Regional (Manchester, NH) #1/#16, #8/#9
#1 Boston U.
#15 Ohio St.
#8 UND
#10 UNH

MW Regional (Grand Rapids, MI) #2/#15, #7/#10
#2 Notre Dame
#16 Bemidji St.
#6 Northeastern
#11 Cornell

W Regional (Minneapolis, MN) #3/#14, #6/#11
#3 Denver
#13 Miami
#7 UMD
#12 Princeton

E Regional (bridgeport, CT) #4/#13, #5/#12
#4 Michigan
#14 Air Force
#5 Yale
#9 Vermont
Click to expand...

That was screwed up because both UNH and Yale were hosting, and the committee had to avoid conference pairs (Notre Dame/Ohio State, Miami/Michigan).
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

This has probably been mentioned, but is there a scenario in which UMD gets in?
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

J.D. said:
This has probably been mentioned, but is there a scenario in which UMD gets in?
Click to expand...

CCHA Semifinal #2: Ferris State defeats Northern Michigan
CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Ferris State
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan
ECAC Semifinal #2: St. Lawrence defeats Union
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Brown
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats St. Lawrence
ECAC Consolation game: Brown defeats Union
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Vermont
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University
WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota
WCHA Championship game: Denver defeats St. Cloud State
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats RIT

Edit: The key game is this afternoon's BC/UVM tilt. A BC win seems to put Vermont behind UMD...then it's just a matter of the autobids...and the NMU/Ferris loser must also lose the third place game.
 
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Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Priceless said:
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ferris State defeats Northern Michigan
CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Ferris State
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan
ECAC Semifinal #2: St. Lawrence defeats Union
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Brown
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats St. Lawrence
ECAC Consolation game: Brown defeats Union
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Vermont
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University
WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota
WCHA Championship game: Denver defeats St. Cloud State
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats RIT

Edit: The key game is this afternoon's BC/UVM tilt. A BC win seems to put Vermont behind UMD...then it's just a matter of the autobids...and the NMU/Ferris loser must also lose the third place game.
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Actually the key game is the SH - RIT game. If UVM loses and RIT wins UMD is out and still behind UVM.
 
Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

What is the second tie breaker if two teams are tied have the same RPI.

I managed to get UND, St. Cloud and BC all tied at 4th. However, UND and St. Cloud would have the same RPI at .5562. Any idea on what the next tie-breaker is? Would it be head-to-head, which UND wins in my scenario?
 
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