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5 dollar gas...are we ready?

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Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

lets see how much I remember:

Microalgae indeed possess the best potential from a liquid biofuel alternative when compared to other forms like corn, switchgrass and the like. I believe the enthalpy (??) for an algae fuel is closer to that of traditional gasoline than corn ethanol which is approximately one third. This means you get one third the energy released if you use corn based ethanol vs gasoline. Algae on the other hand *can* produce sufficient energy to run larger engines, even jets.

There are two schools of thought on the cultivation side, both with huge downsides. The first is the cheaper proposition and that is to grow algae in large open ponds and harvest the algae. The downsides are you have less control of the species and fatty acid content, and are suseptable to invaders making an additional step to remove impurities. The second proposition is costly and that is photobioreactors, or tanks. You have more control of nutrients and algae biology. One group , I think solazyme, grows algae hetrotrophically which means they use a sugar based feedstock to grow their algae.

The problem of biology is what companies like synthetic genomics are working on. Anyone can grow algae in their backyard, but the oil content is important since this is what you need to extract to get usable fuel. When I did our experiments for total fatty acids or TFA, our results showed that some strains got maybe 30% TFA, and still others got as low as 5%. Granted there are millions of strains out there, we looked at a small cross section and noticed large variations in growth and TFA.

John Benemen is considered by many to be to algae as admiral rickover was to the nuclear navy program. We met with him in 2010 at the san diego conference regarding this topic and proposed our idea to which he agreed was the only possible viable method going forward. Someone already mentioned it here - to use waste streams to produce algae. Algae can quickly sequester pollutants including nitrates and carbon dioxide. We found that only up to 6% of carbon by volume to be consumed.

Here is the bottom line. Our consumption for oil based fuels is massive. There will be *no* replacing it outright with any technology. As mentioned, one would need vast amounts of land dedicated to the cause. For algae, the space would be smaller than that of ethanol, but it would still be significant. The second big thing is that you need the process to be a net energy producer, not consumer. The entire product lifecycle must somehow yield more energy than it consumes. Oil is approaching a ratio of approximately 1 barrel/2 barrels ( use one barrel to produce two barrels) for ones like the tar sands. Im not sure what the best algae systems are capable of. I think corn ethanol is a net energy loser.

Will the technology be viable? Not sure. As already mentioned, we'd need the state of the art technologies synergistically working together to pull it off. It would be cool for sure.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

lets see how much I remember:

Microalgae indeed possess the best potential from a liquid biofuel alternative when compared to other forms like corn, switchgrass and the like. I believe the enthalpy (??) for an algae fuel is closer to that of traditional gasoline than corn ethanol which is approximately one third. This means you get one third the energy released if you use corn based ethanol vs gasoline. Algae on the other hand *can* produce sufficient energy to run larger engines, even jets.

Um, if the algae are producing ethanol, then no. Ethanol is ethanol. The enthalpy of combustion will be the same regardless of the source. If they are producing some other chemical, then we can go from there. But if it's ethanol, no.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

You're right. I was off by a factor of 5.3 - too LOW: The United States Department of Energy estimates that if algae fuel replaced all the petroleum fuel in the United States, it would require 15,000 square miles

Only compared to other biofuels. It is way better than the others, so people focus on its relative merits while losing sight of the big picture, which is that it is far from being a viable replacement for oil.

You're using wikipedia as your backing for an argument. I expect better. ;) Seriously, so, what, oil isn't going to last forever. This is true to a point. But what do you suggest. Giving up? Keep drilling for more oil and ruining the environment more and more? What are people going to do in 25 years for a fuel source? Or are we going to have some other replacement? I understand what you are getting at I just think your arguments against pursuing it are short sighted.

For it to become even a measurable percentage of the market such that it could have any effect on price, it has to be cost-competitive with oil. Either it is (in which case there's no reason it couldn't become a complete replacement) or it isn't (in which case it will never grow beyond a novelty niche market).

True enough. However as oil gets more and more expensive, and it's going to, any alternative energy source become more and more viable from a simply economic standpoint.

Good luck harvesting it from the actual ocean rather than captive tanks. The problem isn't the total amount of solar energy captured by algae or other plants - the problem is that it is so diffuse that collecting it makes it cost-prohibitive.

