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Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

N

Numbers

New member
2 weeks left in some regular seasons, so the Conference Playoffs loom, and no thread that I could find yet.

Current PWR gaps:
I'll post this ranking by RPI, since it really is the main feature these days (top of the table notwithstanding)
SCSU and NoDame on top
Denver and Cornell next
Mankato, Ohio State
Clarkson
Minnesota
then everyone else, with no big gaps anywhere.

Significant features in the table:
Minnesota loses the compare to Michigan (which can only flip if they play them in the B10 playoffs) and UMD (which can flip via CommOpp if UMD gets a bad result)
Denver wins the compare with St Cloud by slight margins in CommOpp and H2H in spite of St Cloud having a large lead in RPI. (Whether that is fair or not is another matter)

Practically speaking:
The 4 at the top are very likely the #1 seeds. That means St Cloud goes to Sioux Falls most likely, and whether that's good or bad depends on where NoDak ends up.

Mankato, tOSU, Clarkson probably will be #2s.

The last #2 and the rest of the field is up in the air, although Minnesota has a fairly safe track to the 2/3 band.

Because of non-conference results, the field will skew heavily west. Right now, the field is:
B10:4
NCHC: 6
WCHA: 1 by PWR qualification, NOT a low ranking auto-bid team
ECAC: 2
HE: 2 (neither BC nor BU, of all things)
AHA: Whoever is the auto-bid.

That makes the bracket unusual. Every Eastern team in the field would be within driving range of Allentown, were the field East-heavy. Only Ohio State is, among the western teams. Which means that there is a very real chance of east/west crossovers this time around.

Presently:
Sioux Falls: SCSU (1), Mankato (because of the 5-12 game), NoDak (12), AHA champ (16)
Allentown: Notre Dame (3), OSU (6 - bus, not fly), Omaha or Duluth (10/11), N'Eastern (14 - bus, and NoDame can't play Mich)
East: Denver (2), Prov (8), Minn (9), Michigan (15)
Northeast: Cornell (4), Clarkson (7), Omaha/Duluth (10/11), W Mich (13)

Which gives 8 flights. 9 flights if you swap Clarkson for OSU, which I would do for the sake of mixing the leagues in the regionals, which a committee almost never gets a chance to do like they have this year.

Anyone got input?
 
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Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

With so few projected Eastern teams this year you really want to get Cornell in East-Bridgeport, CT and Providence in Northeast-Worcester for attendance purposes. Opposite of what you have here. Just swap those two entire regionals.
 
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Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

y'all need to look at the big group of nacho teams that risk falling under .500 and thus automatically dropped from the at-large list. they have tough games remaining in the reg season, then 2 may have to travel on the road in the first round and risk 0-2 weekends to cap off their early death.
 
Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

mookie1995 said:
y'all need to look at the big group of nacho teams that risk falling under .500 and thus automatically dropped from the at-large list. they have tough games remaining in the reg season, then 2 may have to travel on the road in the first round and risk 0-2 weekends to cap off their early death.
Click to expand...

Do you mean the old TUC level of over .500 RPI? They got rid of that several years ago. I'm pretty sure an < .500 team still can qualify.
 
Tater said:
Do you mean the old TUC level of over .500 RPI? They got rid of that several years ago. I'm pretty sure an < .500 team still can qualify.
Click to expand...

Teams must have played at least 20 D-1 games and must have a winning percentage over .500

[http://www.uscho.com/faq/ncaa-selection-process
 
Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

Tater said:
Do you mean the old TUC level of over .500 RPI? They got rid of that several years ago. I'm pretty sure an < .500 team still can qualify.
Click to expand...

no.

what they said... :)
 
Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

Tater said:
With so few projected Eastern teams this year you really want to get Cornell in East-Bridgeport, CT and Providence in Northeast-Worcester for attendance purposes. Opposite of what you have here. Just swap those two entire regionals.
Click to expand...

Tater....

I confess. I am a westerner, and to me, all those eastern venues are really close to each other, so I didn't even take a close look where they are being played. Thanks for the details. I appreciate it.

What's more interesting is that the eastern teams, at present, are not big draws, either.

Anyone have any information on the future of the regionals? Hosting on campus discussion, etc?
 
Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

mookie1995 said:
y'all need to look at the big group of nacho teams that risk falling under .500 and thus automatically dropped from the at-large list. they have tough games remaining in the reg season, then 2 may have to travel on the road in the first round and risk 0-2 weekends to cap off their early death.
Click to expand...

If one of the NCHC teams ends up DQ'd on win %, the next 3 teams are still from the west: No Mich, Penn State, Bowling Green. Penn State has the same issue with its win %age. And, one other comment: There will likely be a tourney upset along the way, especially in WCHA, or the eastern leagues, because those leagues have only a small number of current qualifiers.
 
Numbers said:
If one of the NCHC teams ends up DQ'd on win %, the next 3 teams are still from the west: No Mich, Penn State, Bowling Green. Penn State has the same issue with its win %age. And, one other comment: There will likely be a tourney upset along the way, especially in WCHA, or the eastern leagues, because those leagues have only a small number of current qualifiers.
Click to expand...
Hmmmmm.

So? How does “nacho”relate to anything else?
 
Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

And Pennsylvania isn’t west.

Chit, big ten isn’t west.
Maryland and New Jersey are not west
 
Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

I cannot wait to see the Allentown Regional on TV. Are they offering a BOGO deal?
 
Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

mookie1995 said:
Hmmmmm.

So? How does “nacho”relate to anything else?
Click to expand...

It's 'nacho' year if that's what happens to you.

However, in the sense that such an occurrence, which you brought up (and, thanks, btw - good catch) opens more room in the NCAA field, I was commenting on how it might affect the bracket.
 
Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

ericredaxe said:
Based on the Beanpot attendance, Northeastern would pack Worcester if they end up there.
Click to expand...

I don't think the two are necessarily related. The Beanpot thing has been building for 30 years with NU. And they were the favorite going into it. I think people realized this could really be it. I have no doubt they would bring a lot of people to Worcester, it's just a different dynamic. But considering the last two times NU has the made the tourney it's been out west, yes, they would bring a good crowd to Worcester this year.
 
Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

Numbers said:
It's 'nacho' year if that's what happens to you.

However, in the sense that such an occurrence, which you brought up (and, thanks, btw - good catch) opens more room in the NCAA field, I was commenting on how it might affect the bracket.
Click to expand...

gotcha
 
Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

ericredaxe said:
Based on the Beanpot attendance, Northeastern would pack Worcester if they end up there.
Click to expand...

J.D. said:
I don't think the two are necessarily related. The Beanpot thing has been building for 30 years with NU. And they were the favorite going into it. I think people realized this could really be it. I have no doubt they would bring a lot of people to Worcester, it's just a different dynamic. But considering the last two times NU has the made the tourney it's been out west, yes, they would bring a good crowd to Worcester this year.
Click to expand...

Good point. While we give NU props on their Beanpot attendance, for some reason that hasn't translated to good home attendance, only averaging 2,337 per game.
 
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