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95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

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Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we can summarize it as this:

We want any team in the top 8 or so in PWR to win: Quinnipiac, SCSU, UND, BC, Providence, Michigan, Notre Dame, BU.
We want any team ranked in the 9-12 range, playing a bubble team, to win: Yale, Harvard
We want any low ranked team playing a team in the 9-25 range to win: Western Michigan, Brown, Michigan State, Union, Princeton, Ohio State, Army
We want any team that could help our RPI or QWB to win: Yale, Mankato, Bowling Green

We want bubble teams to lose: Cornell, Clarkson, RPI, UNO, Minnesota, Penn State, Lowell, Denver, Robert Morris, Dartmouth, RPI
 
Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

bigblue_dl said:
So, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we can summarize it as this:

We want any team in the top 8 or so in PWR to win: Quinnipiac, SCSU, UND, BC, Providence, Michigan, Notre Dame, BU.
We want any team ranked in the 9-12 range, playing a bubble team, to win: Yale, Harvard
We want any low ranked team playing a team in the 9-25 range to win: Western Michigan, Brown, Michigan State, Union, Princeton, Ohio State, Army
We want any team that could help our RPI or QWB to win: Yale, Mankato, Bowling Green

We want bubble teams to lose: Cornell, Clarkson, RPI, UNO, Minnesota, Penn State, Lowell, Denver, Robert Morris, Dartmouth, RPI
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Yep. However, I think after Union beat Yale last week, they could do the same to Dartmouth. Yale beat them 5-1.
also AF is the hottest team in AH, they might get a split the next week vs RMU, but here's my question. Let's say RMU qualifies as one of the top 16, but not exactly 16, then that opens up the no 16 spot correct?, other than to an auto qualifier, who would have made the tourney anyway, right?
To me the two biggest eastern teams to lose are Cornell, Dartmouth and Lowell. Also I don't think Lowell is playing BC this week.
 
Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

manurespreader said:
Yep. However, I think after Union beat Yale last week, they could do the same to Dartmouth. Yale beat them 5-1.
also AF is the hottest team in AH, they might get a split the next week vs RMU, but here's my question. Let's say RMU qualifies as one of the top 16, but not exactly 16, then that opens up the no 16 spot correct?, other than to an auto qualifier, who would have made the tourney anyway, right?
To me the two biggest eastern teams to lose are Cornell, Dartmouth and Lowell. Also I don't think Lowell is playing BC this week.
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You don't want RMU top 16 for fear that they lose in their conference tournament and the AHA gets 2 teams in...
 
Shirtless Guy said:
You don't want RMU top 16 for fear that they lose in their conference tournament and the AHA gets 2 teams in...
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I haven't ran the scenarios, but unlikely that RMU could lose AHA tournament and still be top 15. They'd need the 15 spot (minimum) to make room for the second AHA team to get the 16 spot.
 
Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

giwan said:
WOW pretty much opposite views and expectations. Gonna be ugly next match.
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There will be some carry-over. Whitten has something to prove. I hope we get them in the playoffs because this has potential.
 
Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

Perky, you may want to look at the box scores for the series versus BGSU and compare them to last weekend. Not the exact same referees. In fact, only one of the officials that worked the BGSU series in the Soo worked last weekend at Tech.
 
Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

Superfly100 said:
+1...

We need UAA in the first round to neutralize some of that sweep for PWR.
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Not necessarily, for PWR, at least. As long as we beat UAA on RPI (easily done), and common opponents (currently winning easily), then we tie them in comparisons 2-2. Ties go to the higher RPI, which is us, so we are winning the UAA comparison. The UAA losses hurt us on common opponent comparisons with other teams, but there are no comparisons currently ahead of us that are impacted by the UAA common opponent (only way common opponent comes in is with a comparison with a team that we've played, and we share UAA as an opponent), and it killed our RPI, but it didn't lose us that particular comparison.
 
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bigblue_dl said:
Not necessarily, for PWR, at least. As long as we beat UAA on RPI (easily done), and common opponents (currently winning easily), then we tie them in comparisons 2-2. Ties go to the higher RPI, which is us, so we are winning the UAA comparison. The UAA losses hurt us on common opponent comparisons with other teams, but there are no comparisons currently ahead of us that are impacted by the UAA common opponent (only way common opponent comes in is with a comparison with a team that we've played, and we share UAA as an opponent), and it killed our RPI, but it didn't lose us that particular comparison.
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How would playing them in the first round and ending the season at 2-2 versus not playing them and ending the season at 0-2 effect our RPI? Does getting to neutral impact it any more than a win against any other team?
 
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Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

Superfly100 said:
How would playing them in the first round and ending the season at 2-2 versus not playing them and ending the season at 0-2 effect our RPI?
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the 0-2 really doesn't mean anything...what Tech needs is to win, assuming a first round playoff sweep, it is hard to say whether there is value in preferring MTU sweep UAA vs UAH, LSSU, UA_.