University of Hawaii is currently (or was as of about a year ago) working on harvesting ocean algae for biofuel. I admit I haven't kept up on their progress or lack of. The company I use to work for, Pall Corporation, was working on the exact problem of concentrating algae up to viable harvesting levels with good success. At the pace they were work on and progress being made I would think one way or another they would know if it was viable in another year or two at the most. I would like to divulge more but it would break my confidentially.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

You're using wikipedia as your backing for an argument. I expect better. ;) Seriously, so, what, oil isn't going to last forever. This is true to a point. But what do you suggest. Giving up? Keep drilling for more oil and ruining the environment more and more? What are people going to do in 25 years for a fuel source? Or are we going to have some other replacement? I understand what you are getting at I just think your arguments against pursuing it are short sighted.

It's better than your suggestion of destroying an entire country's economy for the sake of 3 polar bears. You want to look at alternative energy? That's cool. We (the market) will decide if the executed concept is a good buy or not.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

It's better than your suggestion of destroying an entire country's economy for the sake of 3 polar bears. You want to look at alternative energy? That's cool. We (the market) will decide if the executed concept is a good buy or not.

Here's the problem with this kind of argument:

Peak oil is somewhere between 25-75 years from now. We have no idea when. It takes 10 years to build a refinery, 10-15 years for a nuke plant (peak uranium is somewhere around 50 years from now), and 25+ for a new type of energy. This doesn't even include the infrastructure to distribute this new energy source. Or the technology to adapt our transportation to this new type of energy.

If we don't force the issue, progress will never be made. Period. We aren't going to switch from oil to a new single source of energy. It's going to be a combination of solar, non-corn ethanol (or other biofuel), and eventually nuclear fusion. If we weren't investing in these now, we're going to be in an assload of trouble later.

Oil, coal, etc. will, at least for the next 20 years, be the cheapest energy source. If we let the markets play chicken with the energy supply, they're going to drive us right to the cliff's edge before even contemplating the brakes.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Here's the problem with this kind of argument:

Peak oil is somewhere between 25-75 years from now. We have no idea when. It takes 10 years to build a refinery, 10-15 years for a nuke plant (peak uranium is somewhere around 50 years from now), and 25+ for a new type of energy. This doesn't even include the infrastructure to distribute this new energy source. Or the technology to adapt our transportation to this new type of energy.

If we don't force the issue, progress will never be made. Period. We aren't going to switch from oil to a new single source of energy. It's going to be a combination of solar, non-corn ethanol (or other biofuel), and eventually nuclear fusion. If we weren't investing in these now, we're going to be in an assload of trouble later.

Oil, coal, etc. will, at least for the next 20 years, be the cheapest energy source. If we let the markets play chicken with the energy supply, they're going to drive us right to the cliff's edge before even contemplating the brakes.

Both situations you describe result in the same thing: the country becoming dead. Without energy, ANY society fails. Even if it's a bunch of nomads in the wilderness, if you don't have fire, you do not live. It makes MUCH more sense to keep ourselves growing with the resources that we have AND start to develop the energy sources rather than eliminate even the opportunity to discover an energy source because we don't have the energy to discover it.

I swear, environmentalist hippies know NOTHING about execution.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Both situations you describe result in the same thing: the country becoming dead. Without energy, ANY society fails. Even if it's a bunch of nomads in the wilderness, if you don't have fire, you do not live. It makes MUCH more sense to keep ourselves growing with the resources that we have AND start to develop the energy sources rather than eliminate even the opportunity to discover an energy source because we don't have the energy to discover it.

I swear, environmentalist hippies know NOTHING about execution.

This is the least informed post I have ever seen on the topic. Ever.

If you think I'm an environmentalist hippie, this conversation is over because you just don't have a weak grasp on reality.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

This is the least informed post I have ever seen on the topic. Ever.

If you think I'm an environmentalist hippie, this conversation is over because you just don't have a weak grasp on reality.

And yet you're so knowledgeable of these things, oh prince of concept yet pauper of execution?

You know what, enough with the trading of insults, I want you to put your money where your mouth is. Put together a concept of alternative energy, including numbers. Actual process, joule rate, joule cost, and space cost. Make sure it is as efficient, if not more efficient, than what is currently in place. If you're able to do that, even I would put funding towards it.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

And yet you're so knowledgeable of these things, oh prince of concept yet pauper of execution?

