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5 dollar gas...are we ready?

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Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Isn't oil and coal stored solar?

Not exactly, given you need a catalyst in order to effectively use the oil/coal, and this is typically done by means of combustion, especially given how our power plant generators or internal combustion engines work, at least in the case of fossil fuels. I'm not a car guy so I don't know the ins and outs of engines, but I'm sure there's someone here who does.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Isn't oil and coal stored solar?

Yes, but over the timespan of millions of years. In the past 100, we have consumed what took nature a long time to produce.

Sweet, there's another one. I was beginning to worry that this board was filled to the brim with people who only know concept and do not know execution.

Please read my last post - I gave biofuels a legitimate chance. Probably more so as an individual than anyone on USCHO. When I saw the writing on the walls ( read math), I changed my profession to the one I see promise in - nuclear power. I'd love to se algae technologies do well, I just don't see it happening.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

For me, the bottom line is that if the best alternatives we can come up with are solar based (whether that means PV cells, wind, or biofuel) then human civilization as we know it will cease to exist. Solar-based energy collectors will NEVER be able to produce energy at the rate (i.e. at the power) that human civilization currently consumes it. This is an objective fact. Saying, "but we have to do something!" is like investing effort into throwing teaspoons of water on the Chicago fire. We. Will. Not. Get. There. regardless of how soon we start investing or how much we invest. You cannot invest your way around, over, or through the laws of physics.


I just love how people KNOW exactly what is going to happen in the future. I feel sad that you apparently live in such a pessimistic and narrow view of the world.

Alternative energy efforts are an uphill battle that I cannot foresee exactly what will happen in the future but I think that the efforts are worth the time. If nothing else it helps alleviate the increase of fossil fuel needs even if it is a small amount. They are, much like increasing mpg in cars or any other saving measure or even nuclear, part of a solution.

Another very helpful solution to our energy problems, it is a reduction in the human population. Nobody wants to hear it because they all think their offspring are the best thing ever!!!

We (humans) would be much better off if people would work for several solutions instead of being naysayers to everything except what they think is best.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Please read my last post - I gave biofuels a legitimate chance. Probably more so as an individual than anyone on USCHO. When I saw the writing on the walls ( read math), I changed my profession to the one I see promise in - nuclear power. I'd love to se algae technologies do well, I just don't see it happening.

You had a concept to solve a problem, and looked into its execution. You saw that the execution is not viable to solving the problem, so you decided to go another path. Congratulations, you've done the one thing that should be taught to every child in every school regarding every thought and dream that he/she may have.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

For me, the bottom line is that if the best alternatives we can come up with are solar based (whether that means PV cells, wind, or biofuel) then human civilization as we know it will cease to exist. Solar-based energy collectors will NEVER be able to produce energy at the rate (i.e. at the power) that human civilization currently consumes it. This is an objective fact. Saying, "but we have to do something!" is like investing effort into throwing teaspoons of water on the Chicago fire. We. Will. Not. Get. There. regardless of how soon we start investing or how much we invest. You cannot invest your way around, over, or through the laws of physics.

We have two choices:

1. Accept that in 100 years we will not have an energy supply capable of producing the 16 million MW that a modern, civilized population of 7 billion people consumes. Either the population or our lifestyle (and likely both) will experience a massive decline as society adjusts to getting by on the meager scraps provided by solar-based energy.

2. Invest in non-solar based alternative energy (nuclear/fusion) and hope for a breakthrough that keeps us away from option #1.

That's it. It's not pleasant to contemplate, but trying to paper over this choice by dreaming that biofuel, solar, and wind can solve the problem is wishful thinking and willful ignorance of reality.

I disagree on 2 points:

1.) I don't think that it is impossible for solar energy to provide a significant fraction of human energy needs. I understand the scale of the problem and recognize the geographic constraints. I don't accept that saying that it will be hard and can't meet all of societies demand automatically means that the entire idea needs to be tossed on the scrap pile.

2.) Society will have to adjust to increased prices long before the supply of fossil fuels runs out (which will never run out completely, but just won't be able to meet demand). I have faith that humanity will be able to adjust to a lower energy intensity economy (or course that doesn't mean that it won't be painful, just not a catastrophic collapse). Of course, it's doubtful that the Earth's population carrying capacity under such a situation will be anywhere near what it is today and population will HAVE to fall, perhaps significantly (20% or more).
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I disagree on 2 points:

1.) I don't think that it is impossible for solar energy to provide a significant fraction of human energy needs. I understand the scale of the problem and recognize the geographic constraints. I don't accept that saying that it will be hard and can't meet all of societies demand automatically means that the entire idea needs to be tossed on the scrap pile.

