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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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WeAreNDHockey said:
Texas didn't surpass 2016 vote totals 4 days before the election because so many people who DIDN'T vote for trump were somehow impressed with him enough over the last 4 years to turn out for him this time. Democrats had historic vote totals in the 2018 midterms and won one of the bigger landslide elections of the last 100 years and I find it impossible to believe that what trump has done since then is driving millions of extra trump voters to the polls.
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Yeah it's that reason I'm really interested to see the result in TX. 110% of the previous election having already voted before Election Day is simply not normal. Turnout is so different that old models and assumptions simply won't work. And as you said, the vast majority of that increase is not going to be people who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 and now vote for him, that's ridiculous on its face. I'm not saying it's all Biden votes, but I don't see how it cannot but help him a very very lot.

Going farther, the huge amount of early voting elsewhere encourages me too. It's not like most states got to 50% and then just held there. If that were the case, I could believe it is the same turnout as before, just voting earlier. But when you have 2 states over 100%, another half dozen or so over 90%, and another dozen or two in the upper double digits, that can't just be the same turnout voting earlier. I highly doubt the polls will be ghost towns on Election Day, so there's still more to come in those states. As much as those of us here, and a lot of people nationwide, found ways to vote early, there's still a lot of people who still are used to voting the day of. We're going to see an overall turnout waaaay higher this year.

And it will be interesting to see what that means. It usually does not favor the incumbent. Of course, that doesn't mean we count our chickens, people still need to vote, and get friends and family to vote. And of course they could always fuck with the count other ways. But there are going to be some crazy numbers showing up this week, I don't see how it can be anything else.
 
So Fade what can the poll challengers do exactly? They cant actually challenge any votes right they are just "citizens" there to make sure nothing hinky is going on like shredding ballots and so forth?
 
Rover said:
I was wondering the same thing so I'm glad you tracked it down. How they're returning ballots is important but it needs the historical context.

I believe North Carolina and Wisconsin should report fairly quickly. NC because they're already counting early votes and WI because there's no late ballots allowed. If Chump (and Tillis) lose and he loses WI as well I'm not sure where he makes up those electoral votes.
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As I posted earlier, Dumpie's campaign has identified three routes to 270. All of them go through NC.

Lose that, and he's toast. Lose that and FL, AZ, PA, or any of the states he took in 2016 and he's definitely toast.
 
Hey French Rage I noticed on the electproject website that the "uncounted" ballots dropped to 30 million from 35 but the total votes counted didn't rise accordingly. Either they were thrown out or like some of us thought it might be counting all ballots sent out even if the voter voted by other means.
 
Handyman said:
Hey French Rage I noticed on the electproject website that the "uncounted" ballots dropped to 30 million from 35 but the total votes counted didn't rise accordingly. Either they were thrown out or like some of us thought it might be counting all ballots sent out even if the voter voted by other means.
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Yeah the latest blog of the guy who runs it ran through all of the things that count could mean. It feels like a red herring without better details. Like he mentions Texas is not included in the outstanding mail ballots. He didn't mention CA, though, and they mailed to everyone, and depending on what people do that could really bias that total. I guess the number dropping is still a good thing, but in the end the early vote total seems like the best bellweather.
 
rufus said:
As I posted earlier, Dumpie's campaign has identified three routes to 270. All of them go through NC.

Lose that, and he's toast. Lose that and FL, AZ, PA, or any of the states he took in 2016 and he's definitely toast.
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There was somewhere, I forget where unfortunately, where someone was looking at the voters of each party who had voted early versus yet to vote in NC, and given the early lead in registered D voting early and how I's should break, the R's would need a crazy turnout and a crazy win on the I's and even a lot of D's to look good in NC. I'm not sure of the data the person used, so who knows, we'll see.
 
Handyman said:
So Fade what can the poll challengers do exactly? They cant actually challenge any votes right they are just "citizens" there to make sure nothing hinky is going on like shredding ballots and so forth?
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Basically, they can object to any voter and ask to verify their registration, but must present a valid reason/cause for believing that person cannot vote in that precinct. In theory, they cannot just willy nilly demand to check the registration of every black or brown voter who shows up. The precinct chair has the authority to expel challengers they believe are abusing the process to try and disenfranchise or intimidate voters.

They have more authority than so-called "poll watchers", but not much.

Here's a short primer on what they can and cannot do.
 
French Rage said:
https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-...d-of-election-day/76JRESFLMVEYBGX2J7AAGKABQ4/

GA turnout could be 6 million; in 2016 it was 4.1 million.
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That is why I am still flip flopping on GA. A lot of that difference is Black Voters because of Kemp's shenanigans in 2018.

rufus,

I said last night that if tomorrow night NC is trending the way that the prognosticators have it (very close but trending Biden) we will know Trumps (non litigated) fate pretty early. There is no margin for error for him unless polls are wrong in some blue states that are about to flip. He needs to hold states every loss is killer. If the polls are correct and Michigan and Wisconsin flip back any one loss of the states in play is the end of the line for him. Even if Trump holds FL, TX, GA and NC if Biden takes Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona on top of the rest of the Hillary States Biden wins.

Trump 2016 Total: 304
Michigan: 16 votes
Wisconsin: 10 votes
Arizona: 11 votes

304-37=267

If the state polls are in any way indicative of how things are actually going to play out in most of these states Trump needs some serious ballot burning in a lot of places. If MI and WI are in fact Blue again any loss in the states of PA, NC, OH, FL, GA, TX, AZ means he is crapping his depends and 3am tweeting.
 
Swansong said:
The best analogy I heard for this campaign tour is that of an old legacy band that hasn't released a new album in 15-20 years, but tours every summer on the nostalgia circuit playing their hits to large crowds of fans who aren't interested in any new music - they just want the same songs they've listened to for 30+ years.


Trump is Poison. In every single imaginable way.
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Heh. One of the original members of Poison lives in my neighborhood. I went to a party a few houses down from his place, and the host played Poison for the entire evening with the windows hope hoping to draw him out. No dice, so I still haven't met him. Supposed to be a really nice guy, though.
 
French Rage said:
There was somewhere, I forget where unfortunately, where someone was looking at the voters of each party who had voted early versus yet to vote in NC, and given the early lead in registered D voting early and how I's should break, the R's would need a crazy turnout and a crazy win on the I's and even a lot of D's to look good in NC. I'm not sure of the data the person used, so who knows, we'll see.
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I think I read that too...read similar about Texas except that most likely the turnout would be good enough on election day to offset the gains but they expect it will lead to the flip in 2022 and 2024.
 
Handyman said:
So Fade what can the poll challengers do exactly? They cant actually challenge any votes right they are just "citizens" there to make sure nothing hinky is going on like shredding ballots and so forth?
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https://www.michigan.gov/documents/SOS_ED_2_CHALLENGERS_77017_7.pdf

Michigan has a Challenger and a Watcher. Challengers are politically approved people, one from each party, that are there to challenge eligibility of voters. Watchers are there to observe.
 
LynahFan said:
Heh. One of the original members of Poison lives in my neighborhood. I went to a party a few houses down from his place, and the host played Poison for the entire evening with the windows hope hoping to draw him out. No dice, so I still haven't met him. Supposed to be a really nice guy, though.
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That sounds amazing, except for having to listen to the band all night.
 
So Conservative Twitter spread a picture around of Joe Biden on a plane without a mask pretending he is a fraud o the rules. They didn't even edit the picture well enough for people to not see it was from a Vogue story in 2019. What the hell is this Saved By the Bell? Who is in charge of this crap Screech?
 
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