You know what, enough with the trading of insults, I want you to put your money where your mouth is. Put together a concept of alternative energy, including numbers. Actual process, joule rate, joule cost, and space cost. Make sure it is as efficient, if not more efficient, than what is currently in place. If you're able to do that, even I would put funding towards it.

Yep. Conversation's over. For the obvious reasons.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Both situations you describe result in the same thing: the country becoming dead. Without energy, ANY society fails. Even if it's a bunch of nomads in the wilderness, if you don't have fire, you do not live. It makes MUCH more sense to keep ourselves growing with the resources that we have AND start to develop the energy sources rather than eliminate even the opportunity to discover an energy source because we don't have the energy to discover it.

I swear, environmentalist hippies know NOTHING about execution.

Given our current energy usage and the finite amount of fossil fuels that exists, humanity will have to develop energy sources that will satisfy future demand that we can't just dig or pump out of the ground. That's not being an environmentalist, that's being a realist.

By most objective measures, humanity has consumed about half the known and projected unknown conventional petroleum reserves (corrected for OPEC reserves inflation). We can drill all we want now, and it will help in the short term, but it's not going to change the long term trend (and may make the crash at the end worse when supply is unable to keep up with demand).

Coal, natural gas fracking, and non-conventional petrolium products will all extend the period that society will be able to rely on relatively cheap energy, eventual those will become more scarce and prices will rise in response.

That is why it is CRITICAL that we, as a society, invest in alternative energy research today even if the results may not be economically viable or even necessary for decades into the future. But the billions that we spend now and the time that we have to critically evaluate results and develop and test options will pay dividends when we don't have to spend trillions on a crash research project during a time of crisis to rush out inefficient and untested (if not completely ineffective) equipment.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Given our current energy usage and the finite amount of fossil fuels that exists, humanity will have to develop energy sources that will satisfy future demand that we can't just dig or pump out of the ground. That's not being an environmentalist, that's being a realist.

By most objective measures, humanity has consumed about half the known and projected unknown conventional petroleum reserves (corrected for OPEC reserves inflation). We can drill all we want now, and it will help in the short term, but it's not going to change the long term trend (and may make the crash at the end worse when supply is unable to keep up with demand).

Coal, natural gas fracking, and non-conventional petrolium products will all extend the period that society will be able to rely on relatively cheap energy, eventual those will become more scarce and prices will rise in response.

That is why it is CRITICAL that we, as a society, invest in alternative energy research today even if the results may not be economically viable or even necessary for decades into the future. But the billions that we spend now and the time that we have to critically evaluate results and develop and test options will pay dividends when we don't have to spend trillions on a crash research project during a time of crisis to rush out inefficient and untested (if not completely ineffective) equipment.

Look, I'm not doubting your thoughts about finite resources. What I'm saying is that it's incredibly stupid to disallow the energy sources we already have in order to get there. I know that resources can be limited, I buy shares of oil trusts, and know full well they don't last forever. However, it doesn't mean we should completely give up on fossil fuels, because there still is a short-term demand for it. Let's fulfill the energy needs that the country has now, and THEN start looking at the alternatives. Also, we need to make sure that, if we want to get to alternative energy, it must be as viable as what we have now. I'm not speaking from a standpoint of monetary cost, because demands can change. I'm speaking from a standpoint of having enough output from the energy we discover and harness to cover our needs. This is why solar doesn't work, because it requires space the size of Delaware, as LF previously showed. Natural gas is viable, given the research that has been going into it, and not to mention there are many communities, including DeKalb County of Illinois through the use of refuse, that are already putting it into place. I'm still worried about the energy output in that it may not be enough to cover the country's full needs, but it's a start.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

It's better than your suggestion of destroying an entire country's economy for the sake of 3 polar bears. You want to look at alternative energy? That's cool. We (the market) will decide if the executed concept is a good buy or not.

Where the **** did you get that I suggested I destroy the entire country's economy? Do you even read people's posts or do you just skim over them and jump to some half assed conclusion based upon your own bias??? :rolleyes:
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Here's the problem with this kind of argument:

Peak oil is somewhere between 25-75 years from now. We have no idea when. It takes 10 years to build a refinery, 10-15 years for a nuke plant (peak uranium is somewhere around 50 years from now), and 25+ for a new type of energy. This doesn't even include the infrastructure to distribute this new energy source. Or the technology to adapt our transportation to this new type of energy.