Let's start with the scale of your house or apartment building. How much energy is needed? Longball it, because then people will complain about outages. If it's an apartment building, multiply your number by the number of apartments for the sake of argument. Obviously, the energy needed has to be produced. Given today's status of solar technology, how much space is needed to create the power you need? Include panels, cells to hold the power generated for evenings, and everything else involved in the process.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Let's start with the scale of your house or apartment building. How much energy is needed? Longball it, because then people will complain about outages. If it's an apartment building, multiply your number by the number of apartments for the sake of argument. Obviously, the energy needed has to be produced. Given today's status of solar technology, how much space is needed to create the power you need? Include panels, cells to hold the power generated for evenings, and everything else involved in the process.

What's your point? My point is that generating some fraction of energy demand from a technology is better than generating 0% because that technology was rejected since it can't generate 100% of current demand. Every new technology can become one slice of the pie that can help replace current technology.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Solar can help offset energy needs, no doubt. It might take some lifestyle changes though. I have a solar hotwater, I want my hot water to run out every morning so that I have the lowest temp possible in my tank so whatever sun I get that day will help regenerate the tank. My wife might not get a hot shower if she is the last to get into the bathroom, think she likes that? :).
My shop was built to be heated by solar, does it meets 100% of its heating needs, no but I've never seen it fall below 46 degrees. The thing is I built it to work on solar, its tight and heavily insulated. You can't have a huge heating load and expect to use solar to keep you at 72. I think in my shop if I doubled the collector size I could 75% of my needs. Doable for sure but maybe not cost effective. I built my own collector using this site as a gude www.builditsolar.com
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I just love how people KNOW exactly what is going to happen in the future. I feel sad that you apparently live in such a pessimistic and narrow view of the world.
My predictions of the future are limited only to things that rely on the immutable laws of physics. No amount of "feeling" or "sadness" will ever get the efficiency of a solar collector above 100% - I don't know much about the future, but I do know that conservation of energy will still hold.

Alternative energy efforts are an uphill battle that I cannot foresee exactly what will happen in the future but I think that the efforts are worth the time. If nothing else it helps alleviate the increase of fossil fuel needs even if it is a small amount. They are, much like increasing mpg in cars or any other saving measure or even nuclear, part of a solution. (rearrangement) We (humans) would be much better off if people would work for several solutions instead of being naysayers to everything except what they think is best.
Only if we come to an agreement about what the term "solution" means. In my "doomsday" scenario, we don't really find an effective replacement for fossil fuel and we scrape by on what we can collect from the sun. If we go down that path, then yes, absolutely many different forms of solar energy can be part of the solution, where "solution" is defined as getting the total power production up to about 10% of the total that we have today. If, however, in your mind you're thinking of "solution" as a true replacement for fossil fuels, then I absolutely disagree that any combination of solar-based power options will ever get us there. That would be like arguing that by stitching together 10 handkerchiefs in just the right way, we'd be able to blanket an elephant.

Another very helpful solution to our energy problems, it is a reduction in the human population. Nobody wants to hear it because they all think their offspring are the best thing ever!!!
Absolutely - also, they think the sex they have is the best thing ever! :)

I disagree on 2 points:

1.) I don't think that it is impossible for solar energy to provide a significant fraction of human energy needs. I understand the scale of the problem and recognize the geographic constraints. I don't accept that saying that it will be hard and can't meet all of societies demand automatically means that the entire idea needs to be tossed on the scrap pile.
See above rant about the "solution" but substitute "needs." Solar can become (and, in fact, will become if we don't find a nuclear/fusion solution) a significant slice of the human energy production pie - but only because the pie itself is shrinking down to a shell of its former self.

2.) Society will have to adjust to increased prices long before the supply of fossil fuels runs out (which will never run out completely, but just won't be able to meet demand). I have faith that humanity will be able to adjust to a lower energy intensity economy (or course that doesn't mean that it won't be painful, just not a catastrophic collapse). Of course, it's doubtful that the Earth's population carrying capacity under such a situation will be anywhere near what it is today and population will HAVE to fall, perhaps significantly (20% or more).
I agree with this, but I don't think it really clashes with my previous statements. The price of energy will continually, gradually rise as fossil fuel becomes scarcer, and society's use of energy will be constantly adjusting in response. I don't really predict a rapid, catastrophic collapse - I'm just comparing snapshots in my head of what society will look like in 100 years vs. today if we don't find a non-solar replacement for fossil fuel. That doesn't mean I think we'll be fine for 99 years and then fall off the cliff. Regardless of how we get there, I do think that is where we are heading unless we find a non-solar energy source.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

My predictions of the future are limited only to things that rely on the immutable laws of physics. No amount of "feeling" or "sadness" will ever get the efficiency of a solar collector above 100% - I don't know much about the future, but I do know that conservation of energy will still hold.