If I understand things correctly, MTU would prefer to play UAA (not because they are 0-2 vs them), but because they currently have the highest weighted (Weighted Win %/Opp Win %).
That it is not perfect because it includes UAA sweeping MTU, which it would not include normally.
 
Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

bigblue_dl said:
Not necessarily, for PWR, at least. As long as we beat UAA on RPI (easily done), and common opponents (currently winning easily), then we tie them in comparisons 2-2. Ties go to the higher RPI, which is us, so we are winning the UAA comparison. The UAA losses hurt us on common opponent comparisons with other teams, but there are no comparisons currently ahead of us that are impacted by the UAA common opponent (only way common opponent comes in is with a comparison with a team that we've played, and we share UAA as an opponent), and it killed our RPI, but it didn't lose us that particular comparison.
Click to expand...

But won't evening things out raise our overall RPI?
 
Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

stuckinwi said:
But won't evening things out raise our overall RPI?
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Yes, but not because you're evening things up, just because you're wining a game. The value of beating UAA is better than beating Alaska, LSSU, and UAH, but there would be more value in getting to beat NMU or BSU right now (but then the question is can MTU sweep those teams), but are we completely confident MTU can sweep UAA if given the chance again? Since MTU doesn't have a losing record against anyone that has a good record against UAA, those specific losses don't hurt us nearly as bad as first thought. I mean its terrible getting swept and each of those losses individually hurts, but I'm pretty sure there are other losses (specifically against QWB opponents) that hurt more.

Who knows how this will look in 3 weeks.
 
Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

Shirtless Guy said:
Yes, but not because you're evening things up, just because you're wining a game. The value of beating UAA is better than beating Alaska, LSSU, and UAH, but there would be more value in getting to beat NMU or BSU right now (but then the question is can MTU sweep those teams), but are we completely confident MTU can sweep UAA if given the chance again? Since MTU doesn't have a losing record against anyone that has a good record against UAA, those specific losses don't hurt us nearly as bad as first thought. I mean its terrible getting swept and each of those losses individually hurts, but I'm pretty sure there are other losses (specifically against QWB opponents) that hurt more.

Who knows how this will look in 3 weeks.
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I don't study the rankings but I would assume the horrible WCHA non conference record hurts the most.
 
Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

stuckinwi said:
But won't evening things out raise our overall RPI?
Click to expand...

I'd actually prefer to not play UAA in the first round. Because, as Shirtless said, it doesn't give us much of a benefit, if any, compared to playing UAH, UA, LSSU, etc. But what it does do is open us up to actually losing that comparison against UAA if we win that first round series 2-1.
 
Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

eye4talent said:
I don't study the rankings but I would assume the horrible WCHA non conference record hurts the most.
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Well I am trying to specifically talk about things that were in MTU's control.
And actually, the problem isn't the WCHA's horrible NC record, its that too many of their games were concentrated on the NCHC.
WCHA is 27-33-9 in NC and 4-18-2 vs NCHC, so remove that and they are actually pretty good 23-15-7 against everyone else. That is actually the best record of any conference in interconference matchups against teams not from the NCHC.
 
Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

Shirtless Guy said:
Well I am trying to specifically talk about things that were in MTU's control.
And actually, the problem isn't the WCHA's horrible NC record, its that too many of their games were concentrated on the NCHC.
WCHA is 27-33-9 in NC and 4-18-2 vs NCHC, so remove that and they are actually pretty good 23-15-7 against everyone else. That is actually the best record of any conference in interconference matchups against teams not from the NCHC.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but because of that doesn't it mean that the Bemidji vs Duluth game and the upcoming Miami vs BGSU games are much more important to us?
Also it appears to me that BGSU winning this week would move them much, much closer to an at large bid, and actually back in the hunt.
 
Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

manurespreader said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but because of that doesn't it mean that the Bemidji vs Duluth game and the upcoming Miami vs BGSU games are much more important to us?
Also it appears to me that BGSU winning this week would move them much, much closer to an at large bid, and actually back in the hunt.
Click to expand...
that Miami BGSU game is huge for MTU, BGSU and MSU
 
Re: 95th Season of Hockey- Michigan Tech Huskies 2015-2016 - Thread #1

Went to see Jackson Cates and Stillwater play tonight...ran into Pearson...I'd have to say that Jackson, his younger brother, Noah and Wyatt Newpower (tall d-man for WBL) were the best players on the ice but they certainly weren't far superior compared to a player like Jake Jackson or Riley Tufte (committed to UMD) were when I saw them play HS. Both bigblue and I pulled out our phones to figure out who Tufte was and if he was committed yet. It doesn't help that Stillwater appears to be a very deep team and WBL is rather defensive oriented.
I do like Cates, looked pretty good on faceoffs and wasn't afraid to backcheck and play both ends of the ice...thats always nice to see at this level.
 
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