If we don't force the issue, progress will never be made. Period. We aren't going to switch from oil to a new single source of energy. It's going to be a combination of solar, non-corn ethanol (or other biofuel), and eventually nuclear fusion. If we weren't investing in these now, we're going to be in an assload of trouble later.

Oil, coal, etc. will, at least for the next 20 years, be the cheapest energy source. If we let the markets play chicken with the energy supply, they're going to drive us right to the cliff's edge before even contemplating the brakes.
For me, the bottom line is that if the best alternatives we can come up with are solar based (whether that means PV cells, wind, or biofuel) then human civilization as we know it will cease to exist. Solar-based energy collectors will NEVER be able to produce energy at the rate (i.e. at the power) that human civilization currently consumes it. This is an objective fact. Saying, "but we have to do something!" is like investing effort into throwing teaspoons of water on the Chicago fire. We. Will. Not. Get. There. regardless of how soon we start investing or how much we invest. You cannot invest your way around, over, or through the laws of physics.

We have two choices:

1. Accept that in 100 years we will not have an energy supply capable of producing the 16 million MW that a modern, civilized population of 7 billion people consumes. Either the population or our lifestyle (and likely both) will experience a massive decline as society adjusts to getting by on the meager scraps provided by solar-based energy.

2. Invest in non-solar based alternative energy (nuclear/fusion) and hope for a breakthrough that keeps us away from option #1.

That's it. It's not pleasant to contemplate, but trying to paper over this choice by dreaming that biofuel, solar, and wind can solve the problem is wishful thinking and willful ignorance of reality.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

For me, the bottom line is that if the best alternatives we can come up with are solar based (whether that means PV cells, wind, or biofuel) then human civilization as we know it will cease to exist. Solar-based energy collectors will NEVER be able to produce energy at the rate (i.e. at the power) that human civilization currently consumes it. This is an objective fact. Saying, "but we have to do something!" is like investing effort into throwing teaspoons of water on the Chicago fire. We. Will. Not. Get. There. regardless of how soon we start investing or how much we invest. You cannot invest your way around, over, or through the laws of physics.

We have two choices:

1. Accept that in 100 years we will not have an energy supply capable of producing the 16 million MW that a modern, civilized population of 7 billion people consumes. Either the population or our lifestyle (and likely both) will experience a massive decline as society adjusts to getting by on the meager scraps provided by solar-based energy.

2. Invest in non-solar based alternative energy (nuclear/fusion) and hope for a breakthrough that keeps us away from option #1.

That's it. It's not pleasant to contemplate, but trying to paper over this choice by dreaming that biofuel, solar, and wind can solve the problem is wishful thinking and willful ignorance of reality.

Wow. I thought I was the chief pessimist around here.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Wow. I thought I was the chief pessimist around here.

Chief realist would be a better way to describe it. Us engineers get pegged as pessimists frequently, yet it is because of people like us that we have planes, roads and other marvels. If it was up to the dreamers, we would all live forever on rocketships powered by love and rainbows. Its easy to wish something into existence and than go blame other people for said thing not becoming reality - engineers tend to accept these pitfalls as a matter of fact and divorce emotional ties to the concept.

However I could be wrong. It was the exalted Jefferson starship who built an entire city on rock and roll. ;)
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Wow. I thought I was the chief pessimist around here.

Chief realist would be a better way to describe it. Us engineers get pegged as pessimists frequently, yet it is because of people like us that we have planes, roads and other marvels. If it was up to the dreamers, we would all live forever on rocketships powered by love and rainbows. Its easy to wish something into existence and than go blame other people for said thing not becoming reality - engineers tend to accept these pitfalls as a matter of fact and divorce emotional ties to the concept.

However I could be wrong. It was the exalted Jefferson starship who built an entire city on rock and roll. ;)

Sweet, there's another one. I was beginning to worry that this board was filled to the brim with people who only know concept and do not know execution.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Wow. I thought I was the chief pessimist around here.
Pessimism? its really simple math. Modern society runs on energy, oil has alot, solar doesn't. All bio fuels are solar, simple math.
 
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