Only if we come to an agreement about what the term "solution" means. In my "doomsday" scenario, we don't really find an effective replacement for fossil fuel and we scrape by on what we can collect from the sun. If we go down that path, then yes, absolutely many different forms of solar energy can be part of the solution, where "solution" is defined as getting the total power production up to about 10% of the total that we have today. If, however, in your mind you're thinking of "solution" as a true replacement for fossil fuels, then I absolutely disagree that any combination of solar-based power options will ever get us there. That would be like arguing that by stitching together 10 handkerchiefs in just the right way, we'd be able to blanket an elephant.

That doesn't mean I think we'll be fine for 99 years and then fall off the cliff. Regardless of how we get there, I do think that is where we are heading unless we find a non-solar energy source.

Thank you for all your thoughtful and informed responses to this whole topic. I fully agree with your evaluation of the science, I guess that I just have a little more faith (likely misplaced) in the ability of humanity to adapt and adjust to changing circumstances.

Currently, about 8% of total electricity is produced through renewable resources, you don't believe that it would be possible to get that up to about 1/3 of the total give time and increasing cost of fossil fuels?

I wonder what fraction of our energy use is the result of how inexpensive it is, and how much more efficiently it would be used if it was at a higher price. Is it possible to shift, over time, to a less energy intensive economy without massive drops in our quality of life? I guess that is the real underlying question.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Thank you for all your thoughtful and informed responses to this whole topic. I fully agree with your evaluation of the science, I guess that I just have a little more faith (likely misplaced) in the ability of humanity to adapt and adjust to changing circumstances.

Currently, about 8% of total electricity is produced through renewable resources, you don't believe that it would be possible to get that up to about 1/3 of the total give time and increasing cost of fossil fuels?

I wonder what fraction of our energy use is the result of how inexpensive it is, and how much more efficiently it would be used if it was at a higher price. Is it possible to shift, over time, to a less energy intensive economy without massive drops in our quality of life? I guess that is the real underlying question.
I could be convinced that 1/3 of today's production could be a reasonable target. Given that as the end point, you are absolutely onto the right question: how do we get there with as little human suffering as possible along the way?
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

What's your point? My point is that generating some fraction of energy demand from a technology is better than generating 0% because that technology was rejected since it can't generate 100% of current demand. Every new technology can become one slice of the pie that can help replace current technology.

My point is, where do you think it'll work, and in what quantity? For a single house, I think it's entirely possible. To service a population that is somewhat dense doesn't seem feasible. I don't know how well that will fly because of a government's thought of need for a grid, and I believe that stems around the fact that by law, landlords are required to provide access to electric, gas, water, heating oil (at least in the east, likely heating gas in the west), and sewage, so they want the infrastructure in place instead of depending on single households for solar panels.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

My point is, where do you think it'll work, and in what quantity? For a single house, I think it's entirely possible. To service a population that is somewhat dense doesn't seem feasible.
Agree - and you have to be precise when thinking about the true household energy needs. If we all moved into low-density single family homes, the energy needed to build and maintain those homes needs to be factored in - not just the day-to-day reading on the electric meters. Also, you have include the energy needed to transport people and goods to and from all those low density residences to high density gathering points (schools, businesses, government offices, stores). It does no good to have an off-the-grid "self sustaining" house in the suburbs if you can't afford to drive to work or to shop.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

My point is, where do you think it'll work, and in what quantity? For a single house, I think it's entirely possible. To service a population that is somewhat dense doesn't seem feasible. I don't know how well that will fly because of a government's thought of need for a grid, and I believe that stems around the fact that by law, landlords are required to provide access to electric, gas, water, heating oil (at least in the east, likely heating gas in the west), and sewage, so they want the infrastructure in place instead of depending on single households for solar panels.

My point is that it isn't going to be a one-size-fits-all solution. Geography is going to dictate what will and won't work in different locations.

Nothing that prevents having both solar panels AND being connected to the overall electrical grid. In fact, the ONLY real way to make solar work in any effective way is to have a interconnected grid of diffused sources to transfer energy from a region of surplus to a region with an energy deficit (efficient and effective long term storage is the other major hurdle). The current system is set up with centralized power production locations, it does not have to be that way (and given the surface areas need to provided even 25% of our energy needs via solar that just isn't going to work.)
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Agree - and you have to be precise when thinking about the true household energy needs. If we all moved into low-density single family homes, the energy needed to build and maintain those homes needs to be factored in - not just the day-to-day reading on the electric meters. Also, you have include the energy needed to transport people and goods to and from all those low density residences to high density gathering points (schools, businesses, government offices, stores). It does no good to have an off-the-grid "self sustaining" house in the suburbs if you can't afford to drive to work or to shop.

You are absolutely correct. I think it just goes to prove my point about execution.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Another very helpful solution to our energy problems, it is a reduction in the human population. Nobody wants to hear it because they all think their offspring are the best thing ever!!!

unfortunately our economy (and social programs like Medicare and Social Security) is a pyramid scheme and collapses without growth
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Gas was $3.49 at my local place this morning.

What ever happened to the thread title? :p
 
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